Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EST
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ‘em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:21 PM EST
Scutaro appeared in just five games last season for the World Series champions due to a back injury that has continued to bother him this offseason.
Jan 28, 2015, 8:59 PM EST
Mejia requested a salary of $3 million from the Mets and was offered $2.1 million when arbitration figures were exchanged on January 16.
Jan 28, 2015, 7:43 PM EST
Teams and players usually come to terms before hearings are needed — thus avoiding any drama — but Richards is a complicated case.
Jan 28, 2015, 6:28 PM EST
It’s the first front office type of job for Carter, who played for six different teams — most famously the Toronto Blue Jays — between 1983-1998.
Jan 28, 2015, 5:15 PM EST
Freese requested $7.6 million and the Angels countered at $5.25 million.
Jan 28, 2015, 4:56 PM EST
One fourth outfielder is being paid $6 million. The other fourth outfielder was not. Go Braves.
Jan 28, 2015, 3:59 PM EST
Wow! I get to use my two favorite cliches in one headline!
Jan 28, 2015, 2:44 PM EST
Gordon Beckham played the first five-and-a-half years of his career for the White Sox before being traded to the Angels in August.
Jan 28, 2015, 2:25 PM EST
No, Johnny Sportswriter. Marshawn Lynch does not owe his job to you quoting him in your local newspaper.
Jan 28, 2015, 12:16 PM EST
Baker was once a solid starting catcher for the Marlins, but he’s been mostly injured for the past five seasons.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:45 AM EST
Blanton called it quits in April after getting released by the Angels and struggling at Triple-A for the A’s.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:33 AM EST
Though, really, since 1987, Al Campanis has been.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:03 AM EST
Dave McKenna of Deadspin looks into the investigation and why it has gone seemingly nowhere.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:50 AM EST
Janssen saved 81 games from 2012-2014.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
At age 41 he’ll be joining the Marlins in a backup role, playing behind starting outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich.
Jan 28, 2015, 9:00 AM EST
Complications with new regulations may soon be ironed out.
Jan 28, 2015, 6:32 AM EST
Why yes, it is the darkest week of the offseason. Why do you ask?
Jan 27, 2015, 10:50 PM EST
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the update …
Jan 27, 2015, 9:41 PM EST
If you expected new Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred to either expand the DH rule to the National League or eliminate it altogether, you can probably stop now.
Jan 27, 2015, 8:28 PM EST
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have completed a trade for Pirates outfielder Travis Snider. Pittsburgh’s return is a player to be named later and 21-year-old pitching prospect Stephen Tarpley.
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