Comments on: Thinking about Stephen Strasburg’s workload

By: fanofevilempire

fanofevilempire — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:39:10 +0000

just put him in a glass box………………..

By: tpxdmd

tpxdmd — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 00:23:01 +0000

@echech88- that would be true if only it was actually true. Baseball Prospectus’ Russel Carleton just wrote a fantastic piece (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19653) that actually did some nice regressions with an injury database and among his conclusions are that pitchers who had an elbow injury two years ago are 10 times as likely to have another elbow injury this season as compared to this who don’t (15.2% of pitchers with an elbow injury two years prior had one in a given season, vs 1.8% of those who didn’t). In fact, the best predictive factor of whether or not someone will have an injury appears to be if they’ve had a previous injury. The second best predictive factor- pitches thrown.

Which brings me to my question, instead of an innings limits, why aren’t they tracking pitches thrown, since you know, not all innings are made the same, while a pitch is a pitch….

By: echech88

echech88 — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 00:09:47 +0000

Meanwhile Justin Verlander regularly throws 120 pitches a game and is being talked about as being in line for a $200M contract.

No science that shows this kid should have any kind of restrictions this season.

By: DelawarePhilliesFan

DelawarePhilliesFan — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 23:18:04 +0000

“The one problem is there’s no mechanism in MLB for a healthy player to not play”

enter John Smoltz, who said starters should be allowed to skip 2 starts a year. He also noted that a lot of 15 DL trips by pitchers are fake excuses for a rest, and both sides know it, so just codify what already goes on anyway. After he said that, I realized there were many times a starter would go on the 15 DL, and the teams would instantly say “we are 100% confidant he will be fine when he returns”.

By: shea801

shea801 — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 21:32:40 +0000

Is he really this fragile? Jesus, man up. If all you’re concentrating on is not getting hurt, or re-injure yourself, you’re gonna get hurt and re-injure yourself!

By: rdanie29

rdanie29 — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 21:24:45 +0000

Aww, come on gnyj85 . It’s not like anyone has a crystal ball and knows with any certainty that the Nats are even going to make the post-season. And the 8 or so starts or so that you propose to hold him out might be the 8 wins that they need to get to October. Just be a fan and let those who get paid to know, do their jobs.

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 20:58:25 +0000

I tried proposing that last year. No one bought in. The one problem is there's no mechanism in MLB for a healthy player to not play. The Nationals could have tried stashing Strasburg on the DL, but given that there was no actual injury, someone could have raised a stink. And while they would have been allowed to send him to the minors, since he has options remaining, there's no way Scott Boras would have gone for that, since it would have cost him service time. It's not an issue in September, since with the rosters expanded to 40, there's no harm in carrying a player who isn't playing.

By: gnyj85

gnyj85 — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 20:52:42 +0000

Can someone explain to me why they dont start pitching strasburg in like may so when october comes they dont need to worry his innings? Coming off an arm injury the worst time to pitch would be early in the season when it’s cold