Nov 15, 2012, 9:27 AM EDT
Awards week concludes tonight when, at 6PM Eastern, the winners of the MVP Awards, as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, will be announced on MLB Network. Let’s break it down:
Everyone agrees that the AL Award is going to come down to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and the Angels Mike Trout. The National League is thought by most to be a three-horse race, with either the Giants Buster Posey, the Brewers Ryan Braun or the Cardinals Yadier Molina poised to take home the hardware.
The American League MVP has been argued about for a couple of months now. If you’re familiar with the arguments, you’re likely tired of them. If not, know that it comes down, as these things so often do, to a difference of opinion about what constitutes value.
Those who support Miguel Cabrera note that he did something which hadn’t been done for 45 years: win the Triple Crown by leading the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139), all while leading the Tigers to the playoffs. He is given extra credit by his supporters for moving to third base after playing at first base for several years, and such a move is no small trick, historically speaking.
The Trout supporters, meanwhile, point to his overall game, noting that his offensive numbers were almost as good as Cabrera’s — he hit .326 with 30 homers and 83 RBI and posted an OBP of .399 and slugged at a .564 clip — but that he (a) was a fantastic baserunner, stealing 49 bases in 54 attempts; and (b) played elite defense in center field as well, while Cabrera’s time at third base was decidedly lackluster, even if it was admirable. While the Angels, unlike the Tigers, did not make the playoffs, Trout supporters argue that this wasn’t Trout’s fault, as he was not with the team for the first month of the season. They also note that, playoffs or not, the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, while playing in a tougher division. If you ask them, they’ll also tell you that the quality of the team a player is on should not have any bearing on his qualifications for an individual award like the MVP.
The National League arguments are less contentious. The defending MVP, Ryan Braun, had another fantastic season, leading the league in homers (41), runs (108) and OPS (.987). Posey, meanwhile, led the league in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (172), which adjusts OPS for the ballpark in which he played (Posey’s home park, AT&T Park, is rougher on hitters than Miller Park in Milwaukee). Posey also catches and does it well, which gives him more defensive value than Braun. The Cardinals Yadier Molina, for his part, is perhaps the best defensive catcher in living memory. And while he did not lead the league in any offensive categories, he posted a fantastic offensive season hitting .315/.373/.501 while hitting 22 homers to accompany that other-worldly defense behind the plate.
There are some other, less statistical arguments for and against these fellows as well. Posey came back in 2012 after a gruesome leg injury. Braun, the 2011 MVP, was dogged by a positive (but ultimately overturned on appeal) PED test at the end of last year, which will likely cause many voters to discount his case and/or punish him for what happened in the offseason. Molina doesn’t have a narrative case like that, unless some voters give him a bit of extra value for helping lead the Cardinals to the playoffs after they lost future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to free agency. That’s not likely to be a major factor, however.
Ultimately MVP voters are going to be unable to resist voting for a Triple Crown winner and are going to be unable to cast votes for a guy in Ryan Braun who many view as tainted by PEDs. Molina will, as he so often has been over the course of his career, be overlooked and underrated.
As such, Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey,this writer predicts, will take home the hardware and it won’t be particularly close. Tune it to MLB Network at 6PM tonight — or just come here to HardballTalk — to find out for sure.
May 29, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Crisp is making $11 million this season and is owed $11 million next year.
May 29, 2015, 11:03 AM EDT
“. . . and that’s a good thing.”
May 29, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
“Not quite ready.”
May 29, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
Kluber is 3-0 with 50 strikeouts and two walks in his last 32 innings.
May 29, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
His elbow was very well protected for the interview.
May 29, 2015, 9:01 AM EDT
The latest radical suggestion from the baseball commentariat is like all of the others: it’s a solution in search of a problem.
May 29, 2015, 8:23 AM EDT
Great Moments in Politics.
May 29, 2015, 7:13 AM EDT
Corey Kulber’s last four starts: 3-0 with 50 strikeouts and two walks in 32 innings. Yowza.
May 28, 2015, 11:39 PM EDT
Red Sox prospect left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings in his major league debut against the Rangers on Thursday.
May 28, 2015, 10:51 PM EDT
Rockies prospect David Dahl suffered a “massive laceration” in his spleen following an outfield collision Thursday and required season-ending surgery.
May 28, 2015, 10:03 PM EDT
Hamilton got a rousing ovation from the home crowd in his return to Texas.
May 28, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was cut loose by the Marlins earlier this month after proving to be a disappointment in his three-year, $21 million contract, but the Diamondbacks are ready to give him a shot.
May 28, 2015, 8:22 PM EDT
Kazmir left his start yesterday against the Tigers after three innings with shoulder tightness, but it sounds like he might not have to miss much time.
May 28, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Tanaka has been sidelined since April 23 due to a right forearm strain and right wrist tendinitis.
May 28, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
The 39-year-old Ortiz has just one hit in his last 20 at-bats and is batting an uncharacteristic .216/.303/.377 with six home runs and 18 RBI across his first 43 games this season.
May 28, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The Indians placed Santana on the paternity leave list Thursday following the birth of his daughter.
May 28, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT
Nava has struggled all season, hitting just .159 with zero homers.
May 28, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Michael Taylor suddenly has a full-time job.
May 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Seven and two-thirds innings, 12 strikeouts and nothin’ else doin’.
May 28, 2015, 2:37 PM EDT
Great Moments in . . . wah?
- The schedule: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it 48
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 44
- Eduardo Rodriguez dazzles in major league debut 17
- Masahiro Tanaka expected to rejoin Yankees next week 4
- Alex Rodriguez is the all-time AL RBI champion. Sorta. 76
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 86
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak: Matt Adams out 3-4 months, possibly the year, with torn quad 61
- Bryce Harper leads in the first round of National League All-Star voting 29