Mar 4, 2013, 1:24 PM EST
So, get ready for a bit of a shocker. I was on a panel with Farhan Zaidi of the Oakland A’s. He’s a great guy. A’s general manager Billy Beane often calls him “Emotional Stat Guy,” which he says will be the name of his fantasy baseball team (though I personally think it would be a better band name.*) Zaidi is utterly brilliant — economics degree from MIT, Ph.D from Cal Berkeley in economics — and a lot of fun to talk with about baseball.
*Zaidi told a great story about his interview with Billy Beane, who he idolized. It was 2003, and he was doing some consulting and fantasy sports work — basically, he was overqualified for whatever he was doing. He heard about an Oakland opening. He fished out an old resume and, without really reviewing it, sent it off to Billy Beane. One thing he had forgotten was that in the personal section of the resume, he had mentioned that he liked Britpop — you know, Suede, Sleeper, Oasis, a bunch of those Wonderwall bands that were cool in certain circles in the mid-to-late 1990s. Unfortunately, it was now 2003.
First thing Beane said to Zaidi was, “So, I understand you like Britpop.” Zaidi felt his face go white hot as he sunk into his chair. He started to hem and haw about how he had not updated his resume in a while and that, you know, er, well, it’s just kind of …
At which point, Billy Beane said: “I am the biggest Oasis fan.”
How that scene was left out of Moneyball, I’ll never know.
So before the panel began, we were talking about all sorts of things, when the 2012 American League MVP argument came up. Yes, we’re still talking about it. In very general terms, the argument seemed to split baseball fans between those who embrace the new baseball metrics and those who do not.
That’s a sweeping generalization and does not tell the full story — there were brilliant mathematicians in the Cabrera camp and staunch traditionalists in the Trout camp. But in general terms, the traditional statistics (Triple Crown!) and general principles pointed to Cabrera. And the advanced statistics seemed to show that Trout wasn’t just better than Cabrera but markedly better.
Baseball Reference WAR
Trout: 10.7 WAR
Cabrera: 6.9 WAR
Trout: 10.0 WAR
Cabrera: 7.1 WAR
That isn’t all that close. Basically WAR — and some other advances metrics — showed that whatever advantages Cabrera had in terms of power and batting average and timely hitting were swamped by Trout’s advantages as a fielder, base runner and player who gets on base. The argument made sense to many of us who champion the advanced statistics and their power to get closer to a player’s true value.
The Cabrera arguments, for the most part, were more about gut instinct, intangibles and the power of old statistics. Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Cabrera hit better down the stretch. Cabrera’s team made the playoffs. These arguments made sense to many baseball fans.
The two sides basically talked around each other for months. The gut arguments meant nothing at all to the sabermetric people, who feel like those gut arguments are shallow and often wildly off. The sabermetric arguments meant nothing at all to the people who do not trust a lot of these new statistics and feel like they are draining the fun out of the game. Back and forth it went, but neither side seemed to move any closer together.
Zaidi and I were talking about this when he told me something that I found utterly staggering. He said that Oakland’s objective model for measuring a player’s value — remember now, we are talking about the Oakland A’s, the Moneyball people, Jonah Hill and so on — found that Miguel Cabrera, NOT Mike Trout, was more valuable in 2012.
Well, that’s not exactly right. He was quick to say that the difference between the two was so slight as to be almost invisible — they were, for an intents and purposes, in a virtual tie. But their system did have Cabrera ahead by the tiniest of margins.
I thought that was a pretty big deal. I know last year, a lot of people were spending a lot of energy trying to find a convincing statistical model that showed Cabrera was better than Trout. If there was one, I didn’t see it. Now, it turns out that Oakland (Oakland!) has such a statistical model.
We did not have time to get into details — and Zaidi might not have done that anyway since the A’s model for measuring players is proprietary — but I think the point comes through. Statistics are tools. People use tools differently. People see the world differently. Give someone a pen and paper, she or he might sketch out a breathtaking mathematical formula … or scribble a prescription … or write down the amazing story of a young boy who has discovered he is a wizard … or a sketch of a flying car … or draw a Calvin and Hobbes panel … or a million other things.
Give a lot of different smart people the Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout data, you should get different ways of using that data. And you just might get different answers. It’s an important thing to remember, I think.
My sense, based on my reading of the numbers, Trout was better than Cabrera. I also readily concede Zaidi and the people in the Oakland front office are a lot smarter than I am.
Mar 2, 2015, 3:45 PM EST
Lester joined the Cubs on a six-year, $155 million deal in December.
Mar 2, 2015, 2:45 PM EST
Don’t. Praise. The. Machine.
Mar 2, 2015, 1:48 PM EST
Hart is attempting to resurrect his career on a one-year deal as a part-timer in Pittsburgh.
Mar 2, 2015, 1:27 PM EST
Shocking, I know.
Mar 2, 2015, 11:50 AM EST
GM says “they’re not going to play him for a little while.”
Mar 2, 2015, 11:33 AM EST
Howard Johnson is right!
Mar 2, 2015, 11:19 AM EST
Detroit owes him $28 million per season through 2019.
Mar 2, 2015, 11:09 AM EST
It happened to Wynton Bernard anyway.
Mar 2, 2015, 10:47 AM EST
Since shifting to the bullpen full time in 2011 the Minnesota native has a 2.74 ERA and 286/63 K/BB ratio in 256 innings.
Mar 2, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
Axford had a 3.92 ERA and 63/36 K/BB ratio in 55 innings for the Indians last season.
Mar 2, 2015, 10:03 AM EST
At least one columnist thinks this is a big problem. Is it?
Mar 2, 2015, 9:15 AM EST
Patrick Dubuque of The Hardball Times mounts an in-depth study of the Peanuts’ Gang’s manager.
Mar 2, 2015, 8:17 AM EST
The lives of a couple of “Moneyball” players serves as a jumping off point for a good Monday morning rant.
Mar 1, 2015, 10:25 PM EST
Though pitching prospect Carlos Rodon is taking over for Chris Sale, he likely isn’t pitching for an Opening Day role with the White Sox.
Mar 1, 2015, 9:20 PM EST
Yoenis Cespedes could see himself wearing a Tigers uniform for many years.
Mar 1, 2015, 8:15 PM EST
Bryce Harper wants to do more to help out on offense for the Nationals.
Mar 1, 2015, 7:10 PM EST
Yu Darvish was colorful in responding to critics who think he quit on the Rangers last year due to an elbow injury.
Mar 1, 2015, 6:05 PM EST
The Phillies kicked off the spring with a loss to a college team.
Mar 1, 2015, 3:24 PM EST
There’s been some talk that Angels right-hander Garrett Richards might be ready for the beginning of the 2015 regular season despite tearing the patellar tendon in his left knee last August. But manager Mike Scioscia put that to rest Sunday in camp …
Mar 1, 2015, 1:51 PM EST
MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro provides the visual evidence …
- Blue Jays sign Dayan Viciedo to a minor league deal 8
- Chris Sale will be sidelined for three weeks with foot fracture 11
- Aramis Ramirez says 2015 will be his last year 32
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 303
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Yankees don’t plan on having to pay A-Rod’s $30 million in home run milestone bonuses 51
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (303)
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training (114)
- Brian Sabean says that California taxes are a hindrance to the Giants signing free agents (102)