Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT
Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).
Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.
So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:
Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB
So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.
Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:58 PM EDT
A’s left fielder Coco Crisp has been bothered by discomfort in the middle of his right arm for much of spring training, limiting him to seven Cactus League games. And the injury isn’t getting any better.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:02 PM EDT
Is the fun over in Cincy?
Mar 31, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
As first reported by beat writer Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have acquired right-handed starter Erasmo Ramirez from the Mariners in exchange for left-hander Mike Montgomery.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:40 PM EDT
Gregerson figured to get the job after signing a three-year, $18.5 million free agent contract with Houston in early December and he pitched well enough this spring to fend off any potential competition.
Mar 31, 2015, 8:36 PM EDT
The 20-year-old right-hander announced the news on his Twitter account Tuesday …
Mar 31, 2015, 7:41 PM EDT
Baseball is not dying.
Mar 31, 2015, 6:54 PM EDT
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com shares the news …
Mar 31, 2015, 6:09 PM EDT
Adam Wainwright tossed a spring-high 93 pitches in a Grapefruit League appearance Tuesday afternoon against the Marlins and was officially declared the Cardinals’ Opening Night starter after the outing by manager Mike Matheny.
Mar 31, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
Lefties never die. But Mijares is going to have a harder time now.
Mar 31, 2015, 4:42 PM EDT
Why is this man smiling when his team appears to be destined for last place?
Mar 31, 2015, 4:17 PM EDT
“Sheer panic … things got very bad, very quickly.”
Mar 31, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Nice little loophole.
Mar 31, 2015, 3:02 PM EDT
WIll this man be smiling in October?
Mar 31, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
Chavez appeared in 80 games for the Mariners last season.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
It’s supposedly just an arm cramp, but Brad Ausmus isn’t ruling out the DL.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
A long-overdue measure will, apparently, soon be in place.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
Wright had a rough spring, allowing 11 runs in eight appearances.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
With this team, they’ll need it.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
Petricka saved 14 games with a 2.96 ERA and 55/33 K/BB ratio in 73 innings last season.
- 2015 Preview: Cincinnati Reds 11
- The average Major League Baseball salary this year will be more than $4 million — a record 16
- 2015 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays 17
- The Cubs assign Kris Bryant and Addison Russell to the minors, option Javier Baez as well 70
- 2015 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks 8
- 2015 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays 69
- Mariners prospect Victor Sanchez has died 26
- 2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox 15
- Ex-Cardinals outfielder Curt Ford was assaulted in St. Louis and told to “go back to Ferguson” (122)
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (118)
- The MLBPA releases a statement on Kris Bryant, mentions possible litigation (90)
- Rob Manfred says it would be hard to reinstate Pete Rose in a limited way (89)
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? (88)