Dec 3, 2012, 4:47 PM EDT
The Mets were strongly considering non-tendering Angel Pagan rather than pay him $5 million or so for 2012. Instead, they found a taker for him in the Giants, who sent back fellow center fielder Andres Torres and right-hander Ramon Ramirez. It proved to be a great deal for San Francisco, as Pagan proved key in the leadoff spot for the world champs. Meanwhile, the two players the Mets got in return aren’t expected back for 2013.
Pagan will be back with the Giants, of course, courtesy of the new four-year, $40 million deal he agreed to Monday. The 31-year-old’s annual salary will slightly top the $9.8 million he’s made the last three years combined.
For 2013, it seems like a worthy price. Pagan’s .288/.338/.440 line from last season matches up quite well with what he did in 2009 and ’10 before a disappointing 2011 campaign. Plus, Pagan is a fine center fielder, just a bit short of Gold Glove quality. He is a $10 million player right now.
On the other hand, it’s not at all likely that he’ll still be a $10 million player by the time 2015 and ’16 come around. At 31, Pagan should be just wrapping up his prime years now.
According to Baseball Reference, the 10 players most similar to Pagan through age 30 are Felix Jose, Roy Weatherly, Gene Moore, Alex Ochoa, Chris Singleton, Lee Maye, Johnny Grubb, Mitch Webster, Al Zarilla and Irv Noren.
Not one guy from that list was a quality regular from age 31 onwards. Grubb played eight more years and Maye and Webster lasted six more, but they were part-timers. Ochoa was all done in the majors by that age. The other nine averaged 1.7 WAR for the rest of their careers after age 31.
Perhaps that’s not the best list, though. How about this one. Pagan is one of 17 center fielders to post OPSs between .720-.780, hit fewer than 50 homers and steal more than 50 bases from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB from 28-30). Here’s how that group did from 31 onwards:
Matty Alou: .300/.339/.372, 100 OPS+ in 2,400 AB
Marvin Benard: .247/.290/.356, 71 OPS+ in 194 AB
Willie Davis: .288/.316/.425, 109 OPS+ in 3,534 AB
Steve Finley: .267/.333/.471, 106 OPS+ in 6,033 AB
Doug Glanville: .246/.281/.329, 60 OPS+ in 830 AB
Marquis Grissom: .264/.303/.416, 86 OPS+ in 3,817 AB
Ken Landreaux: .239/.295/.348, 78 OPS+ in 465 AB
Brian McRae: .218/.327/.360, 75 OPS+ in 403 AB
Amos Otis: .275/.339/.422, 109 OPS+ in 2,757 AB
Dode Paskert: .260/.340/.365, 107 OPS+ in 3,644 AB
Mickey Rivers: .304/.328/.392, 103 OPS+ in 1,719 AB
Burt Shotten: .260/.353/.320, 104 OPS+ in 2,045 AB
Roy Thomas: .265/.379/.319, 116 OPS+ in 2,266 AB
Milt Thompson: .256/.327/.359, 88 OPS+ in 1,731 AB
Cesar Tovar: .267/.329/.339, 93 OPS+ in 1,975 AB
Devon White: .272/.331/.435, 100 OPS+ in 3,232 AB
Now that’s a better list. I probably could have thrown out Thomas, Paskert and Shotton, all of whom played in the deadball era, but of the remaining 13, there are seven guys who remained pretty productive, depending on what you want your cutoff there to be. The Giants would certainly be pleased if Pagan aged like White.
Regardless, it may be worth paying Pagan $10 million to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in 2016 if he comes through again in 2013. Better if this contract had been a three-year deal, but at least he’s not overpaid immediately.
Aug 4, 2015, 8:02 AM EDT
A.J. Pierzynski is a national freakin’ treasure.
Aug 4, 2015, 7:22 AM EDT
A few weeks ago I had no idea what an Adonis Garcia even was.
Aug 3, 2015, 11:01 PM EDT
Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre hit for the cycle tonight against the Astros. And he needed just five innings to do it.
Aug 3, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
It’s August 3 and the Mets are all alone in first place in the National League East.
Aug 3, 2015, 10:03 PM EDT
Mike Hessman is the new minor league home run king.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:36 PM EDT
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg has been sidelined since July 4 with a left oblique strain, but it sounds like he’s rounding into form for the stretch run.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:13 PM EDT
The Braves are calling him day-to-day, but these type of injuries are notoriously tricky.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:01 PM EDT
Clayton Richard tossed six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Padres on Sunday, but he was designated for assignment by the Cubs today for the second time in the past two weeks.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:19 PM EDT
Matz impressed over his first two starts in the majors before going down with a partial tear of his lat muscle, but he’s starting to ramp things up in preparation for his return.
Aug 3, 2015, 7:32 PM EDT
Kipnis is expected to miss two to three weeks.
Aug 3, 2015, 6:58 PM EDT
Cubs rookie third baseman Kris Bryant was forced to exit Sunday’s game against the Brewers after feeling dizzy on a hard slide into second base, but he’s back in the starting lineup for tonight’s series opener against the Pirates.
Aug 3, 2015, 6:01 PM EDT
Capps has quietly been one of the game’s most dominant relievers this season.
Aug 3, 2015, 5:19 PM EDT
Out since late May with a neck injury.
Aug 3, 2015, 5:14 PM EDT
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Aug 3, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
He is now calling Jose Bautista “a good man and a great human being.”
Aug 3, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
The newest Blue Jay struck out 11 in eight innings of work.
Aug 3, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Panik’s breakout season has been put on hold.
Aug 3, 2015, 3:06 PM EDT
Dating back to 2013 he’s hit .337 with a .900 OPS off lefties.
Aug 3, 2015, 2:53 PM EDT
Power-hitting third baseman/first baseman.
Aug 3, 2015, 2:43 PM EDT
It’s not necessarily likely, but since it isn’t a torn UCL there’s at least a chance he could make it back.
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 10
- Adrian Beltre needs just five innings for the third cycle of his career 8
- Mets blow out Marlins, move past Nationals for first place in NL East 17
- Yordano Ventura calls Jose Bautista a “nobody” and accuses him of stealing signs 72
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 87
- The benches cleared in Toronto, too 79
- The Reds’ and Pirates’ benches cleared after Brandon Phillips was hit with a pitch 65
- Reminder: even though the trade deadline has passed, trades can still happen 13
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (205)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (113)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (92)