Mar 4, 2013, 1:24 PM EDT
So, get ready for a bit of a shocker. I was on a panel with Farhan Zaidi of the Oakland A’s. He’s a great guy. A’s general manager Billy Beane often calls him “Emotional Stat Guy,” which he says will be the name of his fantasy baseball team (though I personally think it would be a better band name.*) Zaidi is utterly brilliant — economics degree from MIT, Ph.D from Cal Berkeley in economics — and a lot of fun to talk with about baseball.
*Zaidi told a great story about his interview with Billy Beane, who he idolized. It was 2003, and he was doing some consulting and fantasy sports work — basically, he was overqualified for whatever he was doing. He heard about an Oakland opening. He fished out an old resume and, without really reviewing it, sent it off to Billy Beane. One thing he had forgotten was that in the personal section of the resume, he had mentioned that he liked Britpop — you know, Suede, Sleeper, Oasis, a bunch of those Wonderwall bands that were cool in certain circles in the mid-to-late 1990s. Unfortunately, it was now 2003.
First thing Beane said to Zaidi was, “So, I understand you like Britpop.” Zaidi felt his face go white hot as he sunk into his chair. He started to hem and haw about how he had not updated his resume in a while and that, you know, er, well, it’s just kind of …
At which point, Billy Beane said: “I am the biggest Oasis fan.”
How that scene was left out of Moneyball, I’ll never know.
So before the panel began, we were talking about all sorts of things, when the 2012 American League MVP argument came up. Yes, we’re still talking about it. In very general terms, the argument seemed to split baseball fans between those who embrace the new baseball metrics and those who do not.
That’s a sweeping generalization and does not tell the full story — there were brilliant mathematicians in the Cabrera camp and staunch traditionalists in the Trout camp. But in general terms, the traditional statistics (Triple Crown!) and general principles pointed to Cabrera. And the advanced statistics seemed to show that Trout wasn’t just better than Cabrera but markedly better.
Baseball Reference WAR
Trout: 10.7 WAR
Cabrera: 6.9 WAR
Trout: 10.0 WAR
Cabrera: 7.1 WAR
That isn’t all that close. Basically WAR — and some other advances metrics — showed that whatever advantages Cabrera had in terms of power and batting average and timely hitting were swamped by Trout’s advantages as a fielder, base runner and player who gets on base. The argument made sense to many of us who champion the advanced statistics and their power to get closer to a player’s true value.
The Cabrera arguments, for the most part, were more about gut instinct, intangibles and the power of old statistics. Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Cabrera hit better down the stretch. Cabrera’s team made the playoffs. These arguments made sense to many baseball fans.
The two sides basically talked around each other for months. The gut arguments meant nothing at all to the sabermetric people, who feel like those gut arguments are shallow and often wildly off. The sabermetric arguments meant nothing at all to the people who do not trust a lot of these new statistics and feel like they are draining the fun out of the game. Back and forth it went, but neither side seemed to move any closer together.
Zaidi and I were talking about this when he told me something that I found utterly staggering. He said that Oakland’s objective model for measuring a player’s value — remember now, we are talking about the Oakland A’s, the Moneyball people, Jonah Hill and so on — found that Miguel Cabrera, NOT Mike Trout, was more valuable in 2012.
Well, that’s not exactly right. He was quick to say that the difference between the two was so slight as to be almost invisible — they were, for an intents and purposes, in a virtual tie. But their system did have Cabrera ahead by the tiniest of margins.
I thought that was a pretty big deal. I know last year, a lot of people were spending a lot of energy trying to find a convincing statistical model that showed Cabrera was better than Trout. If there was one, I didn’t see it. Now, it turns out that Oakland (Oakland!) has such a statistical model.
We did not have time to get into details — and Zaidi might not have done that anyway since the A’s model for measuring players is proprietary — but I think the point comes through. Statistics are tools. People use tools differently. People see the world differently. Give someone a pen and paper, she or he might sketch out a breathtaking mathematical formula … or scribble a prescription … or write down the amazing story of a young boy who has discovered he is a wizard … or a sketch of a flying car … or draw a Calvin and Hobbes panel … or a million other things.
Give a lot of different smart people the Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout data, you should get different ways of using that data. And you just might get different answers. It’s an important thing to remember, I think.
My sense, based on my reading of the numbers, Trout was better than Cabrera. I also readily concede Zaidi and the people in the Oakland front office are a lot smarter than I am.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:51 AM EDT
Ruggiano will provide some depth with Yasiel Puig and Enrique Hernandez on the disabled list.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:37 AM EDT
The Giants made a last-minute deal before the waiver trade deadline expired, picking up outfielder Alejandro De Aza from the Red Sox.
Aug 31, 2015, 11:35 PM EDT
Miller could use a little bit of luck these days.
Aug 31, 2015, 10:12 PM EDT
Olt was designated for assignment after the Cubs acquired Austin Jackson from the Mariners.
Aug 31, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Enrique Hernandez has begun to take away playing time from the struggling Joc Pederson in recent days, but now the Dodgers will have to make due without him for a while.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:43 PM EDT
Gomes, 34, is batting .221/.325/.364 with seven home runs and 22 RBI over 83 games this season.
Aug 31, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
CC Sabathia was shut down earlier this month due to an arthritic condition in his right knee.
Aug 31, 2015, 7:53 PM EDT
Kiermaier makes a leaping catch to rob Manny Machado of a home run.
Aug 31, 2015, 7:04 PM EDT
Marco Gonzales is expected to start in his place Tuesday.
Aug 31, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
De Aza is batting .292 with 18 extra-base hits (including four home runs), 25 RBI, and an .831 OPS in 60 games since joining the Red Sox in June.
Aug 31, 2015, 6:21 PM EDT
Jackson, an impending free agent, is batting .272/.312/.387 with eight home runs, 38 RBI, and 15 stolen bases over 107 games this season.
Aug 31, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
The Astros will have their young phenom back at shortstop tonight against the Mariners.
Aug 31, 2015, 5:04 PM EDT
Color me dubious.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
He hasn’t played since last Wednesday and now will miss at least the next three games.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
He was on the hot seat back in June. What a difference a couple of months make.
Aug 31, 2015, 3:51 PM EDT
Aug 31, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Ramirez has a nagging shoulder injury.
Aug 31, 2015, 3:10 PM EDT
Actually, the fastest wiener is boring. You want to see the wiener which runs free.
Aug 31, 2015, 1:13 PM EDT
And Buck Showalter is uniquely unimpressed with Fenway Parks dimensions.
Aug 31, 2015, 12:28 PM EDT
Thats one way to do it. Not a way likely to bring success, but certainly one way to do it.
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