Dec 3, 2012, 4:47 PM EDT
The Mets were strongly considering non-tendering Angel Pagan rather than pay him $5 million or so for 2012. Instead, they found a taker for him in the Giants, who sent back fellow center fielder Andres Torres and right-hander Ramon Ramirez. It proved to be a great deal for San Francisco, as Pagan proved key in the leadoff spot for the world champs. Meanwhile, the two players the Mets got in return aren’t expected back for 2013.
Pagan will be back with the Giants, of course, courtesy of the new four-year, $40 million deal he agreed to Monday. The 31-year-old’s annual salary will slightly top the $9.8 million he’s made the last three years combined.
For 2013, it seems like a worthy price. Pagan’s .288/.338/.440 line from last season matches up quite well with what he did in 2009 and ’10 before a disappointing 2011 campaign. Plus, Pagan is a fine center fielder, just a bit short of Gold Glove quality. He is a $10 million player right now.
On the other hand, it’s not at all likely that he’ll still be a $10 million player by the time 2015 and ’16 come around. At 31, Pagan should be just wrapping up his prime years now.
According to Baseball Reference, the 10 players most similar to Pagan through age 30 are Felix Jose, Roy Weatherly, Gene Moore, Alex Ochoa, Chris Singleton, Lee Maye, Johnny Grubb, Mitch Webster, Al Zarilla and Irv Noren.
Not one guy from that list was a quality regular from age 31 onwards. Grubb played eight more years and Maye and Webster lasted six more, but they were part-timers. Ochoa was all done in the majors by that age. The other nine averaged 1.7 WAR for the rest of their careers after age 31.
Perhaps that’s not the best list, though. How about this one. Pagan is one of 17 center fielders to post OPSs between .720-.780, hit fewer than 50 homers and steal more than 50 bases from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB from 28-30). Here’s how that group did from 31 onwards:
Matty Alou: .300/.339/.372, 100 OPS+ in 2,400 AB
Marvin Benard: .247/.290/.356, 71 OPS+ in 194 AB
Willie Davis: .288/.316/.425, 109 OPS+ in 3,534 AB
Steve Finley: .267/.333/.471, 106 OPS+ in 6,033 AB
Doug Glanville: .246/.281/.329, 60 OPS+ in 830 AB
Marquis Grissom: .264/.303/.416, 86 OPS+ in 3,817 AB
Ken Landreaux: .239/.295/.348, 78 OPS+ in 465 AB
Brian McRae: .218/.327/.360, 75 OPS+ in 403 AB
Amos Otis: .275/.339/.422, 109 OPS+ in 2,757 AB
Dode Paskert: .260/.340/.365, 107 OPS+ in 3,644 AB
Mickey Rivers: .304/.328/.392, 103 OPS+ in 1,719 AB
Burt Shotten: .260/.353/.320, 104 OPS+ in 2,045 AB
Roy Thomas: .265/.379/.319, 116 OPS+ in 2,266 AB
Milt Thompson: .256/.327/.359, 88 OPS+ in 1,731 AB
Cesar Tovar: .267/.329/.339, 93 OPS+ in 1,975 AB
Devon White: .272/.331/.435, 100 OPS+ in 3,232 AB
Now that’s a better list. I probably could have thrown out Thomas, Paskert and Shotton, all of whom played in the deadball era, but of the remaining 13, there are seven guys who remained pretty productive, depending on what you want your cutoff there to be. The Giants would certainly be pleased if Pagan aged like White.
Regardless, it may be worth paying Pagan $10 million to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in 2016 if he comes through again in 2013. Better if this contract had been a three-year deal, but at least he’s not overpaid immediately.
Aug 23, 2014, 4:12 PM EDT
The Blue Jays were allowed to challenge a play after a batter stepped into the batter’s box and the pitcher stepped onto the pitcher’s mound, despite what Section II.D of the replay rules states.
Aug 23, 2014, 4:05 PM EDT
As expected, Bartolo Colon has been placed on revocable waivers by the Mets.
Aug 23, 2014, 3:10 PM EDT
Masahiro Tanaka is making progress towards a September return, at which point the Yankees could utilize a six-man rotation.
Aug 23, 2014, 2:15 PM EDT
Jacob Turner will start on Wednesday, taking over Edwin Jackson’s spot in the Cubs’ starting rotation.
Aug 23, 2014, 1:24 PM EDT
Saturday’s match-up between the Rays and Blue Jays pits Jeremy Hellickson against Mark Buehrle, who are very dissimilar.
Aug 23, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Outfielder Nate Schierholtz is expected to join the Nationals in time for Saturday afternoon’s game against the Giants.
Aug 23, 2014, 12:05 PM EDT
Xander Bogaerts was hit in the head by a Felix Hernandez pitch on Friday night, but the rookie says he is fine. He is not in Saturday afternoon’s lineup.
Aug 23, 2014, 12:04 PM EDT
The Reds have lost seven straight and are currently on pace for their worst season since 2008, but Walt Jocketty is expected to return as general manager next season.
Aug 23, 2014, 11:05 AM EDT
Nationals right-hander Doug Fister revealed last night that he had skin cancer removed from the left side of his neck this week.
Aug 23, 2014, 10:12 AM EDT
Many around the game were underwhelmed when the Rays acquired Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames in the three-team David Price deal last month. It will probably take years before we can make a fair assessment, but the early returns are positive for Tampa Bay.
Aug 23, 2014, 9:32 AM EDT
The Tigers turned to infielder Andrew Romine to pitch in a blowout last night.
Aug 23, 2014, 8:56 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday around MLB, including an important AL West battle.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:55 PM EDT
Garrett Richards had surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, meaning he’ll be out between six and nine months.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
The frustrating blackout restrictions could come to an end as early as 2015, according to Maury Brown of Forbes.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
Felix Hernandez has struck out 200-plus batters in each of the last six seasons, something no other starting pitcher will have done when the season is over.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:17 PM EDT
Mike Minor is on point in Cincinnati against the Reds on Friday night.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
The Giants don’t have any plans to move Buster Posey out from behind the plate just yet, even though his numbers are much better as a first baseman.
Aug 22, 2014, 8:20 PM EDT
The Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate will reportedly move from Albuquerque, New Mexico to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma for the 2015 season.
Aug 22, 2014, 7:25 PM EDT
Kyle Lohse was dealing with a sore right ankle, but is expected to rejoin the Brewers’ rotation on Monday to start against the Padres.
Aug 22, 2014, 6:33 PM EDT
Manny Machado’s season is likely over, as he is expected to undergo season-ending knee surgery within a week, according to a report.
- Rays play Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays under protest 0
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 10
- Mike Minor loses his no-hit bid with two outs in the eighth 5
- Manny Machado to undergo season-ending knee surgery 33
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare 242
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million 96
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 31
- The Nationals extend their winning streak to 10 games with another walk-off victory 12
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare (242)
- Mike Matheny addresses turmoil in Ferguson: “It’s a sad situation. It’s a tough situation for our city” (127)
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million (96)
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. (92)
- Even if he’s reinstated, does Pete Rose make the Hall of Fame? (86)