Mar 4, 2013, 1:24 PM EDT
So, get ready for a bit of a shocker. I was on a panel with Farhan Zaidi of the Oakland A’s. He’s a great guy. A’s general manager Billy Beane often calls him “Emotional Stat Guy,” which he says will be the name of his fantasy baseball team (though I personally think it would be a better band name.*) Zaidi is utterly brilliant — economics degree from MIT, Ph.D from Cal Berkeley in economics — and a lot of fun to talk with about baseball.
*Zaidi told a great story about his interview with Billy Beane, who he idolized. It was 2003, and he was doing some consulting and fantasy sports work — basically, he was overqualified for whatever he was doing. He heard about an Oakland opening. He fished out an old resume and, without really reviewing it, sent it off to Billy Beane. One thing he had forgotten was that in the personal section of the resume, he had mentioned that he liked Britpop — you know, Suede, Sleeper, Oasis, a bunch of those Wonderwall bands that were cool in certain circles in the mid-to-late 1990s. Unfortunately, it was now 2003.
First thing Beane said to Zaidi was, “So, I understand you like Britpop.” Zaidi felt his face go white hot as he sunk into his chair. He started to hem and haw about how he had not updated his resume in a while and that, you know, er, well, it’s just kind of …
At which point, Billy Beane said: “I am the biggest Oasis fan.”
How that scene was left out of Moneyball, I’ll never know.
So before the panel began, we were talking about all sorts of things, when the 2012 American League MVP argument came up. Yes, we’re still talking about it. In very general terms, the argument seemed to split baseball fans between those who embrace the new baseball metrics and those who do not.
That’s a sweeping generalization and does not tell the full story — there were brilliant mathematicians in the Cabrera camp and staunch traditionalists in the Trout camp. But in general terms, the traditional statistics (Triple Crown!) and general principles pointed to Cabrera. And the advanced statistics seemed to show that Trout wasn’t just better than Cabrera but markedly better.
Baseball Reference WAR
Trout: 10.7 WAR
Cabrera: 6.9 WAR
Trout: 10.0 WAR
Cabrera: 7.1 WAR
That isn’t all that close. Basically WAR — and some other advances metrics — showed that whatever advantages Cabrera had in terms of power and batting average and timely hitting were swamped by Trout’s advantages as a fielder, base runner and player who gets on base. The argument made sense to many of us who champion the advanced statistics and their power to get closer to a player’s true value.
The Cabrera arguments, for the most part, were more about gut instinct, intangibles and the power of old statistics. Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Cabrera hit better down the stretch. Cabrera’s team made the playoffs. These arguments made sense to many baseball fans.
The two sides basically talked around each other for months. The gut arguments meant nothing at all to the sabermetric people, who feel like those gut arguments are shallow and often wildly off. The sabermetric arguments meant nothing at all to the people who do not trust a lot of these new statistics and feel like they are draining the fun out of the game. Back and forth it went, but neither side seemed to move any closer together.
Zaidi and I were talking about this when he told me something that I found utterly staggering. He said that Oakland’s objective model for measuring a player’s value — remember now, we are talking about the Oakland A’s, the Moneyball people, Jonah Hill and so on — found that Miguel Cabrera, NOT Mike Trout, was more valuable in 2012.
Well, that’s not exactly right. He was quick to say that the difference between the two was so slight as to be almost invisible — they were, for an intents and purposes, in a virtual tie. But their system did have Cabrera ahead by the tiniest of margins.
I thought that was a pretty big deal. I know last year, a lot of people were spending a lot of energy trying to find a convincing statistical model that showed Cabrera was better than Trout. If there was one, I didn’t see it. Now, it turns out that Oakland (Oakland!) has such a statistical model.
We did not have time to get into details — and Zaidi might not have done that anyway since the A’s model for measuring players is proprietary — but I think the point comes through. Statistics are tools. People use tools differently. People see the world differently. Give someone a pen and paper, she or he might sketch out a breathtaking mathematical formula … or scribble a prescription … or write down the amazing story of a young boy who has discovered he is a wizard … or a sketch of a flying car … or draw a Calvin and Hobbes panel … or a million other things.
Give a lot of different smart people the Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout data, you should get different ways of using that data. And you just might get different answers. It’s an important thing to remember, I think.
My sense, based on my reading of the numbers, Trout was better than Cabrera. I also readily concede Zaidi and the people in the Oakland front office are a lot smarter than I am.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:58 AM EDT
Yet another protested game in a week full of protests. This one isn’t going anywhere, though.
Aug 28, 2014, 11:02 PM EDT
Herrera, who was acquired from the Pirates in the Marlon Byrd deal last August, was batting .340/.406/.560 with 10 homers and 48 RBI over 61 games in Double-A this season.
Aug 28, 2014, 10:21 PM EDT
Outman had a 3.28 ERA and 24/16 K/BB ratio over 24 2/3 innings with the Indians this season.
Aug 28, 2014, 9:42 PM EDT
Every time Alex Gordon steps to the plate at Kauffman Stadium these days, fans chant, “M-V-P, M-V-P,” which is fascinating on so many levels.
Aug 28, 2014, 8:57 PM EDT
Vic Black has emerged as an effective late-inning bridge for the Mets this season, but now he’s headed to the 15-day disabled list with a herniated disk in his neck.
Aug 28, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The expectation is that Castillo will get some major league experience in September.
Aug 28, 2014, 7:09 PM EDT
Gomes suffered the concussion last Thursday when he was hit in the catcher’s mask by a deflected ball.
Aug 28, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
The struggling Wright hasn’t played since leaving Sunday’s game with neck spasms.
Aug 28, 2014, 5:47 PM EDT
Nolan Reimold has been claimed off waivers for the second time in a month, going from the Orioles to the Blue Jays and now to the Diamondbacks.
Aug 28, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
This is just sad.
Aug 28, 2014, 5:01 PM EDT
It’s five o’clock. Let’s end the work day with a big bunch of arguing, ok?
Aug 28, 2014, 4:52 PM EDT
There was no perfect game involved and in fact the 46 batters stretched over the course of eight appearances. Mark Buehrle held the previous record of 45 back in 2009.
Aug 28, 2014, 3:43 PM EDT
It’s not been a good week for Phillies brass.
Aug 28, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
Soria made just six appearances for the Tigers after being acquired from the Rangers in July.
Aug 28, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Not many rookies in recent MLB history have done as much running as The Fastest Man In Baseball.
Aug 28, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
Umpire to Perez: “You smell good, Salvy!” I am not making that up.
Aug 28, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
With a load of great hitting prospects and the dough to go get pitching, things may soon be looking up on the north side of Chicago
Aug 28, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Sorry. There’s no joke there. Just a cool picture. Including Vedder with a sweet 70s-80s Tigers road uni.
Aug 28, 2014, 12:52 PM EDT
Last night after the Brewers lost to the Padres in extra innings manager Ron Roenicke tore into home plate umpire Mark Ripperger, who ejected Roenicke from the game in the ninth inning.
Aug 28, 2014, 12:16 PM EDT
Four players (Cole Hamels, Domonic Brown, David Buchanan, and Kyle Kendrick) have publicly criticized and/or disrespected Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg this month, but the rookie skipper insists it’s “not a big deal.”
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