Dec 4, 2012, 12:05 AM EDT
Earlier today I tried taking a gander at Angel Pagan‘s fate by looking at what some similar players did after age 31. I created a list of players who had OPSs between .720-.780, no more than 50 homers and at least 50 steals from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB during those three seasons).
Not making that list of comparables was Shane Victorino. He was a bit too good from 2009-11, his age 28-30 seasons, finishing those years with an .800 OPS. However, after a down 2012 season, Victorino would have fit perfectly in the Pagan range there for his age 29-31 seasons. Victorino has a .766 OPS, 46 homers and 92 steals the last three years.
So, I’ve decided to create a similar list for Victorino. This one won’t be quite as long as Pagan’s. Besides Victorino, there are nine center fielders in history to post OPSs from .730-.800, hit between 20-60 homers and steal at least 50 bases from 29-31. One was Alex Rios, who happens to be the same age as Victorino, so he doesn’t tell us anything. Here’s what the other eight did from 32 onward:
Cesar Cedeno: .263/.320/.401, 99 OPS+ in 1,086 AB
Willie Davis: .283/.312/.422, 106 OPS+ in 2,893 AB
Marquis Grissom: .266/.303/.422, 87 OPS+ in 3,275 AB
Stan Javier: .284/.362/.384, 99 OPS+ in 2,151 AB
Ron LeFlore: .263/.326/.353, 92+ OPS in 1,192 AB
Mickey Rivers: .287/.314/.366, 93 OPS+ in 1,089 AB
Devon White: .273/.333/.432, 100 OPS+ in 2,829 AB
Mookie Wilson: .264/.299/.364, 87 OPS+ in 1,694 AB
So, of the eight players most similar to Victorino, Davis, Javier and White lasted as quality regulars after 32. Javier was actually rarely a regular before turning 30, but he ended up being a much better old player than a young one. LaFlore might have lasted as a regular too if not for his cocaine problem.
Personally, I’d be too scared off by Victorino’s decline in 2012 to give him a three-year deal. My suspicion is that he could well be a fourth outfielder come 2014 or ’15. Still, it’s worth noting players like him haven’t aged that badly. Speed oftentimes does age better than power, which is one of the factors in Victorino’s favor.
Jul 29, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT
Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez’s throwing issues have gotten so bad–including an MLB-leading 21 of his 23 errors on throws–that Jenn Menendez of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports the team is starting to look into “the mental component to find the root of the problem.”
Jul 29, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
The Sox are in last place and are going nowhere. Time to deal starters?
Jul 29, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
He’s a braver man than I am. By that I mean Kershaw for going on Kimmel’s show.
Jul 29, 2014, 12:18 PM EDT
On the disabled list with a strained lat muscle, Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole tossed five shutout innings Monday in a minor-league rehab start at Triple-A.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
Brandon Morrow was one of the league’s best starters in 2012, but he’s been an injured mess since then, including a current disabled list stint for a torn tendon in his right index finger.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:42 AM EDT
Call me crazy, but I think Maddux, Glavine and Thomas woulda made the Hall of Fame even if Congress didn’t hold steroids hearings.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
“I just got sick and wasn’t sure why.”
Jul 29, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
As in: one side of two warring factions has agreed to a resolution. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango.
Jul 29, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
Two days ago Felix Doubront talked at length about how he wants to be back in Boston’s rotation following a demotion to the bullpen and, if the Red Sox aren’t willing to use him as a starter again, he wants to be traded.
Jul 29, 2014, 10:05 AM EDT
Last night Worley tossed a complete-game shutout against the Giants, improving to 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in 50 innings for the Pirates.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:46 AM EDT
Dirk Hayhurst takes a graphic look at depravity and likely illegality in the low minor leagues.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
Now we’re cooking with gas.
Jul 29, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
Ask yourself: how does a dude in this position — leaning in the opposite direction of first base — turn and get anything on his throw?
Jul 29, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
This is one of those quotes that, if the translation was mangled, could have created an incident.
Jul 29, 2014, 5:00 AM EDT
A three run lead and Rafael Soriano on the hill usually leads to an un-tuck fest. Not last night it didn’t.
Jul 28, 2014, 11:41 PM EDT
The Red Sox hold some interesting cards going into Thursday’s trade deadline.
Jul 28, 2014, 10:26 PM EDT
With three hits against the Rangers this evening, Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter has passed Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski for seventh-place on baseball’s all-time hit list.
Jul 28, 2014, 9:20 PM EDT
The Giants currently have two players sidelined with concussions. Brandon Belt appears closer to returning than Hector Sanchez.
Jul 28, 2014, 8:28 PM EDT
Mark Teixeira is out of the Yankees’ starting lineup for the eighth straight game tonight due to a lower lat strain, but he’s aiming to make his return tomorrow.
Jul 28, 2014, 7:29 PM EDT
It’s not a big deal, but the Blue Jays and Royals have pulled off a trade this evening which will send infielder Danny Valencia to Toronto and catcher Erik Kratz and right-hander Liam Hendriks to Kansas City.
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 44
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter passes Carl Yastrzemski for seventh on all-time hits list 59
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence 91
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 50
- Mariners’ interest in Matt Kemp is “very real” 29
- Astros players upset over Mark Appel’s promotion to Double-A, bullpen session in Houston 45
- Four theories about the Hall of Fame voting changes 24
- Troy Tulowitzki is visiting a sports hernia surgeon 10
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (201)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (165)
- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres (108)
- David Ortiz passes Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list — is he a Hall of Famer? (92)
- Must-click link: sexual depravity — and possibly rape — in the minor leagues (92)