Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
Jul 31, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
Wilmer Flores: your feel-good story of the year.
Jul 31, 2015, 11:20 PM EDT
The Orioles designated struggling Orioles pitcher Bud Norris for assignment to make room for new outfielder Gerardo Parra on Friday.
Jul 31, 2015, 10:52 PM EDT
Starling Marte’s defense prevented Mark Melancon from blowing a save and potentially taking a loss.
Jul 31, 2015, 10:35 PM EDT
The Angels lose C.J. Wilson to an injury but are expected to get Jered Weaver back.
Jul 31, 2015, 10:08 PM EDT
It don’t matter if he’s left or right.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:53 PM EDT
Madison Bumgarner was upset Delino DeShields was upset.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:35 PM EDT
The Giants placed Tim Hudson on the disabled list, which created room on the roster for incoming pitcher Mike Leake.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:55 PM EDT
A.J. Burnett hits the DL with an elbow issue. Recently-acquired pitcher J.A. Happ will take his spot in the rotation.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:28 PM EDT
Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart laughed when he recalled the Padres asking for Paul Goldschmidt in return in a potential trade involving Craig Kimbrel.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:49 PM EDT
Kendrys Morales is more nimble than we give him credit for being.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:20 PM EDT
Yankees pitching prospect Luis Severino will make his major league debut within the next week.
Jul 31, 2015, 6:14 PM EDT
Clayton Kershaw has been scratched from a start yet again due to a hip problem.
Jul 31, 2015, 5:37 PM EDT
Yes, I realize it’s silly to do this an hour after the trade deadline, as time is required to see how this stuff truly shakes out. But what is the Internet for if not kneejerk reactions?
Jul 31, 2015, 4:33 PM EDT
J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton, reunited.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
He was DFA’d by the Dodgers as soon as they got him but he may platoon at 1B for Pittsburgh.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:20 PM EDT
People thought they’d make four or five trades. They ended up doing nothing.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
We’re recapping all of the deals as they come down.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:11 PM EDT
Bullpen help for Chicago.
Jul 31, 2015, 3:59 PM EDT
The Mets add a big bat to their anemic offense. And they don’t have to part with Zack Wheeler to do it.
Jul 31, 2015, 3:12 PM EDT
Jones struggled in a part-time role for the Yankees.
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game 90
- The Winners and Losers at the Trade Deadline 63
- 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker 11
- Report: Yoenis Cespedes heading to the New York Mets 36
- The Blue Jays pick up Ben Revere from the Phillies 65
- Cubs trade for Dan Haren 28
- Cardinals add more bullpen help, get Jonathan Broxton from Brewers 13
- Orioles trade for Brewers outfielder Gerardo Parra 19
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (112)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (94)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (90)