Dec 5, 2012, 2:17 PM EDT
Obviously, it’s a good idea not to give three-year contracts to part-time players unless you have to. Unfortunately, in this winter’s free agent market, the White Sox felt they had to. Jeff Keppinger probably had multiple teams interested in him at $8 million for two years, so the first team to go to $12 million for three was the one that got him.
In Keppinger, the White Sox are getting an infielder who provides most of his value as a starter against lefties. He’s a lifetime .269/.321/.358 hitter against righties, and he doesn’t make up for it with his glove, which is poor at second and probably a bit below average at third.
Keppinger’s list of comparables doesn’t make him look like a very good bet as he heads into his age-33 season. Keppinger hit .296/.341/.402 with 21 homers and five steals from ages 30-32. I found nine other second and/or third basemen who posted OPSs from .720-.770, hit fewer than 40 homers and stole fewer than 20 bases from ages 30-32. Here’s how they performed from 33 onward:
Steve Buechele: .177/.262/.215, 29 OPS+ in 130 AB
Jamey Carroll: .274/.353/.333, 89 OPS+ in 2,162 AB
Mike Gallego: .225/.299/.292, 59 OPS+ in 612 AB
Vance Law: .209/.303/.276, 66 OPS+ in 134 AB
Dave Magadan: .280/.382/.372, 101 OPS+ in 1,057 AB
Joe Randa: .282/.339/.432, 100 OPS+ in 1,748 AB
Johnny Ray: .277/.308/.371, 92 OPS+ in 404 AB
Denny Walling: .252/.320/.355, 88 OPS+ in 812 AB
Joel Youngblood: .252/.323/.353, 92 OPS+ in 842 AB
Carroll, of course, is still going.
Magadan would seem to be a nice comp for Keppinger, but he was the far better hitter (he was also left-handed). Magadan had a career 116 OPS+ prior to turning 33, whereas Keppinger is at 97. Randa had more power than Keppinger, but he’s the best hope for the White Sox here, as he was a better old player than a young one.
Buechele and Ray only made it to 33. Law actually went to Japan for his age-33 season before coming back and playing one more year in MLB.
While Keppinger is a useful player, he’s a worse bet than he was a year ago, when he was also a free agent (he was non-tendered by the Giants) and when the White Sox had no interest in him. The White Sox already had a right-handed hitting third baseman in Brent Morel who may well prove to be the better player once defense is factored in. I realize funds are limited, but I think the White Sox would have been better off trading Gavin Floyd or Matt Thornton to free up money for a bigger offensive upgrade than they were giving Keppinger $4 million for each of the next three seasons.
Apr 17, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT
Slow starts for the well-paid are beginning to be reversed.
Apr 17, 2014, 3:46 PM EDT
Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson was fantastic this afternoon against the Blue Jays, shutting them out for eight innings of four-hit ball. Gibson struck out four, walked one, and lowered his ERA to 0.93 on the season.
Apr 17, 2014, 3:09 PM EDT
This is some good nonsense for a slow day.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:46 PM EDT
It’s really, really cold in Minnesota right now and they’re playing outdoor baseball.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
Your mileage may vary, but a 1-0 game in which each starter go the distance is baseball at its most sublime.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:14 PM EDT
St. Louis has placed right-hander Joe Kelly on the disabled list after he injured his hamstring trying to beat out an infield single Wednesday.
Apr 17, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Two big features in one week suggest we have hit Peak Puig.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:46 AM EDT
Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen began a minor-league rehab assignment by throwing a scoreless inning Tuesday at Single-A, but now Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports that he’s been “temporarily shutdown” with more back soreness.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT
This fight was precipitated by a pitcher being deliberate and a batter stepping out. Which, unlike today, was kind of unusual in 1974.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:17 AM EDT
Trevor Bauer was impressive in his one-start call-up to the Indians last week and kept things rolling in his return to Triple-A yesterday, throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts versus just one walk.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
If you’re an off-duty cop who plans to kill the Queen in Turner Field, you had best do it quickly.
Apr 17, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Two injury stories so far today, two bits of good news.
Apr 17, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Working in a non-save situation with a five-run lead last night Jose Valverde served up a pair of home runs to the Diamondbacks before eventually finishing up a Mets victory.
Apr 17, 2014, 9:50 AM EDT
Bullet: Dodgers. Er, I mean dodged.
Apr 17, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT
I’m guessing 95% of the security guards working in the state of Texas played at least high school football. It’s probably the last place you want to find yourself out on the field. You’re gonna get yourself tackled, dude.
Apr 17, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
An oufielder, made more famous for injuring someone else than his own hitting, is now trying out pitching.
Apr 17, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
Everyone wants to tell Henry Aaron who he is and what he stands for. But as a great new song tells us, They Don’t Know Henry.
Apr 17, 2014, 6:06 AM EDT
Lots of shutouts yesterday. Including one that was the Platonic Ideal of a baseball game. At least if you have taste and stuff.
Apr 17, 2014, 2:21 AM EDT
Notes from a wild game in Chicago.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:32 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks lost another game to the Mets on Wednesday afternoon and are now 4-14 on the season with by far the worst run differential (-48) in the major leagues. But the manager and GM are not on the hot seat … yet.
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (244)
- “They Don’t Know Henry” (156)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (130)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (112)