There are always the exceptions to the rule, such as John Smoltz, but a pitcher that throws hard needs to learn how to pace themselves. In the Reds case though, they won 96 games last year with Chapman as their closer. But even he had his problems in the middle of the season, with his location. You can throw 97 MPH, but if you can’t locate it, it means nothing. If he starts, he will have more problems, and don’t give me “He started in the minors” because that is lazy. We all know hitters in the minors tend to go after lower pitches, which gives them an easier out. This is the big leagues, and if he’s struggling in spring training with his command, or if anyone has doubts, that should be a sign.

The missing point here is that most of these guys were starters all through their lives until their major league team needed a relief pitcher more than a starter and also didn’t want to give the guy 200 IP at such a young age. These are not guys that never started before….and guys that make these kinds of moves don’t have arm problems any more often than guys that stay in the same role do.

People acting like this type of move in and of itself leads to arm problems have selective memories. Pitching is what leads to arm problems, not the changing of roles….plenty of guys that stay in the same role develop arm problems, and they do it at the same rate as guys that change roles based on team needs.

I’m pretty sure giving up 4 earned runs over 16 innings across 3 starts in your first exposure to the majors qualifies you as a potentially solid starter.

To never start a game after that, because you are pinched into the bullpen out of absolute necessity, is crazy.

Thats not accurate. They also would lose value if the guy he replaces in the rotation produces at the same level as Chapman as a starter but is not a good reliever . Meaning all they would get out of the swap would be a much worse bull pen. And yea you could say the guy he replaces in the rotation doesnt have to be Chapman’s replacement in the bullpen. And thats true but they would have to go find someone to play in the bullpen. And that guy would have to be at least as good as Chapman as a reliever for the Reds to break even in value. They certainly dont have that guy in their system. So they would have to spend a boatload of money to sign, or a boatload of picks to acquire a guy like that. While still having the guy under contract that Chapman replaced doing nothing but collecting a check. Doing all that just to get Chapman in the rotation definitely wouldnt be good value to the Reds.

The only way the Reds get value out of moving Chapman to the rotation is if hes a strong upgrade over someone they have starting now. Or if they have someone under team control already that could step into his bullpen spot and be only a moderate downgrade then they could get away with him being only a moderate upgrade in the rotation.

He’s had 3 starts at the major league level and 4 starts at AAA.

He moved to closer out of necessity, but like I said…they could have found someone else who maybe wasn’t AS good a closer but a great starter is still more valuable.

Whether or not Jon would have been a sub-3 ERA starter, I don’t know….no one does because he was never given the chance (although as a starter he only posted an ERA above 3.00 once in the majors or minors and it was his first season in the minors).

Long term, one can’t expect him to be quite that dominant every season. If he regresses to merely very good, a very good season from a closer is worth about the same as an average season from a starter.

I know it’s not a good measure, but still….apples to different kind of apples….I will take a 15-20 game winner over a 35-40 save closer any day.

Good closers are easier to find/develop than really good pitchers.

The Red Sox screwed up by not making a starter out of Jon.