Mar 4, 2013, 1:24 PM EDT
So, get ready for a bit of a shocker. I was on a panel with Farhan Zaidi of the Oakland A’s. He’s a great guy. A’s general manager Billy Beane often calls him “Emotional Stat Guy,” which he says will be the name of his fantasy baseball team (though I personally think it would be a better band name.*) Zaidi is utterly brilliant — economics degree from MIT, Ph.D from Cal Berkeley in economics — and a lot of fun to talk with about baseball.
*Zaidi told a great story about his interview with Billy Beane, who he idolized. It was 2003, and he was doing some consulting and fantasy sports work — basically, he was overqualified for whatever he was doing. He heard about an Oakland opening. He fished out an old resume and, without really reviewing it, sent it off to Billy Beane. One thing he had forgotten was that in the personal section of the resume, he had mentioned that he liked Britpop — you know, Suede, Sleeper, Oasis, a bunch of those Wonderwall bands that were cool in certain circles in the mid-to-late 1990s. Unfortunately, it was now 2003.
First thing Beane said to Zaidi was, “So, I understand you like Britpop.” Zaidi felt his face go white hot as he sunk into his chair. He started to hem and haw about how he had not updated his resume in a while and that, you know, er, well, it’s just kind of …
At which point, Billy Beane said: “I am the biggest Oasis fan.”
How that scene was left out of Moneyball, I’ll never know.
So before the panel began, we were talking about all sorts of things, when the 2012 American League MVP argument came up. Yes, we’re still talking about it. In very general terms, the argument seemed to split baseball fans between those who embrace the new baseball metrics and those who do not.
That’s a sweeping generalization and does not tell the full story — there were brilliant mathematicians in the Cabrera camp and staunch traditionalists in the Trout camp. But in general terms, the traditional statistics (Triple Crown!) and general principles pointed to Cabrera. And the advanced statistics seemed to show that Trout wasn’t just better than Cabrera but markedly better.
Baseball Reference WAR
Trout: 10.7 WAR
Cabrera: 6.9 WAR
Trout: 10.0 WAR
Cabrera: 7.1 WAR
That isn’t all that close. Basically WAR — and some other advances metrics — showed that whatever advantages Cabrera had in terms of power and batting average and timely hitting were swamped by Trout’s advantages as a fielder, base runner and player who gets on base. The argument made sense to many of us who champion the advanced statistics and their power to get closer to a player’s true value.
The Cabrera arguments, for the most part, were more about gut instinct, intangibles and the power of old statistics. Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Cabrera hit better down the stretch. Cabrera’s team made the playoffs. These arguments made sense to many baseball fans.
The two sides basically talked around each other for months. The gut arguments meant nothing at all to the sabermetric people, who feel like those gut arguments are shallow and often wildly off. The sabermetric arguments meant nothing at all to the people who do not trust a lot of these new statistics and feel like they are draining the fun out of the game. Back and forth it went, but neither side seemed to move any closer together.
Zaidi and I were talking about this when he told me something that I found utterly staggering. He said that Oakland’s objective model for measuring a player’s value — remember now, we are talking about the Oakland A’s, the Moneyball people, Jonah Hill and so on — found that Miguel Cabrera, NOT Mike Trout, was more valuable in 2012.
Well, that’s not exactly right. He was quick to say that the difference between the two was so slight as to be almost invisible — they were, for an intents and purposes, in a virtual tie. But their system did have Cabrera ahead by the tiniest of margins.
I thought that was a pretty big deal. I know last year, a lot of people were spending a lot of energy trying to find a convincing statistical model that showed Cabrera was better than Trout. If there was one, I didn’t see it. Now, it turns out that Oakland (Oakland!) has such a statistical model.
We did not have time to get into details — and Zaidi might not have done that anyway since the A’s model for measuring players is proprietary — but I think the point comes through. Statistics are tools. People use tools differently. People see the world differently. Give someone a pen and paper, she or he might sketch out a breathtaking mathematical formula … or scribble a prescription … or write down the amazing story of a young boy who has discovered he is a wizard … or a sketch of a flying car … or draw a Calvin and Hobbes panel … or a million other things.
Give a lot of different smart people the Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout data, you should get different ways of using that data. And you just might get different answers. It’s an important thing to remember, I think.
My sense, based on my reading of the numbers, Trout was better than Cabrera. I also readily concede Zaidi and the people in the Oakland front office are a lot smarter than I am.
Sep 21, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT
Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez suffered a strained pectoral muscle on August 8 and then reaggravated it August 25. But he’s making swift progress now …
Sep 21, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT
Rangers outfielder Alex Rios hasn’t appeared in a game since September 4 due to a nagging right thumb injury, and he’s not going to be rushed back for the final week.
Sep 21, 2014, 1:08 PM EDT
Astros pitching coach Brent Strom announced Sunday that ace left-hander Dallas Keuchel won’t make another start this season.
Sep 21, 2014, 12:20 PM EDT
It’s been a lost season for the Yankees’ outfielder.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT
A far more recent past than most people will admit.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:06 AM EDT
His presence will give the Nats a ton of flexibility down the stretch.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:40 AM EDT
Like we always say: he giveth and he taketh away. Yesterday he gaveth.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
He said it rather than tweeted it. Which is sad, because I had good money on it coming out “your just an idiot” if he had tweeted it.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT
Bud Black will be back for year nine at the helm of the Padres.
Sep 21, 2014, 8:04 AM EDT
The Royals are not doing too well in the biggest series to hit Kansas City in 29 years.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Nick Franklin hit the “C” ring catwalk at Tropicana Field with a deep fly ball to right field, which was initially ruled a home run. Replay review confirmed the ruling.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
The pitching-light Dodgers will have Jamey Wright make his second start in the last seven years on Sunday against the Cubs.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
Jerome Williams continued to pitch well for the Phillies, even notching a baseball first in the process of defeating the Athletics on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:19 PM EDT
Matt Garza doesn’t hit many batters, but the right-hander managed to hit Andrew McCutchen twice in his start on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:35 PM EDT
Mark Teixeira’s wrist injury flared up again, forcing him out of Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays in the fifth inning.
Sep 20, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton has received a lot of pain-killing injections lately, as the veteran has battled shoulder and rib cage problems over the last two weeks.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
Jason Kipnis is listed as day-to-day with a sore right hamstring.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
Glen Perkins tried to tough out an injury and it didn’t go so well, but he seems to have learned his lesson.
Sep 20, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
This was a day of missed opportunities for the Royals.
Sep 20, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT
Zimmerman has been sidelined since July 22 due to a Grade 3 strain of his right hamstring.
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- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 24
- Matt Garza ejected after hitting Andrew McCutchen a second time 33
- Tigers hang on for second straight win against Royals 8
- Phil Hughes could finish the season with the best K/BB ratio in MLB history 13
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 26
- Clayton Kershaw wins his 20th game of the season 13
- Why are so many people acting like Bryce Harper is a bum? 81
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- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife (103)
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned (101)
- Umpire ejects jackwagon fan heckling Bryce Harper in Atlanta last night (85)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (83)