Apr 29, 2013, 11:33 AM EST
In honor of Bryce Harper playing his 162nd career game, here is the list of the top 12 home run hitters through their age 20 seasons:
1. Mel Ott, 61
2. Tony Conigliaro, 56
3. Alex Rodriguez, 41
4. Ken Griffey, 38
5. Frank Robinson, 38
6. Mickey Mantle, 36
7. Mike Trout, 35
8. Al Kaline, 32
9. Bryce Harper, 31
(tie) Ted Williams, 31
11. Orlando Cepeda, 25
(tie) Eddie Mathews, 25
Now, some of these players — Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams and Cepeda — actually turned 21at some point DURING the season, something Bryce Harper will not do until October.
There are a couple of points worth making here. One, Harper is on pace to hit 60 home runs this year. And while he probably won’t do that, he has to hit a more manageable 40 homers this year (31 more in the last five months) to pass Mel Ott for most home runs through age 20 season. He’s a pretty decent bet to do that.
But here’s an even more significant point, I think. Look at the 12 players. Tony Conigliaro seemed on his way to an extraordinary career until he was hit in the face by a Jack Hamilton pitch. the pitch fractured his cheek, dislocated his jaw and caused serious problems to his eye. His comeback was stirring and magnificent — he hit 36 homers in 1970 — but his vision was never the same and he was done at 26 (he did try another comeback at 30, making it back to the Majors). He goes down with Herb Score and a couple of others as the greatest “What might have beens” in baseball history.
So take away Conigliaro. And take away Trout and Harper because they are active. That leaves nine players.
All nine are either in the Hall of Fame or will be in the Hall of Fame (depending on how the voters treat A-Rod). That’s amazing to me. All nine are all-time players.
It just goes to show you that displaying this sort of brilliance as an extremely young hitter is very telling and predictive. It’s interesting. Take a look at the pitchers with the most strikeouts through age 20 (since 1901):
1. Bob Feller, 712
2. Dwight Gooden, 544
3. Bert Blyleven, 359
4. Gary Nolan, 317
5. Larry Dierker, 290
6. Mike McCormick, 287
(tie) Pete Schneider, 287
8. Chief Bender, 276
9. Felix Hernandez, 253
10. Smoky Joe Wood, 244
11. Rick Ankiel, 233
12. Walter Johnson, 231
Sort of a mixed bag, isn’t it? You have all-time greats and a few OK pitchers and some washouts. Pitcher wins through Age 20 looks more or less the same — you add Wally Bunker and Milt Pappas and Ray Sadecki, take out Walter Johnson, Rick Ankiel and King Felix. It still gives you an inconsistent mix. Pitchers get hurt: Gary Nolan did, Smoky Joe Wood did. Dwight Gooden lost his way. Rick Ankiel, well, this happened.
That sort of thing does not seem to happen as often to young hitters. Sure, they will occasionally get hurt like Conigliaro. Vada Pinson, Claudell Washington, Cesar Cedeno and a handful of other precocious young players all ran into various problems or inconsistencies along the way. But, generally speaking, brilliant young hitters stay brilliant for an extended period of time. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are obviously a long, long, long way away from becoming all-time players. But I’d bet on both of them.
Mar 1, 2015, 11:33 AM EST
From the official Twitter account of the Los Angeles Dodgers …
Mar 1, 2015, 10:33 AM EST
Minoso, a native of Cuba, batted .298/.389/.459 with 1,963 hits, 186 home runs, and 1,023 RBI in parts of 17 major league seasons split between the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, and Washington Senators.
Mar 1, 2015, 8:49 AM EST
Some highlights here from Rob Manfred’s sit-down Saturday at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference …
Feb 28, 2015, 11:45 PM EST
The Padres signed outfielder Tyson Gillies to a minor league deal, perhaps hopeful he could turn his fortunes around with a new organization.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:40 PM EST
The Diamondbacks want Yasmany Tomas to get as many at-bats as possible during spring training, so he’ll be starting at both third base and in the outfield.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:35 PM EST
It’s odd to hear Jimmy Rollins say nice things about the Mets.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:27 PM EST
The Blue Jays brought in Dayan Viciedo to hold the fort until Michael Saunders returns from his knee injury.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:25 PM EST
Ruben Tejada has been something of a lightning rod, and he recently received criticism from a former teammate and mentor.
Feb 28, 2015, 6:20 PM EST
Josh Hamilton’s punishment for using a drug of abuse may end up not being much of a punishment at all.
Feb 28, 2015, 5:28 PM EST
Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp missed more than a week down the stretch in 2012 due to pinkeye and now he’s dealing with it again.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:19 PM EST
After trading the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis as well as adding a handful of veteran free agents, the Braves have a ton of new faces in camp this spring.
Feb 28, 2015, 3:15 PM EST
Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton had his season come to an end in horrific fashion last September when he suffered facial fractures and dental damage on a hit-by-pitch.
Feb 28, 2015, 2:18 PM EST
Juan Pierre showed his sense of humor on Twitter after announcing his retirement from baseball.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:31 PM EST
I guarantee you’ll learn something.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:03 PM EST
Sale suffered the injury unloading something off the back of his truck on Friday.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:10 PM EST
Chase Headley is expected to be the team’s regular third baseman this season, so Yankees manager Joe Girardi wants if Rodriguez can be a potential backup to Mark Teixeira.
Feb 28, 2015, 11:05 AM EST
That’s a new one.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:02 AM EST
Hill, who turns 35 next month, bounced around three different organizations last year and mostly pitched in the minors.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:57 AM EST
It will be his first game action since last July 31.
Feb 27, 2015, 11:04 PM EST
The Rangers will shut down Edgar Olmos days after picking him up on a waiver claim from the Mariners.
- Blue Jays sign Dayan Viciedo to a minor league deal 7
- Chris Sale will be sidelined for three weeks with foot fracture 10
- Aramis Ramirez says 2015 will be his last year 32
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 295
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Yankees don’t plan on having to pay A-Rod’s $30 million in home run milestone bonuses 51
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (295)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training (114)
- Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada reportedly signs with the Red Sox for $31.5 million, plus $31.5 million in penalties (106)
- Brian Sabean says that California taxes are a hindrance to the Giants signing free agents (102)