Skip to content

Notes and thoughts on the Justin Upton trade

Jan 24, 2013, 2:10 PM EST

Martin Prado Getty Images

Braves acquire OF Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson from Diamondbacks for 3B Martin Prado, RHP Randall Delgado, RHP Zeke Spruill, SS Nick Ahmed and 1B Brandon Drury.

– As some probably guessed, I’m a big fan of this deal for the Braves. I wrote an entry trying to pair the Upton brothers in Atlanta before the Braves had B.J. signed.

That said, I would have liked this deal a bit more two months ago, when the Braves would have had more flexibility to deal with the losses of Prado and Delgado. I still think it’s a great value trade, and I expect that the competitive Upton brothers could push one another to new heights. Prado is a very good player right now, but he was under control for just one more year and I don’t think he’ll live up to his next contract. I’ve never seen Delgado as much more than a No. 4 starter. None of the prospects are elite talents. I’m surprised the Diamondbacks didn’t insist on right-hander J.R. Graham in the deal.

– As for the Diamondbacks, well, there’s really been no plan from the beginning. They’ve now parted with two terrific young talents in Upton and Trevor Bauer and still haven’t set themselves up as obvious contenders for 2013.

Here’s a possible lineup:

CF Adam Eaton
3B Martin Prado
2B Aaron Hill
LF Jason Kubel
1B Paul Goldschmidt
C Miguel Montero
RF Cody Ross
SS Didi Gregorius/Cliff Pennington

That’s certainly not bad. A rotation of Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Brandon McCarthy and Delgado/Tyler Skaggs/Patrick Corbin is also pretty good.

Still, this is a team without a definite All-Star and it’s going up against a Dodgers club full of them and the defending world champs in San Francisco. Towers did add some nice minor league depth today, but he’s still given away arguably his two top talents and inflated the payroll, all for an 85-win, third-place team.

– The Diamondbacks just keep backing themselves into corners. It’s what forced them to trade Upton. And now it’s going to force them to give Prado a big extension, since there’s no way they’re going to let the key piece in the deal leave after one year.

Prado has hit .300 and topped a .350 OBP in three of his four full seasons in the bigs. I’ll be curious to see whether his terrific 69/58 K/BB ratio from last season holds up or if he reverts to previous form (86/40 K/BB in 2010, 52/34 in 129 games in 2011). A quality walk total will make the difference between him being an above average regular or an overpriced mediocrity in those seasons in which he hits .280 or so. And he will have those seasons after turning 30. The Diamondbacks are probably going to have to give him $30 million-$36 million for three seasons, and I have my doubts he’ll prove worth it.

A Prado extension would also cut off prospect Matt Davidson’s current path to the majors, though I don’t really see that as a problem. He projects better in left field than third base anyway. And if the Diamondbacks did want to leave him at third base, they could put Prado back in left field in 2014.

– This trade does leave the Braves lineup in a bit of a weird place. Prado was their only great option to bat first or second this season. Right now, we might be looking at:

SS Andrelton Simmons
CF B.J. Upton
RF Jason Heyward
LF Justin Upton
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Dan Uggla
C Brian McCann
3B Juan Francisco/Chris Johnson

With McCann set to miss at least the first few weeks following shoulder surgery, the third baseman will likely bat seventh, putting Gerald Laird in the eighth spot.

This arrangement will work out just fine if Simmons builds on his .289/.335/.416 line from his rookie campaign. I’m not sure the Braves can count on that, though.

And then there’s B.J. Upton, whose OPS went from .331 in 2011 to .298 last year. If he comes back in at .330 or so, he’d be an asset at the top of the order. If not, he’s a problem.

The Braves could always drop either Simmons or B.J. and simply move everyone else up a spot. I’d be good with Heyward batting second and Justin hitting third. I’m guessing that’s not how Fredi Gonzalez will want to play it, though.

– At third base, the current play should be to play Francisco versus righties and Johnson versus lefties. Johnson will get a chance to win the starting job outright, but I’m not a fan at all. He’s a poor defender, and while he does have pop, I doubt he’ll hit .281 again.

One potential problem with the platoon: the right-handed-hitting Johnson has actually performed much better against righties (.283/.323/.452 in 896 AB) than lefties (.255/.294/.372) in his career. Still, I think Francisco will outhit him against righties.

– Now that the Braves have question marks at the back of the rotation and at third base, they should be in contact with some free agents. Roy Oswalt and Javier Vazquez would make tons of sense as the new fifth starter. Vazquez would likely come cheaper, and Atlanta is about as close as he can get to his home in Puerto Rico. Of course, he pitched for the Braves in 2009 and went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA. Some other inexpensive possibilities: Carlos Zambrano, Carl Pavano, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia and Chris Young.

For third base, it makes plenty of sense to check in with Scott Rolen and see if he has any interest in a part-time role. I’d take him over Johnson to pair with Francisco. And I know this won’t be very popular, but it’s worth offering Chone Figgins a minor league contract. The smart money says he’s done as a useful player at 35, but if he does have something left, he’d be a pretty great fit on a team with little speed, no obvious leadoff man and no plus defensive third basemen.

Latest Posts
  1. Ramon Santiago signs with the Blue Jays

    Jan 29, 2015, 3:15 PM EST

    Ramon Santiago AP

    Santiago spent last season with the Reds, hitting .246 with a .667 OPS in 75 games.

  2. Blue Jays sign Ronald Belisario

    Jan 29, 2015, 2:31 PM EST

    Ronald Belisario AP

    Belisario was awful for the White Sox last season, allowing 46 runs in 66 innings.

  3. Pete Carroll and Scott Boras are best buddies? Who knew?

    Jan 29, 2015, 1:00 PM EST

    Boras sulking AP

    Does this man look like he’d be a friend of a guy like Pete Carroll? Welp, he is.

  4. Omar Minaya is joining the MLB Players Association

    Jan 29, 2015, 12:45 PM EST

    Omar Minaya AP

    He’ll work with union chief Tony Clark.

  5. Jayson Werth to serve five days in jail for reckless driving

    Jan 29, 2015, 12:30 PM EST

    Jayson Werth AP

    We can, from now and forever, refer to Werth as the “The Nationals’ ex-con right fielder.”

  6. The 12th greatest GM of all time is the real “Moneyball” innovator, not Billy Beane

    Jan 29, 2015, 11:30 AM EST

    Sandy Alderson AP

    Brad Pitt was too young to portray him, though. Maybe Kevin Kline could’ve?

  7. Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list is out

    Jan 29, 2015, 10:39 AM EST

    Kris Bryant AP AP

    Kris Bryant of the Cubs tops the list.

  8. Blue Jays are on the hunt for veteran relievers

    Jan 29, 2015, 10:15 AM EST

    Francisco Rodriguez AP AP

    Francisco Rodriguez? Rafael Soriano?

  9. Rosenthal proposal: make relievers face more than one batter per appearance

    Jan 29, 2015, 10:01 AM EST

    Mike Pelfrey

    He’s gonna get big pushback from the LOOGY union, but is the idea a good one?

  10. Must baseball “change or die?”

    Jan 29, 2015, 9:09 AM EST

    dodgers shift

    Baseball should never fear innovation. But not all new rules are, by definition, innovation.

  11. Giants release Marco Scutaro

    Jan 28, 2015, 10:21 PM EST

    scutaro getty Getty Images

    Scutaro appeared in just five games last season for the World Series champions due to a back injury that has continued to bother him this offseason.

  12. Mets avoid arbitration with Jenrry Mejia at $2.595 million

    Jan 28, 2015, 8:59 PM EST

    mejia getty Getty Images

    Mejia requested a salary of $3 million from the Mets and was offered $2.1 million when arbitration figures were exchanged on January 16.

  13. Garrett Richards’ arbitration hearing set for February 11

    Jan 28, 2015, 7:43 PM EST

    garrett richards getty Getty Images

    Teams and players usually come to terms before hearings are needed — thus avoiding any drama — but Richards is a complicated case.

  14. Diamondbacks hire Joe Carter as special assistant

    Jan 28, 2015, 6:28 PM EST

    joe carter getty Getty Images

    It’s the first front office type of job for Carter, who played for six different teams — most famously the Toronto Blue Jays — between 1983-1998.

  15. Angels, David Freese avoid arbitration

    Jan 28, 2015, 5:15 PM EST

    David Freese AP AP

    Freese requested $7.6 million and the Angels countered at $5.25 million.

  16. The Braves DFA’d Jose Constanza to make room for Dian Toscano

    Jan 28, 2015, 4:56 PM EST

    braves logo large

    One fourth outfielder is being paid $6 million. The other fourth outfielder was not. Go Braves.

Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. J. Papelbon (6369)
  2. J. Shields (4288)
  3. I. Suzuki (4033)
  4. R. Vogelsong (3593)
  5. Y. Moncada (3575)
  1. F. Rodriguez (3148)
  2. J. Gomes (3018)
  3. J. Hoffman (2735)
  4. D. Fowler (2672)
  5. D. Mesoraco (2607)