Jan 9, 2013, 3:31 PM EDT
If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs. But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.
I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters. The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens. The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.
For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now. Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.
Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere. Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.
No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.
I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.
Mar 28, 2015, 6:25 PM EDT
Giants minor league catcher Matt Paré discussed the thrifty lifestyles minor league players are forced into.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
Rodriguez is now batting .306 (11-for-36) with three home runs, a double and a .925 OPS across 15 games this spring.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Lucas Duda is coming off a breakout year with the Mets and the two sides are now discussing a contract extension.
Mar 28, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT
Gregorius injured his wrist Saturday while trying to dive for a ground ball in the second inning.
Mar 28, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Doubront really struggled during Cactus League action, allowing nine runs on 17 hits (including two home runs) in seven innings across four appearances.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:51 PM EDT
Freeman owns a 3.33 ERA with a 61/34 K/BB ratio over 70 1/3 innings in the majors.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
The Orioles will already be without Matt Wieters on Opening Day as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery and now suddenly J.J. Hardy’s status is also in question.
Mar 28, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT
Lindstrom, who was in camp this spring on a minor league contract, posted an ugly 11.12 ERA and 5/4 K/BB ratio over 5 2/3 innings during Cactus League action.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Thorpe, 19, owns a 2.80 ERA and 179/54 K/BB ratio over his first 157 2/3 innings in pro ball.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Yordano Ventura was recently named as the Royals’ Opening Day starter and he had a heck of a tuneup in his latest Cactus League outing last night.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:01 AM EDT
Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon said last month that he would be interested in a trade to the Blue Jays and it appears that the possibility might still have some legs.
Mar 28, 2015, 10:11 AM EDT
Pelfrey owns an ugly 5.56 ERA in 34 starts dating back to 2013.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
An MRI showed “something” in Christian Vazquez’s right elbow.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:57 AM EDT
This isn’t what you want to hear with the start of the season just one week away.
Mar 27, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Marcus Stroman will be a proud college graduate the next time he takes the mound for the Blue Jays.
Mar 27, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
The Mets are likely to open the regular season without Daniel Murphy at second base.
Mar 27, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Alex Rios says he’ll have to manage his thumb injury throughout the duration of the 2015 season.
Mar 27, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Jeff Francoeur threw out Alex Rodriguez at the plate. It’s 2015, not 2011.
Mar 27, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
The Twins reportedly have a bit of interest in free agent reliever Rafael Soriano.
Mar 27, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Domonic Brown is battling an Achilles injury, leaving him unlikely to play on Opening Day.
- 2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox 14
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? 81
- 2015 Preview: Atlanta Braves 15
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” 115
- 2015 Preview: Chicago Cubs 14
- Unsigned 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken undergoes Tommy John surgery 61
- 2015 Preview: Seattle Mariners 15
- Cardinals add “OT” patch for Oscar Taveras 76
- Ex-Cardinals outfielder Curt Ford was assaulted in St. Louis and told to “go back to Ferguson” (116)
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (115)
- College baseball player cut after making offensive tweet about Mo’ne Davis (115)
- Rob Manfred says it would be hard to reinstate Pete Rose in a limited way (89)
- Mo’ne Davis says college ballplayer who wrote an offensive tweet about her deserves a second chance (88)