Comments on: Rays could emerge as front-runners for Justin Upton

By: buddaley

buddaley — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 14:46:34 +0000

I think you two are talking about 2 different things. It is almost certainly true that Upton has not lived up to expectations. For that he would have had to have at least a 6 WAR.

On the other hand, there is a difference between not living up to one’s promise and underachieving. Perhaps the expectations-or sense of his promise-were overblown. It is also true that Upton has been a 4.1-5 WAR player in four of the past six years according to FanGraphs. (BB-Ref has been less generous.) That is good. Not great. Not the stuff of a superstar, but still a useful player who achieves enough to be a key member of a contending team. To say he underachieves tells us more about fan expectations than about Upton’s performance.

Relative to his salary, he has been a bargain for the Rays.

By: bigmeechy74

bigmeechy74 — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 19:53:57 +0000

If you really think BJ Upton lived up to all his promise than you are literally the only person on earth that thinks that. So congrats on being unique at least.

By: leeeroooyjeeenkiiins

leeeroooyjeeenkiiins — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 19:38:20 +0000

None of this means anything at all, because the Rays aren’t going to be paying a guy 14 mil. Period. I didn’t say this would be a bad trade in general, it would just be bad for the Rays because if they made it they’d have to find a way to deal him after this season. 14 million is simply not in their budget.

By: papacrick

papacrick — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 13:33:10 +0000

He’s gonna look real nice batting between Austin Jackson and Miggy in the two hole next year. It doesn’t matter how much Brennan Boesch sucks when the first five in your order goes Jackson, Upton, Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez

By: dan1111

dan1111 — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 10:25:16 +0000

Upton is under team control for 3 years, while Shields is only signed for two years (including a team option). Which one is more of a “rental”?

Also, I think you are seriously overvaluing Shields. He only has a 107 ERA+ overall. Only one season out of the last four has been truly great.

The D-Backs would be getting a 31-year-old, solid-but-not-great pitcher. Upton, on the other hand, is still a couple of years away from his prime. He has been a good to very good player for five years, and many people believe his ceiling is far higher than what he has shown so far.

I doubt that the D-Backs would even consider a straight up trade of the two, but if they do, the Rays should jump at the chance.

By: leeeroooyjeeenkiiins

leeeroooyjeeenkiiins — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 05:43:08 +0000

I just don’t see a direct Shields for Upton swap. It doesn’t make sense from the Rays perspective, because while he makes 9 mil this year, he makes 14 mil in ’14 and ’15. That’s too expensive by Rays standards, meaning we trade our 2nd best pitcher for a guy that’s basically a rental. I don’t think it’s going to happen unless we either get another prospect back or instead of Shields we could deal a Davis or Niemann instead.

I realize this is Shields last year here too, but I don’t see us trading a great, proven pitcher for a good hitter and player. Doesn’t feel like a Friedman move, especially with us still having huge holes to fill at 1B, DH, and C. It’s not like Justin Upton is the final piece of the offensive puzzle…far from it

By: deadeyedesign23

deadeyedesign23 — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 04:31:33 +0000

BJ Upton was at east a 4 WAR player most years. If that’s under achieving then an underachieving team wins 108 games.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 02:49:29 +0000

I can think of one really good reason….the D-Backs just aren’t that stupid. They’d be lucky to get Bauer for Shields…contracts matter for both of these teams.

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 02:20:40 +0000

Joel Sherman has a sense of humor. I am sure that Arizona got a big laugh from that joke.

By: randygnyc

randygnyc — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 01:59:45 +0000

Apparently, last year Justin had the Yankees on his no trade list. That has recently changed as reported by Joel Sherman in yesterday’s New York post. He reported that pitchers David phelps and Adam warren could be offered as part of a trade.

By: prosourcetalk

prosourcetalk — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 01:35:50 +0000

If they could get Bauer & Upton for Shields then why not?

By: indaburg

indaburg — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 00:50:45 +0000

There was also chatter here in Tampa Bay that BJ might accept the qualifying offer if it meant he could play with his brother for the year. Apparently, that is a dream the two of them have had since they were kids. The Rays supposedly made it clear to BJ that they couldn’t afford both him and his brother so BJ opted to decline in that case.

Justin is the better (a lifetime OPS of .832 is pretty darn good) and younger of the two, so if I had to pick one, it would be Justin.

By: dvh1100

dvh1100 — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 00:42:06 +0000

Justin has a better swing than his brother. Plus Maddon knows how to coach these prima donnas up

By: xpensivewinos

xpensivewinos — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 00:26:11 +0000

So let me get this straight: they finally move on from one underachieving, frustrating guy who hasn’t reached his potential and then the second he’s out the door, they’re going to replace him with his brother, who is being traded because he’s an underachieving, frustrating guy who hasn’t reached his potential????

By the way…….maybe they have reached their potential.