Skip to content

A look at the future of Shane Victorino

Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT

Shane Victorino Getty Images

Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).

Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.

So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:

Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB

So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.

Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.

Latest Posts
  1. Travis Ishikawa will be Giants’ left fielder in Wild Card game

    Sep 30, 2014, 7:31 PM EDT

    ishikawa_travis AP

    Ishikawa is 31 years old and has started a grand total of three career games in the outfield.

  2. Clay Buchholz undergoes surgery on right knee

    Sep 30, 2014, 7:08 PM EDT

    clay buchholz getty Getty Images

    Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz underwent surgery Tuesday to correct a right meniscus injury that bothered him off and on throughout the 2014 season. He should have a fairly normal winter.

  3. Clayton Kershaw “likely” to pitch on short rest if needed

    Sep 30, 2014, 7:01 PM EDT

    Clayton Kershaw AP

    Kershaw and Greinke four times in five games?

  4. Cubs expect Javier Baez to be their Opening Day second baseman despite rookie struggles

    Sep 30, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT

    javier baez Getty Images

    Javier Baez hit just .169 with 95 strikeouts in 52 games as a 21-year-old rookie.

  5. Josh Hamilton declares himself ready for the ALDS

    Sep 30, 2014, 6:13 PM EDT

    josh hamilton getty Getty Images

    Josh Hamilton has played in just one game since September 4 due to shoulder, chest, and rib cage injuries, but the 33-year-old outfielder took batting practice, threw some long toss, and ran the bases on Tuesday afternoon and has declared himself ready for the ALDS, which begins on Thursday.

  6. The Cardinals have the Best Fans In Baseball

    Sep 30, 2014, 5:29 PM EDT

    old TV

    It’s all about how you define the term “best,” of course.

  7. Dee Gordon cleared to play for Dodgers after hip injury

    Sep 30, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT

    Dee Gordon AP

    Gordon led the NL in steals and triples this season.

  8. Manny Ramirez, Cubs assistant hitting coach?

    Sep 30, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT

    Manny Ramirez AP

    It’s not as crazy as it may seem.

  9. Marlins president says Giancarlo Stanton will be on the Marlins next year

    Sep 30, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT

    giancarlo stanton getty Getty Images

    Giancarlo Stanton is about to get expensive. But the Marlins are not inclined to deal him.

  10. Carlos Beltran had elbow surgery

    Sep 30, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT

    beltran getty Getty Images

    He should be good to go by spring training.

  11. Wild Card Game: A’s vs. Royals lineups

    Sep 30, 2014, 3:05 PM EDT

    Royals WIld Card Game AP

    Some surprises for Oakland. Zero surprises for Kansas City.

  12. Pouliot’s 2014 National League awards picks

    Sep 30, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT

    clayton kershaw getty Getty Images

    You know Kershaw is the Cy Young. Is he the MVP, too?

  13. Tigers center fielder Rajai Davis could miss ALDS with groin injury

    Sep 30, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT

    Rajai Davis AP AP

    Davis isn’t a big name, but he stepped in as the primary center fielder when the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team swap that netted them David Price from the Rays.

  14. Guy will give away primo Nats playoff tickets in exchange for a threesome

    Sep 30, 2014, 2:03 PM EDT

    MLB-Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

    I’d say “act like you been there before,” but I’m guessing this guy has never, ever been there before.

  15. Odds have A’s and Royals as a coin-flip in the Wild Card playoff game

    Sep 30, 2014, 1:47 PM EDT

    gambling poster

    And the odds-makers expect a low-scoring game, too.

  16. The Yankees are going to give Brian Cashman a contract extension

    Sep 30, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT

    Brian Cashman Brian Cashman

    You cool with this, Yankees fans? Not sure I’d be cool with this.

  17. Tigers’ playoff rotation has Scherzer in Game 1 and Verlander, not Price, in Game 2

    Sep 30, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT

    ALCS - Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox - Game Two Getty Images

    Rick Porcello is in line to start Game 4, with Anibal Sanchez in the bullpen.

  18. HBT Daily: A’s vs. Royals. Jon Lester vs. Big Game James. WHO YA GOT?!

    Sep 30, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT

    james shields getty Getty Images

    Wild Card games are basically coin tosses, but someone’s gotta have an edge, right?

  19. No, it’s not a problem that Derek Jeter is baseball’s most popular player

    Sep 30, 2014, 12:40 PM EDT

    Derek Jeter Getty Images

    Nate Silver — a guy who has literally made a living poking holes in people’s dubious analysis — traffics in some of his own.

Featured video

Do Royals or A's have the edge tonight?
Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. D. Jeter (3524)
  2. C. Kershaw (2586)
  3. R. Martin (2491)
  4. A. Rodriguez (2205)
  5. J. Hamilton (1992)
  1. J. Altuve (1973)
  2. D. Gordon (1843)
  3. M. Trout (1836)
  4. D. Ortiz (1832)
  5. I. Suzuki (1740)