Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EST
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ‘em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Dec 19, 2014, 11:30 PM EST
Chase Utley plans to wear Phillies red until his contract runs out.
Dec 19, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
Everything’s coming up Padres lately.
Dec 19, 2014, 9:31 PM EST
Brian Wilson and his beard are back on the free agent market after the Dodgers released him on Friday.
Dec 19, 2014, 9:20 PM EST
The Red Sox have brought back lefty Craig Breslow on a one-year deal for $2 million.
Dec 19, 2014, 8:15 PM EST
The Padres’ outfield should hit a lot of homers in 2015, but they may give back a lot of those runs on defense.
Dec 19, 2014, 7:10 PM EST
The Orioles have settled on a new hitting coach: Scott Coolbaugh.
Dec 19, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
The Giants are looking to solve their third base dilemma with Casey McGehee.
Dec 19, 2014, 5:18 PM EST
Jon Lester now has a personal catcher.
Dec 19, 2014, 4:47 PM EST
All baseball moves the Yankees make must be construed as pro-A-Rod or anti-A-Rod. There are literally no other reasons the Yankees make baseball moves.
Dec 19, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
Howie Kendrick’s replacement?
Dec 19, 2014, 3:25 PM EST
Minor League Baseball’s top lobbyist wants minor leaguers classified as if they were babysitters and seasonal farm workers.
Dec 19, 2014, 3:10 PM EST
He’s owed $2.75 million for 2015.
Dec 19, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
It’s complicated. But you can bid on his deferred compensation, payable by the Mets.
Dec 19, 2014, 2:14 PM EST
Hart was one of the best right-handed power hitters in baseball for the Brewers from 2010-2012.
Dec 19, 2014, 1:42 PM EST
Dec 19, 2014, 1:30 PM EST
The Padres have made a flurry of moves in the past few days. It may help them win some more baseball games. But it will undeniably fire up a fan base that has had nothing to get excited about for years.
Dec 19, 2014, 1:13 PM EST
Furcal is actually a year older than Jimmy Rollins at 37 and hasn’t been healthy since 2012
Dec 19, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
Bud is still going to be CCd on all the imporant emails, it seems.
Dec 19, 2014, 12:12 PM EST
Rollins waived his no-trade rights to facilitate a move after 15 seasons in Philadelphia.
Dec 19, 2014, 12:00 PM EST
One player the Padres did NOT get.
- Giants acquire Casey McGehee from the Marlins 11
- The Padres have given their fans something to talk about. Which is badly needed in San Diego. 56
- Justin Upton traded to the Padres for three prospects 79
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. 141
- Jake Peavy agrees to a two-year, $24 million deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants 24
- Matt Kemp has officially been traded to the Padres 29
- Padres acquire catcher Derek Norris from Athletics 37
- St. Petersburg City Council votes down deal to allow Rays to look for new stadium site 90
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. (141)
- Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, and Astros interested in Phillies’ Cole Hamels (111)
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade (97)
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. (95)