Apr 26, 2013, 7:15 PM EST
If you had Clay Buchholz being the first pitcher to five wins, please collect your prize. The Red Sox hurler, now 28, has had a great start to the season as seems to be the case for a lot of pitchers on the Beantown roster. Buchholz struck out ten Astros last night and has yet to allow more than two runs in any start thus far in the season. He is looking like a new-and-improved pitcher, perhaps better than the one we saw finish sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2010, when he posted a 2.33 ERA.
The most striking change for Buchholz has been his strikeout rate. He has traditionally hovered between 16-17 percent, which is a shade below the American League average. In his first 38 innings so far in 2013, it’s at 27 percent. Marc Normandin of Red Sox blog Over the Monster asks the obvious question: can we trust his strikeout rate? His research shows that Buchholz’s sudden improvement wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Since 1993, 17 pitchers — including Boston’s own Jon Lester — have seen their K/PA increase by at least eight percentage points from one year to the next, minimum 100 innings in each season. The quality of these pitchers themselves varies, but that’s not the key question with Buchholz: what’s important is that jumps in strikeout rate like the one he is currently experiencing do happen, even if they seem unbelievable at first glance.
Consider that, plus the fact that it’s been expected Buchholz would eventually evolve as a starter once he grew into his stuff — that whole fractured spine thing kind of interrupted his growth as a pitcher, though.
Though strikeout rate is one of the best predictors for a pitcher’s success, I have a hard time buying Buchholz in the 27 percent area. The only pitchers that wound up there last year were Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. I would, however, buy an improvement that puts him in the 20 percent area, which is certainly something for Red Sox fans to get excited about nonetheless.
Dec 25, 2014, 8:47 AM EST
And a very special friend of HBT
Dec 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EST
A good way to finish off our Christmas Eve coverage on HardballTalk …
Dec 24, 2014, 8:04 PM EST
The sought-after 26-year-old right-hander has now officially re-signed with the Hiroshima Carp for the 2015 season, according to the Japan Times.
Dec 24, 2014, 6:17 PM EST
Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that the Rockies have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with outfielder Roger Bernadina.
Dec 24, 2014, 4:21 PM EST
A toast to my big brother George: The richest man in town. Well, except for Mr. Potter. That guy is LOADED.
Dec 24, 2014, 2:00 PM EST
No, really. The news broke on line at a Honeybaked Ham store.
Dec 24, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
Based on these results, no, we will not stick to baseball. Because you clearly don’t want us to.
Dec 24, 2014, 12:02 PM EST
Buck Showalter found a way to get value out of Young in a part-time role.
Dec 24, 2014, 11:16 AM EST
Zobrist has been a regular for the Rays since 2008.
Dec 24, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
Money don’t get everything it’s true. But what it don’t get, I can’t use
Dec 24, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
San Diego has outfielders to spare.
Dec 24, 2014, 9:14 AM EST
Dirty secret: baseball isn’t always about winning. Even when the Yankees are involved.
Dec 23, 2014, 10:59 PM EST
“NHL Live” on NBC Sports Network ended a segment Tuesday night with this time-lapse video of Nationals Park being converted from a baseball field into an ice rink for next week’s 2015 NHL Winter Classic between the Washington Capitals and visiting Chicago Blackhawks …
Dec 23, 2014, 9:44 PM EST
As first reported by Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Padres have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with first baseman Brett Wallace. The deal comes with an invitation to …
Dec 23, 2014, 8:31 PM EST
From FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal comes word that the Braves have signed 38-year-old right-handed reliever Jason Grilli to a two-year, $8 million contract with a club option for 2017 …
Dec 23, 2014, 7:58 PM EST
19-year-old infield prospect Yoan Moncada defected from his native Cuba over the summer and was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball back in mid-November, but he is still waiting for official clearance from the United States’ Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) …
Dec 23, 2014, 6:23 PM EST
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal was first to report that a deal was in place between the Cubs and veteran catcher David Ross, and now that agreement has been made official …
Dec 23, 2014, 5:17 PM EST
Minnesota adds a right-handed reliever.
Dec 23, 2014, 4:42 PM EST
Yasiel Puig is slipping, man.
Dec 23, 2014, 3:30 PM EST
It was his second positive test for a “drug of abuse.”
- Merry Christmas from HBT! 0
- THE YEAR IN REVIEW: HBT’s most commented-upon stories of the year 80
- The Yankees are treating Alex Rodriguez differently than they treated Derek Jeter. So what? 34
- Braves sign setup man Jason Grilli to two-year contract 13
- My Imaginary Hall of Fame Ballot 119
- Phil Hughes signs a three-year extension with the Twins 27
- The Padres have talked to the Phillies about Cole Hamels 23
- Why is John Smoltz a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame? 63
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. (145)
- My Imaginary Hall of Fame Ballot (119)
- Today’s specious anti-Mike Piazza-for-the-Hall-Fame argument (94)
- St. Petersburg City Council votes down deal to allow Rays to look for new stadium site (90)
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” (85)