Dec 10, 2012, 9:58 AM EST
Because it’s the Internet overreactions abound with respect to the Royals-Rays trade. Some people are saying this is the dumbest trade ever for the Royals, some saying that they won it. Some are totally overvaluing prospects like Wil Myers, acting as if he’s cant-miss, while some are totally discounting Myers and acting like James Shields is an ace when he is merely a good starter.
My view, as I’ve said a couple of times, is that I think the trade is a bad one for the Royals, and that’s the case even if Myers turns out to be nothing special. That’s because judging the value of this trade from the Royals perspective only with reference to Myers’ future is the wrong way to look at it. Even trades that involve a prospect that goes on to great things can be “won” by the team that traded them away, and even trades that involve a prospect that flops can be lost by that team.
Think back to the trade that is, erroneously, thought of as one of the worst of all time: the Tigers 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. People slag on that one because Smoltz is probably going into the Hall of Fame someday and Doyle Alexander was out of baseball two years later, ending his career with an 18-loss season.
But the Tigers wanted one thing and one thing only from that trade: they wanted to win the AL East. And, despite trailing the Blue Jays by a game and a half on the day of that deal, they beat ‘em out thanks to Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA after coming over, including a must-win game against the Jays in game 160. The Tigers wanted to make the playoffs. They traded off the promise of a prospect (though a not particularly well thought of prospect) in order to do it. Sure, they would have been better off with Smoltz for the next 20 years, but they were trading for 1987, and to a team like the 1987 Tigers — veteran-laden, in win-now mode — 1987 was all that mattered.
Turning to the Royals: trading for James Shields and Wade Davis is a “win-now” move. They believe that the AL Central is weak and that adding a couple of pitchers will put them in the playoffs. They could be right. I think they need way more than that — they were a 72-win team last season — but that’s the calculus. As such, if Shields and Davis put the Royals in the playoffs for the first time in 27 years, they have accomplished what they set out to accomplish, and that’s the case even if Will Myers turns into a perpetual All-Star. It’s a tradeoff of promise for present, and Dayton Moore is well aware that there is a chance that Myers could be something special. We can disagree with him making that gamble with this Royals team, but that’s what he’s thinking.
But it’s also the case that the Royals could lose this trade if Myers turns into the second coming of Ben Greive and is out of the league before he’s 30. They lose it if what they wanted — that playoff spot — doesn’t come to fruition.
Maybe it won’t matter a ton because in that case Myers wouldn’t have helped much either, but this trade isn’t merely a function of Moore valuing Myers vs. Shields. It’s about Moore getting the Royals to win a lot more games and make the playoffs. And that’s how, from the Royals’ perspective, it should be judged.
Dec 11, 2013, 4:00 PM EST
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports on a big, big sales job: The club also continues to look to move closer Jonathan Papelbon. “They’re selling the [crap] out of him,” a representative from one club said. He’s owed $26 million over the next two seasons and, though the Phillies are reportedly willing to eat salary, no one…
Dec 11, 2013, 3:47 PM EST
Adam Kennedy is going to attempt a comeback at age 38, according to Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors. Kennedy sat out this year despite hitting .262 with a decent .702 OPS in 86 games for the Dodgers in 2012. Adams reports that he’ll work out for teams next month in the hopes of landing…
Dec 11, 2013, 3:29 PM EST
The Brewers used to have Corey Hart at first base and tried to bring him back. Then they were rumored to be into Logan Morrison. The Mariners jumped in front of them on both counts because, apparently, they want all of the first baseman. Heck, they now have both of those guys and Justin Smoak.…
Dec 11, 2013, 3:05 PM EST
Not satisfied with adding Corey Hart to the lineup today the Mariners have also acquired Logan Morrison from the Marlins for right-hander Carter Capps, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Morrison has been mostly injured and ineffective for the past two seasons, hitting just .236 with a .708 OPS in 178 total games,…
Dec 11, 2013, 2:45 PM EST
Corey Hart had an offer on the table to return to the Brewers following an injury wrecked season, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that he’s headed to the Mariners on a one-year deal. Hart missed all of this year, so it’s hard to guess where he’s at physically, but during the previous three seasons…
Dec 11, 2013, 2:35 PM EST
I was on SportsDash right before Francona today. So that means NBC Sports Network is THE network for bald dudes who live in Ohio:
Dec 11, 2013, 2:14 PM EST
Washington has been linked to basically every possible left-handed reliever all offseason and the Nationals finally snagged one, acquiring Jerry Blevins from the A’s for minor-league outfielder Billy Burns. Blevins was expendable because of Oakland’s impressive bullpen depth, but he’s been much more than a strict southpaw specialist with a 2.81 ERA and 132 strikeouts…
Dec 11, 2013, 2:00 PM EST
WSB News in Atlanta has learned that a group called the Atlanta Tea Party Patriots are going to sue the Cobb County Commission within ten days in an effort to block the expenditure of taxpayer dollars for the Braves new ballpark. The idea, the Tea Party Patriots, say, is that it’s illegal for public money to…
Dec 11, 2013, 1:50 PM EST
18.6 million people just watched “The Sound Of Music Live” on NBC–including one blogger who did so under heavy duress–so musicals are hot right now! And what better story for musical adaptation than “Bull Durham.” I mean, I guess: Producers of a new musical version plan to stage their show at the Alliance Theatre in…
Dec 11, 2013, 1:30 PM EST
Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle was one of the 16 members of the Veteran’s Committee this year, and he voted on the Hall of Fame earlier this week. Today he has a column about that process and it’s pretty eye-opening. The first part: how sworn to silence the committee members are. Jenkins talks…
Dec 11, 2013, 1:23 PM EST
Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Pirates and right-hander Charlie Morton have agreed to a three-year, $21 million contract extension that also includes a team option for 2017. Morton would have been eligible for free agency next offseason, but now the Pirates will have him under team control for $4 million in 2014,…
Dec 11, 2013, 1:00 PM EST
Jeff Passan has something that makes no sense to me: Sources: AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer “definitely in play” in trade talks. Nothing imminent, but teams know he can be had. — Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 11, 2013 The presumed reason why Prince Fielder and Doug Fister were traded was so the Tigers…
Dec 11, 2013, 12:48 PM EST
After playing 16 seasons for nine different teams Jerry Hairston Jr. has decided to call it a career. Well, at least a playing career. Hairston is retiring as a player and immediately becoming a member of the media, joining the Dodgers’ new television channel as a pre- and post-game host for 15-20 games. Hairston is…
Dec 11, 2013, 12:30 PM EST
He’s coming off his second shoulder surgery and just this week we learned, in the form of Roy Halladay‘s retirement, just how devastating shoulder surgeries can be. But that’s not stopping as many as eight teams expressing interest in Johan Santana, reports Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York. The Mets, Yankees, Twins, Rays, Orioles, Royals,…
Dec 11, 2013, 12:16 PM EST
Well, now we know why NL MVP Andrew McCutchen spent so much time getting his hair done before going on Ellen DeGeneres’ talk show: He proposed to his girlfriend in front of the live “Ellen” audience. I want to do this some day too, except on “Chopped.” Follow @AaronGleeman
Dec 11, 2013, 12:06 PM EST
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Shin-Soo Choo wants $140 million over seven years. Buster Olney was hearing the same thing. Scott Boras doesn’t do bargains — or if he does, he does them quietly, much later and after his demands aren’t met — so this is no huge surprise. At the moment Joel Sherman…
Dec 11, 2013, 11:51 AM EST
Davey Johnson is taking retirement seriously, staying away from the winter meetings and telling the Nationals he doesn’t want to be involved in spring training, but Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com reports that new manager Matt Williams is trying to change his mind: I asked him to come to spring training. He’s not far from the…
Dec 11, 2013, 11:30 AM EST
A David Price-to-the-Mariners trade just got a lot harder: Just saw David Price’s agent, Bo McKinnis, in lobby. Asked if Price would consider extension with #Mariners. Said no. MORE — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2013 Asked McKinnis if Price would consider extensions with other teams. Said yes. Asked which clubs. He declined to answer.…
Dec 11, 2013, 11:19 AM EST
Homer Bailey is one season from free agency and looking at a huge payday, leading to speculation that the Reds might shop him this offseason. Yesterday general manager Walt Jocketty addressed those rumors–and specifically one regarding the Yankees calling him about Bailey–telling Mark Sheldon of MLB.com: I told them we’re not trading him. We’re trying…
Dec 11, 2013, 11:00 AM EST
My second ” . . . for some reason” post of the day: #Marlins have expressed interest in OF Delmon Young….http://t.co/uWJzH6h5pu @Sportsmanias — clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) December 11, 2013 Well, I suppose you have to have 40 men on a roster, so he’s better than “TBD.” Not much better, though. Young hit .260/.307/.407 with 11…
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