Dec 5, 2012, 2:17 PM EDT
Obviously, it’s a good idea not to give three-year contracts to part-time players unless you have to. Unfortunately, in this winter’s free agent market, the White Sox felt they had to. Jeff Keppinger probably had multiple teams interested in him at $8 million for two years, so the first team to go to $12 million for three was the one that got him.
In Keppinger, the White Sox are getting an infielder who provides most of his value as a starter against lefties. He’s a lifetime .269/.321/.358 hitter against righties, and he doesn’t make up for it with his glove, which is poor at second and probably a bit below average at third.
Keppinger’s list of comparables doesn’t make him look like a very good bet as he heads into his age-33 season. Keppinger hit .296/.341/.402 with 21 homers and five steals from ages 30-32. I found nine other second and/or third basemen who posted OPSs from .720-.770, hit fewer than 40 homers and stole fewer than 20 bases from ages 30-32. Here’s how they performed from 33 onward:
Steve Buechele: .177/.262/.215, 29 OPS+ in 130 AB
Jamey Carroll: .274/.353/.333, 89 OPS+ in 2,162 AB
Mike Gallego: .225/.299/.292, 59 OPS+ in 612 AB
Vance Law: .209/.303/.276, 66 OPS+ in 134 AB
Dave Magadan: .280/.382/.372, 101 OPS+ in 1,057 AB
Joe Randa: .282/.339/.432, 100 OPS+ in 1,748 AB
Johnny Ray: .277/.308/.371, 92 OPS+ in 404 AB
Denny Walling: .252/.320/.355, 88 OPS+ in 812 AB
Joel Youngblood: .252/.323/.353, 92 OPS+ in 842 AB
Carroll, of course, is still going.
Magadan would seem to be a nice comp for Keppinger, but he was the far better hitter (he was also left-handed). Magadan had a career 116 OPS+ prior to turning 33, whereas Keppinger is at 97. Randa had more power than Keppinger, but he’s the best hope for the White Sox here, as he was a better old player than a young one.
Buechele and Ray only made it to 33. Law actually went to Japan for his age-33 season before coming back and playing one more year in MLB.
While Keppinger is a useful player, he’s a worse bet than he was a year ago, when he was also a free agent (he was non-tendered by the Giants) and when the White Sox had no interest in him. The White Sox already had a right-handed hitting third baseman in Brent Morel who may well prove to be the better player once defense is factored in. I realize funds are limited, but I think the White Sox would have been better off trading Gavin Floyd or Matt Thornton to free up money for a bigger offensive upgrade than they were giving Keppinger $4 million for each of the next three seasons.
Mar 31, 2015, 7:49 AM EDT
Some people have argued that maybe a Kris Bryant/MLBPA lawsuit is not as silly as some of us think. I’m not sure I’m buying that.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:34 PM EDT
Garcia, 38, last pitched in the majors in 2013 as a member of the Orioles and Braves.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon figure to handle catching duties for the Red Sox in the early part of the season.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
This day has mostly been about who will not be on the Cubs’ Opening Day roster, but it was announced this evening that reliever Phil Coke has earned a spot on the team.
Mar 30, 2015, 9:15 PM EDT
In a decision that was all but inevitable after news of Jaime Garcia’s renewed shoulder issues, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny confirmed today that right-hander Carlos Martinez has won the fifth spot in the starting rotation.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks will go into the season with a starting rotation of Josh Collmenter, Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Trevor Cahill, and Chase Anderson.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:09 PM EDT
The two sides first discussed the possibility prior to Polanco’s promotion to the majors last year.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:19 PM EDT
Rendon suffered what was termed as a minor MCL sprain in his left knee on March 9 and continues to feel discomfort.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
That Nationals don’t need another injury. But they may have one.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
I’d still be surprised if they went down that road — and I think it’s a bad road to go down — but Tony Clark is leaving the option on the table.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:10 PM EDT
Everth Cabrera, who was the Padres’ starting shortstop for most of the past three seasons, looks likely to fill in for Hardy.
Mar 30, 2015, 4:47 PM EDT
Downs signed a minor-league deal in mid-December.
Mar 30, 2015, 4:32 PM EDT
The Cubs are playing ersatz baseball, you see. And this is the, um, apogee of something.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:50 PM EDT
In exchange for Matt den Dekker.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:36 PM EDT
Rodon ranked as a consensus top-20 prospect and has top-of-the-rotation upside, so expect to see him in Chicago by the All-Star break.
Mar 30, 2015, 2:33 PM EDT
He just signed on March 9, but after three awful appearances, the M’s have cut bait.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:49 PM EDT
Carlos Martinez time in the Cardinals’ rotation?
Mar 30, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
He posted a 3.33 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres in a limited role, logging a total of just 54 innings with a 51/33 K/BB ratio.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:07 PM EDT
Service time manipulation, the depth chart and hacktastic tendencies mean that the future is not quite here for three of the Cubs’ top prospects.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
Maholm has indicated that he wants to continue starting, which likely sealed his fate in Cincinnati and limits his options going forward.
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- 2015 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks 6
- 2015 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays 69
- Mariners prospect Victor Sanchez has died 24
- 2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox 15
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? 88
- 2015 Preview: Atlanta Braves 15
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” 118
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- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (118)
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- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? (88)
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