Comments on: Cardinals GM says re-signing Kyle Lohse “doesn’t make much sense for us”

By: buckemtp

buckemtp — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 20:39:29 +0000

A cardinals post in hbt without some sort or snarky comment thrown in?! Whoa.

And aren’t the players the first to bring out the “it’s a business first and foremost” line? The cardinals have plenty of rotation depth and it doesn’t make sense to block a Shelby Miller or Trevor Rosenthal for however many more years of Kyle Lohse.

By: wonderkt

wonderkt — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 03:58:39 +0000

I don’t “blame” the Cardinals, Lohse, or Boras for the situation. Everyone knows the rules, and negotiations are just a big game. The first thing to understand is that none of the parties give out any information unless there is a purpose to it. One side will win, and the other side will lose. That’s just how it works. And, whenever it’s resolved, everyone will say they are happy with how it all worked out.

By: westcoastredbird

westcoastredbird — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 01:04:35 +0000

Usually by this time Boras as created the market and has a team bidding against itself. In the case for Lohse it seems that the Dodgers could sign him and not lose a first round draft pick because they already gave it up to the Angels when they signed Greinke. The Cards would get a compensatory instead. The Rangers may be in the same boat when Hamilton signed with the Angels. No way a bad team signs him and gives the Cards a cherry pick.

By: gibbyfan

gibbyfan — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 23:07:24 +0000

Really a little bit tough to feel sorry for any of baseballs FA’s. Sort of akin to feeling bad for a winner of a mega lotterybecause of having to pay a big tax bill. I’m sure Kyle will be fine even if he has to play somewhere for 12 million or so

By: unclearnie

unclearnie — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 21:14:44 +0000

Perhaps a team that has already given up it’s 1st round pick for another free agent would be willing to give up it’s second for him…

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:27:16 +0000

While true, that is as important as is being made out. In part, because draftees know that teams must sign them or they loss the slot value anyway….so draftees have leverage themselves. For the team, it is better to save $100K to go toward another pick and to sign the guy you drafted than it is to refuse to sign him, in which case you don’t get the guy you drafted or the ability to spend any of the money associated with his draft slot.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:24:58 +0000

The HGH testing was agreed to in the last CBA, they were just haggling over how to implement it. That concession was already traded for something.

By: cackalackyank

cackalackyank — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:23:13 +0000

The Devil you say! Scott Boras gave bad advice? Unpossible.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:16:05 +0000

First, there is no indication that Lohse is willing to sign cheaply.

Second, the Cardinals need right now is not the rotation. They have at least 8 viable options for the rotation (Wainwright, Carpenter, Westrbook, Lynn, Garcia, Kelly, Rosenthal, Miller). There is no reason to spend $10M or more of your budget for depth you don’t need, at least, not right now.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:13:08 +0000

Yeah, because if Lohse doesn’t repeat last year he’s totally useless. There is a huge gap between what Lohse did last year and a highly productive pitcher worth $13M/yr.

Regression to the mean, for a player, is a regression to their true talent level. You are assuming that a players’ talent level is fixed throughout his career, which, of course, is not true.

By: albertmn

albertmn — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:11:48 +0000

I don’t understand how HGH testing would be the PA “giving” something. I understand they will look at it that way. But, everyone should be trying to catch any cheaters. It shouldn’t be a bargaining tool. Only dirty players should have a reason to not want it. In the same vein, if there were safety issues that could be implemented, the teams should do it, and cover the cost to protect their investments. That also should not be a bargaining tool.

By: albertmn

albertmn — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 20:08:40 +0000

I could be wrong, but I don’t think the team (Cardinals in this case) get the pick from the other team. I believe the other team loses its 1st round pick (or 2nd if they are in the top 10, which are protected). The Cardinals then would get a compensatory pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. So, they would still get a pick if Lohse signs elsewhere, but it isn’t the 1st round pick of the team that signs him.

By: albertmn

albertmn — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:58:58 +0000

This is all on Kyle and his agent for not recognizing that the draft pick would kill his market and just taking the one year offer from the Cards. He could have had $13.3 million and be getting in shape for Spring with no worries. $13.3 million is nothing to scoff at.

By: rocketsteadman

rocketsteadman — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:49:00 +0000

Everything’s coming up Milhouse needs to be used more often

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:48:33 +0000

I think the Cardinals knew that there was no way Lohse wasn’t testing the FA market. He’s been great for the last 2 years. There wasn’t any reason for him to expect not to do better than a 2 year deal.

I think teams are probably over-estimating the effect of losing their 1st round pick. Yeah, they’ll lose that pool money, but most draftees at those slots are going to be signing for close to that money anyway….they know that teams can’t afford to lose that pool money, and they lose all of the pool money if they don’t sign the pick.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:45:02 +0000

StL isn’t limiting his market value. They simply offered him a deal so that they would receive compensation for losing a valuable player (i.e. a player that sees his market at sufficient to turn down a $13.3M qualifying offer).

What is limiting his value is the system the MLBPA agreed to during the last CBA negotiation. I have zero sympathy. The MLBPA chose to screw amateur players by agreeing to a salary cap for drafts, while be opposed to the same concept for their own salaries. What is limiting his value isn’t the loss of the pick, but the spending ability that goes with it.

Lohse (and a few other FAs) are paying the price for the MLBPA screwing players in the draft.

Level of sympathy = 0

By: Marty McKee

Marty McKee — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:29:17 +0000

Lohse has a below average ERA+ after 12 seasons in the big leagues (and his lifetime ERA is 4.45). Duncan may not have physically been with the Cardinals the last two seasons, but he worked with Lohse before that, and the Cardinals’ pitching staff is still obviously run using Duncan’s methods and philosophies, so the fact that Duncan technically wasn’t there is a moot point.

Plus, you know what “regress to the means” means, and if you think Lohse will post another 134 ERA+ next year, I would be happy to lay some wagers with you. He isn’t a worthless pitcher, and on a team desperate for starting pitching, he will probably be an okay #4 starter.

By: cur68

cur68 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:20:08 +0000

Ah, I just wanted to use the term “coming up Millhouse”. I agree with you.

By: Francisco (FC)

Francisco (FC) — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:18:42 +0000

I dunno Cur, Oz tried that route. I’m not sure any pitcher short of Clemens can sit out half a season and then “Turn it on” so to speak. Missing ST and the first couple of months is hazardous to your performance.

By: judahbenhur

judahbenhur — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:11:41 +0000

The scary thing is that Lohse has pitched better than Grienke and is arguably a bigger and better add, at least for this upcoming season. The guy is 30-11 over the past two years and has abetter ERA than Grienke. Boras really gave this guy bad advice.

By: Ben

Ben — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 19:07:03 +0000

Sure, but as of now, unless a team gets desperate, Lohse isn’t signing for a while. So the Cardinals either get starting pitching depth (ask the Braves how valuable that is) or they get to trade him for prospects. At best, they get prospects who may or may not be worth more than a draft pick, or they get depth on a team that might need it to make the playoffs. Worst, it’s a wash.

By: Sign Ahead

Sign Ahead — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 18:54:45 +0000

I agree. This little fiasco belongs to everyone who voted for the current CBA.

By: cur68

cur68 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 18:30:25 +0000

…and be that much more rested because of it. This could work out real well in Lohse’s favour if he performs up to his usual standards after he’s collected in June (almost certainly he’ll score a deal in June if not sooner). He might see that big payday after all if the team he’s chatting with REALLY needs him. Things could come up Millhouse for him, in spite of how it looks now.

By: xmatt0926x

xmatt0926x — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 18:21:31 +0000

On the positive side, when he finally can be picked up without draft pick compensation in June or whenever, he’ll be able to see by then who is in contention and then take his pick of what city he wants to go to. Teams won’t have to empty their farm system at the trade deadline to get him. He’ll do ok.

By: bolweevils2

bolweevils2 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 18:16:59 +0000

Sure they lose a pick if the resign him. They losing out on the pick they would get from some other team if another team signs him. So they are still getting one less draft pick than they would if they didn’t sign him.

The only way the aren’t losing a pick is if no one signs him until after the draft.

By: icanspeel

icanspeel — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:59:50 +0000

To make things worse.. besides losing the draft pick and paying for the free agent.. the team that signs a player such as Lohse also loses the slot value of the draft pick from their total draft spending limit.

By: number42is1

number42is1 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:43:51 +0000

I understand the sentiment but on the other hand if it were a Verlander or a King Felix or an Albert Pujlos i think that teams would be lining up around the corner to sacrifice a draft pick. a Kyle Loshe, as good as he may be, is not worth the money + the potential of a first round draft pick. if this were 2 or 3 years ago (or whenever the new CBA rules went into effect) he would have been picked up in a heartbeat.

By: cackalackyank

cackalackyank — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:29:33 +0000

“no teams seem convinced that the Scott Boras client is worth forfeiting a draft pick”

Wow look at that…another Boras client that miscalculated his market in the face of draft pick compensation. Say hey to Soriano for me.

By: stlouis1baseball

stlouis1baseball — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:27:15 +0000

I would also like to see him come back. If it can be down without breaking the bank.
As someone else stated though…I have a feeling he will find a spot in ST when dudes arms start falling off and teams need pitching on the quick.

By: alexb64

alexb64 — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:17:29 +0000

I’m starting to wonder if MLB will be facing a CBA standoff in 2016. I only wonder because of stories like this & the stuff I’ve read where the Yankees are being taken out of the equation because (laughably) they’re on a “budget” which is a little silly, but likely important to agents & players who like to use teams like them to drive up their offers. Especially with the PA obviously giving a MAJOR way with the HGH testing, I have to think at some point the union will point to draft pick compensation & luxury taxes as things that are negatively effecting them as free agents. Lohse out there, Rafael Soriano seemingly sitting around waiting until teams don’t have to give up a draft pick to get him & you could maybe even consider how late some of the big ticket free agents are signing. When they sign late, it leaves a good deal of lower tier guys stuck in limbo.

I don’t think it will be anything that results in missed games, but maybe a deadline deal like 2002.