Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT
Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).
Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.
So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:
Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB
So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.
Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:05 PM EDT
The price is too high.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:02 PM EDT
Cardinals’ bullpen is suddenly stacked with closers and ex-closers.
Jul 31, 2015, 11:11 AM EDT
Maybe he’ll see Daniel Norris coming the other way in his van?
Jul 31, 2015, 10:39 AM EDT
Milwaukee receives a starting pitcher prospect in return.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:49 AM EDT
Or, the very least, want the Padres to think they are so as to bring Craig Kimbrel’s price down.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:25 AM EDT
They have the worst ERA in the AL, so any starter would be a nice addition.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:18 AM EDT
Another torn quadriceps muscle for the All-Star left fielder.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:55 AM EDT
I feel like Ken Caminiti has to be involved.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:51 AM EDT
Jay Bruce instead of Carlos Gomez?
Jul 31, 2015, 8:43 AM EDT
He’d be both a 2015 and a future move.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:18 AM EDT
The Yankees bullpen is already a strength. Will it be stronger by 4pm today?
Jul 31, 2015, 7:34 AM EDT
In a night of several walkoffs — including a walkoff walk — Jason Castro had the biggest, helping Houston complete the sweep of the Angels.
Jul 31, 2015, 3:22 AM EDT
It’s fortunate this one didn’t get ugly.
Jul 31, 2015, 2:51 AM EDT
We’re recapping all of the deals as they come down.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:24 AM EDT
Leake has a 3.56 ERA and 90/34 K/BB ratio in 136 2/3 innings over 21 starts this season.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:00 AM EDT
The Astros completed a three-game sweep of the Angels and now hold a two-game lead in the American League West.
Jul 30, 2015, 11:29 PM EDT
Gallardo isn’t going into the trade deadline on a high note, as he has allowed five runs in three straight starts.
Jul 30, 2015, 10:55 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks are trying to make a play for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman.
Jul 30, 2015, 10:20 PM EDT
It was made possible due to a misplay by Jacoby Ellsbury in center field.
Jul 30, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
The Brewers traded center fielder Carlos Gomez to the Astros earlier tonight along with right-hander Mike Fiers and they could be close to another deal.
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 37
- 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker 6
- Giants to acquire Mike Leake from Reds 30
- Astros acquire Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Brewers 44
- Pirates bolster bullpen, pick up Joakim Soria from Tigers 12
- The extraordinarily odd, 13-player Dodgers-Marlins-Braves trade is done 62
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers 111
- Both the Phillies and the Rangers did well in the Cole Hamels trade 73
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (111)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)