Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
Aug 29, 2015, 1:13 PM EDT
Mookie Betts and Mookie Wilson will meet Saturday afternoon at Citi Field.
Aug 29, 2015, 12:32 PM EDT
Indians manager Terry Francona has the ability to opt out of his contract if team president Mark Shapiro or general manager Chris Antonetti were to leave the organization.
Aug 29, 2015, 11:36 AM EDT
Morneau has been out since May 13 with a concussion symptoms and a cervical neck strain.
Aug 29, 2015, 10:45 AM EDT
The catwalk at Tropicana Field strikes again. After it robbed Twins rookie Miguel Sano of a home run on Thursday night, it fooled Rays outfield Kevin Kiermaier on this two-run homer from Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales last night.
Aug 29, 2015, 10:06 AM EDT
Teixeira fouled a ball of his right leg on August 17 and hasn’t seen much in the way of improvement.
Aug 29, 2015, 9:35 AM EDT
With the Braves getting blown out by the Yankees last night, outfielder Jonny Gomes got an opportunity to pitch the top of the ninth inning. As you might expect, it was pretty entertaining.
Aug 29, 2015, 8:55 AM EDT
A quick recap from a busy Friday around MLB, including a dominant outing from Cole Hamels.
Aug 28, 2015, 11:40 PM EDT
Ike Davis recently underwent hip surgery, but is expected to be ready to participate in spring training next year.
Aug 28, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Chris Capuano has had an interesting season. In particular, he’s had a busy August.
Aug 28, 2015, 10:37 PM EDT
Baseball fans rejoice: Vin Scully will return to call Dodgers games in 2016.
Aug 28, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s contract expires after the season. There’s a chance the Phillies decide to bring him back for the 2016 season.
Aug 28, 2015, 9:42 PM EDT
The Blue Jays added some depth on Friday, claiming 1B/OF Danny Dorn off waivers from the Diamondbacks.
Aug 28, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
The Nationals weren’t happy with how the Jayson Werth bobblehead looked, so they’ll have a new one made and give it away to fans during the off-season.
Aug 28, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Chris Heston will return to the Giants’ rotation to replace the injured Matt Cain on Sunday.
Aug 28, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Yasiel Puig is back on the disabled list with his second hamstring strain this season.
Aug 28, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
AL West teams, including the Athletics, get the short end of the scheduling stick again in 2016.
Aug 28, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
An unknown team claimed Padres closer Craig Kimbrel on revocable waivers.
Aug 28, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Will the Red Sox exercise his $13 million option for 2016?
Aug 28, 2015, 4:46 PM EDT
This is from an incident in June 2014
Aug 28, 2015, 2:20 PM EDT
An important manifesto from a woman who is both a serious baseball fan and who does not deny the bleeding obvious.
- Mark Teixeira says he’s having “serious pain” when he tries to run 5
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 19
- Vin Scully will return in 2016 for his 67th season of broadcasting 37
- The Athletics have a travel-heavy 2016 schedule and unsuccessfully tried to have it altered 10
- Mariners fire general manager Jack Zduriencik 71
- Pedro Martinez wonders if bad chemistry is the reason the Tigers and Mariners are out of contention 53
- Vote of non-confidence: Reds owner says manager Bryan Price won’t be fired before the season is over 23
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 87
- Sarah Palin sticks up for Curt Schilling, tells ESPN to “stick to sports” (262)
- Dan Patrick: When does ESPN cut ties with Curt Schilling? (200)
- Curt Schilling taken off of Little League World Series duty for making a really bad tweet (169)
- Curt Schilling taken off of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast this week (134)
- Phillies announcer calls Mets fans “obnoxious” (123)