Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
Jul 5, 2015, 1:46 PM EDT
Garcia boasts a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven starts (48 innings) this season. He’s missed a ton of time to injuries in his career, but most of the major problems have been elbow- and shoulder-related.
Jul 5, 2015, 12:24 PM EDT
Soler wound up missing over a month with a sprained left ankle.
Jul 5, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Schoop originally landed on the disabled list on April 18 after being diagnosed with both a PCL tear and MCL strain in his left knee.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:32 AM EDT
Check out this wrap-around style montage of all the July 4 action in Major League Baseball …
Jul 5, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
Josh Hamilton has a .954 OPS in 10 games with the Rangers. The problem is he’s only played in 10 games.
Jul 5, 2015, 8:53 AM EDT
The best fireworks on July 4 came from the Angels.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Chi Chi Gonzalez posted good results in his first seven major league starts, but he’ll cede his rotation spot to Matt Harrison and head back to Triple-A.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:20 PM EDT
But not even science could master the knuckleball.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Kris Bryant had a monster night at the plate on Saturday against the Marlins.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
Jarred Cosart had a rough outing on Saturday and will try to straighten things out at Triple-A.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
The Orioles got Jonathan Schoop back after nearly three months. They sent Ryan Flaherty to Triple-A to make room for him.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
The Braves are trying to shop an expensive, ineffective Chris Johnson.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:07 PM EDT
The Twins added some bullpen depth in signing Scott Atchison to a minor league deal.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
The Giants tried to get creative to catch Bryce Harper napping off of second base.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
John Axford is back with the Rockies, ready to continue closing out games.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Ervin Santana is back. Trevor May’s rotation spot has been freed up to make room for him.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Avisail Garcia robbed Chris Davis of a home run. It was as glorious as it sounds.
Jul 4, 2015, 5:28 PM EDT
Ross, 38, is batting .189/.302/.284 over 87 plate appearances this season.
Jul 4, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Matt Holliday has been sidelined since June 8 with a Grade 2 strain of his right quadriceps muscle.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:18 PM EDT
Miguel Cabrera is going to be missed while he’s out with a Grade 3 strain of his left calf, but the Tigers are getting by just fine so far this afternoon against the Blue Jays.
- Orioles activate Jonathan Schoop after 10-week absence 3
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 17
- Video: Kris Bryant hits a grand slam as part of a two-homer, six-RBI night 8
- Stephen Strasburg exits start with tightness in left side 10
- In the wake of the Miguel Cabrera injury the Tigers have few good options 19
- Mets general manager Sandy Alderson says Terry Collins’ job is safe 11
- Calf injury sends Miguel Cabrera to the disabled list for the first time in his career 7
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 27
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno (90)
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. (78)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (77)
- Brian Dozier is the best second baseman in baseball (72)