Apr 29, 2013, 11:33 AM EDT
In honor of Bryce Harper playing his 162nd career game, here is the list of the top 12 home run hitters through their age 20 seasons:
1. Mel Ott, 61
2. Tony Conigliaro, 56
3. Alex Rodriguez, 41
4. Ken Griffey, 38
5. Frank Robinson, 38
6. Mickey Mantle, 36
7. Mike Trout, 35
8. Al Kaline, 32
9. Bryce Harper, 31
(tie) Ted Williams, 31
11. Orlando Cepeda, 25
(tie) Eddie Mathews, 25
Now, some of these players — Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams and Cepeda — actually turned 21at some point DURING the season, something Bryce Harper will not do until October.
There are a couple of points worth making here. One, Harper is on pace to hit 60 home runs this year. And while he probably won’t do that, he has to hit a more manageable 40 homers this year (31 more in the last five months) to pass Mel Ott for most home runs through age 20 season. He’s a pretty decent bet to do that.
But here’s an even more significant point, I think. Look at the 12 players. Tony Conigliaro seemed on his way to an extraordinary career until he was hit in the face by a Jack Hamilton pitch. the pitch fractured his cheek, dislocated his jaw and caused serious problems to his eye. His comeback was stirring and magnificent — he hit 36 homers in 1970 — but his vision was never the same and he was done at 26 (he did try another comeback at 30, making it back to the Majors). He goes down with Herb Score and a couple of others as the greatest “What might have beens” in baseball history.
So take away Conigliaro. And take away Trout and Harper because they are active. That leaves nine players.
All nine are either in the Hall of Fame or will be in the Hall of Fame (depending on how the voters treat A-Rod). That’s amazing to me. All nine are all-time players.
It just goes to show you that displaying this sort of brilliance as an extremely young hitter is very telling and predictive. It’s interesting. Take a look at the pitchers with the most strikeouts through age 20 (since 1901):
1. Bob Feller, 712
2. Dwight Gooden, 544
3. Bert Blyleven, 359
4. Gary Nolan, 317
5. Larry Dierker, 290
6. Mike McCormick, 287
(tie) Pete Schneider, 287
8. Chief Bender, 276
9. Felix Hernandez, 253
10. Smoky Joe Wood, 244
11. Rick Ankiel, 233
12. Walter Johnson, 231
Sort of a mixed bag, isn’t it? You have all-time greats and a few OK pitchers and some washouts. Pitcher wins through Age 20 looks more or less the same — you add Wally Bunker and Milt Pappas and Ray Sadecki, take out Walter Johnson, Rick Ankiel and King Felix. It still gives you an inconsistent mix. Pitchers get hurt: Gary Nolan did, Smoky Joe Wood did. Dwight Gooden lost his way. Rick Ankiel, well, this happened.
That sort of thing does not seem to happen as often to young hitters. Sure, they will occasionally get hurt like Conigliaro. Vada Pinson, Claudell Washington, Cesar Cedeno and a handful of other precocious young players all ran into various problems or inconsistencies along the way. But, generally speaking, brilliant young hitters stay brilliant for an extended period of time. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are obviously a long, long, long way away from becoming all-time players. But I’d bet on both of them.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
That’s some real Nattitude right there.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
Last night Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud hit a home run to left-center field, except Mariners left fielder Dustin Ackley jumped up, reached over the fence, and brought the ball back with a spectacular catch.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Non-fatal, but serious enough to where, after eight years, he is going public.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported yesterday that A’s left-hander Tommy Milone has requested a trade after being demoted to Triple-A despite plenty of success in the big leagues.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Sanchez’s numbers this season haven’t been particularly impressive, including an underwhelming 4.19 ERA and 27/17 K/BB ratio in 34 innings at Triple-A, but he was a first-round draft pick in 2010 and ranked as a consensus top-50 prospect coming into this season.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
But is it worth the cost?
Jul 22, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Oh, and thankfully there’s video.
Jul 22, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
He’s not at the top of the M’s rotation, but no contender wants to lose a pitcher.
Jul 22, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
A big lefty on the market would bring a nice return. But the Phillies aren’t putting their big lefty on the market.
Jul 22, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
I tend to think he is, but I feel like most of you disagree.
Jul 22, 2014, 6:33 AM EDT
Adam Jones smacked two homers. So did David Ortiz. Oh, and Lisa needs braces (dental plan), Lisa needs braces (dental plan).
Jul 21, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
The Rangers had high hopes when they signed outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to a seven-year, $130 million contract over the winter, but a lingering injury to his left ankle is a major reason why his first season with Texas has been a bust.
Jul 21, 2014, 10:29 PM EDT
Plenty of scouts were in attendance tonight for Cliff Lee’s first start in the majors in over two months. They likely didn’t come away impressed.
Jul 21, 2014, 9:58 PM EDT
Royals left-hander Jason Vargas underwent an appendectomy less than two weeks ago, but he could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Sunday against the Indians.
Jul 21, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
Andrelton Simmons just isn’t fair.
Jul 21, 2014, 8:48 PM EDT
Dodgers right-hander Josh Beckett is dealing with a left hip impingement, but he made it through a bullpen session Saturday with no issues and has been cleared to return Tuesday.
Jul 21, 2014, 8:01 PM EDT
X-rays on the hands of Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig came back negative.
Jul 21, 2014, 7:09 PM EDT
Veteran catcher John Buck was given his release by the Mariners earlier this month, but he didn’t stay out of a job for long.
Jul 21, 2014, 6:24 PM EDT
After a demotion to Triple-A earlier this month, Tommy Milone has asked the Athletics to trade him. He appears unlikely to get his wish.
Jul 21, 2014, 5:28 PM EDT
Jeter has been that for so, so long. Who’s next?
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 35
- Cliff Lee struggles in first start back from disabled list 13
- On the 10th anniversary of his MLB debut, let’s appreciate David Wright 29
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 36
- Odrisamer Despaigne loses his no-hitter with two outs in the eighth inning 8
- Brandon Belt headed to disabled list with concussion 5
- Cardinals are interested in David Price, but “would want a financial commitment” from him 47
- Blue Jays, Giants “taking their best shot” at Chase Utley 19
- Baseball is dying, you guys (149)
- Luke Scott released from Korean team after calling coach a “liar” and a “coward” (108)
- Watch Derek Jeter tell Joe Buck to get the heck out of the clubhouse (91)
- Adam Wainwright follows the rules and pays the price (90)
- The Astros did not sign number one overall pick Brady Aiken. This is a big deal. (90)