Feb 7, 2013, 4:01 PM EDT
If you had to bet big on a pitcher for the next seven years, Felix Hernandez seems as good a choice as any. He hasn’t been in Justin Verlander‘s league these last two years, but he also hasn’t been extended to 270 innings per year like Verlander has. And while I think I’d choose Clayton Kershaw over anyone, I do feel a little bit safer trusting someone with Hernandez’s thick build over the slighter left-hander. I think Kershaw is the better bet to contend for Cy Young awards deep into the decade, but Hernandez is the more likely of the two to still be throwing 220-230 excellent innings per season.
Still, it’s all just a guess. Pitching is inherently risky. Unlikely candidates have survived the rigors and won 200 games, and some who look like they’ll last forever are gone in an instant.
Since the expansion era started in 1961, Hernandez, with 32 WAR, is one of a dozen pitchers to have racked up at least 28 WAR through age 26 (using the Baseball-Reference version). Here are the other 11, their WARs through age 26 and their totals from age 27 onward.
Bert Blyleven – 47 WAR – 165-137, 3.71 ERA, 109 ERA+, 44 WAR
Tom Seaver – 35 WAR – 216-151, 3.07 ERA, 121 ERA+, 66 WAR
Dwight Gooden – 35 WAR – 62-59, 4.45 ERA, 99 ERA+, 11 WAR
Roger Clemens – 34 WAR – 259-139, 3.15 ERA, 144 ERA+, 99 WAR
Bret Saberhagen – 34 WAR – 70-47, 3.49 ERA, 124 ERA+. 22 WAR
Frank Tanana – 33 WAR – 138-158, 4.03 ERA, 100 ERA+, 20 WAR
Dave Stieb – 32 WAR – 95-70, 3.57 ERA, 116 ERA+. 22 WAR
Fernando Valenzuela – 30 WAR – 60-71, 4.29 ERA, 90 ERA+, 4 WAR
Pedro Martinez – 29 WAR – 135-54, 2.89 ERA, 160 ERA+, 53 WAR
Dennis Eckersley – 29 WAR – 99-99, 3.59 ERA, 114 ERA+, 30 WAR
Kevin Appier – 29 WAR – 109-93, 4.16 ERA, 112 ERA+, 23 WAR
Of the 11 best young starters in the last 50 years, just three accomplished more from age 27 onward than they did through age 26. There are three Hall of Famers on the list in Blyleven, Seaver and Eckersley and two more guys with Hall of Fame numbers in Clemens and Martinez. None of the other six came anywhere close to getting elected.
My feeling is that the Mariners should have waited on a Hernandez extension. He was under control for two more years at a total of $39.5 million. In essence, today’s seven-year, $175 million contract is really a five-year, $135.5 million extension. In guaranteeing Hernandez $27.1 million per year for those five years, the Mariners are giving him 10 percent more than any pitcher has ever gotten in a long-term contract. CC Sabathia‘s Yankees renegotiated deal, Cole Hamels‘ Phillies extension and Zack Greinke‘s free agent deal with the Dodgers were all for $24.4 million-$24.5 million per year. The Mariners weren’t getting any kind of discount here and thus should have revisited extension talks next winter.
On the other hand, it’s not really all that outrageous of a contract. Had Hernandez been a free agent this winter, he surely would have gotten $200 million on the open market. There’s also something to be said for a move like this reassuring the fanbase. The semi-annual “should Felix go” columns are out the window now, and eager Yankees and Red Sox fans will have to turn their attention elsewhere in search of prey. Salaries are likely to keep going up, so if Felix stays healthy, there’s a good chance he’ll be worth the money. The Mariners’ future through 2019 now hinges on it.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:35 PM EDT
The Rockies are calling him day-to-day.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:55 PM EDT
Ben Zobrist left Sunday’s game due to left knee soreness and he’s now slated to miss at least another couple of days after receiving a cortisone shot.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:26 PM EDT
Tonight’s Cubs-Pirates game was delayed for 23 minutes after a woman was hit in the back of the head by a foul ball in the top of the second inning.
Apr 20, 2015, 7:29 PM EDT
Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander had to cut a simulated game short last Wednesday and he’s currently in shutdown mode due to continued soreness in his throwing arm.
Apr 20, 2015, 6:21 PM EDT
The Mets won their eighth straight game Sunday against the Marlins to improve to 10-3 on the year, but it came as a cost, as catcher Travis d’Arnaud and left-handed reliever Jerry Blevins were forced to leave the game due to injuries. Today we learned a little bit more about how long they’ll be sidelined.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
It’s been a facility in flux since the Dodgers left in 2008, but it has a new life under new management.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
It was bad enough that he needed stitches.
Apr 20, 2015, 2:22 PM EDT
Last season he threw 184 innings with a 4.11 ERA and 139/67 K/BB ratio.
Apr 20, 2015, 1:15 PM EDT
And he actually owns up to taking stuff. None of that “I have no idea how that got in my system” rebop from him.
Apr 20, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
People from El Paso are still mad about that. Oh well.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Allen Craig replaced him in left field against the Orioles.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Beachy is 28 years old with a 3.23 ERA and 275 strikeouts in 268 career innings.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:02 AM EDT
The greatest trick baseball columnists ever pulled was convincing the world that the way they frame a topic is the only way to approach the topic.
Apr 20, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
“You can’t do anything to fix it.”
Apr 20, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
His health is a huge key to the Angels’ success this season.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:52 AM EDT
If you hate in-game interviews of managers, just wait for in-game interviews of players.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:28 AM EDT
It made for a fast game, but I wouldn’t say a better game.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:57 AM EDT
Interesting: this was reported via a confidential source. Not released in a statement by the league.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:23 AM EDT
Or, as I call it, “pulling a Mulholland.”
Apr 20, 2015, 6:44 AM EDT
Nelson Cruz has eight homers on the young season. And a line that looks like something Barry Bonds put up over the course of four seasons.
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 74
- Report: Marlins manager Mike Redmond is on the hot seat 40
- Five Royals ejected in Sunday’s series finale against the Athletics 88
- White Sox will promote Carlos Rodon on Monday 14
- Another one bites the dust: Mets lose young catcher Travis d’Arnaud to fractured right hand 14
- National League GM says Phillies’ asking price for Cole Hamels hasn’t dropped “one bit” 16
- Giants receive their 2014 World Series championship rings 22
- Angels activate Garrett Richards for Sunday debut 2
- “We no longer need the terrorists. We’re now so good at terrorizing ourselves.” (143)
- Another argument in favor of making the DH universal (128)
- When it comes to Josh Hamilton, Arte Moreno is a craven opportunist, not a “smart businessman” (116)
- Joe Buck has a truly awful suggestion about how to improve MLB broadcasts (103)