Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:49 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday night around MLB, including another promising outing from Carlos Martinez.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:35 PM EDT
The Dodgers made a couple of moves to make room for reliever Sergio Santos, called up on Friday.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Hisashi Iwakuma is dealing with a strained right lat muscle.
Apr 24, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
The Mets have lost for the first time since April 11.
Apr 24, 2015, 9:10 PM EDT
Michael Saunders should be activated from the disabled list by the Blue Jays on Saturday.
Apr 24, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
Wandy Rodriguez is starting on Friday night against the Angels.
Apr 24, 2015, 7:27 PM EDT
Hamilton’s return to Texas is the best-case scenario
Apr 24, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Mets reliever Bobby Parnell won’t throw for a week as he experienced forearm tightness during his Tommy John rehab.
Apr 24, 2015, 5:55 PM EDT
The Angels and Josh Hamilton are reportedly parting ways.
Apr 24, 2015, 5:09 PM EDT
Bonus of Tommy John rehab: more time to study for your naturalization test.
Apr 24, 2015, 4:51 PM EDT
To be fair, the guy was being a jackwagon.
Rob Manfred was asked again about the leaks in the Josh Hamilton case. His answers weren’t much better.
Apr 24, 2015, 4:05 PM EDT
Two weeks ago he said there would be no investigation. No he says the league has “tried mightily” to figure out the leaks. Really?
Apr 24, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT
Yelich, who agreed to a seven-year, $49 million contract this spring, was off to a slow start by hitting .200 with zero homers and a .488 OPS through 11 games.
Apr 24, 2015, 3:05 PM EDT
A-Rod’s habit of destroying narratives explains an awful lot about why reporters have developed a habit of destroying A-Rod.
Apr 24, 2015, 2:49 PM EDT
That leaves Everth Cabrera and Jimmy Paredes as the Orioles’ double-play duo.
Apr 24, 2015, 12:40 PM EDT
“Too spongy, slow and lots of untrue hops”
Apr 24, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Papelbon’s exclusive interview with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:32 AM EDT
But even if it’s successful, it may not do what he wants it to do.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Allen Dykstra, who filled in for Loney at first base, is headed back to Triple-A.
Apr 24, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Parker has been aiming at an early June return to the A’s.
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 0
- Report: Angels, Rangers agree on Josh Hamilton trade 55
- Must-Click Link: Alex Rodriguzez: the slugger with a thousand faces 17
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 114
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected 155
- Bartolo Colon picks off a baserunner. By running him down all by himself. 54
- Pete Rose will be allowed to participate in All-Star Game festivities 69
- Career over? Joe Nathan needs Tommy John surgery 31
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (155)
- Kelvin Herrera gets a five-game suspension; Yordano Ventura fined (133)
- Jose Bautista and the Orioles exchanged some words last night (117)
- Joe Buck has a truly awful suggestion about how to improve MLB broadcasts (115)