Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EDT
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ’em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Apr 25, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
Watch Kevin Plawecki swat his first major league homer.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:21 PM EDT
But it’s not Rusney Castillo time yet.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:01 PM EDT
The Marlins have stumbled out of the gate with a disappointing 6-11 record, but they entered play today on a three-game win streak and here’s some good news about their rehabbing ace.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Fanning was involved in baseball for more than 60 years.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:01 PM EDT
It’s of utmost importance that this happens.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:48 PM EDT
It looked like the Blue Jays had one of the best young left-handed pitchers in the game after Romero compiled a 3.60 (119 ERA+) across his first three seasons in the majors, but his career veered off track after 2011 due to control problems and knee issues.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:05 PM EDT
Albers suffered a compression fracture of a finger on his throwing hand during Thursday’s brawl.
Apr 25, 2015, 2:16 PM EDT
The Rangers will reportedly only be responsible for less than $7 million of Hamilton’s remaining contract.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:58 PM EDT
Anthony Rendon suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee in early March, but he’s finally close to joining the Nationals.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:54 PM EDT
Surgery will likely cost him 4-6 weeks.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:05 PM EDT
TJ House will start in his place against Detroit.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:24 PM EDT
Six players were suspended for Thursday’s benches-clearing brawl between the White Sox and Royals. Yordano Ventura got the longest suspension with seven games.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:01 PM EDT
Nelson Cruz just keeps on mashing for the Mariners.
Apr 25, 2015, 11:15 AM EDT
Five players were ejected after Thursday’s benches-clearing brawl between the White Sox and Royals, but there was also some drama behind the scenes.
Apr 25, 2015, 10:20 AM EDT
Could a trip to the disabled list be in Yasiel Puig’s future?
Apr 25, 2015, 9:38 AM EDT
Check out a double-dose of defensive excellence from Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:49 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday night around MLB, including another promising outing from Carlos Martinez.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:35 PM EDT
The Dodgers made a couple of moves to make room for reliever Sergio Santos, called up on Friday.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Hisashi Iwakuma is dealing with a strained right lat muscle.
Apr 24, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
The Mets have lost for the first time since April 11.
- Report: Rangers will pay Josh Hamilton less than $7 million; deal includes opt-out after two years 54
- Suspensions announced for Thursday’s brawl between the White Sox and Royals 66
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 80
- Report: Angels, Rangers agree on Josh Hamilton trade 66
- Must-Click Link: Alex Rodriguzez: the slugger with a thousand faces 22
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 114
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected 155
- Bartolo Colon picks off a baserunner. By running him down all by himself. 55
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (155)
- Kelvin Herrera gets a five-game suspension; Yordano Ventura fined (133)
- Jose Bautista and the Orioles exchanged some words last night (117)
- Joe Buck has a truly awful suggestion about how to improve MLB broadcasts (116)