Feb 7, 2013, 4:01 PM EDT
If you had to bet big on a pitcher for the next seven years, Felix Hernandez seems as good a choice as any. He hasn’t been in Justin Verlander‘s league these last two years, but he also hasn’t been extended to 270 innings per year like Verlander has. And while I think I’d choose Clayton Kershaw over anyone, I do feel a little bit safer trusting someone with Hernandez’s thick build over the slighter left-hander. I think Kershaw is the better bet to contend for Cy Young awards deep into the decade, but Hernandez is the more likely of the two to still be throwing 220-230 excellent innings per season.
Still, it’s all just a guess. Pitching is inherently risky. Unlikely candidates have survived the rigors and won 200 games, and some who look like they’ll last forever are gone in an instant.
Since the expansion era started in 1961, Hernandez, with 32 WAR, is one of a dozen pitchers to have racked up at least 28 WAR through age 26 (using the Baseball-Reference version). Here are the other 11, their WARs through age 26 and their totals from age 27 onward.
Bert Blyleven – 47 WAR – 165-137, 3.71 ERA, 109 ERA+, 44 WAR
Tom Seaver – 35 WAR – 216-151, 3.07 ERA, 121 ERA+, 66 WAR
Dwight Gooden – 35 WAR – 62-59, 4.45 ERA, 99 ERA+, 11 WAR
Roger Clemens – 34 WAR – 259-139, 3.15 ERA, 144 ERA+, 99 WAR
Bret Saberhagen – 34 WAR – 70-47, 3.49 ERA, 124 ERA+. 22 WAR
Frank Tanana – 33 WAR – 138-158, 4.03 ERA, 100 ERA+, 20 WAR
Dave Stieb – 32 WAR – 95-70, 3.57 ERA, 116 ERA+. 22 WAR
Fernando Valenzuela – 30 WAR – 60-71, 4.29 ERA, 90 ERA+, 4 WAR
Pedro Martinez – 29 WAR – 135-54, 2.89 ERA, 160 ERA+, 53 WAR
Dennis Eckersley – 29 WAR – 99-99, 3.59 ERA, 114 ERA+, 30 WAR
Kevin Appier – 29 WAR – 109-93, 4.16 ERA, 112 ERA+, 23 WAR
Of the 11 best young starters in the last 50 years, just three accomplished more from age 27 onward than they did through age 26. There are three Hall of Famers on the list in Blyleven, Seaver and Eckersley and two more guys with Hall of Fame numbers in Clemens and Martinez. None of the other six came anywhere close to getting elected.
My feeling is that the Mariners should have waited on a Hernandez extension. He was under control for two more years at a total of $39.5 million. In essence, today’s seven-year, $175 million contract is really a five-year, $135.5 million extension. In guaranteeing Hernandez $27.1 million per year for those five years, the Mariners are giving him 10 percent more than any pitcher has ever gotten in a long-term contract. CC Sabathia‘s Yankees renegotiated deal, Cole Hamels‘ Phillies extension and Zack Greinke‘s free agent deal with the Dodgers were all for $24.4 million-$24.5 million per year. The Mariners weren’t getting any kind of discount here and thus should have revisited extension talks next winter.
On the other hand, it’s not really all that outrageous of a contract. Had Hernandez been a free agent this winter, he surely would have gotten $200 million on the open market. There’s also something to be said for a move like this reassuring the fanbase. The semi-annual “should Felix go” columns are out the window now, and eager Yankees and Red Sox fans will have to turn their attention elsewhere in search of prey. Salaries are likely to keep going up, so if Felix stays healthy, there’s a good chance he’ll be worth the money. The Mariners’ future through 2019 now hinges on it.
Aug 21, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
After signing a four-year, $52 million contract with the Cubs last offseason Edwin Jackson struggled last season and has now been a mess this year, giving him a combined 14-32 record and 5.47 ERA in 57 starts for Chicago.
Aug 21, 2014, 11:32 AM EDT
He’ll rub some dirt on it and play through, but the Tigers really don’t need this.
Aug 21, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
The events taking place each evening on South Capitol Street are beginning to defy explanation.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
According to MLB.com the last minor leaguer with more than 41 homers in a season was Dallas McPherson of the Marlins with 42 at Triple-A in 2008.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
He was hurt Monday. Played Tuesday. Out yesterday. Now it’s MRI time.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Dating back to mid-May he has a 5.85 ERA in 17 starts, including an ERA higher than 4.50 in May, June, July, and August.
Aug 21, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT
When you put a football analyst on the baseball beat, you’re gonna have a bad time.
Aug 21, 2014, 9:08 AM EDT
It feels like baseball is interested in continuing its bad habit of solving minor problems in the most disruptive and gimmicky way possible.
Aug 21, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
Doing good deeds is not part of a TV broadcaster’s job, but people are friendlier in the Midwest.
Aug 21, 2014, 7:11 AM EDT
No one can stop the Nats. Who, as one young lad on their team says, are playing “absolutely epic” baseball right now.
Aug 20, 2014, 11:41 PM EDT
Yadier Molina is beginning to make some progress. Brian Stull of STL Baseball Weekly reports that the star catcher took swings in an indoor batting cage Wednesday at Busch Stadium for the first time since tearing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb July 9 on an awkward side-swiping slide into third base.
Aug 20, 2014, 10:37 PM EDT
Mo’ne Davis and the South Philadelphia Taney Dragons took their first blow Wednesday evening in the double-elimination Little League World Series.
Aug 20, 2014, 9:59 PM EDT
Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro was a late scratch from Wednesday night’s game against the Giants because what was called a family emergency. Now the heartbreaking details are out …
Aug 20, 2014, 8:43 PM EDT
The Angels just got dealt a potentially-major blow. Garrett Richards — who has suddenly developed into an ace this season at age 26 — was taken off on a stretcher Wednesday evening at Boston’s Fenway Park after suffering what looked to be a very serious right knee injury in the bottom of the second inning of his start against the host Red Sox.
Aug 20, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Watch as Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton pulls off a sensational double play Wednesday in St. Louis …
Aug 20, 2014, 7:39 PM EDT
A sudden torrential downpour Tuesday night in Chicago — and complications with applying the tarp — left Wrigley Field unplayable even after four hours of maintenance by the grounds crew, so the Cubs were awarded a 2-0 victory over the visiting Giants because that was the score when was play was halted after the top of the fifth inning. The Giants protested, and it actually worked …
Aug 20, 2014, 7:14 PM EDT
Padres center fielder Cameron Maybin has officially been reinstated from his 25-game amphetamine suspension.
Aug 20, 2014, 6:21 PM EDT
Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka was diagnosed in early July with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow — the injury that almost always leads to Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery — but he’s trying the rest and rehab route first and it’s actually going pretty smoothly so far.
Aug 20, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Wil Myers is off the disabled list after missing nearly three months with a fractured right wrist and the reigning Rookie of the Year winner is back in the Rays’ lineup.
Aug 20, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Over the weekend Carlos Beltran was cleared to play the outfield for the first time since May, but now his season-long elbow problems have returned and the 37-year-old has been scratched from the Yankees’ lineup.
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. 57
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 59
- Garrett Richards suffers ugly left knee injury 27
- Giants win protest, will complete rain-halted game at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon 44
- Royals might actually know what they are doing 33
- Curt Schilling reveals that he was diagnosed with mouth cancer, blames smokeless tobacco 71
- Clown shoes in Chicago: the Cubs grounds crew couldn’t get the tarp on the field 58
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 69
- Mike Matheny addresses turmoil in Ferguson: “It’s a sad situation. It’s a tough situation for our city” (127)
- Here’s today’s dose of barfy Derek Jeter sentiment (82)
- Let’s speed up the pace of play. But let’s not be gimmicky about it. Let’s just enforce the rules. (74)
- Curt Schilling reveals that he was diagnosed with mouth cancer, blames smokeless tobacco (71)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (69)