Mar 12, 2013, 3:31 PM EST
We live in a world where complex statistical models and sophisticated computer programs which internalize and process every conceivable baseball metric are openly mocked when they make predictions yet we are expected to take as gospel those predictions of 50 year-old baseball writers who think pleated Dockers are still in fashion and haven’t bought an album since Bruce dropped “Tunnel of Love.”
In light of that, I have no problem linking to a thing about a computer model from something called PredictionMachine.com which has simulated the 2013 baseball season 50,000 times:
PredictionMachine.com has already played the 2013 MLB season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The Los Angeles Angels win the World Series a league-high 12% of the time (6,153 of 50,000 times to be exact). The Detroit Tigers (10%), Washington Nationals (10%), Cincinnati Reds (9%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8%), Tampa Bay Rays (7%) and San Francisco Giants(7%) follow the Angels in championship likelihood. In the most open season we have ever seen at this point, no team has a greater than one-in-eight chance of winning it all and a total of 12 teams have a better than one-in-25 chance of winning the championship.
And that set of predictions may all be completely wrong. I just don’t expect them to be any more wrong than those of some scribe who pounded out his predictions on a 7 year-old Packard-Bell with his email username and password taped on little slips of paper above his keyboard in between complaining about TSA agents and his lack of proximity to an In-n-Out Burger, all the while telling me that he knows more about baseball than I do because he went to journalism school.
So, you go, Prediction Machine. I for one hail our new machine overlords.
- Joe Posnanski: Remembering ‘Mr. Cub,’ Ernie Banks 12
- What they’re saying about the passing of Cubs legend Ernie Banks 7
- Alex Rodriguez recently met with incoming MLB commissioner Rob Manfred 15
- Ernie Banks, one of baseball’s greatest players and greatest ambassadors has died at age 83 75
- Sean Doolittle has a “slight” rotator cuff tear, won’t be ready for Opening Day 4
- Ryan Vogelsong re-signs with Giants after flirting with Astros 17
- Phillies and Brewers moving closer to Jonathan Papelbon trade 52
- Pete Rose will be at the All-Star Game in Cincinnati this year 29
- Bud Selig: The Greatest Commissioner in the History of Baseball (143)
- Max Scherzer’s seven-year deal with Nationals worth $210 million (119)
- Comments of the Day: some of you guys aren’t big Bud Selig fans (77)
- Ernie Banks, one of baseball’s greatest players and greatest ambassadors has died at age 83 (75)