Nov 11, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
That the Rays will trade a starter this winter seems like a given. With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all under contract, the Rays possess both quality and quantity in the rotation.
What they don’t have are bats and a lot of money, so with holes at first base, catcher, one middle infield spot and one outfield spot, dealing a starter for a hitter or two makes all of the sense in the world.
In terms of return, Moore and Price undoubtedly have the most trade value in the group, with Hellickson not too far behind. That’s why it might be tempting to deal from that trio.
Shields, though, has plenty of value himself. His two club options call for him about $24 million the next two years. That’s pretty expensive for the Rays — in fact, his $10.25 million salary in 2013 will be the highest in club history — but it’s palatable compared to what inferior free agents will command this winter. If Shields were a free agent, he’d probably be in line for $16 million-$18 million per year in a five-year deal.
And I just don’t trust Shields to keep this up. He’s been one of baseball’s best starters the last two years, but he’s also thrown 477 innings between those two seasons. He’s reached 215 innings five of the last six years, missing only when he finished at 203 in 2010.
That durability has given him a ton of value in Tampa Bay, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Dan Haren had a very similar streak to Shields from ages 25-30 before suddenly taking a dive last season. It was probably different back in the 1970s, but in the last 30 years, the list of the pitchers who have been most durable before age 30 doesn’t match up very well with the list of pitchers durable after age 30.
There’s talk about the Rays perhaps dealing Hellickson to Arizona for Justin Upton, and I don’t think that’d be a bad idea at all. But if they’re looking at lesser names to fill the gaps, they might as well save as much money as they can in the process. They still have Price for three more years, and while he’s going to get expensive in a hurry — he could command more than Shields in 2014 — he’ll still have plenty of trade value in a year or two if they want to go that route. Hellickson is four years away from free agency.
If the Rays trade Shields for a young regular, they’ll suddenly free up $10 million they can spend on one of the other holes. It’d be like trading for an extra player. Shields might bring back a Josh Reddick from Oakland, a Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto or a Wil Myers from Kansas City. Then the Rays could use the salary to sign Mike Napoli to play first and catch or Stephen Drew to start at short. They’d have plenty of options.
Mar 26, 2015, 3:25 PM EDT
Archer will be the first pitcher other than David Price or James Shields to start Opening Day for the Rays since 2007.
Mar 26, 2015, 2:51 PM EDT
The pitching is great and the offense should be better. But is better good enough?
Mar 26, 2015, 2:22 PM EDT
“I’ve had enough of St. Louis.”
Mar 26, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
The Rays and Marlins have some challenges a lot of teams don’t.
Mar 26, 2015, 12:55 PM EDT
We shouldn’t forget about the 28- and 29-year-olds getting sent down, too.
Mar 26, 2015, 12:33 PM EDT
Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus all ranked Lindor as a top-10 overall prospect this year.
Mar 26, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Buck was trying to win a job with the Braves on a minor-league contract.
Mar 26, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Saunders was acquired from the Mariners in exchange for J.A. Happ in December and will be the Blue Jays’ starting left fielder once he’s healthy.
Mar 26, 2015, 11:04 AM EDT
The country with the world’s highest murder rate is no longer a safe offseason home for many Venezuelan natives.
Mar 26, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Delabar was an All-Star in 2013 and now he’s headed to the minors.
Shane Victorino lashes out at talk radio guys for blowing his Cole Hamels comments out of proportion
Mar 26, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
And, from what I can tell, he’s right to do so.
Mar 26, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Presumably he’s done enough to get the job.
Mar 26, 2015, 9:32 AM EDT
Bonus: A-Rod talks like a scout, and sounds pretty convincing doing it!
Mar 26, 2015, 8:53 AM EDT
Our second favorite meme rides again!
Mar 26, 2015, 7:59 AM EDT
Alex Gordon still would’ve been out, by the way.
Mar 25, 2015, 11:35 PM EDT
Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury was diagnosed with an oblique strain early last week, but it’s thought to be a fairly minor injury and he is expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2015 regular season.
Mar 25, 2015, 10:28 PM EDT
Chris Sale would have been Chicago’s Opening Day starter, but he’s expected to miss the first week of the season due to an avulsion fracture in his right foot.
Mar 25, 2015, 9:34 PM EDT
There’s been some controversy about this, but the Cardinals will go ahead with their plan …
Mar 25, 2015, 8:59 PM EDT
The 22-year-old will take over as the Dodgers’ starting center fielder in 2015 after tallying 33 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 121 games last season at Triple-A. The hype machine is rolling.
Mar 25, 2015, 7:48 PM EDT
Can the Bucs make a third consecutive trip to the postseason?
- 2015 Preview: Seattle Mariners 2
- Cardinals add “OT” patch for Oscar Taveras 75
- 2015 Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates 11
- 2015 Preview: San Diego Padres 22
- MLB is looking into some strange gambling tweets involving Marlins pitcher Jarred Cosart 46
- 2015 Preview: New York Yankees 63
- 2015 Preview: Cleveland Indians 10
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- Joe West ejects A.J. Pierzynski by calmly telling the Braves’ dugout “you need a new catcher.” (97)
- Mo’ne Davis says college ballplayer who wrote an offensive tweet about her deserves a second chance (87)
- Andrew McCutchen cut his hair for the first time in eight years (75)
- Cardinals add “OT” patch for Oscar Taveras (75)