Nov 13, 2012, 8:16 PM EST
It’s not official yet, but here are some early thoughts on the trade as it’s currently being presented:
Blue Jays acquire SS Jose Reyes, RHP Josh Johnson, LHP Mark Buehrle, INF-OF Emilio Bonifacio, C John Buck and $4 million from the Marlins for SS Yunel Escobar, RHP Henderson Alvarez, SS Adeiny Hechvarria, LHP Justin Nicolino, OF Jake Marisnick, RHP Anthony DeSclafani and C Jeff Mathis.
- Of course, there’s the obvious thought: the Marlins are a joke and owner Jeffrey Loria needs to be forced out of baseball. That still applies.
That said, strictly as a baseball trade, this seems like a pretty good value for them. Reyes and Buehrle really shouldn’t have any trade value at all; the Marlins were the high bidders for both last year and signed them to backloaded contracts. Any time you can sign a free agent to a long-term deal and then trade him a year later, without eating any salary (though the Marlins did eat $4 million here), you’re coming out ahead. The back half of free agent deals are almost always worse than the front half.
Working under that theory, the only two guys in the deal for the Marlins with significant trade value were Johnson, who is one year away from free agency, and Bonifacio, an arbitration-eligible speedster who is an adequate regular at a few positions but not really exceptional anywhere.
In return, the Marlins are getting a cheap No. 3 or 4 starter in Alvarez, a possible long-term shortstop in Hechevarria, two very good prospects who will both probably crack the bottom half of top 100 lists next spring in Nicolino and Marisnick, a possible bullpen arm in DeSclafani and whatever Escobar brings back in trade. That’s pretty good. Better still if catcher Travis d’Arnaud was in there, but that probably would have required eating more salary than the Marlins were willing to do.
If this were a computer simulation, one could make a great argument that the Marlins came out ahead here. Figuring that they weren’t going to contend in 2013 anyway, they might as well start over, tank next year and then try to load up again come 2014 or ’15.
However, this is no computer simulation. The Marlins just took a big ol’ crap on everyone who has supported them in recent years and ticked off their lone remaining star in Giancarlo Stanton. Also, it’s hard to imagine free agents will line up to sign with them, even if they do offer to overpay, after what happened to Reyes, Buehrle and Heath Bell. It’s going to take more than a year or two to recover from this.
- As for the Blue Jays, well, they obviously got a whole lot better. The rotation now lines up as Johnson, Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and probably J.A. Happ. Kyle Drabek will return from Tommy John sometime next year, and the team still has some quality pitching prospects behind them.
The lineup could look like:
With the newly signed Maicer Izturis leading the bench. The Jays could also trade Arencibia for a Lind replacement or a left fielder and then let top prospect Travis d’Arnaud compete with Buck and Bobby Wilson for catching chores in spring training.
The Jays also have plenty of live arms in relief and Sergio Santos making his way back. There’s no doubt that this team should be a contender. Whether it will be will hinge on keeping the arms healthy, especially Johnson’s. That’s an area in which the Blue Jays have had a lot of difficulties.
As is, the Blue Jays look like pretty good bets to claim one of the AL’s five playoff berths next year and those improved odds come at the expense of the Orioles, Rays and Red Sox.
Dec 21, 2014, 5:47 PM EST
It makes a lot of sense. And now, it seems, the clubs themselves are starting to talk about it.
Dec 21, 2014, 4:17 PM EST
Is Smoltz really so different than Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina?
Dec 21, 2014, 2:50 PM EST
The field for James Shields has been winnowed down to a few, namely the Giants and Red Sox.
Dec 21, 2014, 1:35 PM EST
If the Padres want to keep Justin Upton around beyond 2015, they’ll have to hammer out a contract extension before spring training begins.
Dec 21, 2014, 12:27 PM EST
Scott Boras says the Orioles should expect to have Matt Wieters behind the plate when the 2015 regular season opens on April 6.
Dec 21, 2014, 10:55 AM EST
A.J. Preller, the second-youngest general manager in Major League Baseball, joined MLB Network this weekend to discuss the Padres’ incredibly active offseason …
Dec 21, 2014, 9:11 AM EST
Matt Kemp was introduced to the San Diego media on Saturday at Petco Park …
Dec 20, 2014, 11:50 PM EST
Exciting news for Willie Bloomquist fans.
Dec 20, 2014, 10:45 PM EST
Bounce-back candidate Brandon Beachy has drawn interest from the Rangers lately.
Dec 20, 2014, 9:40 PM EST
Josh Lindblom is taking his talents to the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:35 PM EST
The deal between Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin and the Angels became official on Saturday after the 20-year-old passed his physical.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:10 PM EST
The Giants reportedly have no plans to attempt to initiate contract talk with free agent Max Scherzer.
Dec 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
An unnamed team has reportedly offered a two-year deal to Nick Hundley. It’s not the Orioles.
Dec 20, 2014, 5:26 PM EST
MLB’s waiver rules are complicated enough for fans and those who cover baseball on a regular basis, but apparently they can even confuse teams sometimes.
Dec 20, 2014, 4:06 PM EST
The Phillies could eye Asdrubal Cabrera as a replacement for Jimmy Rollins.
Dec 20, 2014, 2:45 PM EST
Downs had a 4.97 ERA over 55 appearances this past season between the White Sox and Royals.
Dec 20, 2014, 1:30 PM EST
With the Phillies in the middle of a rebuilding effort, they are facing some tough (and long overdue) truths with their veteran players.
Dec 20, 2014, 12:16 PM EST
Tulowitzki would immediately take the Mets from a “maybe” contender to a “legitimate” contender, but don’t get your hopes up.
Dec 20, 2014, 11:01 AM EST
Rollins was officially traded from the Phillies to the Dodgers yesterday in exchange for right-hander Zach Eflin and left-hander Tom Windle.
Dec 20, 2014, 9:59 AM EST
As part of this week’s three-team Wil Myers trade, the Nationals acquired right-hander Joe Ross and a player to be named later. However, the player to be named later isn’t a mystery. It’s shortstop prospect Trea Turner, who is now in limbo after the trade.
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