Jan 9, 2013, 3:31 PM EDT
If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs. But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.
I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters. The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens. The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.
For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now. Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.
Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere. Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.
No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.
I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:00 AM EDT
The Astros completed a three-game sweep of the Angels and now hold a two-game lead in the American League West.
Jul 30, 2015, 11:29 PM EDT
Gallardo isn’t going into the trade deadline on a high note, as he has allowed five runs in three straight starts.
Jul 30, 2015, 10:55 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks are trying to make a play for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman.
Jul 30, 2015, 10:20 PM EDT
It was made possible due to a misplay by Jacoby Ellsbury in center field.
Jul 30, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
The Brewers traded center fielder Carlos Gomez to the Astros earlier tonight along with right-hander Mike Fiers and they could be close to another deal.
Jul 30, 2015, 9:08 PM EDT
As the Mets try to pick up the pieces after their deal for Carlos Gomez fell apart, they reportedly have an interesting proposal to consider from the Reds.
Jul 30, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT
Morse is owed $8 million next season, but the Dodgers covered it in order to complete Thursday’s 13-player trade with the Marlins and Braves.
Jul 30, 2015, 7:33 PM EDT
Carlos Gomez was nearly dealt to the Mets last night before the deal fell apart, but it didn’t take long for the Brewers to find a new suitor.
Jul 30, 2015, 7:10 PM EDT
It wasn’t too long ago that we were talking about the White Sox as sellers, but now they are trying to buy a big bat.
Jul 30, 2015, 6:32 PM EDT
Angels slugger Mike Trout is back in tonight’s lineup against the Astros after missing two games with left wrist inflammation.
Jul 30, 2015, 6:09 PM EDT
After dealing ace David Price to the Blue Jays earlier today, the Tigers have traded closer Joakim Soria to the Pirates.
Jul 30, 2015, 5:05 PM EDT
Of course, experience is education too, and based on that I’m quite sure that even the most intelligent Marlins fan would be justified in being confused and thinking the organization has no clue whatsoever.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:44 PM EDT
No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:20 PM EDT
Carlos Correa has shortstop covered for a while.
Jul 30, 2015, 4:07 PM EDT
Defeat from the jaws of victory and then they got all wet.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:50 PM EDT
Nava hit .303 in 134 games for the Red Sox in 2013, playing a key role in the team’s World Series title.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:46 PM EDT
It’s like we’re in Philly all over again.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:25 PM EDT
We’re recapping all of the deals as they come down.
Jul 30, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
He’s signed through 2019.
Jul 30, 2015, 2:17 PM EDT
This is a big trade. At least in mass.
- Astros acquire Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Brewers 38
- Pirates bolster bullpen, pick up Joakim Soria from Tigers 10
- 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker 4
- The extraordinarily odd, 13-player Dodgers-Marlins-Braves trade is done 62
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers 111
- Both the Phillies and the Rangers did well in the Cole Hamels trade 72
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies 106
- Mets, Brewers call off reported Carlos Gomez trade 78
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (111)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)