Nov 15, 2012, 9:27 AM EDT
Awards week concludes tonight when, at 6PM Eastern, the winners of the MVP Awards, as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, will be announced on MLB Network. Let’s break it down:
Everyone agrees that the AL Award is going to come down to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and the Angels Mike Trout. The National League is thought by most to be a three-horse race, with either the Giants Buster Posey, the Brewers Ryan Braun or the Cardinals Yadier Molina poised to take home the hardware.
The American League MVP has been argued about for a couple of months now. If you’re familiar with the arguments, you’re likely tired of them. If not, know that it comes down, as these things so often do, to a difference of opinion about what constitutes value.
Those who support Miguel Cabrera note that he did something which hadn’t been done for 45 years: win the Triple Crown by leading the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139), all while leading the Tigers to the playoffs. He is given extra credit by his supporters for moving to third base after playing at first base for several years, and such a move is no small trick, historically speaking.
The Trout supporters, meanwhile, point to his overall game, noting that his offensive numbers were almost as good as Cabrera’s — he hit .326 with 30 homers and 83 RBI and posted an OBP of .399 and slugged at a .564 clip — but that he (a) was a fantastic baserunner, stealing 49 bases in 54 attempts; and (b) played elite defense in center field as well, while Cabrera’s time at third base was decidedly lackluster, even if it was admirable. While the Angels, unlike the Tigers, did not make the playoffs, Trout supporters argue that this wasn’t Trout’s fault, as he was not with the team for the first month of the season. They also note that, playoffs or not, the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, while playing in a tougher division. If you ask them, they’ll also tell you that the quality of the team a player is on should not have any bearing on his qualifications for an individual award like the MVP.
The National League arguments are less contentious. The defending MVP, Ryan Braun, had another fantastic season, leading the league in homers (41), runs (108) and OPS (.987). Posey, meanwhile, led the league in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (172), which adjusts OPS for the ballpark in which he played (Posey’s home park, AT&T Park, is rougher on hitters than Miller Park in Milwaukee). Posey also catches and does it well, which gives him more defensive value than Braun. The Cardinals Yadier Molina, for his part, is perhaps the best defensive catcher in living memory. And while he did not lead the league in any offensive categories, he posted a fantastic offensive season hitting .315/.373/.501 while hitting 22 homers to accompany that other-worldly defense behind the plate.
There are some other, less statistical arguments for and against these fellows as well. Posey came back in 2012 after a gruesome leg injury. Braun, the 2011 MVP, was dogged by a positive (but ultimately overturned on appeal) PED test at the end of last year, which will likely cause many voters to discount his case and/or punish him for what happened in the offseason. Molina doesn’t have a narrative case like that, unless some voters give him a bit of extra value for helping lead the Cardinals to the playoffs after they lost future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to free agency. That’s not likely to be a major factor, however.
Ultimately MVP voters are going to be unable to resist voting for a Triple Crown winner and are going to be unable to cast votes for a guy in Ryan Braun who many view as tainted by PEDs. Molina will, as he so often has been over the course of his career, be overlooked and underrated.
As such, Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey,this writer predicts, will take home the hardware and it won’t be particularly close. Tune it to MLB Network at 6PM tonight — or just come here to HardballTalk — to find out for sure.
Jul 30, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
The Brewers traded center fielder Carlos Gomez to the Astros earlier tonight along with right-hander Mike Fiers and they could be close to another deal.
Jul 30, 2015, 9:08 PM EDT
As the Mets try to pick up the pieces after their deal for Carlos Gomez fell apart, they reportedly have an interesting proposal to consider from the Reds.
Jul 30, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT
Morse is owed $8 million next season, but the Dodgers covered it in order to complete Thursday’s 13-player trade with the Marlins and Braves.
Jul 30, 2015, 7:33 PM EDT
Carlos Gomez was nearly dealt to the Mets last night before the deal fell apart, but it didn’t take long for the Brewers to find a new suitor.
Jul 30, 2015, 7:10 PM EDT
It wasn’t too long ago that we were talking about the White Sox as sellers, but now they are trying to buy a big bat.
Jul 30, 2015, 6:32 PM EDT
Angels slugger Mike Trout is back in tonight’s lineup against the Astros after missing two games with left wrist inflammation.
Jul 30, 2015, 6:09 PM EDT
After dealing ace David Price to the Blue Jays earlier today, the Tigers have traded closer Joakim Soria to the Pirates.
Jul 30, 2015, 5:05 PM EDT
Of course, experience is education too, and based on that I’m quite sure that even the most intelligent Marlins fan would be justified in being confused and thinking the organization has no clue whatsoever.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:44 PM EDT
No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:20 PM EDT
Carlos Correa has shortstop covered for a while.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:07 PM EDT
Defeat from the jaws of victory and then they got all wet.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:50 PM EDT
Nava hit .303 in 134 games for the Red Sox in 2013, playing a key role in the team’s World Series title.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:46 PM EDT
It’s like we’re in Philly all over again.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:25 PM EDT
We’re recapping all of the deals as they come down.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
He’s signed through 2019.
Jul 30, 2015, 2:17 PM EDT
This is a big trade. At least in mass.
Jul 30, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Jul 30, 2015, 1:13 PM EDT
Who else needs a veteran closer?
Jul 30, 2015, 12:39 PM EDT
The Blue Jays have their ace and now have their sights set on catching the Yankees.
Jul 30, 2015, 11:52 AM EDT
Bidding war, baby!
- Astros acquire Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Brewers 35
- Pirates bolster bullpen, pick up Joakim Soria from Tigers 10
- 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker 4
- The extraordinarily odd, 13-player Dodgers-Marlins-Braves trade is done 60
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers 111
- Both the Phillies and the Rangers did well in the Cole Hamels trade 72
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies 106
- Mets, Brewers call off reported Carlos Gomez trade 78
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (111)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)