This is the converse of the situation where they kill free agency and they *don’t* set up academies, or too few. Then we get an even worse situation than Puerto Rico where the local schools weren’t able to support the number of teen ballplayers to sustain the game above age 16.

“…(W)hen you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?” Sherlock Holmes

There must be a reason for MLB to take this stance, something we just don’t see yet. It’s a business, you know they have their reasons. Perhaps this is a feint to take our attention away from something else. Perhaps not. I refuse to believe it is just poor judgment on its own, but then again I’ve lived through the 60s and more conspiracy theories than you can shake a stick at.

Year Avg Incr
Pre 2 .496
Pre 3 .497 0%
Arb 1 1.7 242%
Arb 2 2.7 59%
Arb 3 3.9 44%
Arb 4 5.0 28%

The arbitration averages use a three year average and don’t count multi-year deals. The percentage increases have stayed stable over the last few years, within a few percentage points, as the minimum salary has increased. This means all of the arbitration average salaries have increased along with the minimum salary. So significantly raising the minimum salary significantly raises the entire arbitration salary structure. Also, you can see why teams wish to avoid Super 2 players: It saves them $4.5M.

You may still have a hardcore set of cellar dweller teams now, but it is nothing compared to the days when the top teams could pluck the top prospects at will. You think Stephen Strasburg would have gone to the Nat’s 5 years ago without a draft? And if the answer is no, why would baseball be better in that system?

Instead of the Yankees, Dodgers, or Red Sox outbidding everybody for the best international talent

The last two “big” international free agent signings by the Yankees were Jose Contreras and Kei Igawa. One spent only 71.2IP of his 666.2 career IP in the majors, and the other was traded away two years after his signing. The last big FA signing by the Sox was a pitcher who can’t even make the ML roster of a team that finished 68-94 last year.

The Dodgers big FA splash in international waters was Hyun-Jin Ryu and Yasiel Puig. Keith Law had this to say about the two of them:

Based on this look, and a scout’s comment to me on Wednesday that Ryu was exactly the same guy in his previous outing, I don’t see more than a fringy fourth starter here. Lefties with 45 fastballs can succeed in the majors if they have outstanding command and control, which Ryu didn’t show, and if they’ve got a knockout breaking ball to neutralize lefties, which Ryu didn’t have in this outing. The changeup is legit, good enough that he’ll miss some bats, but I worry about him being homer-prone or even just too contact-prone on the other stuff, especially the fastball, especially once the league gets a few looks at his delivery.

Yasiel Puig (Arizona) Is it because you think i’m 36? You know Cuba has a great medical system and health records are much more reliable than in the other Caribbean countries. You just hate admitting you’re wrong.

Klaw (12:33 PM) No, that’s not it at all – in fact, I have specifically stated that I won’t consider unfounded age speculation, mine or my own, when ranking a player. It would be incredibly unfair to the player and to the readers. It’s because I don’t see a huge ceiling – I see an average regular, maybe an above-average one, but in an outfield corner, with a body that isn’t likely to mature well. Again, I’m wrong all the time. If I couldn’t admit that, I’d need a new line of work.

So we’ve got one team that banished a pitcher to the minors after giving him a $32M contract, that same team traded it’s big international signing after two years to the White Sox, a pitcher who can’t make the roster of one of the worst teams in the AL, a “fringy” 4th starter and a corner OF whose body won’t mature well.

Tell me again why you don’t want these teams bidding on these players? Especially when they didn’t win contracts for the good ones, like Darvish or Chapman for example?

Stupid ideas. TV dollars have completely shifted this sport, and the draft allows teams without big budgets to win if they can scout well.

This kind of thing happens pretty frequently among big businesses.