Mar 22, 2013, 3:15 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Today: the Minnesota Twins.
The Big Question: Did the Twins do enough to improve their AL-worst rotation?
After a decade-long run as a consistent winner in the AL Central the Twins fell apart in 2011, losing 99 games and firing general manager Bill Smith while replacing him with the man he replaced, Terry Ryan. Things were supposed to be better last season and I suppose technically they were, but the Twins lost 96 games despite a far healthier team and some strong individual performances because they simply couldn’t pitch.
Twins starting pitchers had the worst ERA in baseball among teams that don’t call Coors Field home and the pitching staff as a whole recorded the fewest strikeouts in baseball for the second straight season. At the beginning of the offseason Ryan spoke of big plans for addressing the terrible rotation, but when the dust settled the only moves were trading for Vance Worley and signing Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey as free agents.
Worley was a sound pickup who should be a solid mid-rotation starter long term and Pelfrey is a reasonable enough reclamation project with mid-rotation potential as he comes back from Tommy John elbow surgery, but giving a two-year, $10 million deal to Correia made little sense when similar or better pitchers were agreeing to one-year deals all winter. Of the 91 pitchers to throw at least 400 innings as starters since 2010 he ranked 88th in ERA, 81st in strikeout rate, and 80th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
And that was it. That was the full extent of the Twins addressing their awful rotation.
Would-be Opening Day starter Scott Diamond will begin the season on the disabled list following a setback with what the team called minor elbow surgery in December and former first-round pick Kyle Gibson isn’t ready for the majors after Tommy John surgery in late 2011, so the Twins will likely turn to Samuel Deduno and/or Cole DeVries to fill out the rotation. It’s not a good sign when the same career minor leaguers who joined the rotation as emergency options during a miserable season are already back in the mix before Opening Day.
What else is going on?
• As dark as things look for the Twins now the future is extremely bright. Thanks to the combination of shrewd international signings, high draft picks, and veteran-for-prospect trades the Twins have built one of the best farm systems in baseball. They placed six prospects on Baseball America‘s top-100 list, including Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton in the top 10, and will add the No. 4 overall pick in the draft to the farm system in June. I’ve been writing about the Twins on my personal blog for 11 years and this is the best, deepest farm system they’ve had in that time.
• Sano and Buxton are still teenagers and years away from the majors, but the Twins look likely to get an immediate impact from the farm system by naming Aaron Hicks their Opening Day center fielder. Hicks has yet to play above Double-A, but the former first-round pick is a standout defender with an elite arm and improved significantly at the plate last season by adding power to his already strong patience. Delaying the start of his service time clock by sending him to Triple-A for a month or so would seemingly make sense, but all signs point to the Twins handing Hicks the job now.
• Ron Gardenhire enters his 13th season as Twins manager without a contract beyond this year and most of his coaching staff was fired or reassigned during the offseason, leading to speculation that another 90-loss season would lead to his exit. He’s the second-longest tenured manager in MLB behind Mike Scioscia.
• If the Twins get off to another bad start it’ll be interesting to see if they begin shopping veterans. In the past they’ve largely shied away from that, choosing to let guys like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave via free agency, but Justin Morneau will be a free agent after the season and Josh Willingham isn’t exactly part of the long-term plans at age 34.
• Joe Mauer took an incredible amount of heat locally for an injury wrecked 2011 season, which tends to happen when you miss half the year after signing a $184 million contract. He bounced back in a huge way last season, setting career-highs in games and plate appearances while hitting .319 with the highest on-base percentage in the league. Mauer was paid $23 million last season and Fan Graphs calculated his on-field value at … $23 million. Joe Mauer ain’t the problem.
• Target Field is an amazing place to watch a game and easily one of MLB’s best ballparks, but as the Twins enter Year 4 there they’ve already squandered much of the new ballpark excitement by putting out a terrible product. Only the Astros had a bigger attendance drop last year as Minnesota fell into the middle of the pack, and 20 percent of season ticket holders did not renew. And that becomes a chicken-or-egg situation, because the Twins have sliced payroll from $115 million in 2010 to $80 million this year in part due to decreased revenue, but the lack of spending has also helped turn the team into something no one wants to watch.
Prediction: Fifth place, American League Central
Aug 30, 2014, 11:05 AM EDT
And wouldn’t you know it, it worked.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:01 AM EDT
Ellsbury injured his left ankle on a slide into home plate on Friday night.
Aug 30, 2014, 10:36 AM EDT
Pearce owns a surprising .289/.354/.532 batting line with 16 home runs and 37 RBI over 85 games this season.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
The two homers traveled a combined 858 feet.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:57 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday around MLB, including an AL West showdown.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Hyun-Jin Ryu will return to the Dodgers’ rotation on Sunday after recovering from a strained glute.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
Eric Campbell stole home against the Phillies, helping the Mets improve to 12-5 against their NL East rival this season.
Aug 29, 2014, 9:42 PM EDT
The injury-ravaged Rangers managed to tie a major league record for all the wrong reasons when they called up Ryan Rua from Triple-A on Friday.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
A day after Bruce Chen allowed six runs in the 10th inning of the Royals’ loss to the Twins on Thursday, the Royals designated the lefty for assignment.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:22 PM EDT
The Mariners have ended Jesus Montero’s season so he can address his “non-baseball issues”, a day after he went after a scout who was heckling him.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
The Mets could be without Daniel Murphy for most or all of the rest of the season, as the second baseman deals with a strained right calf.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:25 PM EDT
Joey Votto hasn’t been progressing as well from his quad injury as the Reds would have liked.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:38 PM EDT
He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth against the Cubs.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Whether this will turn into a Michael Young situation or a Derek Jeter situation is an open question.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Sad news for a once-great reliever.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:42 PM EDT
No doctor appointments are scheduled as a result, but soreness is not great news.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:17 PM EDT
If you’re going to make the same arguments for him you did the past two years, you may want to re-think things.
Aug 29, 2014, 3:27 PM EDT
There can be only THREE!! True outcomes, that is.
Aug 29, 2014, 3:04 PM EDT
Which is the right thing to do.
Aug 29, 2014, 2:24 PM EDT
Never mind that the dude has only been legally allowed inside a bar for about two years.
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- VIDEO: Jorge Soler hits two long home runs in third major league game 11
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 10
- Mariners end Jesus Montero’s season 35
- Troy Tulowitzki says he’ll retire before he switches positions 30
- Mike Trout is the best MVP choice, but . . . 44
- Baseball is dying, you guys, because no one would recognize Mike Trout in a bar 72
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 75
- Could women play major league baseball? Sure. Right now, though, the deck is stacked against them. (220)
- Forgiveness for Pete Rose? Not in this lifetime (146)
- Albert Pujols plays the “you never played the game!” card (104)
- Great Moments in Drug Testing and Punishment: The NFL Edition (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (75)