Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT
Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).
Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.
So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:
Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB
So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.
Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.
Sep 30, 2014, 7:31 PM EDT
Ishikawa is 31 years old and has started a grand total of three career games in the outfield.
Sep 30, 2014, 7:08 PM EDT
Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz underwent surgery Tuesday to correct a right meniscus injury that bothered him off and on throughout the 2014 season. He should have a fairly normal winter.
Sep 30, 2014, 7:01 PM EDT
Kershaw and Greinke four times in five games?
Sep 30, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Javier Baez hit just .169 with 95 strikeouts in 52 games as a 21-year-old rookie.
Sep 30, 2014, 6:13 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton has played in just one game since September 4 due to shoulder, chest, and rib cage injuries, but the 33-year-old outfielder took batting practice, threw some long toss, and ran the bases on Tuesday afternoon and has declared himself ready for the ALDS, which begins on Thursday.
Sep 30, 2014, 5:29 PM EDT
It’s all about how you define the term “best,” of course.
Sep 30, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Gordon led the NL in steals and triples this season.
Sep 30, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
It’s not as crazy as it may seem.
Sep 30, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Giancarlo Stanton is about to get expensive. But the Marlins are not inclined to deal him.
Sep 30, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
He should be good to go by spring training.
Sep 30, 2014, 3:05 PM EDT
Some surprises for Oakland. Zero surprises for Kansas City.
Sep 30, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
You know Kershaw is the Cy Young. Is he the MVP, too?
Sep 30, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT
Davis isn’t a big name, but he stepped in as the primary center fielder when the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team swap that netted them David Price from the Rays.
Sep 30, 2014, 2:03 PM EDT
I’d say “act like you been there before,” but I’m guessing this guy has never, ever been there before.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:47 PM EDT
And the odds-makers expect a low-scoring game, too.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
You cool with this, Yankees fans? Not sure I’d be cool with this.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT
Rick Porcello is in line to start Game 4, with Anibal Sanchez in the bullpen.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Wild Card games are basically coin tosses, but someone’s gotta have an edge, right?
Sep 30, 2014, 12:40 PM EDT
Nate Silver — a guy who has literally made a living poking holes in people’s dubious analysis — traffics in some of his own.
Sep 30, 2014, 11:54 AM EDT
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
- Wild Card Game: A’s vs. Royals lineups 14
- Pouliot’s 2014 National League awards picks 17
- HBT Daily: A’s vs. Royals. Jon Lester vs. Big Game James. WHO YA GOT?! 9
- Playoff Reset: The American League Wild Card Game 21
- REPORT: The Astros to name A.J. Hinch their new manager today 24
- Twins fire manager Ron Gardenhire 37
- Pouliot’s 2014 American League awards picks 20
- Previewing the 2014 Playoffs 80
- Hunter Pence dropped a bunch of F-bombs in his postgame speech. Good. (116)
- Barry Bonds discovered to be “glassing” — it’s just as bad as you think (90)
- Derek Jeter’s final game in Yankee Stadium could be cancelled because of rain (85)
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights (85)
- Previewing the 2014 Playoffs (80)