Dec 3, 2012, 4:47 PM EST
The Mets were strongly considering non-tendering Angel Pagan rather than pay him $5 million or so for 2012. Instead, they found a taker for him in the Giants, who sent back fellow center fielder Andres Torres and right-hander Ramon Ramirez. It proved to be a great deal for San Francisco, as Pagan proved key in the leadoff spot for the world champs. Meanwhile, the two players the Mets got in return aren’t expected back for 2013.
Pagan will be back with the Giants, of course, courtesy of the new four-year, $40 million deal he agreed to Monday. The 31-year-old’s annual salary will slightly top the $9.8 million he’s made the last three years combined.
For 2013, it seems like a worthy price. Pagan’s .288/.338/.440 line from last season matches up quite well with what he did in 2009 and ’10 before a disappointing 2011 campaign. Plus, Pagan is a fine center fielder, just a bit short of Gold Glove quality. He is a $10 million player right now.
On the other hand, it’s not at all likely that he’ll still be a $10 million player by the time 2015 and ’16 come around. At 31, Pagan should be just wrapping up his prime years now.
According to Baseball Reference, the 10 players most similar to Pagan through age 30 are Felix Jose, Roy Weatherly, Gene Moore, Alex Ochoa, Chris Singleton, Lee Maye, Johnny Grubb, Mitch Webster, Al Zarilla and Irv Noren.
Not one guy from that list was a quality regular from age 31 onwards. Grubb played eight more years and Maye and Webster lasted six more, but they were part-timers. Ochoa was all done in the majors by that age. The other nine averaged 1.7 WAR for the rest of their careers after age 31.
Perhaps that’s not the best list, though. How about this one. Pagan is one of 17 center fielders to post OPSs between .720-.780, hit fewer than 50 homers and steal more than 50 bases from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB from 28-30). Here’s how that group did from 31 onwards:
Matty Alou: .300/.339/.372, 100 OPS+ in 2,400 AB
Marvin Benard: .247/.290/.356, 71 OPS+ in 194 AB
Willie Davis: .288/.316/.425, 109 OPS+ in 3,534 AB
Steve Finley: .267/.333/.471, 106 OPS+ in 6,033 AB
Doug Glanville: .246/.281/.329, 60 OPS+ in 830 AB
Marquis Grissom: .264/.303/.416, 86 OPS+ in 3,817 AB
Ken Landreaux: .239/.295/.348, 78 OPS+ in 465 AB
Brian McRae: .218/.327/.360, 75 OPS+ in 403 AB
Amos Otis: .275/.339/.422, 109 OPS+ in 2,757 AB
Dode Paskert: .260/.340/.365, 107 OPS+ in 3,644 AB
Mickey Rivers: .304/.328/.392, 103 OPS+ in 1,719 AB
Burt Shotten: .260/.353/.320, 104 OPS+ in 2,045 AB
Roy Thomas: .265/.379/.319, 116 OPS+ in 2,266 AB
Milt Thompson: .256/.327/.359, 88 OPS+ in 1,731 AB
Cesar Tovar: .267/.329/.339, 93 OPS+ in 1,975 AB
Devon White: .272/.331/.435, 100 OPS+ in 3,232 AB
Now that’s a better list. I probably could have thrown out Thomas, Paskert and Shotton, all of whom played in the deadball era, but of the remaining 13, there are seven guys who remained pretty productive, depending on what you want your cutoff there to be. The Giants would certainly be pleased if Pagan aged like White.
Regardless, it may be worth paying Pagan $10 million to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in 2016 if he comes through again in 2013. Better if this contract had been a three-year deal, but at least he’s not overpaid immediately.
Mar 4, 2015, 4:50 PM EST
Mar 4, 2015, 4:18 PM EST
While it’s clear that the two do not see eye to eye, Billy Bean is choosing to look on the bright side of yesterday’s comments from Daniel Murphy.
Mar 4, 2015, 3:54 PM EST
A-Rod singled in his first at-bat.
Mar 4, 2015, 3:20 PM EST
What’s a churro dog, you ask? Click, my pretties. Click!
Mar 4, 2015, 1:26 PM EST
Athletes oftentimes, don’t see reporters as people. Reporters, oftentimes, don’t see athletes as people. Reporters, however have a duty of objectivity athletes don’t have.
Mar 4, 2015, 12:26 PM EST
He’ll miss at least a week.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:47 AM EST
The move leaves Craig Gentry and Sam Fuld to platoon in center field.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:20 AM EST
Billingsley hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since way back in April of 2013.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:05 AM EST
Today’s news sucks for Joel Hanrahan, but it’s a good basis for an explainer.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:52 AM EST
Wieters underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in June.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
Now that David Price is out of the picture the Rays need a new Opening Day starter.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:59 AM EST
. . . it’s worth remembering that Schilling himself has some issues when it comes to sensitivity and enlightenment on social media.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:30 AM EST
Let us applaud one writer’s brave effort to battle the beast that is A-Rod Derangement Syndrome.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:03 AM EST
Juan Marichal’s got nothin’ on this pitcher from Murray State.
Mar 4, 2015, 8:24 AM EST
Terrible news that will keep Joel Hanrahan off the mound for at least another year.
Mar 4, 2015, 6:54 AM EST
I wasn’t aware that one could “disagree” with facts. But there we are.
Mar 3, 2015, 10:57 PM EST
It was a successful afternoon in pretty much every way at Fenway South. Except maybe one …
Mar 3, 2015, 9:44 PM EST
The expectation is that he will have to sit out the entire 2015 season.
Mar 3, 2015, 8:31 PM EST
The deal does not include an invitation to major league spring training, so Beato won’t be under consideration for one of the spots in the Orioles’ Opening Day bullpen.
Mar 3, 2015, 7:28 PM EST
Yoenis Cespedes made his presence felt around Tigers camp with this fourth-inning grand slam in Tuesday afternoon’s Grapefruit League opener against the visiting Orioles …
- Daniel Murphy on Billy Bean: “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual” 336
- Blue Jays sign Dayan Viciedo to a minor league deal 8
- Chris Sale will be sidelined for three weeks with foot fracture 11
- Aramis Ramirez says 2015 will be his last year 33
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 307
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Daniel Murphy on Billy Bean: “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual” (337)
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (307)
- Curt Schilling lowers the boom on some men tweeting threats against his daughter (137)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Ichiro is happy to be away from Joe Girardi (88)