Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EDT
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ‘em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Apr 19, 2014, 11:45 PM EDT
Ike Davis makes a good impression with his new team.
Apr 19, 2014, 11:10 PM EDT
Evan Longoria climbs to the top of yet another Rays franchise leaderboard.
Apr 19, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
John Lannan will report to Triple-A Las Vegas after being outrighted on Wednesday by the Mets.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:50 PM EDT
Veteran Chris Snyder hangs up the spikes, ending a ten-year stint in the big leagues.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
The Rangers lost Jim Adduci with a broken finger, but have called up one of their top prospects.
Apr 19, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
The Braves could get Gavin Floyd back in early May after he makes at least two more rehab starts.
Apr 19, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
The camera guy made a faux pas during the first inning of Saturday’s Angels-Tigers game.
Apr 19, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
With his playing career likely over, Dontrelle Willis is now considering becoming a pitching coach.
Apr 19, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
Mike Trout attached his name to an ignominious feat on Saturday against the Tigers.
Apr 19, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Orioles third baseman Manny Machado continues to make progress from knee surgery. He played five innings at third base and took four at-bats today in an extended spring training game.
Apr 19, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Nationals manager Matt Williams decided to pull Bryce Harper from today’s game after he didn’t hustle on a comebacker to the pitcher.
Apr 19, 2014, 4:28 PM EDT
Ike Davis will bat sixth in his Pirates debut this evening against the Brewers.
Apr 19, 2014, 3:31 PM EDT
Yankees closer David Robertson is on track to be activated Tuesday.
Apr 19, 2014, 2:29 PM EDT
Cole Hamels is on track to face the Dodgers next Wednesday in Los Angeles.
Apr 19, 2014, 1:16 PM EDT
The Reds are hoping that Sean Marshall’s shoulder issues are behind him.
Apr 19, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
I’m warning you, this is pretty scary stuff.
Apr 19, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
Denard Span had no issues during a brief minor league rehab assignment.
Apr 19, 2014, 11:01 AM EDT
Cesar Cabral was ejected after hitting three batters Friday against the Rays. And then his night got worse.
Apr 19, 2014, 10:10 AM EDT
Adjustments to each rule could be made soon.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:21 AM EDT
Angels first baseman Albert Pujols is closing in on a milestone.
- Bryce Harper pulled from Saturday’s game for not hustling 71
- Report: MLB likely to adjust rules for plays at home and transfer catches 18
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 17
- Giancarlo Stanton sends the Marlins to victory with a walk-off grand slam 22
- Jason Bartlett will retire after 10 years in the big leagues 11
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (248)
- “They Don’t Know Henry” (167)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (112)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (96)