Feb 8, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Arizona GM Kevin Towers has mastered the art of buying high and selling low this winter.
In giving Aaron Hill a three-year, $35 million extension on Friday, Towers made another high-risk, low-upside move. Second basemen have a history of cratering earlier than most, and Hill is going to be 32-34 during the years his extension covers.
Of course, Hill was terrific last season, one of the NL’s 10 best players. However, he has a terribly inconsistent history on offense (Hill has a career OPS of .759, yet he hasn’t actually posted an OPS in the 700s since 2007), and his glovework has gone from outstanding in his mid-20s to above average now. He’ll almost certainly be a below average defender by the time his new deal ends in 2016.
The big problem here is that Hill is going to play this year at 31. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2014. Contracts of this type for second basemen in their 30s are practically unheard of and for good reason.
According to Baseball-reference, Hill has accrued 21.4 WAR through age 30. Here’s a list of every other second baseman since 1900 to amass between 18 and 25 WAR through age 30 and what they did from ages 32-34, the years Hill’s extension covers.
Jimmy Williams – .195/.257/.235 in 374 AB – (0.7) WAR
Del Pratt – .313/.370/.437 in 1,702 AB – 10.2 WAR
Max Bishop – .271/.433/.368 in 1,053 AB – 8.5 WAR
Red Schoendienst – .293/.345/.403 in 1,688 AB – 9.7 WAR
Bobby Avila – .247/.334/.343 in 1,351 AB – 3.0 WAR
Ron Hunt – .285/.395/.320 in 827 AB – 3.7 WAR
Davey Johnson – .325/.411/.554 in 157 AB – 1.8 WAR
Dave Cash – .227/.287/.280 in 397 AB – (0.7) WAR
Steve Sax – .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB – (0.6) WAR
Bill Doran – .272/.372/.387 in 1,151 AB – 4.9 WAR
Robby Thompson – .217/.307/.340 in 692 AB – 1.7 WAR
Delino DeShields – .221/.329/.340 in 497 AB – 0.2 WAR
Ray Durham – .289/.360/.484 in 1,466 AB – 7.1 WAR
Luis Castillo – .270/.366/.315 in 1,031 AB – 0.9 WAR
Brian Roberts – .244/.308/.340 in 459 AB – 0.1 WAR
Orlando Hudson – .246/.318/.352 in 1,155 AB – 3.1 WAR
The old-timers don’t look so bad. Pratt, who played from 1912-24, sustained no drop-off due to age, and Schoendienst, a late-bloomer as a hitter, ended up in the Hall of Fame. However, of the 11 players here to play in the last 50 years (everyone after Hunt), only Durham maintained his previous level of production at ages 32-34. Most of the rest weren’t useful at all. That’s the tendency with second basemen: once they stop being quality regulars, their lack of versatility prevents them from contributing even as part-timers.
Taken altogether, the average player here produced 3.3 WAR from ages 32-34. The Diamondbacks are expecting much more than that from Hill after guaranteeing him $11.67 million per year. History suggests they’ll almost surely end up disappointed.
May 29, 2015, 11:59 PM EDT
The Brewers designated reliever Brandon Kintzler for assignment on Friday afternoon but rescinded it and put him on the 15-day disabled list instead.
Tony Cingrani hits Bryce Harper in the back with a pitch, then complains he was too slow getting to first base
May 29, 2015, 11:41 PM EDT
Bryce Harper was hit square in the back with a fastball and had the gall not to sprint immediately to first base. What nerve!
May 29, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Alex “Chi Chi” Gonzalez will make his major league debut on Saturday against the Red Sox.
May 29, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
Rafael Soriano still wants to pitch and has fired agent Scott Boras in an effort to find work.
May 29, 2015, 9:18 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton hit his first home run of the season on Friday night against the Red Sox.
May 29, 2015, 8:52 PM EDT
Rockies starter Chad Bettis is trying to throw a no-hitter against the Phillies.
May 29, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
The Mets will be without catcher Travis d’Arnaud a little while longer due to a bone bruise in his wrist.
May 29, 2015, 8:08 PM EDT
The Mariners will lose starter James Paxton for a couple of weeks due to strained finger tendon.
May 29, 2015, 7:42 PM EDT
Stephen Strasburg came out of Friday’s start after facing one batter in the second inning against the Reds.
May 29, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
More than one in two fans of major league baseball prefer having the pitcher hit as opposed to a designated hitter.
May 29, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Tuffy Gosewisch may be dealing with a torn ACL, which would likely end his season.
May 29, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
Wieters hasn’t played in the majors in nearly 13 months.
May 29, 2015, 4:33 PM EDT
Schilling says Amaro lacks self awareness, is elitist and has not been successful as a manager.
May 29, 2015, 3:55 PM EDT
Or much of anything else, really.
May 29, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Feldman is in the second season of a three-year, $30 million deal.
May 29, 2015, 3:16 PM EDT
“Wow. That is an EXPLOSION of cheese.”
May 29, 2015, 2:31 PM EDT
Sizemore hit just .250 with three homers and a .657 OPS in 99 games for the Phillies.
May 29, 2015, 2:08 PM EDT
Hint: he was doing it with the Braves too.
May 29, 2015, 1:01 PM EDT
Rios has been out since mid-April.
May 29, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT
43-years-old in years, 16 in temperament.
- Video: Josh Hamilton hits his first home run of the season 15
- Rockies starter Chad Bettis loses his no-hitter in the eighth inning 1
- Stephen Strasburg exits start in the second inning with an apparent injury 4
- More than half of polled baseball fans prefer having the pitcher hit 57
- The Marlins aren’t happy with the Dan Jennings hire 42
- Andrew McCutchen is doing just fine now, thank you 20
- The schedule: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it 69