Dec 3, 2012, 4:47 PM EDT
The Mets were strongly considering non-tendering Angel Pagan rather than pay him $5 million or so for 2012. Instead, they found a taker for him in the Giants, who sent back fellow center fielder Andres Torres and right-hander Ramon Ramirez. It proved to be a great deal for San Francisco, as Pagan proved key in the leadoff spot for the world champs. Meanwhile, the two players the Mets got in return aren’t expected back for 2013.
Pagan will be back with the Giants, of course, courtesy of the new four-year, $40 million deal he agreed to Monday. The 31-year-old’s annual salary will slightly top the $9.8 million he’s made the last three years combined.
For 2013, it seems like a worthy price. Pagan’s .288/.338/.440 line from last season matches up quite well with what he did in 2009 and ’10 before a disappointing 2011 campaign. Plus, Pagan is a fine center fielder, just a bit short of Gold Glove quality. He is a $10 million player right now.
On the other hand, it’s not at all likely that he’ll still be a $10 million player by the time 2015 and ’16 come around. At 31, Pagan should be just wrapping up his prime years now.
According to Baseball Reference, the 10 players most similar to Pagan through age 30 are Felix Jose, Roy Weatherly, Gene Moore, Alex Ochoa, Chris Singleton, Lee Maye, Johnny Grubb, Mitch Webster, Al Zarilla and Irv Noren.
Not one guy from that list was a quality regular from age 31 onwards. Grubb played eight more years and Maye and Webster lasted six more, but they were part-timers. Ochoa was all done in the majors by that age. The other nine averaged 1.7 WAR for the rest of their careers after age 31.
Perhaps that’s not the best list, though. How about this one. Pagan is one of 17 center fielders to post OPSs between .720-.780, hit fewer than 50 homers and steal more than 50 bases from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB from 28-30). Here’s how that group did from 31 onwards:
Matty Alou: .300/.339/.372, 100 OPS+ in 2,400 AB
Marvin Benard: .247/.290/.356, 71 OPS+ in 194 AB
Willie Davis: .288/.316/.425, 109 OPS+ in 3,534 AB
Steve Finley: .267/.333/.471, 106 OPS+ in 6,033 AB
Doug Glanville: .246/.281/.329, 60 OPS+ in 830 AB
Marquis Grissom: .264/.303/.416, 86 OPS+ in 3,817 AB
Ken Landreaux: .239/.295/.348, 78 OPS+ in 465 AB
Brian McRae: .218/.327/.360, 75 OPS+ in 403 AB
Amos Otis: .275/.339/.422, 109 OPS+ in 2,757 AB
Dode Paskert: .260/.340/.365, 107 OPS+ in 3,644 AB
Mickey Rivers: .304/.328/.392, 103 OPS+ in 1,719 AB
Burt Shotten: .260/.353/.320, 104 OPS+ in 2,045 AB
Roy Thomas: .265/.379/.319, 116 OPS+ in 2,266 AB
Milt Thompson: .256/.327/.359, 88 OPS+ in 1,731 AB
Cesar Tovar: .267/.329/.339, 93 OPS+ in 1,975 AB
Devon White: .272/.331/.435, 100 OPS+ in 3,232 AB
Now that’s a better list. I probably could have thrown out Thomas, Paskert and Shotton, all of whom played in the deadball era, but of the remaining 13, there are seven guys who remained pretty productive, depending on what you want your cutoff there to be. The Giants would certainly be pleased if Pagan aged like White.
Regardless, it may be worth paying Pagan $10 million to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in 2016 if he comes through again in 2013. Better if this contract had been a three-year deal, but at least he’s not overpaid immediately.
May 21, 2013, 3:51 PM EDT
What type of MLB player do you want to be?
May 21, 2013, 3:40 PM EDT
The NFL just granted Super Bowls L and LI to San Carlos, California and Houston, respectively. Also in the running was Miami, but it was shafted. Why? Because neither Miami nor the State of Florida would pony up taxpayer dollars for upgrades to the Sun Life Stadium. Why wouldn’t they? Florio gives the overview, but…
May 21, 2013, 2:46 PM EDT
For the second time in a month Daric Barton was placed on waivers by the A’s and passed through without being claimed by any of the other 29 teams. Our own Bill Baer wondered over the weekend if Barton could be a fit for the Mets or other teams getting little production from first base,…
May 21, 2013, 2:31 PM EDT
The late Stan-the-Man’s house is on the market. Built in 1962 and, not surprisingly given the age of its owner when he passed, it rather looks it. But like Joe Morgan’s dated home (a) the bones are good and if you just redid the place it’d be fine; ad (b) it’d be kinda cool to…
May 21, 2013, 2:14 PM EDT
Patrick Corbin was never considered an elite prospect and had a decent but unspectacular rookie season for the Diamondbacks last year, throwing 107 innings with a 4.54 ERA and 86/25 K/BB ratio. He had to compete for the fifth starter job this spring and now … well, it’s safe to say his rotation spot is…
May 21, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
Eh, probably not. But such speculation is way more fun than Dodgers and Angels baseball these days. Also: I inexplicably used the term “legit” twice in this video. Sorry, everyone.
May 21, 2013, 1:30 PM EDT
Paul Lukas of UniWatch figured out that MLB is putting all teams in uniforms with camouflage design highlights on Memorial Day. He figured it out because the team store for each team has the jerseys on sale, with the note “as worn on-field, Memorial Day, May 27, 2013.” I’m informed by an MLB source that the…
May 21, 2013, 1:20 PM EDT
Indians closer Chris Perez has been pretty active on Twitter over the years, but apparently the negative comments following a blown save Saturday and another poor outing Monday led him to delete the account last night. I can’t imagine having to deal with the angry, ugly comments that athletes receive on Twitter every day, let…
May 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Matt Kemp is an Oklahoma native, so the tragedy in Oklahoma City yesterday certainly hit home for him. He’s doing something about it: I’m giving $1000 for tonight’s HR and every HR until the All-Star break for the victims of my hometown in OKC. #PrayforOklahoma — Matt Kemp (@TheRealMattKemp) May 21, 2013 So too is…
May 21, 2013, 12:52 PM EDT
When last we saw Samuel Deduno he was playing hero for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, beating the United States and then Puerto Rico to win the title. He ended up not making the Twins out of spring training because of a groin injury suffered during the WBC, but Deduno is healthy…
May 21, 2013, 12:30 PM EDT
I know it’s hard to believe that a guy who alienated his entire clubhouse in Atlanta and then made headlines buy putting homophobic slurs on his eyeblack in Toronto did something douchey, but in this case it actually happened. Yunel Escobar, ladies and gents, playing Jedi master to Jordany Valdespin‘s padawan, strutting after a home…
May 21, 2013, 11:51 AM EDT
Logan Morrison began a minor-league rehab assignment last night, going 2-for-5 with two singles at Single-A. Morrison has been on the disabled list all season as he recovers from September knee surgery and he hasn’t played for the Marlins since last July. He’s already behind the initial timetable laid out, but barring more setbacks Morrison…
May 21, 2013, 11:33 AM EDT
People who know a bit about EPL soccer sometimes make comparisons between the big English soccer teams and the big major league baseball teams in order to explain the dynamic of that league to we soccer ignoramuses. Like, I once heard someone say Man U. was like the Yankees. Or maybe Arsenal. And Chelsea was…
May 21, 2013, 11:19 AM EDT
Jim Johnson being nearly flawless in the closer role played a huge part in the Orioles’ unexpected success last season, but suddenly he’s really struggling. Johnson converted 35 straight saves from July 30, 2012 to May 13, 2013, during which time he threw 44 innings with a 0.61 ERA. That streak came to an end…
May 21, 2013, 11:02 AM EDT
I guess whether this is truly “must-click” depends on how you roll. But if you like to look at once-young, once-handsome athletes in swimsuits, towels and, in a couple of cases, nothing but strategically-posed thighs — or if you’re not necessarily into that but are secure enough in your masculinity to appreciate how hilarious such…
May 21, 2013, 10:47 AM EDT
Josh Johnson made his first minor-league rehab start yesterday, throwing three innings of one-run ball at Single-A. Johnson, who’s been out since April 21 with a strained triceps, struck out five and walked zero while allowing three hits against the Mets’ affiliate. Johnson had hoped to be back in the Blue Jays’ rotation by now,…
May 21, 2013, 10:30 AM EDT
This is a short article in the Pioneer Press, but two nuggets from it: Justin Morneau is pretty ambivalent about autographs because he knows most of the people trying to get them are memorabilia guys who are going to turn around and sell it; and His autographs are very legible because Harmon Killebrew told him…
May 21, 2013, 10:15 AM EDT
Corey Hart is eligible to come off the disabled list on May 30, but Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that the Brewers first baseman won’t be ready to return from right knee surgery by then. However, he has progressed enough to take batting practice yesterday and doing some running on the field. There’s still no…
May 21, 2013, 9:46 AM EDT
I heard someone mention this yesterday but thought they were joking. Andy Martino of the Daily News, however, quotes Phillies broadcaster Rickie Ricardo, who claims that Aroldis Chapman ate 18 cream cheese-guava pastries before Sunday’s game. The game in which he blew the save, giving up a walkoff homer to Freddy Galvis: “Could you imagine cream…
May 21, 2013, 9:15 AM EDT
Some guys have 80 velocity, some guys have 80 movement. Some guys have 80 lack of impulse control: Ryan Mattheus will be placed on the disabled list after breaking his right hand Sunday in San Diego, an injury that didn’t occur during the Nationals’ 13-4 loss to the Padres but afterward when the right-hander punched…
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