Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
May 27, 2015, 7:21 AM EDT
Four walkoff wins last night.
May 26, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took what might be the final step before a rehab assignment Tuesday afternoon at Oakland’s O.Co Coliseum …
May 26, 2015, 10:32 PM EDT
Brewers shortstop Jean Segura appeared to be in for an extended absence when he landed on the disabled list May 14 with a fracture in the pinkie on his throwing hand …
May 26, 2015, 9:56 PM EDT
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says the trade is done and is only awaiting approval from the commissioner’s office.
May 26, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
Check out this laser shot that Hunter Pence crushed Tuesday night at Milwaukee’s Miller Park …
May 26, 2015, 9:21 PM EDT
Great news on rehabbing ace Jose Fernandez.
May 26, 2015, 8:13 PM EDT
This wasn’t really a great catch by Josh Harrison because he bungled the route, but it did look cool …
May 26, 2015, 7:49 PM EDT
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com Monday that he is tired of fans who “bitch and complain” about the moves made by his front office. He went on an apology tour for those comments Tuesday …
May 26, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Mets ace Matt Harvey had the worst start of his young major league career on Saturday against the Pirates, surrendering seven runs in four innings, and manager Terry Collins indicated a few days later that Harvey is fighting through a period of “dead arm.”
May 26, 2015, 6:12 PM EDT
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips missed back-to-back games earlier this month after being diagnosed with a painful case of turf toe in his left foot, and now the problem has resurfaced.
May 26, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Lucroy finished fourth in the MVP voting last season.
May 26, 2015, 4:55 PM EDT
Charter Communications customers in Glendale, Burbank, Malibu and Long Beach will be getting the Dodgers’ network within the next few weeks.
May 26, 2015, 4:37 PM EDT
McGehee and his $4.8 million salary predictably cleared waivers.
May 26, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Five starting positions out of nine slots currently belong to Royals players.
May 26, 2015, 2:48 PM EDT
Dan Jennings’ managerial career is off to an interesting start.
May 26, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Good news for the Reds’ biggest trade chit — er, I mean, for their ace.
May 26, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
In other news, why do we take pitchers at their word when they claim that they’re not really trying to get something extra on the ball?
May 26, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
Signed to a two-year, $16 million deal this offseason, Morse has hit just .211 with two homers and a .557 OPS in 37 games.
May 26, 2015, 1:28 PM EDT
Bundy was scratched from his scheduled start at Double-A.
May 26, 2015, 1:14 PM EDT
Well, that was fun while it lasted at least.
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 0
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 8
- Ruben Amaro apologizes for comments about fans, admits he may have been late on rebuild 22
- Jonathan Lucroy expected to rejoin the Brewers on Monday 0
- More drama in Miami: Marlins demote third base coach Brett Butler after “confusion” over signs 34
- Ruben Amaro dismisses fans who “bitch and complain” about the Phillies’ moves 70
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 67
- Reds finally shut down Devin Mesoraco seven weeks after hip injury, surgery may be needed 7
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (132)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (96)