Comments on: Padres out of running for Edwin Jackson, who is choosing between the Rangers and Cubs

By: thereisaparty

thereisaparty — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 20:50:56 +0000

Who is the Rangers current #5? Martin Perez? Robbie Ross to the rotation? Edwin Jackson is a significant upgrade. Colby Lewis won’t be ready until mid-summer.

I would personally prefer Shaun Marcum. Better peripherals to Edwin Jackson, but significant health concerns. Rangers just need him to be effective until Colby is back. Can be had for cheaper and for fewer years

By: thereisaparty

thereisaparty — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 20:47:33 +0000

Jurrjens ERA- (past four seasons): 63, 116, 78, 175
Jurrjens FIP-: 88, 105, 104, 144
Jurrjens IP: 215.0, 116.1 (+13.0 in AAA), 152.0 (+6.0 in AAA), 48.1 (+72.1 in AAA)
Jurrjens fWAR: 3.9, 1.3, 1.6, -0.3
Jurrjens RA9-Wins: 6.8, 0.9, 4.1, -1.0

Jo. Sanchez ERA-: 103, 80, 117, 193
Jo. Sanchez FIP-: 100, 105, 117, 157
Jo. Sanchez IP: 163.1, 193.1 101.1 (+13.2 in MiLB), 64.2 (+13.1 in AAA)
Jo. Sanchez fWAR: 1.9, 2.2, 0.5, -0.7
Jo. Sancez RA9-Wins: 1.9, 4.4, 0.3, -1.5

No one should want these two

By: thereisaparty

thereisaparty — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 20:34:39 +0000

fWAR the last four seasons: 3.6, 3.9, 3.9, 2.7
RA9-Wins the last four seasons: 5.4, 2.6, 3.3, 2.5

If a win is currently priced at $5.5mm and projected to rise with the influx of new television revenue, I don’t understand how Edwin Jackson isnt a steal at $10mm AAV.

By: senioreditor2

senioreditor2 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:07:43 +0000

The team has new owners, so lets not pass judgement yet. I agree that Moore’s final days were horrible but the O’Malley’s history is positive. They’d be smart to not commit so much to a journeyman like Jackson. They might be able to pry Capuano or Garland from the Dodgers for a left handed arm in the pen?

By: sportsguygerald

sportsguygerald — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:50:01 +0000

No way the Rangers are interested in 4 years for Jackson. Maybe 1 year for $12 might draw their interest. They are looking for more bullpen arms. Ross and or Perez will fill out the rotation

By: senioreditor2

senioreditor2 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:49:10 +0000

Jackson’s numbers in Arlington aren’t too bad…………http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=site%7CARL02%7Cjacksed01%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C

By: senioreditor2

senioreditor2 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:10:14 +0000

Value, yes, 4 or 5 years at 10+ million a year……no!

By: coloradogolfcoupons

coloradogolfcoupons — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:01:11 +0000

I believe the Cubs will get him. Ryan/Daniels should know Jackson does not throw a sinker, and does not have pinpoint command of the fastball, and never has. With the famed wind tunnel in Arlington, Jackson would have a chance to lead the universe in gopher balls in Arlington, where typical warning-track fly balls carry about 10 rows deep in the bleachers. Derek Holland, the erratic lefty the Rangers are counting on to rebound, gave up 32 HRs in 27 starts (175 innings) and throws the same type of straight fastball that Jackson does, but Jackson will face many more left-handed hitters and would probably see his HR Allowed go from 22 last year to over 30 in Arlington, and maybe more. He and Holland’s WHIP were identical at 1.22, and neither has exceptional off speed stuff. Jackson’s 4.03 ERA would probably jump to at least Holland;s 4.67 when he goes back to the AL and the best hitters park in MLB last year. Giving him 4 years/50 million would mean, reading between the lines, that the Rangers have no confidence in Martin Perez being able to handle the 5th starter role, or in the ability of Colby Lewis to return to form after elbow surgery, or Feliz to contribute much after Tommy John. I just can’t believe the Rangers are serious about this guy, who does not have a sinker, and whose fastball sits around 93-94. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster in Arlington, where fans in the right field bleachers wear catcher’s gear for protection against the HR onslaught.

By: phillyphreak

phillyphreak — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 16:25:55 +0000

Oh I also wanted to add that Jackson misses more bats and allows less contact.

By: phillyphreak

phillyphreak — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 16:23:08 +0000

“Even without that though Lannan and Jackson arent that much different.”

From 2010-2012

Name K/9 BB/9 K/BB K%
Edwin Jackson 7.47 2.98 2.51 19.50%
John Lannan 4.84 3.47 1.4 12.20%

Name ERA FIP xFIP SIERA fWAR
Edwin Jackson 4.1 3.75 3.74 3.87 10.4
John Lannan 4.12 4.3 4.33 4.56 3

That looks like significant enough difference to me……EJax has a better K/9, BB/9, K/BB, K%, FIP, xFIP, SIERA which has all resulted in a higher fWAR. And, IP is worth a lot.

I think you need to readjust your money/worth scale.

By: geoknows

geoknows — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:45:41 +0000

Yes, it appears he is with the Legacy Agency now after firing Boras in July:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/edwin-jackson-would-like-to-return-to-nationals.html

By: D.J. Short

D.J. Short — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:43:22 +0000

Yep, Greg Genske is his agent now. Fixed.

By: tcostant

tcostant — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 14:40:16 +0000

I thought Jackson fired Scott Boras last year for mistiming last years market. I want say it happen in the middle of last season. Hopefully someone at “Hardball Talk” can check this.

By: temporarilyexiled

temporarilyexiled — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:45:19 +0000

strange press conferences
several teams cite no Jackson
signing to crowd’s cheers

By: Old Gator

Old Gator — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:27:53 +0000

It’s 8:30AM ETT (Eastern Tourist Time) in Macondo, and this is still the newest thread on this blog, going back to last night. Is the Circling the Bases team on strike in sympathy with the exploited workers at Walmart or something? Craig? Drew? DJ? Aaron? Dost thou livest?

By: Old Gator

Old Gator — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:24:31 +0000

In Minnesota? In December? Naaaahhhhh….you just don’t appreciate your latitude. Things keep so much better at 20 below.

Now pardon me while I go toss some lime juice and ice cubes in the gazebo blender out back.

By: fanofevilempire

fanofevilempire — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 12:04:44 +0000

with ALL the HYPE about this guy you would think he is some BIG time pitcher.
he is not!

I want to see how much the smarty pants Rangers pay this guy.
they out smarted themselves in the Hamilton dealings.
I wonder if Jackson has to come back to the Rangers with his offers.

oh boy!

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 07:16:29 +0000

I agree there’s value in an above average pitcher who throws a bunch of innings. But over the last 4-5 years pitching has gotten a huge boost. A average era of 3.97 and whip of 1.328 over that time span just isnt above average anymore. In today’s MLB they are back of the rotation numbers. And when you say value that means the price you payed for that production. Compared to other back of the rotation players who are putting up comparable numbers $10-$12 million is at the high end of the spectrum. Which imo makes him a low value player. But if his contract is half of what is being predicted then imo he would become a high value player.

By: garrettperry

garrettperry — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 07:04:44 +0000

You know the twins have a terrible pitching staff when the fanbase, including myself, hopes this is who they sign to be their number 1.. Dark times.

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:42:55 +0000

Former giant

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:41:29 +0000

i dunno who gave this a thumbs down its pretty much dead on. Anyone who thinks Jackson is worth a 4 year deal or that the rangers dont have a lot of young talent in the majors or minors is nuts.

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:36:40 +0000

Didnt I say Lannan isnt a good pitcher? But your right I miss read his starts. Instead of reading 2010 between Arizona and Chicago as 1 season I read it as 2 same thing in 2011 between Chicago and St Louis I read it as 2 season instead of 1. Even without that though Lannan and Jackson arent that much different. Like I said Jackson is slightly better but no where near 5-6x better like their probable contracts will make it seem. The guy isnt worth more then $5 million guaranteed plus a couple mil in incentives.

By: thereisaparty

thereisaparty — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:28:43 +0000

Which Sanchez?

By: thereisaparty

thereisaparty — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:27:59 +0000

ERA- the last four seasons: 80, 105, 93, 102
FIP- the last four seasons: 96, 90, 89, 99
IP the last four seasons: 214, 209.1, 199.2, 189.2
K/BB the last four seasons: 2.30, 2.32, 2.39, 2.90

There is value in an above-average pitcher that can throw for 200IP

By: mscott4

mscott4 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:26:06 +0000

NFL practice squad players somewhere around $80-90,000 if they stay for the entire season. Good money, but hardly astounding.

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:20:57 +0000

Disgusting isnt it? These teams would be better off taking a flyer on Jurrjens or Sanchez for Lannan type money and hoping they get back to their middle of the rotation form then having to commit to Jackson for 3 years at $10+ mil per year. All for a guy who has never been anything more then a back of the rotation starter. With whats left out there on the free agent market Id rather go after a low risk high reward type of pitcher and wait till next years much more talented free agency class to lock up a guy long term. Instead of signing a guy like Jackson or Lohse now out of desperation and hoping they become somebody they have never been in their entire career . While in the process losing flexibility for next off-season.

By: ezthinking

ezthinking — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 06:09:09 +0000

Injury prone? Jackson has made 30+ starts a season since ’07. Lannan’s such a stud he put up 4.30 ERA in AAA last year with bad peripherals. He’s no ace, but in this market he’s $12-13 mil a season for 3-4 years easy.

By: icanspeel

icanspeel — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 05:59:10 +0000

Padres have had some bad times lately due to bad ownership, but they’ve been working at rebuilding the organization and they only need a starting pitcher for a few years.. doesn’t seem worth it to give Jackson 4 years.

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 05:52:10 +0000

I hate to say it but maybe Boras didnt mess up that bad last year after all. It might not be that he so over valued his client that no one wanted him forcing them to have to take a 1 year deal worth half of what the wanted. That might have been his max worth regardless of what Boras did.

By: reeggss

reeggss — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 05:48:03 +0000

Please do not let Nolan give this guy a 4 year contract, would be a panic move. Rangers may have been outbid this offseason but i am glad they did not throw out the kind of money some of these free agents received. Farm system is loaded and they still have plenty of veteran players who can play at a high level. They may not win the AL this year but they will compete and only get better with all thier potential: Darvish, Olt, Profar, Feliz, Ogando, Perez, etc.
Go rangers and wait for the right move