Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EST
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:27 PM EST
It took long enough, but Matt Kemp has finally been traded to the Padres.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:00 PM EST
Get excited, I guess.
Dec 18, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
The Padres continue to overhaul their lineup while the A’s continue to unload.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:46 PM EST
Young, 29, batted .302 with seven home runs and .779 OPS (120 OPS+) over 255 plate appearances this past season.
Dec 18, 2014, 7:50 PM EST
Lowe began his career with Seattle and had his best season with the club in 2009.
Dec 18, 2014, 6:41 PM EST
Is this the beginning of the end for the Tampa Bay Rays?
Dec 18, 2014, 6:07 PM EST
Johnson missed the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late April.
Dec 18, 2014, 6:00 PM EST
Does Ichiro really have one more year left in him?
Dec 18, 2014, 5:40 PM EST
Veteran catching depth.
Dec 18, 2014, 5:17 PM EST
Giavotella is a career .315 hitter with an .835 OPS and as many walks as strikeouts in nearly 2,000 plate appearances at Triple-A.
Dec 18, 2014, 4:47 PM EST
He’s probably not the one who knocks. Indeed, this crew seemed so amateurish he probably called first to make sure it was a good time for everyone.
Dec 18, 2014, 4:17 PM EST
It started with an argument over candy.
Dec 18, 2014, 3:34 PM EST
Between Cuba and North Korea, it’s been a big couple of days for communism. Let’s see what communists thought about baseball once upon a time.
Dec 18, 2014, 3:18 PM EST
Medlen missed all of this year recovering from his second Tommy John elbow surgery.
Dec 18, 2014, 3:00 PM EST
What a difference a day makes.
Dec 18, 2014, 2:38 PM EST
Rollins is not tied to Kemp, at least not entirely.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:06 PM EST
Baseball card collecting in the post-bicycle spokes, pre-crash world of the 1980s.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:17 PM EST
And the Padres “continue to consult medical experts.”
Dec 18, 2014, 11:39 AM EST
Let’s pump the brakes a bit on the imminent MLB takeover of Cuba.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:47 AM EST
Quotes from manager Buck Showalter.
- Matt Kemp has officially been traded to the Padres 18
- Padres acquire catcher Derek Norris from Athletics 30
- St. Petersburg City Council votes down deal to allow Rays to look for new stadium site 81
- What will the future of Cuban players in MLB look like? 25
- Royals sign Edinson Volquez for two years, $20 million 29
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade 97
- Sergio Romo re-signs with the Giants for $15 million 15
- So, apparently we’re sweating the Matt Kemp physical now 46
- Baseball’s highest-ranking Hispanic woman employee sues for discrimination (163)
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, and Astros interested in Phillies’ Cole Hamels (111)
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade (97)
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. (95)