Feb 8, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Arizona GM Kevin Towers has mastered the art of buying high and selling low this winter.
In giving Aaron Hill a three-year, $35 million extension on Friday, Towers made another high-risk, low-upside move. Second basemen have a history of cratering earlier than most, and Hill is going to be 32-34 during the years his extension covers.
Of course, Hill was terrific last season, one of the NL’s 10 best players. However, he has a terribly inconsistent history on offense (Hill has a career OPS of .759, yet he hasn’t actually posted an OPS in the 700s since 2007), and his glovework has gone from outstanding in his mid-20s to above average now. He’ll almost certainly be a below average defender by the time his new deal ends in 2016.
The big problem here is that Hill is going to play this year at 31. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2014. Contracts of this type for second basemen in their 30s are practically unheard of and for good reason.
According to Baseball-reference, Hill has accrued 21.4 WAR through age 30. Here’s a list of every other second baseman since 1900 to amass between 18 and 25 WAR through age 30 and what they did from ages 32-34, the years Hill’s extension covers.
Jimmy Williams – .195/.257/.235 in 374 AB – (0.7) WAR
Del Pratt – .313/.370/.437 in 1,702 AB – 10.2 WAR
Max Bishop – .271/.433/.368 in 1,053 AB – 8.5 WAR
Red Schoendienst – .293/.345/.403 in 1,688 AB – 9.7 WAR
Bobby Avila – .247/.334/.343 in 1,351 AB – 3.0 WAR
Ron Hunt – .285/.395/.320 in 827 AB – 3.7 WAR
Davey Johnson – .325/.411/.554 in 157 AB – 1.8 WAR
Dave Cash – .227/.287/.280 in 397 AB – (0.7) WAR
Steve Sax – .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB – (0.6) WAR
Bill Doran – .272/.372/.387 in 1,151 AB – 4.9 WAR
Robby Thompson – .217/.307/.340 in 692 AB – 1.7 WAR
Delino DeShields – .221/.329/.340 in 497 AB – 0.2 WAR
Ray Durham – .289/.360/.484 in 1,466 AB – 7.1 WAR
Luis Castillo – .270/.366/.315 in 1,031 AB – 0.9 WAR
Brian Roberts – .244/.308/.340 in 459 AB – 0.1 WAR
Orlando Hudson – .246/.318/.352 in 1,155 AB – 3.1 WAR
The old-timers don’t look so bad. Pratt, who played from 1912-24, sustained no drop-off due to age, and Schoendienst, a late-bloomer as a hitter, ended up in the Hall of Fame. However, of the 11 players here to play in the last 50 years (everyone after Hunt), only Durham maintained his previous level of production at ages 32-34. Most of the rest weren’t useful at all. That’s the tendency with second basemen: once they stop being quality regulars, their lack of versatility prevents them from contributing even as part-timers.
Taken altogether, the average player here produced 3.3 WAR from ages 32-34. The Diamondbacks are expecting much more than that from Hill after guaranteeing him $11.67 million per year. History suggests they’ll almost surely end up disappointed.
May 4, 2015, 12:25 PM EDT
The Selig rule requires that requires that every club consider minority candidates for manager positions. There really wasn’t a search for Ron Roenicke’s replacement in Milwaukee.
May 4, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
0-4 with a 6.29 ERA.
May 4, 2015, 11:29 AM EDT
Milwaukee now has the guy who had easily the best batting stance of any current manager.
May 4, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Nearly a month ago Hardy was said to be “close” to starting a rehab stint.
May 4, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Seven errors in 21 games.
May 4, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
He says “it’s family business” and that “the old A-Rod is gone.”
May 4, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
This is getting ridiculous.
May 4, 2015, 9:49 AM EDT
This is the shortest post in the history of HBT.
May 4, 2015, 9:10 AM EDT
And noting how the Yankees can and do sell everything that isn’t nailed down but somehow can’t figure out how to market home run number 660.
May 4, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
“I got it”
May 4, 2015, 7:24 AM EDT
Some late-inning heroics. Extra-innings heroics, actually. Like baseball is some kind of gosh darned after hours club or something.
May 4, 2015, 12:23 AM EDT
The Brewers acted quickly to find a new manager after firing Ron Roenicke on Sunday night.
May 3, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
The Dodgers acquired first baseman Andy Wilkins from the Blue Jays and designated Scott Baker for assignment on Sunday.
May 3, 2015, 11:35 PM EDT
The Padres are expected to promote catching prospect Austin Hedges on Monday.
May 3, 2015, 11:10 PM EDT
The Athletics released Cody Ross on Sunday.
May 3, 2015, 10:29 PM EDT
Ron Roenicke is the first casualty of the Brewers’ poor start to the season.
May 3, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
Would Joe Mauer better serve the Twins in the leadoff spot?
May 3, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
White Sox manager Robin Ventura has taken some heat for the team’s slow start, but first baseman Jose Abreu stuck up for him.
May 3, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
Jean Segura was hit in the head by a pitch attempting to bunt. Thankfully, he appears to be okay.
May 3, 2015, 7:10 PM EDT
The Cardinals won again in walk-off fashion and now own baseball’s best record.
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 67
- Report: Brewers hire Craig Counsell to replace Ron Roenicke 24
- Brewers fire manager Ron Roenicke 53
- Jordan Walden lands on disabled list with biceps injury 11
- Rays place outfielder Desmond Jennings on 15-day disabled list with bursitis in his left knee 1
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 34
- Torii Hunter doesn’t care what Floyd Mayweather has done outside of the boxing ring 133
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman acknowledges team won’t pay A-Rod $6 million bonus for 660th home run 69
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal (363)
- Comment of the Day: do not underestimate the seriousness of the anti-DH crowd (201)
- Monday’s White Sox/Orioles game postponed due to ongoing protests and violence in Baltimore (162)
- Torii Hunter doesn’t care what Floyd Mayweather has done outside of the boxing ring (133)
- The Orioles will play to no fans tomorrow; this weekend’s series will move to Tropicana Field (125)