Jan 9, 2013, 3:31 PM EDT
If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs. But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.
I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters. The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens. The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.
For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now. Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.
Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere. Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.
No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.
I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.
May 23, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Tanner Roark posted a 2.85 ERA across 31 starts last season, but the Nationals moved him to the bullpen after signing Max Scherzer to a huge contract over the winter. That depth is coming in handy now that Doug Fister is sidelined.
May 23, 2015, 12:59 PM EDT
Cueto has been bothered by “general stiffness” dating back to his last start on Tuesday.
May 23, 2015, 11:43 AM EDT
Things are really ugly with the Marlins right now, both on and off the field.
May 23, 2015, 11:15 AM EDT
The Dodgers knew about Ryu’s labrum tear before signing him to a six-year, $36 million contract in December of 2012.
May 23, 2015, 10:29 AM EDT
Miranda, 25, pitched in Cuba’s Serie Nacional from 2007-2013 and posted a 3.78 ERA over 64 starts and 16 relief appearances
May 23, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
The Marlins have lost eight games in a row and are now 0-5 under new manager Dan Jennings, but at least Dee Gordon is doing some cool things.
May 23, 2015, 8:57 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday around MLB, including the rolling Royals.
May 22, 2015, 11:59 PM EDT
Mike Trout is pretty good at this baseball thing.
May 22, 2015, 11:40 PM EDT
Bad news for the reeling Marlins: starters Mat Latos and Henderson Alvarez both will take at least a couple of weeks off due to injuries.
May 22, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Ichiro Suzuki may be close to the end of a brilliant career, but he’s not done moving up baseball’s all-time leaderboards.
May 22, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
Nelson Cruz kept pace with Bryce Harper, taking back the MLB lead in home runs shortly after losing it.
May 22, 2015, 9:35 PM EDT
Stephen Vogt has been baseball’s best-hitting catcher and GM Billy Beane plans to hold onto him.
May 22, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT
Athletes aren’t born with an ability to speak with the media. We got a look into a media coaching session between Athletics closer Sean Doolittle and girlfriend Eireann Dolan.
May 22, 2015, 7:51 PM EDT
The Dodgers added some pitching depth on Friday, acquiring pitcher Eric Surkamp from the White Sox.
May 22, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
The White Sox are managing Carlos Rodon’s workload so they pushed the lefty’s start back from Monday.
May 22, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Coco Crisp will go back on the disabled list, but has chosen against having career-ending surgery.
May 22, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
The Mets appear to be heading towards using a six-man rotation after Dillon Gee returns on Saturday.
May 22, 2015, 4:47 PM EDT
The Yankees firmly believe that the only people allowed to disparage Alex Rodriguez are the Yankees.
May 22, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Castillo is starting tonight in right field.
May 22, 2015, 2:50 PM EDT
Janssen was signed for $5 million to replace Tyler Clippard as the Nationals’ primary setup man.
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 25
- Video: Mike Trout makes a ridiculous slide to beat the tag at third base 13
- Cuba’s best pitching prospect is on his way to America 21
- Will Smith suspended for eight games for the foreign substance on his arm 61
- Will Smith’s ejection once again shows baseball’s silly approach to foreign substance rules 48
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 96
- Who really owns a home run ball? 65
- The story behind the Nationals squirting chocolate syrup on each other after big wins 43
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (132)
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (130)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. (111)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)