Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EDT
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ’em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Sep 4, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Wil Myers will make his long awaited return to the Padres’ lineup on Friday night after missing nearly three months with a wrist injury.
Sep 4, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
The Astros want to sign Dallas Keuchel to at least a four-year extension, but the two sides won’t negotiate until the season is over.
Sep 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
James Paxton will sit for a few days while his fingernail heals, then resume rehabbing with Triple-A Tacoma.
Sep 4, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Corey Kluber will miss 10 days after tweaking his hamstring in a side session.
Sep 4, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Brad Ausmus could soon be out of a job as the Tigers sink in the AL Central.
Sep 4, 2015, 5:03 PM EDT
Brown may be done for the year.
Sep 4, 2015, 4:47 PM EDT
Any further concussion-related problems could force the former MVP into retirement
Sep 4, 2015, 3:48 PM EDT
Jay missed the past two months with a wrist injury.
Sep 4, 2015, 3:23 PM EDT
Viva abuse of the forfeiture laws
Sep 4, 2015, 2:13 PM EDT
The Matt Harvey controversy is a lot like the Stephen Strasburg shutdown of 2012. But Sandy Alderson is not going to do what Mike Rizzo did, someone close to him says.
Sep 4, 2015, 1:38 PM EDT
Gloves? Who needs a glove?
Sep 4, 2015, 1:10 PM EDT
Adding a 30-homer bat to the lineup.
Sep 4, 2015, 12:44 PM EDT
He’ll miss at least one week.
Sep 4, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
A good move by ESPN.
Sep 4, 2015, 11:33 AM EDT
Teixeira suffered the injury on August 17.
Sep 4, 2015, 11:03 AM EDT
Just when you thought the Mets would enjoy a smooth, controversy-free final month of the regular season.
Sep 4, 2015, 10:46 AM EDT
Headed for a quick divorce.
Sep 4, 2015, 9:12 AM EDT
Holy moly, these guys are awful.
Sep 4, 2015, 7:29 AM EDT
Carlos Gonzalez hit two homers for the second straight night.
Sep 3, 2015, 11:04 PM EDT
Bryce Harper didn’t have an official at-bat tonight, but he still made a major impact in the Nationals’ 15-1 blowout victory over the Braves.
- Sandy Alderson is not going to “roll over” for Scott Boras and shut down Matt Harvey 59
- Dodgers are already fed up with 6.56 ERA-pitching, excuse-making Mat Latos 47
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 57
- Bryce Harper walks in all four of his plate appearances, scores four runs 24
- ESPN pulls Curt Schilling off broadcasts for rest of regular season and Wild Card game 146
- David Ortiz is more likely to be boned in Hall of Fame voting for being a DH than for PED stuff 145
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 74
- The Marlins are going to change everything except their biggest problem this offseason 53
- ESPN pulls Curt Schilling off broadcasts for rest of regular season and Wild Card game (146)
- David Ortiz is more likely to be boned in Hall of Fame voting for being a DH than for PED stuff (145)
- Matt Williams puts up another strong performance in his quest to get himself fired (107)
- David Ortiz tweets his happiness about the Deflategate decision (101)
- Why Mike Mussina keeps getting hosed in the Hall of Fame voting (90)