Feb 8, 2013, 1:00 PM EST
Arizona GM Kevin Towers has mastered the art of buying high and selling low this winter.
In giving Aaron Hill a three-year, $35 million extension on Friday, Towers made another high-risk, low-upside move. Second basemen have a history of cratering earlier than most, and Hill is going to be 32-34 during the years his extension covers.
Of course, Hill was terrific last season, one of the NL’s 10 best players. However, he has a terribly inconsistent history on offense (Hill has a career OPS of .759, yet he hasn’t actually posted an OPS in the 700s since 2007), and his glovework has gone from outstanding in his mid-20s to above average now. He’ll almost certainly be a below average defender by the time his new deal ends in 2016.
The big problem here is that Hill is going to play this year at 31. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2014. Contracts of this type for second basemen in their 30s are practically unheard of and for good reason.
According to Baseball-reference, Hill has accrued 21.4 WAR through age 30. Here’s a list of every other second baseman since 1900 to amass between 18 and 25 WAR through age 30 and what they did from ages 32-34, the years Hill’s extension covers.
Jimmy Williams – .195/.257/.235 in 374 AB – (0.7) WAR
Del Pratt – .313/.370/.437 in 1,702 AB – 10.2 WAR
Max Bishop – .271/.433/.368 in 1,053 AB – 8.5 WAR
Red Schoendienst – .293/.345/.403 in 1,688 AB – 9.7 WAR
Bobby Avila – .247/.334/.343 in 1,351 AB – 3.0 WAR
Ron Hunt – .285/.395/.320 in 827 AB – 3.7 WAR
Davey Johnson – .325/.411/.554 in 157 AB – 1.8 WAR
Dave Cash – .227/.287/.280 in 397 AB – (0.7) WAR
Steve Sax – .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB – (0.6) WAR
Bill Doran – .272/.372/.387 in 1,151 AB – 4.9 WAR
Robby Thompson – .217/.307/.340 in 692 AB – 1.7 WAR
Delino DeShields – .221/.329/.340 in 497 AB – 0.2 WAR
Ray Durham – .289/.360/.484 in 1,466 AB – 7.1 WAR
Luis Castillo – .270/.366/.315 in 1,031 AB – 0.9 WAR
Brian Roberts – .244/.308/.340 in 459 AB – 0.1 WAR
Orlando Hudson – .246/.318/.352 in 1,155 AB – 3.1 WAR
The old-timers don’t look so bad. Pratt, who played from 1912-24, sustained no drop-off due to age, and Schoendienst, a late-bloomer as a hitter, ended up in the Hall of Fame. However, of the 11 players here to play in the last 50 years (everyone after Hunt), only Durham maintained his previous level of production at ages 32-34. Most of the rest weren’t useful at all. That’s the tendency with second basemen: once they stop being quality regulars, their lack of versatility prevents them from contributing even as part-timers.
Taken altogether, the average player here produced 3.3 WAR from ages 32-34. The Diamondbacks are expecting much more than that from Hill after guaranteeing him $11.67 million per year. History suggests they’ll almost surely end up disappointed.
Jan 26, 2015, 7:09 PM EST
The announcement comes after the Blue Jays reportedly ended their pursuit of Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette.
Jan 26, 2015, 6:30 PM EST
The 29-year-old hit just .245/.304/.347 with three home runs and nine RBI across 81 games with the Braves last season and was designated for assignment in November.
I don’t know if Dustin Pedroia is in the Best Shape of His life, but he IS posing with his shirt off
Jan 26, 2015, 5:04 PM EST
Before cell phone cameras we just sat around and posed in the mirror. Now we can share that with everyone.
Jan 26, 2015, 4:16 PM EST
Norris asked for $10.25 million and the Orioles countered at $7.5 million.
Jan 26, 2015, 3:49 PM EST
Buck joins Christian Bethancourt and A.J. Pierzynski on the Braves’ catching depth chart.
Jan 26, 2015, 3:35 PM EST
Now, if they’ll bring back the beer mug Bernie slides into, everything will be A-OK.
Jan 26, 2015, 2:42 PM EST
I’m sure you’ve been worried about whether he would.
Jan 26, 2015, 2:10 PM EST
Parmelee was dropped by the Twins last month.
Jan 26, 2015, 1:18 PM EST
Mesoraco is arbitration eligible for the first time at age 26 and filed for $3.6 million, while the Reds countered at $2.45 million.
Jan 26, 2015, 1:00 PM EST
Wade Boggs is . . . the World’s Most Interesting Man
Jan 26, 2015, 12:28 PM EST
If it was a human it would’ve almost made it to the first grade. But now it is dead, aged just short of six years.
Jan 26, 2015, 11:29 AM EST
If you made a trade with St. Louis in the 90s and 2000s, you likely got the bad end of that trade. Because of this guy.
Jan 26, 2015, 10:57 AM EST
Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after you.
Jan 26, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
“I don’t know if my metabolism is slowing down from getting older or what, but I feel good.”
Jan 26, 2015, 9:31 AM EST
Hey guys, if things break just right we may get another A-Rod lawsuit!
Jan 26, 2015, 9:00 AM EST
Short version: The man knows how to budget. Mets fans can’t dispute that.
Jan 26, 2015, 8:30 AM EST
A solution in search of a problem. Or, at the very least, a solution that would be worse than the problem.
Jan 26, 2015, 6:46 AM EST
We are approaching the day when a Hall of Famer with over 3,000 hits and a career .328 batting average will be best known for knocking back cold ones.
Jan 25, 2015, 11:15 PM EST
Corey Kluber won the AL Cy Young Award for his great 2014 season and now the Indians will have to consider whether or not they want to sign him to a contract extension.
Jan 25, 2015, 10:35 PM EST
With Yovani Gallardo out of the picture, Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he’s not looking to add a notable starting pitcher.
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