Feb 8, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Arizona GM Kevin Towers has mastered the art of buying high and selling low this winter.
In giving Aaron Hill a three-year, $35 million extension on Friday, Towers made another high-risk, low-upside move. Second basemen have a history of cratering earlier than most, and Hill is going to be 32-34 during the years his extension covers.
Of course, Hill was terrific last season, one of the NL’s 10 best players. However, he has a terribly inconsistent history on offense (Hill has a career OPS of .759, yet he hasn’t actually posted an OPS in the 700s since 2007), and his glovework has gone from outstanding in his mid-20s to above average now. He’ll almost certainly be a below average defender by the time his new deal ends in 2016.
The big problem here is that Hill is going to play this year at 31. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2014. Contracts of this type for second basemen in their 30s are practically unheard of and for good reason.
According to Baseball-reference, Hill has accrued 21.4 WAR through age 30. Here’s a list of every other second baseman since 1900 to amass between 18 and 25 WAR through age 30 and what they did from ages 32-34, the years Hill’s extension covers.
Jimmy Williams – .195/.257/.235 in 374 AB – (0.7) WAR
Del Pratt – .313/.370/.437 in 1,702 AB – 10.2 WAR
Max Bishop – .271/.433/.368 in 1,053 AB – 8.5 WAR
Red Schoendienst – .293/.345/.403 in 1,688 AB – 9.7 WAR
Bobby Avila – .247/.334/.343 in 1,351 AB – 3.0 WAR
Ron Hunt – .285/.395/.320 in 827 AB – 3.7 WAR
Davey Johnson – .325/.411/.554 in 157 AB – 1.8 WAR
Dave Cash – .227/.287/.280 in 397 AB – (0.7) WAR
Steve Sax – .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB – (0.6) WAR
Bill Doran – .272/.372/.387 in 1,151 AB – 4.9 WAR
Robby Thompson – .217/.307/.340 in 692 AB – 1.7 WAR
Delino DeShields – .221/.329/.340 in 497 AB – 0.2 WAR
Ray Durham – .289/.360/.484 in 1,466 AB – 7.1 WAR
Luis Castillo – .270/.366/.315 in 1,031 AB – 0.9 WAR
Brian Roberts – .244/.308/.340 in 459 AB – 0.1 WAR
Orlando Hudson – .246/.318/.352 in 1,155 AB – 3.1 WAR
The old-timers don’t look so bad. Pratt, who played from 1912-24, sustained no drop-off due to age, and Schoendienst, a late-bloomer as a hitter, ended up in the Hall of Fame. However, of the 11 players here to play in the last 50 years (everyone after Hunt), only Durham maintained his previous level of production at ages 32-34. Most of the rest weren’t useful at all. That’s the tendency with second basemen: once they stop being quality regulars, their lack of versatility prevents them from contributing even as part-timers.
Taken altogether, the average player here produced 3.3 WAR from ages 32-34. The Diamondbacks are expecting much more than that from Hill after guaranteeing him $11.67 million per year. History suggests they’ll almost surely end up disappointed.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:57 AM EDT
Injuries are mounting for the first place Giants.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:34 AM EDT
A great, great ballplayer seems to be in denial about his career being over.
Jul 25, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
With Joakim Soria watching from the sidelines, the Tigers embattled closer shuts down one of the best offenses in baseball.
Jul 25, 2014, 7:17 AM EDT
Ryan Raburn is gonna be buying Corey Kluber steaks for the foreseeable future.
Jul 25, 2014, 6:47 AM EDT
It was a day of blowouts and fine pitching performances.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:19 PM EDT
The Yankees are reportedly considering a reunion with right-hander Ian Kennedy.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:18 PM EDT
Jonathan Papelbon was booed by Phillies fans this afternoon, but it didn’t bother him. In fact, he says bring it on.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
Chad Qualls quietly owns a 1.78 ERA this season. The Astros are reluctant to deal him.
Jul 24, 2014, 9:25 PM EDT
Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel tossed a baseball to a heckler during today’s game against the Athletics. And the ball contained a clever message.
Jul 24, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
When the Astros failed to agree to terms with No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken earlier this month, many speculated that the next step would be a grievance against the team from the MLBPA. That’s exactly what has happened.
Jul 24, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
The Mariners brought back Kendrys Morales in a deal with the Twins today, but they aren’t done attempting to upgrade.
Jul 24, 2014, 7:09 PM EDT
The Phillies appear ready to move on from Ryan Howard.
Jul 24, 2014, 6:31 PM EDT
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman continues to stay busy.
Jul 24, 2014, 6:13 PM EDT
Zach Putnam has had a share of the closer role with the White Sox in recent weeks, but now he’s headed to the 15-day disabled list due to right shoulder inflammation.
Jul 24, 2014, 5:47 PM EDT
Before the injury Correa was having an excellent season, hitting .325 with 20 steals in 62 games at high Single-A as a 19-year-old.
Jul 24, 2014, 5:32 PM EDT
It’s been bad in Philly. Is it starting to get ugly?
Jul 24, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT
Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka is supposed to rest for six weeks before doctors determine if he needs Tommy John elbow surgery, but 10 days into the process things aren’t going well.
Jul 24, 2014, 4:49 PM EDT
Jul 24, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
Frank Thomas is headed to the Hall of Fame thanks to his legendary batting eye.
Jul 24, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Everyone has a gift. This is my gift. I shall now share it with you.
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