Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT
Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).
Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.
So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:
Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB
So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.
Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.
May 27, 2015, 8:42 AM EDT
Major League Baseball will likely fine Cash for his postgame comments. Because, while umpires don’t have much apparent accountability for their actions, managers do.
May 27, 2015, 7:21 AM EDT
Four walkoff wins last night.
May 26, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took what might be the final step before a rehab assignment Tuesday afternoon at Oakland’s O.Co Coliseum …
May 26, 2015, 10:32 PM EDT
Brewers shortstop Jean Segura appeared to be in for an extended absence when he landed on the disabled list May 14 with a fracture in the pinkie on his throwing hand …
May 26, 2015, 9:56 PM EDT
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says the trade is done and is only awaiting approval from the commissioner’s office.
May 26, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
Check out this laser shot that Hunter Pence crushed Tuesday night at Milwaukee’s Miller Park …
May 26, 2015, 9:21 PM EDT
Great news on rehabbing ace Jose Fernandez.
May 26, 2015, 8:13 PM EDT
This wasn’t really a great catch by Josh Harrison because he bungled the route, but it did look cool …
May 26, 2015, 7:49 PM EDT
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com Monday that he is tired of fans who “bitch and complain” about the moves made by his front office. He went on an apology tour for those comments Tuesday …
May 26, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Mets ace Matt Harvey had the worst start of his young major league career on Saturday against the Pirates, surrendering seven runs in four innings, and manager Terry Collins indicated a few days later that Harvey is fighting through a period of “dead arm.”
May 26, 2015, 6:12 PM EDT
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips missed back-to-back games earlier this month after being diagnosed with a painful case of turf toe in his left foot, and now the problem has resurfaced.
May 26, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Lucroy finished fourth in the MVP voting last season.
May 26, 2015, 4:55 PM EDT
Charter Communications customers in Glendale, Burbank, Malibu and Long Beach will be getting the Dodgers’ network within the next few weeks.
May 26, 2015, 4:37 PM EDT
McGehee and his $4.8 million salary predictably cleared waivers.
May 26, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Five starting positions out of nine slots currently belong to Royals players.
May 26, 2015, 2:48 PM EDT
Dan Jennings’ managerial career is off to an interesting start.
May 26, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Good news for the Reds’ biggest trade chit — er, I mean, for their ace.
May 26, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
In other news, why do we take pitchers at their word when they claim that they’re not really trying to get something extra on the ball?
May 26, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
Signed to a two-year, $16 million deal this offseason, Morse has hit just .211 with two homers and a .557 OPS in 37 games.
May 26, 2015, 1:28 PM EDT
Bundy was scratched from his scheduled start at Double-A.
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 9
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 9
- Ruben Amaro apologizes for comments about fans, admits he may have been late on rebuild 23
- Jonathan Lucroy expected to rejoin the Brewers on Monday 0
- More drama in Miami: Marlins demote third base coach Brett Butler after “confusion” over signs 34
- Ruben Amaro dismisses fans who “bitch and complain” about the Phillies’ moves 70
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 68
- Reds finally shut down Devin Mesoraco seven weeks after hip injury, surgery may be needed 7
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (132)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (96)