Nov 15, 2012, 9:27 AM EDT
Awards week concludes tonight when, at 6PM Eastern, the winners of the MVP Awards, as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, will be announced on MLB Network. Let’s break it down:
Everyone agrees that the AL Award is going to come down to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and the Angels Mike Trout. The National League is thought by most to be a three-horse race, with either the Giants Buster Posey, the Brewers Ryan Braun or the Cardinals Yadier Molina poised to take home the hardware.
The American League MVP has been argued about for a couple of months now. If you’re familiar with the arguments, you’re likely tired of them. If not, know that it comes down, as these things so often do, to a difference of opinion about what constitutes value.
Those who support Miguel Cabrera note that he did something which hadn’t been done for 45 years: win the Triple Crown by leading the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139), all while leading the Tigers to the playoffs. He is given extra credit by his supporters for moving to third base after playing at first base for several years, and such a move is no small trick, historically speaking.
The Trout supporters, meanwhile, point to his overall game, noting that his offensive numbers were almost as good as Cabrera’s — he hit .326 with 30 homers and 83 RBI and posted an OBP of .399 and slugged at a .564 clip — but that he (a) was a fantastic baserunner, stealing 49 bases in 54 attempts; and (b) played elite defense in center field as well, while Cabrera’s time at third base was decidedly lackluster, even if it was admirable. While the Angels, unlike the Tigers, did not make the playoffs, Trout supporters argue that this wasn’t Trout’s fault, as he was not with the team for the first month of the season. They also note that, playoffs or not, the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, while playing in a tougher division. If you ask them, they’ll also tell you that the quality of the team a player is on should not have any bearing on his qualifications for an individual award like the MVP.
The National League arguments are less contentious. The defending MVP, Ryan Braun, had another fantastic season, leading the league in homers (41), runs (108) and OPS (.987). Posey, meanwhile, led the league in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (172), which adjusts OPS for the ballpark in which he played (Posey’s home park, AT&T Park, is rougher on hitters than Miller Park in Milwaukee). Posey also catches and does it well, which gives him more defensive value than Braun. The Cardinals Yadier Molina, for his part, is perhaps the best defensive catcher in living memory. And while he did not lead the league in any offensive categories, he posted a fantastic offensive season hitting .315/.373/.501 while hitting 22 homers to accompany that other-worldly defense behind the plate.
There are some other, less statistical arguments for and against these fellows as well. Posey came back in 2012 after a gruesome leg injury. Braun, the 2011 MVP, was dogged by a positive (but ultimately overturned on appeal) PED test at the end of last year, which will likely cause many voters to discount his case and/or punish him for what happened in the offseason. Molina doesn’t have a narrative case like that, unless some voters give him a bit of extra value for helping lead the Cardinals to the playoffs after they lost future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to free agency. That’s not likely to be a major factor, however.
Ultimately MVP voters are going to be unable to resist voting for a Triple Crown winner and are going to be unable to cast votes for a guy in Ryan Braun who many view as tainted by PEDs. Molina will, as he so often has been over the course of his career, be overlooked and underrated.
As such, Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey,this writer predicts, will take home the hardware and it won’t be particularly close. Tune it to MLB Network at 6PM tonight — or just come here to HardballTalk — to find out for sure.
Jul 24, 2014, 4:49 PM EDT
Jul 24, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
Frank Thomas is headed to the Hall of Fame thanks to his legendary batting eye.
Jul 24, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Everyone has a gift. This is my gift. I shall now share it with you.
Jul 24, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
According to K-HOU television in Houston the 46-year-old Knoblauch has been charged with assault of a family member, Cheri Knoblauch, whom he divorced in 2012.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:51 PM EDT
Kendrys Morales had a good first week for the Twins after sitting out the first two months of the season and then signing a one-year, $7.5 million deal in June, but he’s been horrendous since then while hitting .209 with one homer and a .524 OPS in 33 games.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:49 PM EDT
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Dan Haren finished last season strong for the Nationals, signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers this offseason, and got off to a nice start in Los Angeles.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
And it provides us with an opportunity to think about what it means to be a Hall of Fame manager.
Jul 24, 2014, 1:46 PM EDT
Taijuan Walker rejoined Seattle’s rotation Wednesday after spending most of the season on the disabled list and at Triple-A, but after struggling in his start against the Mets the Mariners have sent the 21-year-old rookie back to the minors.
Jul 24, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
Not exactly a big trade, but whatever.
Jul 24, 2014, 1:10 PM EDT
Oakland acquiring Jim Johnson from Baltimore and agreeing to pay him $10 million this season left a lot of people shaking their heads and now the move is officially a spectacular failure. And over, too.
Jul 24, 2014, 12:20 PM EDT
When the Tigers signed Joel Hanrahan in May they were hoping the former All-Star closer would be ready to return from Tommy John elbow surgery by the All-Star break, but he hasn’t progressed as planned and now they’re not hoping for much of anything.
Jul 24, 2014, 12:09 PM EDT
Who is buying? Who is selling? Who is on the block? And is next week’s trade deadline really a deadline?
Jul 24, 2014, 11:51 AM EDT
Four names you’d expect and one name of a guy heading to retirement.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
Texas traded closer Joakim Soria to Detroit for a pair of prospects and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers will likely turn back to a familiar name to fill the vacant closer role: Neftali Feliz.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
All Hail the best hitter for at least the last half-century and a dude who has more business being on that stage in Cooperstown on Sunday than anyone.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:50 AM EDT
Jon Lester is three months from hitting the open market as a free agent and Red Sox president Larry Lucchino revealed during a radio interview that the left-hander has informed the team he won’t negotiate a new contract until after the season.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported yesterday that the Phillies have considered releasing struggling first baseman Ryan Howard with more than $60 million remaining on his contract and today is the day it becomes totally clear that the former MVP has been benched.
Jul 24, 2014, 9:17 AM EDT
And they’re pretty darn good.
- The eyes have it: Thomas’ greatness built on patience 4
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams 61
- Mariners re-acquire Kendrys Morales from Twins for Stephen Pryor 17
- A’s designate $10 million reliever Jim Johnson for assignment 27
- Everything you need to know about next week’s trade deadline 31
- Impending free agent Jon Lester won’t talk contract with the Red Sox until after the season 18
- Ten years ago today the Alex Rodriguez-Jason Varitek brawl changed the narrative of the Sox-Yankees rivalry 84
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 30
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (162)
- Luke Scott released from Korean team after calling coach a “liar” and a “coward” (108)
- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres (108)
- Who is the next Face of Baseball? (97)
- David Ortiz passes Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list — is he a Hall of Famer? (92)