Mar 21, 2013, 1:00 PM EST
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Houston Astros.
The Big Question: Will the Astros be historically bad?
Maybe this isn’t the biggest question facing the Astros this year, but it’s one that’s sort of been sticking with me for a couple of weeks as I’ve made the rounds on various radio shows previewing the 2013 season. Almost all of the hosts ask me how bad the Astros will be and almost all of them are assuming this is going to be some sort of 1962 Mets situation or something. I actually had one guy take the under on an over/under of 45 wins for them. Which seems kind of nuts.
Look, the Astros aren’t going to be good, I’ll agree with that. But we have to be realistic here and note that in the 162-game era, only two teams have failed to win 45 games: the 1962 Mets and the 2003 Tigers. Indeed, unless I’m overlooking someone, I do not believe any team has won fewer than 50 games in a full 162 game season apart from those two teams. Every season brings us some bad teams, but teams that putrid are few and far between. And really, there is no reason to think that these Astros, as thin as they are, will be historically bad.
Part of this is a gut feeling, based on the usual composition of awful teams. They tend to be teams who have not yet begun the full rebuilding process yet — or expansion teams — which feature a lot of old guys and castoffs on the roster. The sorts of players who can fool a GM into thinking, “well, maybe we’ll be OK because I’ve heard of that guy,” and thus causes them to forego real substantive fixes. That was the 2012 Astros, right? Home of Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. A team which gave Armando Galarraga a shot because, hell, he almost had a perfect game once, right? A team which went on a 7-43 stretch at one point because, eh, just because?
The 2013 team is not a talented one, but the moves to make them better have begun. The Jed Lowrie trade, which brought back Chris Carter, Max Stassi and Brad Peacock is the sort of move I like: boring ones to most fans, but moves which constitute the dirty work of a rebuilding process. Getting depth and incremental improvement. That, along with a pretty substantial overhaul of the minor leagues, represents an all-in approach which is admirable and rare in rebuilding. Let’s just forget for a moment that Carlos Pena, currently slated to be the Astros’ DH, was on that 2003 Tigers team, OK?
Little upside at the moment, but fewer gaping holes and a lot of hungry young players who are happy to be anywhere make for a much better vibe than last year’s 107 loss team possessed and, I have a feeling, will help stave off some sort of historically bad showing. Perhaps that doesn’t make Astros fans feel better at the moment, but merely believing that this team will not set records for futility is a compliment. One that, for some reason, a lot of people are unwilling to offer. I think that’s both ahistorical and kinda sad. Think positively, Houston!
What else is going on?
- Positive thoughts and the avoidance of ignominy are one thing, but this lineup isn’t gonna scare anyone:
Jose Altuve is legit and will likely be the last dude left from this bunch when the Astros next win 90 games, but I don’t know where the runs are gonna come from. Maybe Carlos Pena has one last good year in him. Maybe he can check the pockets of the pants he wore back in 2009.
- How’s about that rotation?
Hmm. Phil Humber. Let’s forget that comment I made about Armando Galarraga and signing someone just because they once did something interesting above too.
- The Astros may play poorly, but they’ll look awesome doing it. They will be sporting what are easily the nicest new uniforms any team has switched to in years if not decades.
- That’s pretty, but you know what’s ugly? Moving to the American League West. With the Angels and Rangers being two of the most talented teams around, the defending champ Oakland A’s always being solid and with an improved Mariners team, the Astros are gonna have way tougher competition this year than they’ve seen in the past.
So, how are they gonna do? Not good! I will refrain from predicting loss totals, but I’ll give a range of somewhere between 100 and 110. And if things break awesome in six different ways and they lose only, like, 97, well then they should be allowed to crack champagne. Because it’s not 2013 that matters for this franchise. It’s the future. And no matter how dark the present may be, they’re finally doing the heavy lifting they’ve long needed to do in order to make that future bright, so bully for them.
That said: Fifth Place, AL West.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:06 PM EST
Baseball card collecting in the post-bicycle spokes, pre-crash world of the 1980s.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:17 PM EST
And the Padres “continue to consult medical experts.”
Dec 18, 2014, 11:39 AM EST
Let’s pump the brakes a bit on the imminent MLB takeover of Cuba.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:47 AM EST
Quotes from manager Buck Showalter.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
The city council will vote on the deal allowing the team to look for a new stadium site.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
Okajima, who pitched six years in the majors for the Red Sox and briefly the A’s, has signed with the Yokohama Bay Stars.
Dec 18, 2014, 9:58 AM EST
He profiled as a back-of-the-rotation starter in the United States.
Dec 18, 2014, 9:41 AM EST
It won’t be a free agent free-for-all and it likely won’t be a draft. So how will the Cuban baseball players come to the United States?
Dec 18, 2014, 8:55 AM EST
Sadly, it is not Rudy Law. Though it is one of his teammates.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
The Orioles’ slugger got a 25 suspension for taking the drug without an exemption in 2014. He’ll be back on it in 2015.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:35 PM EST
According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Orioles, Reds, and Mariners are among the possible landing spots for the 32-year-old free agent corner outfielder.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:18 PM EST
Jeff Samardzija, former Cubs starter and recent White Sox trade acquisition, was welcomed back to the Windy City prior to Tuesday night’s NHL game between the Chicago Blackhawks and visiting Minnesota Wild …
Dec 17, 2014, 9:24 PM EST
David Hernandez looked like a non-tender candidate after undergoing Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery in April, but the Diamondbacks decided to keep him around …
Dec 17, 2014, 8:10 PM EST
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Marlins, Braves, and Giants have all expressed interest in free agent starter Jake Peavy …
Dec 17, 2014, 7:02 PM EST
From CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman comes word that the Royals have agreed to terms on a two-year, $20 million free agent contract with Edinson Volquez.
Dec 17, 2014, 6:16 PM EST
A three-team, 11-player trade has been agreed upon between the Rays, Padres, and Nationals. It centers around outfielder Wil Myers.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:08 PM EST
He is expected to be able to resume baseball activities before Spring Training begins.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:16 PM EST
One-time Red Sox prospect trying to snag a bench gig.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:05 PM EST
If you don’t love Pedro Martinez there is no helping you.
Dec 17, 2014, 2:51 PM EST
Sticking together after seven seasons.
- What will the future of Cuban players in MLB look like? 15
- Royals sign Edinson Volquez for two years, $20 million 27
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade 91
- Sergio Romo re-signs with the Giants for $15 million 15
- So, apparently we’re sweating the Matt Kemp physical now 46
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba 144
- Marlins complete Michael Morse deal: two years, $16 million 19
- Padres, Rays, Mariners discussing trade involving Wil Myers 36
- Baseball’s highest-ranking Hispanic woman employee sues for discrimination (163)
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, and Astros interested in Phillies’ Cole Hamels (110)
- Done Deal: Yoenis Cespedes and two players traded to Detroit for Rick Porcello and a minor leaguer (105)
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. (95)