Skip to content

Revisiting Trout vs. Cabrera MVP debate — with a twist

Mar 4, 2013, 1:24 PM EDT

g-sport-121116-troutcabrera.nbcsports-story-612 Reuters

So, get ready for a bit of a shocker. I was on a panel with Farhan Zaidi of the Oakland A’s. He’s a great guy. A’s general manager Billy Beane often calls him “Emotional Stat Guy,” which he says will be the name of his fantasy baseball team (though I personally think it would be a better band name.*) Zaidi is utterly brilliant — economics degree from MIT, Ph.D from Cal Berkeley in economics — and a lot of fun to talk with about baseball.

*Zaidi told a great story about his interview with Billy Beane, who he idolized. It was 2003, and he was doing some consulting and fantasy sports work — basically, he was overqualified for whatever he was doing. He heard about an Oakland opening. He fished out an old resume and, without really reviewing it, sent it off to Billy Beane. One thing he had forgotten was that in the personal section of the resume, he had mentioned that he liked Britpop — you know, Suede, Sleeper, Oasis, a bunch of those Wonderwall bands that were cool in certain circles in the mid-to-late 1990s. Unfortunately, it was now 2003.

First thing Beane said to Zaidi was, “So, I understand you like Britpop.” Zaidi felt his face go white hot as he sunk into his chair. He started to hem and haw about how he had not updated his resume in a while and that, you know, er, well, it’s just kind of …

At which point, Billy Beane said: “I am the biggest Oasis fan.”

How that scene was left out of Moneyball, I’ll never know.

So before the panel began, we were talking about all sorts of things, when the 2012 American League MVP argument came up. Yes, we’re still talking about it. In very general terms, the argument seemed to split baseball fans between those who embrace the new baseball metrics and those who do not.

That’s a sweeping generalization and does not tell the full story — there were brilliant mathematicians in the Cabrera camp and staunch traditionalists in the Trout camp. But in general terms, the traditional statistics (Triple Crown!) and general principles pointed to Cabrera. And the advanced statistics seemed to show that Trout wasn’t just better than Cabrera but markedly better.

Baseball Reference WAR

Trout: 10.7 WAR
Cabrera: 6.9 WAR

Fangraphs WAR

Trout: 10.0 WAR
Cabrera: 7.1 WAR

That isn’t all that close. Basically WAR — and some other advances metrics — showed that whatever advantages Cabrera had in terms of power and batting average and timely hitting were swamped by Trout’s advantages as a fielder, base runner and player who gets on base. The argument made sense to many of us who champion the advanced statistics and their power to get closer to a player’s true value.

The Cabrera arguments, for the most part, were more about gut instinct, intangibles and the power of old statistics. Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Cabrera hit better down the stretch. Cabrera’s team made the playoffs. These arguments made sense to many baseball fans.

The two sides basically talked around each other for months. The gut arguments meant nothing at all to the sabermetric people, who feel like those gut arguments are shallow and often wildly off. The sabermetric arguments meant nothing at all to the people who do not trust a lot of these new statistics and feel like they are draining the fun out of the game. Back and forth it went, but neither side seemed to move any closer together.

Zaidi and I were talking about this when he told me something that I found utterly staggering. He said that Oakland’s objective model for measuring a player’s value — remember now, we are talking about the Oakland A’s, the Moneyball people, Jonah Hill and so on — found that Miguel Cabrera, NOT Mike Trout, was more valuable in 2012.

More from Sloan: Finding peace with WAR

Well, that’s not exactly right. He was quick to say that the difference between the two was so slight as to be almost invisible — they were, for an intents and purposes, in a virtual tie. But their system did have Cabrera ahead by the tiniest of margins.

I thought that was a pretty big deal. I know last year, a lot of people were spending a lot of energy trying to find a convincing statistical model that showed Cabrera was better than Trout. If there was one, I didn’t see it. Now, it turns out that Oakland (Oakland!) has such a statistical model.

We did not have time to get into details — and Zaidi might not have done that anyway since the A’s model for measuring players is proprietary — but I think the point comes through. Statistics are tools. People use tools differently. People see the world differently. Give someone a pen and paper, she or he might sketch out a breathtaking mathematical formula … or scribble a prescription … or write down the amazing story of a young boy who has discovered he is a wizard … or a sketch of a flying car … or draw a Calvin and Hobbes panel  … or a million other things.

Give a lot of different smart people the Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout data, you should get different ways of using that data. And you just might get different answers. It’s an important thing to remember, I think.

My sense, based on my reading of the numbers, Trout was better than Cabrera. I also readily concede Zaidi and the people in the Oakland front office are a lot smarter than I am.

Latest Posts
  1. Anibal Sanchez likely to join Tigers’ bullpen this week

    Sep 21, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT

    anibal sanchez getty Getty Images

    Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez suffered a strained pectoral muscle on August 8 and then reaggravated it August 25. But he’s making swift progress now …

  2. Rangers officially shut down Alex Rios

    Sep 21, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT

    alex rios getty Getty Images

    Rangers outfielder Alex Rios hasn’t appeared in a game since September 4 due to a nagging right thumb injury, and he’s not going to be rushed back for the final week.

  3. Dallas Keuchel is done for the season

    Sep 21, 2014, 1:08 PM EDT

    dallas keuchel getty Getty Images

    Astros pitching coach Brent Strom announced Sunday that ace left-hander Dallas Keuchel won’t make another start this season.

  4. Carlos Beltran may not play again this year

    Sep 21, 2014, 12:20 PM EDT

    Carlos Beltran Getty Getty Images

    It’s been a lost season for the Yankees’ outfielder.

  5. Must-click link: Tommy Harper and the Red Sox’ racist past

    Sep 21, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT

    red sox logo

    A far more recent past than most people will admit.

  6. Ryan Zimmerman hits an RBI triple in his return to the Nationals lineup

    Sep 21, 2014, 11:06 AM EDT

    Ryan Zimmerman AP AP

    His presence will give the Nats a ton of flexibility down the stretch.

  7. Video: Yasiel Puig made a spectacular diving catch

    Sep 21, 2014, 10:40 AM EDT

    Puig Dive

    Like we always say: he giveth and he taketh away. Yesterday he gaveth.

  8. Matt Garza: if you think I was trying to hit McCutchen, “you’re just an idiot”

    Sep 21, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT

    Matt Garza AP

    He said it rather than tweeted it. Which is sad, because I had good money on it coming out “your just an idiot” if he had tweeted it.

  9. The Padres are going to keep Bud Black as their manager for 2015

    Sep 21, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT

    Bud Black Getty Getty Images

    Bud Black will be back for year nine at the helm of the Padres.

  10. Settling the Score: Saturday’s results

    Sep 21, 2014, 8:04 AM EDT

    Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 8.03.08 AM AP

    The Royals are not doing too well in the biggest series to hit Kansas City in 29 years.

  11. Video: Umpires review, uphold Nick Franklin homer that hit the “C” ring at Tropicana Field

    Sep 20, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT

    Nick Franklin Nick Franklin

    Nick Franklin hit the “C” ring catwalk at Tropicana Field with a deep fly ball to right field, which was initially ruled a home run. Replay review confirmed the ruling.

  12. Scrambling Dodgers to give Jamey Wright a start on Sunday

    Sep 20, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT

    Jamey Wright Jamey Wright

    The pitching-light Dodgers will have Jamey Wright make his second start in the last seven years on Sunday against the Cubs.

  13. Jerome Williams becomes first to beat one opponent with three different teams in the same season

    Sep 20, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT

    Jerome Williams Jerome Williams

    Jerome Williams continued to pitch well for the Phillies, even notching a baseball first in the process of defeating the Athletics on Saturday.

  14. Matt Garza ejected after hitting Andrew McCutchen a second time

    Sep 20, 2014, 9:19 PM EDT

    Matt Garza Matt Garza

    Matt Garza doesn’t hit many batters, but the right-hander managed to hit Andrew McCutchen twice in his start on Saturday.

  15. Mark Teixeira left Saturday’s game with soreness in his right wrist

    Sep 20, 2014, 8:35 PM EDT

    Mark Teixeira Mark Teixeira

    Mark Teixeira’s wrist injury flared up again, forcing him out of Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays in the fifth inning.

  16. Josh Hamilton has needed 12 cortisone injections in the last two weeks

    Sep 20, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT

    Josh Hamilton Josh Hamilton

    Josh Hamilton has received a lot of pain-killing injections lately, as the veteran has battled shoulder and rib cage problems over the last two weeks.

  17. Jason Kipnis considered day-to-day with hamstring issue

    Sep 20, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT

    Jason Kipnis Getty Images

    Jason Kipnis is listed as day-to-day with a sore right hamstring.

  18. Glen Perkins has learned his lesson about pitching through an injury

    Sep 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT

    Glen Perkins Glen Perkins

    Glen Perkins tried to tough out an injury and it didn’t go so well, but he seems to have learned his lesson.

  19. Tigers hang on for second straight win against Royals

    Sep 20, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT

    Hunter AP AP

    This was a day of missed opportunities for the Royals.

  20. Nationals activate Ryan Zimmerman from the disabled list

    Sep 20, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT

    Ryan Zimmerman AP AP

    Zimmerman has been sidelined since July 22 due to a Grade 3 strain of his right hamstring.

Featured video

Patience finally paying off for Royals fans
Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. R. Castillo (2977)
  2. D. Ortiz (2227)
  3. J. Hamilton (2192)
  4. N. Arenado (2155)
  5. C. Kershaw (2112)
  1. G. Stanton (2095)
  2. M. Trout (1998)
  3. A. Pujols (1987)
  4. A. Rizzo (1979)
  5. A. Pagan (1966)