Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
May 22, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Travis has been a huge bright spot for Toronto this season.
May 22, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
At least that’s what Molly Knight reports from Japan, and I’m inclined to agree.
May 22, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Mujica actually managed to pick up the ball and make a throw to first base for the out.
May 22, 2015, 8:46 AM EDT
Everyone does it and no one cares. Until someone does.
May 22, 2015, 7:19 AM EDT
The Giants own the Dodgers at AT&T Park. And the Madison Bumgarner owned Clayton Kershaw. At least yesterday.
May 21, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
The Cubs are reportedly one of several teams who have looked into signing Soriano.
May 21, 2015, 11:03 PM EDT
Coco Crisp left Tuesday’s game with tightness in his neck and it sounds like he’s going to need to miss some time.
May 21, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
The Phillies have reportedly talked to the Angels about a deal involving Revere.
May 21, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
Brewers reliever Will Smith was ejected from Thursday’s game against the Braves in the bottom of the seventh inning after he was found to have a foreign substance on his non-throwing arm.
May 21, 2015, 9:03 PM EDT
Masahiro Tanaka took his first step toward rejoining the Yankees rotation tonight by tossing three scoreless innings in a minor league rehab start with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
May 21, 2015, 8:01 PM EDT
Howard homered in back-to-back games at Coors Field and is now up to nine home runs on the season.
May 21, 2015, 7:12 PM EDT
Yan Gomes has been sidelined since April 11 due to an MCL sprain in his right knee.
May 21, 2015, 6:28 PM EDT
Back in 2013 the Dodgers signed Arruebarrena to a five-year, $25 million deal.
May 21, 2015, 6:18 PM EDT
Victorino is dealing with general soreness which is “centralized somewhat” in his left calf.
May 21, 2015, 5:03 PM EDT
Ace vs. Ace. Advantage: Bumgarner.
May 21, 2015, 3:46 PM EDT
He struck out 11 dudes in eight shutout innings.
May 21, 2015, 2:38 PM EDT
Can you blame them?
May 21, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
May 21, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Morneau’s career was previously derailed by concussions when he was with the Twins.
May 21, 2015, 1:28 PM EDT
Pedro Alvarez hit a ball out of PNC Park the other day. It landed in a boat. Then some guy came along and took it. Whose ball is it and was the law broken?
- Will Smith’s ejection once again shows baseball’s silly approach to foreign substance rules 29
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 33
- Who really owns a home run ball? 60
- The story behind the Nationals squirting chocolate syrup on each other after big wins 43
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 127
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” 128
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week 122
- Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu to have season-ending shoulder surgery 8
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (128)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (127)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. (111)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)