Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
Aug 29, 2014, 9:10 PM EDT
Nelson Cruz, the major league leader in home runs with 34, is interested in signing a contract extension with the Orioles.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
A day after Bruce Chen allowed six runs in the 10th inning of the Royals’ loss to the Twins on Thursday, the Royals designated the lefty for assignment.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:22 PM EDT
The Mariners have ended Jesus Montero’s season so he can address his “non-baseball issues”, a day after he went after a scout who was heckling him.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
The Mets could be without Daniel Murphy for most or all of the rest of the season, as the second baseman deals with a strained right calf.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:25 PM EDT
Joey Votto hasn’t been progressing as well from his quad injury as the Reds would have liked.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:38 PM EDT
He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth against the Cubs.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Whether this will turn into a Michael Young situation or a Derek Jeter situation is an open question.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Sad news for a once-great reliever.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:42 PM EDT
No doctor appointments are scheduled as a result, but soreness is not great news.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:17 PM EDT
If you’re going to make the same arguments for him you did the past two years, you may want to re-think things.
Aug 29, 2014, 3:27 PM EDT
There can be only THREE!! True outcomes, that is.
Aug 29, 2014, 3:04 PM EDT
Which is the right thing to do.
Aug 29, 2014, 2:24 PM EDT
Never mind that the dude has only been legally allowed inside a bar for about two years.
Aug 29, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT
The plot thickens. And becomes creamier. And is spread nicely between some two thin, chocolate cakes.
Aug 29, 2014, 1:42 PM EDT
It’s a bit early for this, of course.
Aug 29, 2014, 12:26 PM EDT
Could one or both of them be gone before the 2015 season begins?
Aug 29, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
Afterwards, the pitching machine talked about wanting to work on his offspeed stuff because all big league hitters can turn on a fastball.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
An addendum to yesterday’s post.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:49 AM EDT
The AL it’s clear cut because there is a monster candidate. In the NL it’s because one guys is the least bad of many bad options.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:03 AM EDT
Commandment Number One of being a professional athlete: don’t let anyone know you’re not a fan of your team’s city.
- Mariners end Jesus Montero’s season 18
- Troy Tulowitzki says he’ll retire before he switches positions 20
- Mike Trout is the best MVP choice, but . . . 18
- Baseball is dying, you guys, because no one would recognize Mike Trout in a bar 65
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 75
- Alex Gordon and the M-V-P chants 42
- Could women play major league baseball? Sure. Right now, though, the deck is stacked against them. 217
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 63
- Could women play major league baseball? Sure. Right now, though, the deck is stacked against them. (217)
- Forgiveness for Pete Rose? Not in this lifetime (145)
- Albert Pujols plays the “you never played the game!” card (104)
- Great Moments in Drug Testing and Punishment: The NFL Edition (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (75)