Jan 9, 2013, 3:31 PM EDT
If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs. But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.
I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters. The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens. The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.
For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now. Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.
Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere. Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.
No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.
I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.
Sep 2, 2015, 12:43 PM EDT
And, I would guess, it wont be such serious business here after a few years either.
Sep 2, 2015, 11:31 AM EDT
Of course their biggest problem is not going anyplace, as he owns the team.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:54 AM EDT
Miguel Sano statistical porn.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
A picture of A-Rod from yesterday — not this one — seems to be the tiebreaker here.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Getting healthy for October is the focus.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT
He caught Kevin Quackenbush napping. Almost literally napping.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:37 AM EDT
A great catch and an extra innings walkoff homer.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:07 AM EDT
Its like watching a car crash. No, wait: a tricycle accident.
Sep 2, 2015, 7:04 AM EDT
Was this a . . . statement game?
Sep 1, 2015, 11:34 PM EDT
Would it endanger or enlighten Berrios’ career to give him a few starts in a postseason race?
Sep 1, 2015, 10:49 PM EDT
It was Cal Ripken Jr. Night on Tuesday at Baltimore’s Camden Yards, with the Orioles celebrating the 20th anniversary of Ripken taking over Lou Gehrig’s record for consecutive games played …
Sep 1, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Stanton has been on the disabled list since June 27 because of a broken hamate bone in his right hand.
Sep 1, 2015, 9:12 PM EDT
And he did it on the night the O’s are celebrating the 20th anniversary of Cal Ripken breaking Lou Gehrig’s record for consecutive games played.
Sep 1, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Adam Rubin of ESPN New York shares the plan …
Sep 1, 2015, 7:44 PM EDT
The reworking of the Red Sox has already begun under new club president Dave Dombrowski.
Sep 1, 2015, 6:51 PM EDT
It was a rather uneventful triple play as far as triple plays go, but cool and rare nonetheless …
Sep 1, 2015, 6:07 PM EDT
From beat writer Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com …
Sep 1, 2015, 5:17 PM EDT
Teixeira has started just one game since fouling a ball off his shin two weeks ago.
Sep 1, 2015, 4:54 PM EDT
Kelvin Herrera and Alex Rios are already infected and will could miss up to two weeks.
Sep 1, 2015, 3:41 PM EDT
Gordon missed two months with a groin injury.
- Drooling over Miguel Sano’s incredible numbers through 50 career games 9
- Matt Williams puts up another strong performance in his quest to get himself fired 87
- Settling the Scores: Tuesday’s results 63
- Yankees reveal Mark Teixeira’s shin injury is “more than we thought” 15
- There’s a chicken pox outbreak in the Royals’ clubhouse and multiple players are infected 27
- Shoeless Joe Jackson is not being reinstated 66
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 66
- Cubs acquire Austin Jackson from Mariners 22
- Sarah Palin sticks up for Curt Schilling, tells ESPN to “stick to sports” (266)
- Dan Patrick: When does ESPN cut ties with Curt Schilling? (202)
- Curt Schilling taken off of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast this week (134)
- Joe Girardi would like Carlos Gomez to “play the game right” (97)
- Matt Williams puts up another strong performance in his quest to get himself fired (89)