Apr 2, 2013, 6:30 PM EDT
The AL had an historic Rookie of the Year class last year, but this year, the NL appears to have the stronger group of the two leagues. The one issue: a lot of these talents are likely to have to wait until June or July for their opportunities, if they come this year at all.
Wily Peralta (RHP Brewers) – 25:1 – Peralta enters the season with pretty high expectations for a guy who posted a 4.66 ERA and walked 4.8 batters per nine innings in Triple-A last year. The 23-year-old has a nice live arm and he should turn into a No. 3 starter in time, but I don’t expect it’s going to happen right away this year. Patience will be required.
Projection: 9-10, 4.24 ERA, 1.374 WHIP, 135 K’s in 155 IP
Yasiel Puig (OF Dodgers) – 25:1 – With a starting outfield making $54 million this year, the Dodgers weren’t going to carry Puig on Opening Day. It would have been much more interesting to see what they would have done had Puig played a position of need instead. For as ridiculously awesome as Puig’s spring was — he hit .517 with three homers, two triples and five doubles in 58 at-bats — he’s probably not ready to help a major league club. There’s good reason for excitement, but let’s see how he fares against some pitchers more focused on getting him out than getting their work in.
Projection: .243/.287/.425, 6 HR, 24 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB in 181 AB
Nolan Arenado (3B Rockies) – 20:1 – Arenado was a disappointment in 2012 after receiving plenty of hype last spring, but he impressed in Rockies camp this year and nearly won the starting job at third base over Chris Nelson. He’ll open the season in the minors instead, but it’d be no surprise if the Rockies revisit their decision at the end of April. I’m not very high on Arenado; he’s a line-drive hitter without great on-base percentages. Still, he can hit for average and he’ll have Coors Field on his side, making him a possible long shot candidate here.
Projection: .270/.310/.433, 8 HR, 30 R, 34 RBI, 1 SB in 252 AB
Adam Eaton (OF Diamondbacks) – 20:1 – As Chris Young’s replacement in center field in Arizona, Eaton was shaping up as a popular ROY pick before suffering a sprained elbow ligament in March. The hope now is that he’ll be back in mid-May, which would still give him a chance to make his way into the race. Still, even before the injury, I didn’t think he was a great bet for the hardware; his on-base percentage is a much bigger strength than his ability to hit for average and he won’t show much power at all.
Projection: .266/.355/.383, 6 HR, 59 R, 31 RBI, 18 SB in 379 AB
Jose Fernandez (RHP Marlins) – 18:1 – The Marlins made the stunning call Sunday that they were bringing up the 20-year-old Fernandez and intending to keep him in the rotation all year. Fernandez had made just one spring appearance in the Grapefruit League, and expectations were that he’d spend at least the first half of the year in the minors. Maybe the NL’s top pitching prospect, Fernandez certainly has the ability to be an above average starter as one of the NL’s youngest players. Still, he’ll probably be shut down for the final month of the year, which would hurt his ROY chances.
Projection: 9-9, 3.84 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 138 K’s in 152 1/3 IP
Oscar Taveras (OF Cardinals) – 18:1 – It’s a matter of opportunity for Taveras, who rates as the National League’s No. 1 prospect after hitting .321/.380/.572 with 23 homers and 10 steals for Double-A Springfield last year. The 20-year-old is likely ready to hit for average and modest power now, but the Cardinals aren’t going to sit Jon Jay or Carlos Beltran to make room for him. Barring an injury to Beltran or another outfielder, Taveras appears in line to spend the first half of the season in Triple-A.
Projection: .274/.323/.447, 7 HR, 28 R, 30 RBI, 3 SB in 215 AB
Christian Yelich (OF Marlins) – 15:1 – Yelich had to be disappointed to be send down after hitting a remarkable .364/.451/.818 with five homers and a 7/6 K/BB ratio in 44 spring at-bats. Once the Marlins went and called up Fernandez, one imagines that disappointment quickly transitioned into frustration and anger; if any of the Marlins’ top prospects deserved to make the team, it was Yelich. Still, that the Marlins did promote Fernandez suggests that Yelich might not be far behind, especially since the team seems to have soured on Justin Ruggiano in center. Yelich has all the makings of a future star.
Projection: .266/.337/.403, 9 HR, 53 R, 44 RBI, 10 SB in 402 AB
Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP Cubs) – 10:1 – Never underestimate the power of the save when it comes to the Rookie of the Year balloting. Fujikawa already picked up one on Monday, and while the Cubs insist that they’re sticking with Carlos Marmol in the closer’s role for now, Fujikawa is pretty clearly their best option in the ninth.
Projection: 3-2, 25 Sv, 2.91 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 55 K’s in 58 2/3 IP
Billy Hamilton – (OF Reds) – 10:1 – If I had gotten this column done prior to Opening Day as hoped, Hamilton probably would have been listed at 25:1. Now that Ryan Ludwick is about to undergo shoulder surgery after getting hurt Monday, Hamilton’s prospects seem a whole lot brighter. The Reds still won’t rush him, as he needs more time in center after making the switch from shortstop. Still, I imagine they’re eventually going to decide they’re better off with Shin-Soo Choo in corner. Hamilton is so spectacular on the basepaths that he could potentially debut in June and still lead the league in steals.
Projection (pre-Ludwick injury): .258/.331/.358, 1 HR, 24 R, 9 RBI, 31 SB in 151 AB
Shelby Miller (RHP Cardinals) – 8:1 – Just when it looked like Joe Kelly would be named the Cardinals’ fifth starter, closer Jason Motte got hurt, opening a spot on the pitching staff and making it easier to put Miller into the rotation. Maybe they would have gone that route anyway. Miller struggled in the first half of 2012, but he recovered velocity as the year went on and impressed in a late major league audition, amassing a 1.32 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. If his command holds up, he’ll prove to be a whole lot more than a No. 5 for St. Louis; he has No. 2 starter stuff.
Projection: 11-8, 3.90 ERA, 1.312 WHIP, 151 K’s in 159 1/3 IP
Jedd Gyorko (2B-3B Padres) – 8:1 – Gyorko essentially won his starting job in the first few days of the spring, hitting three homers and driving in nine runs in his first four games. From there, he hit .234 with one homer in 64 at-bats the rest of the way. My guess is that Gyorko will be a solid regular as a rookie, but not really anything more. Fortunately, PetcoPark won’t take quite as much of a toll on his numbers as it once would have. He’s one of the safer picks for Rookie of the Year honors, but I see him as more likely to finish second or third.
Projection: .258/.320/.419, 18 HR, 72 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB in 515 AB
Julio Teheran (RHP Braves) – 7:1 – Teheran made surprisingly little progress in 2012 and tumbled on offseason prospects lists as a result. Then he went and posted a 1.04 ERA and a 35/9 K/BB ratio in 26 innings this spring. Teheran was about as impressive as any pitcher in the Grapefruit League, and expectations are now far beyond “maybe he can be a decent fifth starter until Brandon Beachy returns.” Of course, he’s still just 22 years old, so growing pains are a possibility.
Projection: 12-9, 3.79 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 159 K’s in 180 1/3 IP
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP Dodgers) – 6:1 – The Dodgers spent $25.7 million on Ryu’s rights and then signed him for $36 million over the winter, essentially guaranteeing him a rotation spot in the process. After a shaky start to his spring in which his lack of conditioning led to some jokes at his expense, Ryu was dominant in his final three outings, allowing just three hits in 16 2/3 innings. The guess here is that Ryu’s success continues well into the season; his curveball and changeup are very good complements to an 89-92 mph fastball. He may wear down late, as he hasn’t thrown 200 innings in a season since 2007.
Projection: 13-7, 3.48 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 158 K’s in 170 2/3 IP
The field – 5:1 – Gerrit Cole (RHP Pirates), Pete Kozma (SS Cardinals), Rob Brantly (Marlins), Zack Wheeler (RHP Mets), Tyler Skaggs (LHP Diamondbacks), Michael Wacha (RHP Cardinals), Trevor Rosenthal (RHP Cardinals), A.J. Ramos (RHP Marlins), Adeiny Hechavarria (SS Marlins), Travis d’Arnaud (C Mets), Evan Gattis (C-OF Braves), Matt Adams (1B Cardinals), Hunter Morris (1B Brewers), Darin Ruf (1B-OF Phillies), Kolten Wong (2B Cardinals), Anthony Rendon (3B Nationals), Matt Davidson (3B-OF Diamondbacks), Brett Jackson (OF Cubs), Gary Brown (OF Giants), Tony Cingrani (LHP Reds)
A whole lot of talent here. Cole would be right behind Ryu and Teheran on my list if the Pirates didn’t appear committed to keeping him in the minors for the first two months. Wheeler and Wacha are also big-time arms with no opportunity right now. Also, fantasy leaguers shouldn’t sleep on Rosenthal and Ramos. The Cardinals are hoping to get Jason Motte back in May, but if it doesn’t happen, Rosenthal should eventually overtake Mitchell Boggs for closing duties. Ramos is behind a perfectly fine reliever in Steve Chisek, but he’s the future in the closer’s role for Miami.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:46 AM EDT
Dirk Hayhurst takes a graphic look at depravity and likely illegality in the low minor leagues.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
Now we’re cooking with gas.
Jul 29, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
Ask yourself: how does a dude in this position — leaning in the opposite direction of first base — turn and get anything on his throw?
Jul 29, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
This is one of those quotes that, if the translation was mangled, could have created an incident.
Jul 29, 2014, 5:00 AM EDT
A three run lead and Rafael Soriano on the hill usually leads to an un-tuck fest. Not last night it didn’t.
Jul 28, 2014, 11:41 PM EDT
The Red Sox hold some interesting cards going into Thursday’s trade deadline.
Jul 28, 2014, 10:26 PM EDT
With three hits against the Rangers this evening, Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter has passed Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski for seventh-place on baseball’s all-time hit list.
Jul 28, 2014, 9:20 PM EDT
The Giants currently have two players sidelined with concussions. Brandon Belt appears closer to returning than Hector Sanchez.
Jul 28, 2014, 8:28 PM EDT
Mark Teixeira is out of the Yankees’ starting lineup for the eighth straight game tonight due to a lower lat strain, but he’s aiming to make his return tomorrow.
Jul 28, 2014, 7:29 PM EDT
It’s not a big deal, but the Blue Jays and Royals have pulled off a trade this evening which will send infielder Danny Valencia to Toronto and catcher Erik Kratz and right-hander Liam Hendriks to Kansas City.
Jul 28, 2014, 6:51 PM EDT
We heard yesterday that the Dodgers have been in touch with the Red Sox about a deal for left-hander Jon Lester, but they figure to have plenty of competition leading up to Thursday’s non-waiver trade deadline.
Jul 28, 2014, 6:17 PM EDT
An impending free agent, Justin Masterson owns a disappointing 5.51 ERA over 18 starts this season and is currently on the disabled list with right knee inflammation.
Jul 28, 2014, 5:34 PM EDT
Looks like he picked the wrong week to not stop doing amphetamines.
Jul 28, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
A’s outfielder Craig Gentry began the season on the disabled list with a back injury and now, after hitting just .264 with zero homers and a .625 OPS in 80 games, he’s going on the shelf again with a broken hand.
Jul 28, 2014, 5:03 PM EDT
Do the right thing and good things happen. Not always, but here, yes.
Jul 28, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Two weeks ago the Yankees acquired Jeff Francis from the A’s as a roster reinforcement, but now they’ve designated the journeyman left-hander for assignment.
Jul 28, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
After a couple months worth of reports that Cole Hamels is not on the market . . . maybe he’s on the market.
Jul 28, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Bedard was demoted from the rotation to the bullpen three weeks ago, but has barely pitched since then and at age 35 could be nearing the end of the line.
Jul 28, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
At this point I’m almost convinced that the ground balls are purposely doing strange things just to test the limits of what Simmons is capable of.
Jul 28, 2014, 3:04 PM EDT
Life begins at 37.
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 27
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter passes Carl Yastrzemski for seventh on all-time hits list 44
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence 89
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 50
- Mariners’ interest in Matt Kemp is “very real” 29
- Astros players upset over Mark Appel’s promotion to Double-A, bullpen session in Houston 45
- Four theories about the Hall of Fame voting changes 24
- Troy Tulowitzki is visiting a sports hernia surgeon 10
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (201)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (165)
- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres (108)
- David Ortiz passes Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list — is he a Hall of Famer? (92)
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence (89)