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The Mets would trade for Giancarlo Stanton “in a heartbeat”

Apr 11, 2013, 2:30 PM EDT

Giancarlo Stanton Getty Images

Well, duh. So would a lot of teams. But Andy Martino spoke to some Mets officials — not necessarily the top decision makers, but people involved in those conversations — and the consensus is that, yep, the Mets would trade top prospects including Zack Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton. They’ve been “monitoring his situation” since the winter.

I’m struggling to think of any prospect I wouldn’t trade for Stanton. Any hitting prospect’s absolute best case scenario is Stanton. No pitching prospect is a sure thing, ever.  Maybe you don’t go all Herschel Walker-trade and give up, like, five blue chippers. But if it meant two absolute top prospects and some filler, I think you have to do that deal.  Stanton is too good and has too many years of team control — and there are so few sluggers poised to reach free agency in their primes these days — that you have to pull the trigger if the Marlins give you the chance.

  1. Sideline Mob - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:33 PM

    If the Marlins make this deal, Bud Selig should institute relegation in MLB like the English Premier League. Marlins and Astros go down to Triple A until they prove they actually care again.

    • El Bravo - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:37 PM

      Don’t forget the Cubs. They can’t even begin building a team before they get this renovation deal done with Chicago. Basically, they’ve already admitted to allowing the team to suffer in order to get the deal done. Said deal remains unfinalized.

    • sisisisisisisi - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:09 PM

      Excuse meeeeeeeeeeeeee

      BUT

      The Astros have a better record than the Angels

      • Sideline Mob - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:39 PM

        That’s nice. The Arizona Cardinals started last season 4-0 too.

      • djpostl - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:46 PM

        They’ll also lose 110+ games this year, seriously challenge the MLB team strikeout record and feature a payroll with their “most expensive guy” making far less than Livan Hernandez could command right now lol.

        I know they’re rebuilding, but for a market that size it’s pretty pathetic.

    • sisisisisisisi - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:53 PM

      You are right, I see a lot of similarity between the Astros 3-6 and the Cardinals 4-0 :)

      FYI, Arizona is the oldest NFL team, dating back to 1898 with the Chicago Cardinals

      • Sideline Mob - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:55 PM

        FYI, you’d think they’d have done a little more winning then.

  2. kranepool - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:38 PM

    Here is Martino’s Mets offical who feeds him all his earth shattering inside info http://cbsnewyork.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/coffee-the-panhandling-dog.jpg?w=300

  3. exilerugby - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:42 PM

    Isn’t this like Madlibs? The “Insert Team Here” would trade for Giancarlo Stanton in a heartbeat?

  4. sdelmonte - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:43 PM

    But what good what trading for Wheeler do? He’ll be in the majors soon and before you know it, he’ll be just trade bait too.

    Seriously, there is just something about the Marlins that makes me see them as becoming a bizarro version of the Rays. It’s hard to imagine them creating the same sort of pipeline from the minors to being key pieces of a good team to being perfect trade bait. More likely, they find a way to get it all wrong.

  5. indaburg - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:47 PM

    While I want Stanton to be free of the Feesh, I’d like to see him on a team with better ownership than the Mets.

    • Old Gator - Apr 11, 2013 at 2:59 PM

      And everyone who knows the Iron Giant well knows that what he wants is to go back to California. However many years of team control there might be left, he’s gone gone gone like a cool breeze as soon as he gets past them.

      • Kevin S. - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:01 PM

        If he got traded to a good team that offered him a big extension, you think he’d say no?

      • Old Gator - Apr 11, 2013 at 11:07 PM

        I think he’d accept an extension that took him to the end of his captivity period, and not a day more. The moment the day of free agency dawns, he’s gonna follow the sun.

  6. sisisisisisisi - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:12 PM

    At least the Marlins fans are a lot smarter than the Cowboys fans, they actually refuse to show up to the games.

    Jerry Jones is 1 of the biggest idiot in football, but yet the stadium always filled

  7. paperlions - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:17 PM

    Stanton is very good, but I feel like his 28.9% K rate, which isn’t improving, combined with his 10% walk rate limits his upside as an offensive player. The power is fantastic, but he’s never going to be a .400 OBP player, or even a .380 guy, and a .380+ OBP with good power is better than a .350 OBP guy with elite power. Guys with similar K rates since Stanton has come into the league are Dunn (of course), Reynolds, Alverez, Stubbs, Pena, and Howard. In other words, it isn’t that common for guys with contact problems to be awesome offensive players.

  8. arrooo - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:50 PM

    It’s wheeler and DArnaud for Stanton. I don’t think it’s a no brainer by any means. Tough decision

    • Sideline Mob - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:57 PM

      If I’m the Mets, I don’t make that trade. I don’t even come close to making that trade.

      • dondada10 - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:47 PM

        Why not? It’d be as if we traded a half year of Beltran and R.A. Dickey for Giancarlo Stanton, John Buck and Noah Syndergaard.

    • richyballgame - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:21 PM

      Wheeler and Wilmer Flores would be what the Mets would most likely include as center pieces.

      • dondada10 - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:46 PM

        I don’t think Flores is a good enough second piece. I also don’t see TDA being moved, seeing how the Marlins already have Brantley installed as their catcher of the future.

        A package that could get it done from the Mets would be:
        1. Wheeler
        2. Montero
        3. One of either Domingo Tapia or Luis Mateo
        4. Lucas Duda to take over for Stanton

  9. onbucky96 - Apr 11, 2013 at 3:55 PM

    Stanton, why? He has Evil Empire or Red Sox written all over him come free agency time.

    • richyballgame - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:17 PM

      If he ends up being traded,you can kiss his prime years good-bye,he’ll sign a big fat long extension.

      • Old Gator - Apr 11, 2013 at 11:08 PM

        Only if he’s traded to a west coast team.

  10. thebadguyswon - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:03 PM

    I just checked with “anonymous front office types” for the other 29 teams. Turns out, the 29 other teams each had various levels of interest in Stanton, ranging from “white-hot level of interest” to “Single White Female-like psychotic bromance” level of interest.”

  11. thomas844 - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:03 PM

    The Reds should try to make a trade for Stanton, even if it means giving up some really good prospects. With Stanton hitting cleanup, Votto may actually get some pitches to unload on.

  12. historiophiliac - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:05 PM

    It’s good to be the steak.

  13. richyballgame - Apr 11, 2013 at 4:16 PM

    I think a deal would center around Wheeler/Flores. The Mets best pitching and hitting prospects with a 2-3 mid-level prospects.

  14. hittfamily - Apr 11, 2013 at 5:27 PM

    When the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard, my first thought was to take that exact package and offer it to Miami for Stanton. I think Miami would have a hard time turning that down.

    • paperlions - Apr 11, 2013 at 5:31 PM

      They should be able to turn it down easily, because plenty of teams could and would offer more.

      • hittfamily - Apr 11, 2013 at 6:49 PM

        Nobody has offered more that I am aware of. And I don’t think many teams could and would. Teams that have stockpiled young talent, the “could”, wouldn’t because they aren’t chasing a playoff spot. The Mariners “could”, but they want Walker, Hultzen and Zunino to contribute towards a playoff push, but it won’t be this year or next. The Mets “could”, with D’Arnaud and Wheeler, but wouldn’t because they are more than 1 piece away. The Pirates “could”, the Astros “could” etc.

        The Rangers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals could all offer more than that package. But do you really think they would offer more? Only the Rays could give up a premier bat and pitcher and not have to alter their plans for the next few years. A top 5 overall prospect (Myers), a top 20 pitching prospect (Odorizzi), a former top 5 pitching prospect (Montgomery), and a 20 year old 3b with tons of power (Leonard). I don’t see many teams being willing to top that for a right fielder who will be arbitration eligible next year, and will make a ton of money.

      • Dan Camponovo - Apr 11, 2013 at 7:09 PM

        This is a couple months old now, but the argument still stands: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-trading-giancarlo-stanton-even-possible/

        Basically, even the *best* hitting prospect in baseball might have a ceiling as Giancarlo Stanton — you’d be trading a hypothetical prospect several years from the peak he may or may not reach for the real deal now. In reality, I don’t think a Wheeler/D’arnaud deal would be enough to get Stanton, and if it were, I think those players might, a few years down the line (because remember, Stanton is only 23 and still entering his peak), not be as good as Stanton. It would take some dream-team package of Jurickson Profar, Oscar Taveras and Dylan Bundy to get close to the perceived value of Stanton. That’s the thing with these trades — aside from the classic Teixeira-for-everybody-on-the-Rangers deal, they *rarely* work out for the team receiving the prospects. I agree the Marlins have to trade Stanton while his value is high, but they’re going to hold out for the best package offered (better than the Mets’ package) and it will end up falling short in a few years.

      • paperlions - Apr 11, 2013 at 8:31 PM

        The thing is, following the logic of the FG article, teams have to give up a lot for a player that, IMO, has limited value. Yes, the power is fantastic, but the on-base skills are only slightly above average (yes, they may improve, but they haven’t for 3 years…so the may be it)….and that is probably giving him some extra walks because teams can pitch around him in that lineup. His defense is plus now, but it is also as good as it’ll get. Just seems like teams would be risking a lot to give up multiple A-grade prospects for Stanton, who probably hit about his ceiling last year. As a Cardinal fan, I’d rather have Taveras and MIller than Stanton….and Taveras and Miller probably wouldn’t be enough to get him.

      • Dan Camponovo - Apr 11, 2013 at 10:55 PM

        The strikeout and walkrate concerns are overblown.

        http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

        Between 2011 and 2012, Stanton hit 71 homeruns. Only 16 players hit 60 HRs over the same time period (and Stanton’s 71 were the 4th most). Of those 16, Stanton had the 2nd lowest GIDP (meaning he avoids weak groundballs with runners on — remember, sometimes it’s better to strikeout than give away 2 outs), he was 2nd in ISO, 4th in SLG, 6th in WOBA, 6th in WRC+, had the 6th most triples, the 8th highest BB% and is a decent fielder compared to the other outfielders on the list (Granderson, Hamilton, Willingham to name a few). Yes, I’m cherrypicking stats here, as everyone does, but: once you get past the truly elite five-tool MVP caliber players who beat him in the majority of the traditional stats, guys like Miggy and Ryan Braun and Jose Bautista and Adrian Beltre, Stanton settles right in around the 6th or 7th “best” player with those power numbers. Over 2011-12 he has a higher OBP and SLG than Albert Pujols, for crying out loud. Once you get past that elite crop of homerun hitters, Stanton’s going against guys like Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo, Mark Teixeira (lotta Marks), Jay Bruce, all with worst triple slash lines than Stanton.

        Stanton’s like the 6th best player on that list, perhaps a notch below the MVP guys, but at 23, he’s only improving, he has years of team control left, and he’s a name draw.

      • paperlions - Apr 12, 2013 at 7:29 AM

        No, they aren’t. If he continues to K around 30% of his ABs, his OBP potential is capped around .350, which is nice, but he’ll have to slug over 700 to make himself as valuable as a guy with a .400ish OBP and nice power. I am not saying it makes him unvaluable, just that it does put a ceiling on his potential value…..and he is NOT improving, his K rates are the same now as they were when he was a rookie. You can’t assume a guy is improving just because he’s young. It is like projecting Andrus’ bat, yeah, he’s only 24, and since he was 20 he has not shown any improvement whatsoever as a hitter….so this may be it….some guys just hit their ceiling at an earlier age, which can make them start, but also screws up their performance curve compared to the norm. Like Trout, there is almost no way he ever matches what he did at 20, you can’t project improvement on that line just because he SHOULD be improving (should, as in, because that is what normal guys would be doing).

      • paperlions - Apr 12, 2013 at 7:36 AM

        To demonstrate, check the link below, sorted by K rate since Stanton came into the league. Napoli’s .352 is the highest OBP on the entire page, and Stanton’s .350 is next. That is pretty much the ceiling for not making outs when you don’t make contact in 30% of your ABs. And OBP >> SLG

        http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

      • Old Gator - Apr 11, 2013 at 11:10 PM

        “Name draw” being the kicker there. Weighed against the strikeouts is the persona, the power to put tushies in the seats. Owners like that.

      • paperlions - Apr 12, 2013 at 7:30 AM

        Owners like winning. Names really don’t draw, winning draws. Last year the Angels drew fewer fans than they had since Moreno bought the team….Pujols had zero noticeable effect on “draw”.

      • Dan Camponovo - Apr 12, 2013 at 11:44 AM

        OBP > SLG, yes, but wOBA > OBP and wRC+ > OBP as well, and over 2011-12, Stanton ranked 7th in both. He was the 7th best hitter over his age 21 and 22 seasons! As for the concerns of him not improving — yes, his BB% is stagnant and his K% is going up, but his triple slash line, WOBA and WRC+ have gone up each of the past 3 seasons. Over 2011-12 he ranked 34th among 124 qualified batters in OBP with .358, which, yes, isn’t elite, but is ahead of guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Zimmerman and Andrus, all players who just signed monster contracts.

        I think your standards are too high, paperlions — you talk about him being less valuable than a “400ish OBP and nice power” guy, but that guy doesn’t exist in baseball anymore. 400ish OBP is a TON, and what is “nice power”? .510 SLG? Aside from guys like Cabrera .420/.596, Braun .394/.596, Bautista .414/.576, Votto .439/.545 and Fielder .415/.547, the “400ish OBP” guys drop off very quickly. “400ish OBP and nice power” might be Matt Holiday at .383/.509 or Andrew McCutchen at .382/.506, who both rank below (albeit by just a few spots) Stanton’s 7th overall in wRC+ and wOBA. And after then, the OBP drops to the .360/.370 range.

        In a vacuum, yes, you’re correct, a .390/.510 player is much more valuable than a .350/.600 player, but that first guy doesn’t exist in major league baseball. That player’s George Brett (1980-90 .392/.520, 146 wRC+) or Carl Yastrzemski (1960-70 .390/.496, 143 wRC+).

  15. 13arod - Apr 11, 2013 at 6:02 PM

    i would love to see the yankeeys get him or tampa

  16. millmannj - Apr 11, 2013 at 8:19 PM

    @13arod Who could the Yankees offer that would even come close to the Mets offer of Wheeler and D’Arnaud? They have nothing in their minor league system that would be considered major league-ready, let alone a top prospect.

  17. joejaws75 - Apr 11, 2013 at 10:32 PM

    Phillies are obsessed with Stanton vid traded he will be a Phillie

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