Skip to content

2013 Preview: Minnesota Twins

Mar 22, 2013, 3:15 PM EST

Rick Anderson, Ron Gardenhire AP

Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Today: the Minnesota Twins.

The Big Question: Did the Twins do enough to improve their AL-worst rotation?

After a decade-long run as a consistent winner in the AL Central the Twins fell apart in 2011, losing 99 games and firing general manager Bill Smith while replacing him with the man he replaced, Terry Ryan. Things were supposed to be better last season and I suppose technically they were, but the Twins lost 96 games despite a far healthier team and some strong individual performances because they simply couldn’t pitch.

Twins starting pitchers had the worst ERA in baseball among teams that don’t call Coors Field home and the pitching staff as a whole recorded the fewest strikeouts in baseball for the second straight season. At the beginning of the offseason Ryan spoke of big plans for addressing the terrible rotation, but when the dust settled the only moves were trading for Vance Worley and signing Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey as free agents.

Worley was a sound pickup who should be a solid mid-rotation starter long term and Pelfrey is a reasonable enough reclamation project with mid-rotation potential as he comes back from Tommy John elbow surgery, but giving a two-year, $10 million deal to Correia made little sense when similar or better pitchers were agreeing to one-year deals all winter.  Of the 91 pitchers to throw at least 400 innings as starters since 2010 he ranked 88th in ERA, 81st in strikeout rate, and 80th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

And that was it. That was the full extent of the Twins addressing their awful rotation.

Would-be Opening Day starter Scott Diamond will begin the season on the disabled list following a setback with what the team called minor elbow surgery in December and former first-round pick Kyle Gibson isn’t ready for the majors after Tommy John surgery in late 2011, so the Twins will likely turn to Samuel Deduno and/or Cole DeVries to fill out the rotation. It’s not a good sign when the same career minor leaguers who joined the rotation as emergency options during a miserable season are already back in the mix before Opening Day.

What else is going on?

• As dark as things look for the Twins now the future is extremely bright. Thanks to the combination of shrewd international signings, high draft picks, and veteran-for-prospect trades the Twins have built one of the best farm systems in baseball. They placed six prospects on Baseball America‘s top-100 list, including Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton in the top 10, and will add the No. 4 overall pick in the draft to the farm system in June. I’ve been writing about the Twins on my personal blog for 11 years and this is the best, deepest farm system they’ve had in that time.

• Sano and Buxton are still teenagers and years away from the majors, but the Twins look likely to get an immediate impact from the farm system by naming Aaron Hicks their Opening Day center fielder. Hicks has yet to play above Double-A, but the former first-round pick is a standout defender with an elite arm and improved significantly at the plate last season by adding power to his already strong patience. Delaying the start of his service time clock by sending him to Triple-A for a month or so would seemingly make sense, but all signs point to the Twins handing Hicks the job now.

• Ron Gardenhire enters his 13th season as Twins manager without a contract beyond this year and most of his coaching staff was fired or reassigned during the offseason, leading to speculation that another 90-loss season would lead to his exit. He’s the second-longest tenured manager in MLB behind Mike Scioscia.

• If the Twins get off to another bad start it’ll be interesting to see if they begin shopping veterans. In the past they’ve largely shied away from that, choosing to let guys like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave via free agency, but Justin Morneau will be a free agent after the season and Josh Willingham isn’t exactly part of the long-term plans at age 34.

Joe Mauer took an incredible amount of heat locally for an injury wrecked 2011 season, which tends to happen when you miss half the year after signing a $184 million contract. He bounced back in a huge way last season, setting career-highs in games and plate appearances while hitting .319 with the highest on-base percentage in the league. Mauer was paid $23 million last season and Fan Graphs calculated his on-field value at … $23 million. Joe Mauer ain’t the problem.

• Target Field is an amazing place to watch a game and easily one of MLB’s best ballparks, but as the Twins enter Year 4 there they’ve already squandered much of the new ballpark excitement by putting out a terrible product. Only the Astros had a bigger attendance drop last year as Minnesota fell into the middle of the pack, and 20 percent of season ticket holders did not renew. And that becomes a chicken-or-egg situation, because the Twins have sliced payroll from $115 million in 2010 to $80 million this year in part due to decreased revenue, but the lack of spending has also helped turn the team into something no one wants to watch.

Prediction: Fifth place, American League Central

Latest Posts
  1. Phillies don’t expect Chad Billingsley to be ready for Opening Day

    Mar 4, 2015, 11:20 AM EST

    Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres Getty Images

    Billingsley hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since way back in April of 2013.

  2. Now that he’s released, who pays for Joel Hanrahan’s surgery?

    Mar 4, 2015, 11:05 AM EST

    Joel Hanrahan Getty Getty Images

    Today’s news sucks for Joel Hanrahan, but it’s a good basis for an explainer.

  3. Orioles catcher Matt Wieters limited to DH duties until mid-March

    Mar 4, 2015, 10:52 AM EST

    wieters getty Getty Images

    Wieters underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in June.

  4. Rays name Alex Cobb as Opening Day starter

    Mar 4, 2015, 10:15 AM EST

    Alex Cobb Getty Getty Images

    Now that David Price is out of the picture the Rays need a new Opening Day starter.

  5. Before we laud Curt Schilling too much for his attack on corrosive social media . . .

    Mar 4, 2015, 9:59 AM EST

    Curt Schilling AP

    . . . it’s worth remembering that Schilling himself has some issues when it comes to sensitivity and enlightenment on social media.

  6. Klapisch: it’s time to give A-Rod a break

    Mar 4, 2015, 9:30 AM EST

    Alex Rodriguez

    Let us applaud one writer’s brave effort to battle the beast that is A-Rod Derangement Syndrome.

  7. Photo of the Day: now THAT’S a windup!

    Mar 4, 2015, 9:03 AM EST

    Camera

    Juan Marichal’s got nothin’ on this pitcher from Murray State.

  8. Joel Hanrahan to have a second Tommy John surgery

    Mar 4, 2015, 8:24 AM EST

    Joel Hanrahan AP

    Terrible news that will keep Joel Hanrahan off the mound for at least another year.

  9. Daniel Murphy on Billy Bean: “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual”

    Mar 4, 2015, 6:54 AM EST

    Daniel Murphy Getty Getty Images

    I wasn’t aware that one could “disagree” with facts. But there we are.

  10. Rusney Castillo suffers left side injury

    Mar 3, 2015, 10:57 PM EST

    rusney castillo getty Getty Images

    It was a successful afternoon in pretty much every way at Fenway South. Except maybe one …

  11. Yankees prospect Luis Torrens needs shoulder surgery

    Mar 3, 2015, 9:44 PM EST

    yankees logo

    The expectation is that he will have to sit out the entire 2015 season.

  12. Orioles sign Pedro Beato to minor league contract

    Mar 3, 2015, 8:31 PM EST

    beato getty Getty Images

    The deal does not include an invitation to major league spring training, so Beato won’t be under consideration for one of the spots in the Orioles’ Opening Day bullpen.

  13. Video: Yoenis Cespedes launches grand slam in Grapefruit League debut with Tigers

    Mar 3, 2015, 7:28 PM EST

    cespedes getty Getty Images

    Yoenis Cespedes made his presence felt around Tigers camp with this fourth-inning grand slam in Tuesday afternoon’s Grapefruit League opener against the visiting Orioles …

  14. Video: Jung-Ho Kang homers in Pirates debut

    Mar 3, 2015, 5:46 PM EST

    jung-ho kang getty Getty Images

    Kang hit .356 with 40 homers in Korea last season.

  15. Noah Syndergaard just learned not to eat his lunch in the clubhouse during a game

    Mar 3, 2015, 4:15 PM EST

    Noah Syndergaard Getty Images

    Because, if he does, David Wright and Bobby Parnell are gonna go kick his butt.

  16. Madison Bumgarner didn’t exactly start 2015 the way he ended 2014

    Mar 3, 2015, 3:54 PM EST

    Madison Bumgarner

    Unless someone gets injured, spring training game results don’t matter a bit. But they are a reminder that everyone starts from square one each season. No matter how well they ended the season before.

  17. Former batting champion Alex Johnson dies at age 72

    Mar 3, 2015, 3:15 PM EST

    Alex Johnson Angels

    Johnson made the All-Star team in 1970 and went on to win the batting championship by hitting .329, marking his third straight season with a batting average above .300.

  18. Spring training quotes: Pants on, pants off

    Mar 3, 2015, 2:10 PM EST

    Miguel Cabrera AP AP

    Baseball has officially started, but opinions on pants vary.

Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. C. Gonzalez (2520)
  2. A. Wainwright (2485)
  3. M. Upton (2473)
  4. A. Simmons (2447)
  5. C. Hamels (2233)