Nov 15, 2012, 9:27 AM EST
Awards week concludes tonight when, at 6PM Eastern, the winners of the MVP Awards, as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, will be announced on MLB Network. Let’s break it down:
Everyone agrees that the AL Award is going to come down to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and the Angels Mike Trout. The National League is thought by most to be a three-horse race, with either the Giants Buster Posey, the Brewers Ryan Braun or the Cardinals Yadier Molina poised to take home the hardware.
The American League MVP has been argued about for a couple of months now. If you’re familiar with the arguments, you’re likely tired of them. If not, know that it comes down, as these things so often do, to a difference of opinion about what constitutes value.
Those who support Miguel Cabrera note that he did something which hadn’t been done for 45 years: win the Triple Crown by leading the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139), all while leading the Tigers to the playoffs. He is given extra credit by his supporters for moving to third base after playing at first base for several years, and such a move is no small trick, historically speaking.
The Trout supporters, meanwhile, point to his overall game, noting that his offensive numbers were almost as good as Cabrera’s — he hit .326 with 30 homers and 83 RBI and posted an OBP of .399 and slugged at a .564 clip — but that he (a) was a fantastic baserunner, stealing 49 bases in 54 attempts; and (b) played elite defense in center field as well, while Cabrera’s time at third base was decidedly lackluster, even if it was admirable. While the Angels, unlike the Tigers, did not make the playoffs, Trout supporters argue that this wasn’t Trout’s fault, as he was not with the team for the first month of the season. They also note that, playoffs or not, the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, while playing in a tougher division. If you ask them, they’ll also tell you that the quality of the team a player is on should not have any bearing on his qualifications for an individual award like the MVP.
The National League arguments are less contentious. The defending MVP, Ryan Braun, had another fantastic season, leading the league in homers (41), runs (108) and OPS (.987). Posey, meanwhile, led the league in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (172), which adjusts OPS for the ballpark in which he played (Posey’s home park, AT&T Park, is rougher on hitters than Miller Park in Milwaukee). Posey also catches and does it well, which gives him more defensive value than Braun. The Cardinals Yadier Molina, for his part, is perhaps the best defensive catcher in living memory. And while he did not lead the league in any offensive categories, he posted a fantastic offensive season hitting .315/.373/.501 while hitting 22 homers to accompany that other-worldly defense behind the plate.
There are some other, less statistical arguments for and against these fellows as well. Posey came back in 2012 after a gruesome leg injury. Braun, the 2011 MVP, was dogged by a positive (but ultimately overturned on appeal) PED test at the end of last year, which will likely cause many voters to discount his case and/or punish him for what happened in the offseason. Molina doesn’t have a narrative case like that, unless some voters give him a bit of extra value for helping lead the Cardinals to the playoffs after they lost future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to free agency. That’s not likely to be a major factor, however.
Ultimately MVP voters are going to be unable to resist voting for a Triple Crown winner and are going to be unable to cast votes for a guy in Ryan Braun who many view as tainted by PEDs. Molina will, as he so often has been over the course of his career, be overlooked and underrated.
As such, Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey,this writer predicts, will take home the hardware and it won’t be particularly close. Tune it to MLB Network at 6PM tonight — or just come here to HardballTalk — to find out for sure.
Feb 26, 2015, 11:02 PM EST
While Daniel Murphy would like to discuss a contract extension with the Mets, it looks like a foregone conclusion that he will test free agency after the 2015 season.
Feb 26, 2015, 9:49 PM EST
Braves outfielder Nick Markakis recently expressed frustration about how contract talks with the Orioles broke down over the winter.
Feb 26, 2015, 8:40 PM EST
Victorino gave up hitting from the left side late in 2013, but he’s ready to give it another shot.
Feb 26, 2015, 7:15 PM EST
It will be Harvey’s first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery 16 months ago.
Feb 26, 2015, 6:06 PM EST
Santana hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012 due to injury.
Feb 26, 2015, 5:17 PM EST
“I think hanging it up is going to be harder for guys than they realize, after being out of it for a year.”
Feb 26, 2015, 3:40 PM EST
But it’s a very different kind of battle.
Feb 26, 2015, 3:18 PM EST
Milwaukee out, Toronto in?
Feb 26, 2015, 2:06 PM EST
Shame on A-Rod for making the reporters obsess about him.
Feb 26, 2015, 1:34 PM EST
Maybe THIS is the year he finally stops swinging at everything
Feb 26, 2015, 1:19 PM EST
Wainwright has been diagnosed with an abdominal strain.
Feb 26, 2015, 12:30 PM EST
It’s been two and a half years, but it still leaves a “dirty taste” in his mouth.
Feb 26, 2015, 11:47 AM EST
Pena once looked like a potential star for the Reds and Red Sox, but then washed out by age 26.
Feb 26, 2015, 11:32 AM EST
He also (a) wants to emulate Greg Maddux; and (b) asked Sandy Koufax about his curveball.
Feb 26, 2015, 11:00 AM EST
Welcome to 2002, Ruben Amaro!
Feb 26, 2015, 10:49 AM EST
It’s still early, but …
Feb 26, 2015, 10:23 AM EST
Two weeks ago Francisco Rodriguez was said to be holding out for a two-year contract.
Feb 26, 2015, 10:04 AM EST
The Marins are protecting their investment.
Feb 26, 2015, 9:37 AM EST
Even if Mike Lupica thinks they will be soon.
Feb 26, 2015, 9:00 AM EST
Spring training is starting poorly for Toronto.
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 8
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 267
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 16
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 85
- Yankees don’t plan on having to pay A-Rod’s $30 million in home run milestone bonuses 49
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks 131
- Rob Manfred says a return to a 154-game season could happen one day 66
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training 114
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (267)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training (114)
- Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada reportedly signs with the Red Sox for $31.5 million, plus $31.5 million in penalties (106)
- Gregg Zaun says young players should be physically abused and hazed by veterans. So they can learn respect. (105)