Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:34 PM EDT
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman heard from a Rays-connected source Tuesday that the Rays are “talking and willing” to trade ace left-hander David Price and the Cardinals and Dodgers are known to have interest.
Jul 29, 2014, 8:41 PM EDT
The Cubs made the curious decision to option reliever Neil Ramirez to Triple-A Iowa on Saturday despite his 0.96 ERA in 28 innings, but that option has now been voided and Ramirez has been transferred to the 15-day major league disabled list with a sore triceps.
Jul 29, 2014, 7:58 PM EDT
MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports that right-hander Michael Pineda threw a successful simulated game on Tuesday afternoon in front of manager Joe Girardi and has been cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week.
Jul 29, 2014, 7:03 PM EDT
FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reported Monday that the Phillies have made ace left-hander Cole Hamels available ahead of Thursday’s July 31 trade deadline, but the asking price on him is apparently sky-high.
Jul 29, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera is back with the Padres for Tuesday’s series-opener against the Cardinals after missing nearly four weeks with a left hamstring strain.
Jul 29, 2014, 5:31 PM EDT
No ballplayer wants to fly to Birmingham, Alabama during the season for a very, very good reason.
Jul 29, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
A strained neck put Justin Morneau’s comeback season on hold, but the Rockies have activated the first baseman from the disabled list for tonight’s game against the Cubs.
Jul 29, 2014, 4:58 PM EDT
And Bud Selig’s years-long effort to manage a quiet resolution of it is apparently a failure.
Jul 29, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Maybe this happens all the time and we just don’t hear about it, but Red Sox manager John Farrell admitted just now that the team has Brandon Workman lined up to start Wednesday’s game in case scheduled starter Jon Lester is traded before then.
Jul 29, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT
In what could throw a wrench into the Phillies’ plans to trade Marlon Byrd before Thursday’s deadline, the 36-year-old outfielder is out of tonight’s lineup after fouling a ball off his foot yesterday.
Jul 29, 2014, 3:54 PM EDT
A big named ace is likely to change uniforms this week.
Jul 29, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
But . . . I was told Wahoo outrage was nothing but liberal white guilt . . .
Jul 29, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT
Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez’s throwing issues have gotten so bad–including an MLB-leading 21 of his 23 errors on throws–that Jenn Menendez of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports the team is starting to look into “the mental component to find the root of the problem.”
Jul 29, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
The Sox are in last place and are going nowhere. Time to deal starters?
Jul 29, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
He’s a braver man than I am. By that I mean Kershaw for going on Kimmel’s show.
Jul 29, 2014, 12:18 PM EDT
On the disabled list with a strained lat muscle, Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole tossed five shutout innings Monday in a minor-league rehab start at Triple-A.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
Brandon Morrow was one of the league’s best starters in 2012, but he’s been an injured mess since then, including a current disabled list stint for a torn tendon in his right index finger.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:42 AM EDT
Call me crazy, but I think Maddux, Glavine and Thomas woulda made the Hall of Fame even if Congress didn’t hold steroids hearings.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
“I just got sick and wasn’t sure why.”
Jul 29, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
As in: one side of two warring factions has agreed to a resolution. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango.
- Rays are “talking and willing” to trade ace lefty David Price; Cardinals and Dodgers interested 0
- Phillies wanted Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias from Dodgers for Cole Hamels 48
- Matt Cain is going to pay a visit to Dr. Andrews 3
- The Nationals and Orioles dispute over TV money is about to explode 74
- The Red Sox are expected to deal Jon Lester and the Pirates are a “dark horse” 33
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 48
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter passes Carl Yastrzemski for seventh on all-time hits list 68
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence 91
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (201)
- “Caucasians” t-shirts are hot sellers on Canadian Indian reservations (168)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (165)
- Must-click link: sexual depravity — and possibly rape — in the minor leagues (100)
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence (91)