Mar 30, 2013, 11:00 PM EDT
Though Johan Santana has expressed a desire to continue his playing career after recently finding out he had re-torn the anterior capsule muscle in his left shoulder, one can’t help but reflect on his great 12-year career with the Twins and Mets. Jay Jaffe did just that at Sports Illustrated, concluding that the Hall of Fame case for the lefty isn’t that strong.
Turning to the advanced metrics to compare Santana’s case against the starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame using Baseball-Reference.com’s version of Wins Above Replacement and my own Jaffe WAR Score (JAWS) system (explained here), we can get a better sense of the impact of his short career.
Santana has compiled 49.1 WAR for his career, and 43.1 for his peak (his best seven seasons), for an overall JAWS of 46.1. The average starting pitcher in the Hall has compiled 68.1 WAR for his career, and 47.7 for his peak, for an overall JAWS of 57.9. In other words, Santana is well short measured against all three standards.
Sandy Koufax will likely be the name most closely associated to Santana if he never pitches another inning, as Koufax has a similar career adjusted ERA (131 to Santana’s 136) and career workload (2,324 innings to Santana’s 2,025). Jaffe notes, however, that Koufax had much more success in the post-season and has an additional Cy Young and an MVP award on his mantle.
It will be interesting to see where the consensus among the Baseball Writers Association of America arrives, whether it’s in five years or longer when Santana hangs up the spikes for good.
Jul 30, 2015, 12:05 AM EDT
Unique situation Wednesday night at Citi Field.
Jul 29, 2015, 11:31 PM EDT
Houston defeated Anaheim 6-3 to jump back into first place in the American League West.
Jul 29, 2015, 10:46 PM EDT
It’s a massive two-team, eight-player blockbuster deal that will net the Phillies a frontline starter for this year and years to come while injecting more young talent into the Phillies’ under-construction minor league system.
Jul 29, 2015, 9:31 PM EDT
It’s now even more imperative that St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak secures a first baseman before the July 31 trade deadline.
Jul 29, 2015, 9:01 PM EDT
What a crazy night.
Jul 29, 2015, 8:58 PM EDT
Troy Tulowitzki struck out swinging in his first Blue Jays at-bat Wednesday night against the Phillies, but he unloaded on this Jerome Williams pitch in his second trip to the plate …
Jul 29, 2015, 8:12 PM EDT
There’s been a lot of speculation that these two could be a fit, and now it may be close to happening …
Jul 29, 2015, 7:44 PM EDT
Andrew McCutchen launched a traditional two-run homer in the top of the fifth inning Wednesday in the Pirates’ 10-4 rout of the Twins and then went Little League style in the top of the sixth …
Jul 29, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
An MRI taken Tuesday ruled out anything serious, but Trout does have a bit of wrist inflammation.
Jul 29, 2015, 6:17 PM EDT
The very latest on the Cole Hamels trade front …
Jul 29, 2015, 5:21 PM EDT
The trade deadline be crazy.
Jul 29, 2015, 5:10 PM EDT
Jul 29, 2015, 3:56 PM EDT
Bradley gets another chance in Boston.
Jul 29, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
They’re in fourth place and their best player isn’t coming back for a month. Makes all sorts of sense.
Jul 29, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Some real old school mentality being demonstrated there.
Jul 29, 2015, 2:54 PM EDT
It was Verlander’s second straight eight inning, one-run performance.
Jul 29, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
Capuano failed to make it out of the first inning in Tuesday’s start.
Jul 29, 2015, 1:14 PM EDT
Jul 29, 2015, 12:19 PM EDT
At least to the extent you can have a bidding “war” over a two-month rental.
Jul 29, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Miami is 42-58.
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies 73
- Mets, Brewers call off reported Carlos Gomez trade 62
- Dodgers, Marlins, Braves trade involving Mat Latos “simply being held up by paperwork” 66
- The Tigers are going to “reboot;” plan to trade Price and Cespedes 72
- Why do managers wear uniforms anyway? 49
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 51
- Astros “making a strong effort” for Phillies ace Cole Hamels 32
- Angels acquire outfielders David Murphy and David DeJesus 24
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Settling the Scores: Wednesday’s results (106)