Nov 15, 2012, 9:27 AM EST
Awards week concludes tonight when, at 6PM Eastern, the winners of the MVP Awards, as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, will be announced on MLB Network. Let’s break it down:
Everyone agrees that the AL Award is going to come down to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and the Angels Mike Trout. The National League is thought by most to be a three-horse race, with either the Giants Buster Posey, the Brewers Ryan Braun or the Cardinals Yadier Molina poised to take home the hardware.
The American League MVP has been argued about for a couple of months now. If you’re familiar with the arguments, you’re likely tired of them. If not, know that it comes down, as these things so often do, to a difference of opinion about what constitutes value.
Those who support Miguel Cabrera note that he did something which hadn’t been done for 45 years: win the Triple Crown by leading the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139), all while leading the Tigers to the playoffs. He is given extra credit by his supporters for moving to third base after playing at first base for several years, and such a move is no small trick, historically speaking.
The Trout supporters, meanwhile, point to his overall game, noting that his offensive numbers were almost as good as Cabrera’s — he hit .326 with 30 homers and 83 RBI and posted an OBP of .399 and slugged at a .564 clip — but that he (a) was a fantastic baserunner, stealing 49 bases in 54 attempts; and (b) played elite defense in center field as well, while Cabrera’s time at third base was decidedly lackluster, even if it was admirable. While the Angels, unlike the Tigers, did not make the playoffs, Trout supporters argue that this wasn’t Trout’s fault, as he was not with the team for the first month of the season. They also note that, playoffs or not, the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, while playing in a tougher division. If you ask them, they’ll also tell you that the quality of the team a player is on should not have any bearing on his qualifications for an individual award like the MVP.
The National League arguments are less contentious. The defending MVP, Ryan Braun, had another fantastic season, leading the league in homers (41), runs (108) and OPS (.987). Posey, meanwhile, led the league in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (172), which adjusts OPS for the ballpark in which he played (Posey’s home park, AT&T Park, is rougher on hitters than Miller Park in Milwaukee). Posey also catches and does it well, which gives him more defensive value than Braun. The Cardinals Yadier Molina, for his part, is perhaps the best defensive catcher in living memory. And while he did not lead the league in any offensive categories, he posted a fantastic offensive season hitting .315/.373/.501 while hitting 22 homers to accompany that other-worldly defense behind the plate.
There are some other, less statistical arguments for and against these fellows as well. Posey came back in 2012 after a gruesome leg injury. Braun, the 2011 MVP, was dogged by a positive (but ultimately overturned on appeal) PED test at the end of last year, which will likely cause many voters to discount his case and/or punish him for what happened in the offseason. Molina doesn’t have a narrative case like that, unless some voters give him a bit of extra value for helping lead the Cardinals to the playoffs after they lost future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to free agency. That’s not likely to be a major factor, however.
Ultimately MVP voters are going to be unable to resist voting for a Triple Crown winner and are going to be unable to cast votes for a guy in Ryan Braun who many view as tainted by PEDs. Molina will, as he so often has been over the course of his career, be overlooked and underrated.
As such, Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey,this writer predicts, will take home the hardware and it won’t be particularly close. Tune it to MLB Network at 6PM tonight — or just come here to HardballTalk — to find out for sure.
Dec 26, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
According to Peter Gammons, some GMs think the Giants will eventually trade for Ben Zobrist.
Dec 26, 2014, 3:49 PM EST
After seven years in the United States, Hiroki Kuroda is heading home.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:32 AM EST
Uggla hit .179 in 2013 and .149 this year.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
And it’s all thanks to a man named George Mukhobe.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
He threw 64 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 44/16 K/BB ratio for the Giants in 2014.
Dec 26, 2014, 9:35 AM EST
Remember, Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.
Dec 26, 2014, 7:32 AM EST
Actually, no, he probably wouldn’t have, Curt.
Dec 25, 2014, 3:05 PM EST
Japanese righty Chihiro Kaneko might have been one of the top starters on the open market this winter had he been posted by the Orix Buffaloes, his Nippon Professional Baseball team.
Dec 25, 2014, 1:23 PM EST
Your one-stop shop for all of the offseason signings.
Dec 25, 2014, 8:47 AM EST
And a very special friend of HBT
Dec 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EST
A good way to finish off our Christmas Eve coverage on HardballTalk …
Dec 24, 2014, 8:04 PM EST
The sought-after 26-year-old right-hander has now officially re-signed with the Hiroshima Carp for the 2015 season, according to the Japan Times.
Dec 24, 2014, 6:17 PM EST
Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that the Rockies have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with outfielder Roger Bernadina.
Dec 24, 2014, 4:21 PM EST
A toast to my big brother George: The richest man in town. Well, except for Mr. Potter. That guy is LOADED.
Dec 24, 2014, 2:00 PM EST
No, really. The news broke on line at a Honeybaked Ham store.
Dec 24, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
Based on these results, no, we will not stick to baseball. Because you clearly don’t want us to.
Dec 24, 2014, 12:02 PM EST
Buck Showalter found a way to get value out of Young in a part-time role.
Dec 24, 2014, 11:16 AM EST
Zobrist has been a regular for the Rays since 2008.
Dec 24, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
Money don’t get everything it’s true. But what it don’t get, I can’t use
Dec 24, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
San Diego has outfielders to spare.
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