Feb 7, 2013, 4:01 PM EDT
If you had to bet big on a pitcher for the next seven years, Felix Hernandez seems as good a choice as any. He hasn’t been in Justin Verlander‘s league these last two years, but he also hasn’t been extended to 270 innings per year like Verlander has. And while I think I’d choose Clayton Kershaw over anyone, I do feel a little bit safer trusting someone with Hernandez’s thick build over the slighter left-hander. I think Kershaw is the better bet to contend for Cy Young awards deep into the decade, but Hernandez is the more likely of the two to still be throwing 220-230 excellent innings per season.
Still, it’s all just a guess. Pitching is inherently risky. Unlikely candidates have survived the rigors and won 200 games, and some who look like they’ll last forever are gone in an instant.
Since the expansion era started in 1961, Hernandez, with 32 WAR, is one of a dozen pitchers to have racked up at least 28 WAR through age 26 (using the Baseball-Reference version). Here are the other 11, their WARs through age 26 and their totals from age 27 onward.
Bert Blyleven – 47 WAR – 165-137, 3.71 ERA, 109 ERA+, 44 WAR
Tom Seaver – 35 WAR – 216-151, 3.07 ERA, 121 ERA+, 66 WAR
Dwight Gooden – 35 WAR – 62-59, 4.45 ERA, 99 ERA+, 11 WAR
Roger Clemens – 34 WAR – 259-139, 3.15 ERA, 144 ERA+, 99 WAR
Bret Saberhagen – 34 WAR – 70-47, 3.49 ERA, 124 ERA+. 22 WAR
Frank Tanana – 33 WAR – 138-158, 4.03 ERA, 100 ERA+, 20 WAR
Dave Stieb – 32 WAR – 95-70, 3.57 ERA, 116 ERA+. 22 WAR
Fernando Valenzuela – 30 WAR – 60-71, 4.29 ERA, 90 ERA+, 4 WAR
Pedro Martinez – 29 WAR – 135-54, 2.89 ERA, 160 ERA+, 53 WAR
Dennis Eckersley – 29 WAR – 99-99, 3.59 ERA, 114 ERA+, 30 WAR
Kevin Appier – 29 WAR – 109-93, 4.16 ERA, 112 ERA+, 23 WAR
Of the 11 best young starters in the last 50 years, just three accomplished more from age 27 onward than they did through age 26. There are three Hall of Famers on the list in Blyleven, Seaver and Eckersley and two more guys with Hall of Fame numbers in Clemens and Martinez. None of the other six came anywhere close to getting elected.
My feeling is that the Mariners should have waited on a Hernandez extension. He was under control for two more years at a total of $39.5 million. In essence, today’s seven-year, $175 million contract is really a five-year, $135.5 million extension. In guaranteeing Hernandez $27.1 million per year for those five years, the Mariners are giving him 10 percent more than any pitcher has ever gotten in a long-term contract. CC Sabathia‘s Yankees renegotiated deal, Cole Hamels‘ Phillies extension and Zack Greinke‘s free agent deal with the Dodgers were all for $24.4 million-$24.5 million per year. The Mariners weren’t getting any kind of discount here and thus should have revisited extension talks next winter.
On the other hand, it’s not really all that outrageous of a contract. Had Hernandez been a free agent this winter, he surely would have gotten $200 million on the open market. There’s also something to be said for a move like this reassuring the fanbase. The semi-annual “should Felix go” columns are out the window now, and eager Yankees and Red Sox fans will have to turn their attention elsewhere in search of prey. Salaries are likely to keep going up, so if Felix stays healthy, there’s a good chance he’ll be worth the money. The Mariners’ future through 2019 now hinges on it.
Jul 29, 2015, 3:56 PM EDT
Bradley gets another chance in Boston.
Jul 29, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
They’re in fourth place and their best player isn’t coming back for a month. Makes all sorts of sense.
Jul 29, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Some real old school mentality being demonstrated there.
Jul 29, 2015, 2:54 PM EDT
It was Verlander’s second straight eight inning, one-run performance.
Jul 29, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
Capuano failed to make it out of the first inning in Tuesday’s start.
Jul 29, 2015, 1:14 PM EDT
Jul 29, 2015, 12:19 PM EDT
At least to the extent you can have a bidding “war” over a two-month rental.
Jul 29, 2015, 11:51 AM EDT
Oh, and the Marlins gave away a draft pick too.
Jul 29, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Miami is 42-58.
Jul 29, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
Two homers, two games in a row and five in his last four games.
Jul 29, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
He won’t be closing this time.
Jul 29, 2015, 9:55 AM EDT
Jul 29, 2015, 9:37 AM EDT
And why on Earth did Bobby Cox wear a cup for every game? What was he possibly expecting?
Jul 29, 2015, 8:59 AM EDT
Saves = money for relief pitchers and Storen is gonna get a lot fewer saves now.
Jul 29, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Reached base five times too.
Jul 29, 2015, 7:28 AM EDT
Your mileage may vary, but for my money the ugliest game of the year happened last night.
Jul 28, 2015, 11:22 PM EDT
Alvarez served as the Marlins’ Opening Day starter …
Jul 28, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Red Sox center fielder Mookie Betts tracked down a hardly hit ball from White Sox slugger Jose Abreu on Tuesday night but lost it when he fell into the bullpen …
Jul 28, 2015, 9:32 PM EDT
Martinez was inducted into the Hall of Fame on Sunday.
Jul 28, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT
Hamels would join Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir in an excellent, postseason-ready Astros rotation.
- The Tigers are going to “reboot;” plan to trade Price and Cespedes 5
- Dodgers acquire Mat Latos and Michael Morse from Marlins 40
- Why do managers wear uniforms anyway? 41
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 51
- Astros “making a strong effort” for Phillies ace Cole Hamels 31
- Angels acquire outfielders David Murphy and David DeJesus 24
- Jenrry Mejia gets 162-game ban for second failed PED test 52
- Nationals, Phillies agree to Jonathan Papelbon trade 65
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Colin Cowherd wonders how baseball can be considered “complicated” if Dominicans can understand it (129)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Settling the Scores: Wednesday’s results (106)