Either way, there is no amount of defensive futility that would convince me that a guy who hits 40 HRs, knocks in 128, and bats .340 was less than an average starting outfielder in Major League baseball. Whether the year was 1982, 1995, 2012, or 2045. Whether he played in Dodger Stadium, Coors Field, or on Mars. But that’s how WAR defines his 1995 season and to me, that is ludicrous.

Kirk, my argument is that no amount of bad defense or baserunning or home field bias “should” bring Bichette’s offensive stats down to the point where his value as a player that year is defined as “sub-level”

Adam Dunn in ’09 put up a 3.7 oWAR (bref) but his total rWAR was -0.6 because of how bad he was on defense. It happens, but there are some players whose offensive value can be entirely eliminated if they give it all back on defense/positioning.

All I am saying is that his offensive output that season should have been no worse than a 2+ WAR. This is why people get outraged over sabrmetrics. I’m a guy who is coming around to the stats, but I do not like WAR and probably never will because of instances like this. People put too much emphasis on it.

Except his offensive output was over 2 WAR that season (2.8 oWAR on bref, roughly 2.5 oWAR on fangraphs). The problem is everything else subtracted from that value. He was a bad fielder, a bad runner, and he played a position low on the defensive spectrum. Are you arguing that he should have been credited with more than the 2.8/2.5 WAR for offense? Well then take that up with wRAA (bref) or wOBA (fangraphs).

Secondly, I am telling you that around 2WAR is average, year in and year out. This is not subjective. Thus, 1 WAR for a starter is above-replacement, but below-average. WAR isn’t a rate stat so why would you compare him to a bench player? I really don’t like how Rally worded that spectrum.

“. A # from 0-2 means that you didn’t even belong in a starting line-up that season. 2+ is starters level”

Two is about *average* for starters, obviously, some have to be above, some have to be below.

Now, Dante Bichette had an OPS+ of 130…or about 30% better than the league average (remember, OPS+ factors in the park…in which nearly 400 more runs crossed the plate then when the Rockies were playing elsewhere. BUT, how does Dante Bichette compare to those who could replace him in left? Well, turns out, his OPS+ of 130 was only slightly better than the 120 OPS+ put up collectively by NL outfielders.

So, now what we are looking at is a left fielder who hit 10% than the combined average of all other left fielders, who is really terrible at defense. We can debate exact numbers and how much defense should be valued, but under this scenario, can you see why a terribly defensive outfielder in this circumstance wouldn’t be very valuable?

WAR — Wins Above Replacement
A single number that presents the number of wins the player added
to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add.
Scale for a single-season: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter,
0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level
Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com

Taken directly from BRef website…

WAR — Wins Above Replacement
A single number that presents the number of wins the player added
to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add.
Scale for a single-season: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter,
0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level
Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com

8+ MVP
5+ A-S
2+ Starter
0-2 Sub
< 0 Repl

So basically, Bichette's 1995 season was about as good as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Replacement to me means replacement on the team not in the starting lineup. All I am saying is that his offensive output that season should have been no worse than a 2+ WAR. This is why people get outraged over sabrmetrics. I'm a guy who is coming around to the stats, but I do not like WAR and probably never will because of instances like this. People put too much emphasis on it.

It's not like I am saying that he deserves to be 8+ because the idiots at the BBWAA had him 2nd in the MVP voting. I just think that a 1 WAR is far too low. I would say that if between 2 and 5 is "starter" category, then something like a 3.5 would be fine with me. Again, even though 5+ is All-star and he was an all-star reserve, not voted in by the fans, I wouldn't argue that he should have a WAR of 5+. But 1 is far too low in my opinion…especially since 1 means he's a 4th or 5th outfielder.

I thought you might want to use FSR (which yes I do very much agree with), because it is just not one person’s subjective measure (see: wisdom of the crowds). Seondly, DRS, UZR, +/-, all come with a range of certainty. The creators of these stats love to talk about how to best use them (MGL has shared a wealth of information about UZR with the public). Just throwing them out because you think they are too subjective is pretty ludicrous. Why not average them together? Surely there is some worthy insight to be gleaned from the numerous defensive metrics.

And most importantly, if you think fWAR, rWAR, etc overvalue fielding and baserunning, then just weight them less! If you think hitting is 75% of a player’s value, then calculate his WAR accordingly. But explain your reasoning. Each input of the different WAR’s are thoroughly explained. Don’t like a specific input? Fine. Pick a different one and explain why. Don’t like the weighting? Fine. Assign a different weight and explain why. You are dismissing a significant amount of valuable information because you don’t agree with a tiny input.

Larry Walker hit just 4 fewer home runs and topped him in OPS, Castilla hit 32 home runs and Galarraga hit 31, so I’m not terribly sure what your point is.

Furthermore, no one is arguing that Bichette wasn’t a good *offensive* player that year. They are arguing that
1). He was not nearly as good as his numbers appear to show, because OPS at Coors field for the Rockies and their opponents was 200 points higher (therefore, 1 run out of 10 is not as valuable as 1 run out of 5).
2). Combining his offense with terrible defense and poor baserunning, he wasn’t very valuable.