Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:08 AM EDT
Ventura went after the Jays’ slugger on Twitter, but then deleted the tweets.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:42 AM EDT
120 of the 650 voters will be cut from the rolls.
Aug 3, 2015, 5:00 AM EDT
Lots of walkoffs, lots of guys throwing at other guys and, oh yeah, the Mets are in first place.
Aug 2, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Kyle Lohse may have lost his spot in the Brewers’ rotation as his struggles continued on Sunday against the Cubs.
Aug 2, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Adeiny Hechavarria prevented the Marlins from getting swept by the Padres on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Lucas Duda has no respect for familial ties.
Aug 2, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Red Sox pitching prospect Henry Owens will debut at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. No pressure, kid.
Aug 2, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Dan Haren sounds pretty set on retiring after the season, but left open the possibility he’d pitch beyond 2015.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
It’s safe to say the Royals and Blue Jays won’t be getting dinner with each other anytime soon.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
Brandon Morrow will get a second opinion on his right shoulder, as his injury woes persist.
Aug 2, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
A.J. Burnett is prepared to pitch through an elbow injury if necessary.
Aug 2, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
The Blue Jays and Royals weren’t very friendly to each other on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 3:56 PM EDT
Cincinnati hosted one of two benches-clearing incidents in baseball on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 3:35 PM EDT
Injured Phillies second baseman Chase Utley is a potential August acquisition consideration for the Cubs.
Aug 2, 2015, 2:45 PM EDT
Brad Ausmus has a candidate to handle save situations following the Joakim Soria trade.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:55 PM EDT
Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton might not return in mid-August as originally anticipated.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:01 PM EDT
Red Sox starter Rick Porcello heads to the disabled list with a triceps injury.
Aug 2, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Here comes the Boom?
Aug 2, 2015, 11:14 AM EDT
I think it may be!
Aug 2, 2015, 10:40 AM EDT
Great moments in macho baseball culture
- Yordano Ventura calls Jose Bautista a “nobody” and accuses him of stealing signs 0
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 23
- The benches cleared in Toronto, too 77
- The Reds’ and Pirates’ benches cleared after Brandon Phillips was hit with a pitch 52
- Reminder: even though the trade deadline has passed, trades can still happen 13
- Settling the Scores: Saturday’s results 36
- Lucas Duda’s last eight hits have been home runs 11
- Report: Larry Lucchino stepping down as president and CEO of the Red Sox 32
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (205)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (113)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (92)