Jan 9, 2013, 3:31 PM EDT
If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs. But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.
I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters. The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens. The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.
For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now. Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.
Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere. Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.
No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.
I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
John Axford is back with the Rockies, ready to continue closing out games.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Ervin Santana is back. Trevor May’s rotation spot has been freed up to make room for him.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Avisail Garcia robbed Chris Davis of a home run. It was as glorious as it sounds.
Jul 4, 2015, 5:28 PM EDT
Ross, 38, is batting .189/.302/.284 over 87 plate appearances this season.
Jul 4, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Matt Holliday has been sidelined since June 8 with a Grade 2 strain of his right quadriceps muscle.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:18 PM EDT
Miguel Cabrera is going to be missed while he’s out with a Grade 3 strain of his left calf, but the Tigers are getting by just fine so far this afternoon against the Blue Jays.
Jul 4, 2015, 2:42 PM EDT
Norris has a 6.79 ERA over 11 starts this season.
Jul 4, 2015, 1:45 PM EDT
Beth Fedornak claims to have suffered “permanent or continuing injuries in her neck and back” as a result of the mascot’s actions.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:39 PM EDT
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg exited today’s start against the Giants in the top of the fourth inning due to an apparent injury to his left side.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:39 PM EDT
Bauer also had a heck of an at-bat in the process.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:09 PM EDT
It’s only noon on the East Coast, but Nationals slugger Bryce Harper is already setting off fireworks.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:49 AM EDT
The Tigers have no great internal options to replace Miguel Cabrera and not much with which to trade.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:28 AM EDT
Alderson says Collins isn’t to blame for the Mets’ lack of offense.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:31 AM EDT
I guess the pigeon was a Yankees fan.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:42 AM EDT
Cabrera is headed to the disabled list for the first time in his 13-year major league career.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:55 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday, including a walk-off win for the Yankees.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:58 AM EDT
In a shocking move, the Rangers designated Neftali Feliz for assignment to clear roster space for Matt Harrison.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
Base Ba’al has no mercy for Coco Crisp.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
The Mets are VERY interested in Ben Zobrist.
Jul 3, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
The Mets are getting desperate for runs, but aren’t ready to rush prospect Michael Conforto just yet.
- Stephen Strasburg exits start with tightness in left side 8
- In the wake of the Miguel Cabrera injury the Tigers have few good options 12
- Mets general manager Sandy Alderson says Terry Collins’ job is safe 11
- Calf injury sends Miguel Cabrera to the disabled list for the first time in his career 7
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 25
- Rangers designate Neftali Feliz for assignment, activate Matt Harrison 9
- Anibal Sanchez loses his bid for a no-hitter with one out in the eighth inning 11
- The Yankees, A-Rod resolve their dispute over the $6 million milestone bonus 31
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno (88)
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. (78)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (77)
- Brian Dozier is the best second baseman in baseball (72)