Apr 29, 2013, 11:33 AM EDT
In honor of Bryce Harper playing his 162nd career game, here is the list of the top 12 home run hitters through their age 20 seasons:
1. Mel Ott, 61
2. Tony Conigliaro, 56
3. Alex Rodriguez, 41
4. Ken Griffey, 38
5. Frank Robinson, 38
6. Mickey Mantle, 36
7. Mike Trout, 35
8. Al Kaline, 32
9. Bryce Harper, 31
(tie) Ted Williams, 31
11. Orlando Cepeda, 25
(tie) Eddie Mathews, 25
Now, some of these players — Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams and Cepeda — actually turned 21at some point DURING the season, something Bryce Harper will not do until October.
There are a couple of points worth making here. One, Harper is on pace to hit 60 home runs this year. And while he probably won’t do that, he has to hit a more manageable 40 homers this year (31 more in the last five months) to pass Mel Ott for most home runs through age 20 season. He’s a pretty decent bet to do that.
But here’s an even more significant point, I think. Look at the 12 players. Tony Conigliaro seemed on his way to an extraordinary career until he was hit in the face by a Jack Hamilton pitch. the pitch fractured his cheek, dislocated his jaw and caused serious problems to his eye. His comeback was stirring and magnificent — he hit 36 homers in 1970 — but his vision was never the same and he was done at 26 (he did try another comeback at 30, making it back to the Majors). He goes down with Herb Score and a couple of others as the greatest “What might have beens” in baseball history.
So take away Conigliaro. And take away Trout and Harper because they are active. That leaves nine players.
All nine are either in the Hall of Fame or will be in the Hall of Fame (depending on how the voters treat A-Rod). That’s amazing to me. All nine are all-time players.
It just goes to show you that displaying this sort of brilliance as an extremely young hitter is very telling and predictive. It’s interesting. Take a look at the pitchers with the most strikeouts through age 20 (since 1901):
1. Bob Feller, 712
2. Dwight Gooden, 544
3. Bert Blyleven, 359
4. Gary Nolan, 317
5. Larry Dierker, 290
6. Mike McCormick, 287
(tie) Pete Schneider, 287
8. Chief Bender, 276
9. Felix Hernandez, 253
10. Smoky Joe Wood, 244
11. Rick Ankiel, 233
12. Walter Johnson, 231
Sort of a mixed bag, isn’t it? You have all-time greats and a few OK pitchers and some washouts. Pitcher wins through Age 20 looks more or less the same — you add Wally Bunker and Milt Pappas and Ray Sadecki, take out Walter Johnson, Rick Ankiel and King Felix. It still gives you an inconsistent mix. Pitchers get hurt: Gary Nolan did, Smoky Joe Wood did. Dwight Gooden lost his way. Rick Ankiel, well, this happened.
That sort of thing does not seem to happen as often to young hitters. Sure, they will occasionally get hurt like Conigliaro. Vada Pinson, Claudell Washington, Cesar Cedeno and a handful of other precocious young players all ran into various problems or inconsistencies along the way. But, generally speaking, brilliant young hitters stay brilliant for an extended period of time. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are obviously a long, long, long way away from becoming all-time players. But I’d bet on both of them.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Dontrelle Willis signed a minor league contract with the Giants in January and was officially added to the roster at Triple-A Fresno on April 12. But the veteran left-hander didn’t even last a week there.
Apr 16, 2014, 9:39 PM EDT
Astros outfield prospect George Springer grounded out sharply to shortstop in his first major league at-bat on Wednesday night. In his second trip to the plate, he made it to first base …
Apr 16, 2014, 8:54 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton is likely to be sidelined through most of May with a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb and now beat writer Jeff Fletcher at the Orange County Register reports that Kole Calhoun will miss the next 4-6 weeks with what Angels manager Mike Scioscia called a “bad ligament sprain” in his right ankle.
Apr 16, 2014, 8:01 PM EDT
Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker had to be scratched from what was supposed to be his final minor league rehab start Tuesday at Triple-A Tacoma and he headed to Seattle on Wednesday for tests. The MRI results are in.
Apr 16, 2014, 7:13 PM EDT
Braves closer Craig Kimbrel was unavailable to pitch on Monday because of soreness in his right shoulder. But it’s apparently only a minor issue and he expects to be fine going forward.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:35 PM EDT
From James Wagner of the Washington Post comes word that Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper has been scratched from the club’s starting lineup on Wednesday night against the Marlins because of tightness in his left quadriceps muscle.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:11 PM EDT
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is back in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against the White Sox after getting a cortisone shot Monday for the inflammation in his left wrist.
Apr 16, 2014, 5:04 PM EDT
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Apr 16, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly left today’s start against the Brewers after tweaking his hamstring trying to beat out an infield single in the sixth inning.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
That’s 28 strikeouts in his first three big league starts.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:34 PM EDT
Cueto set a career high for strikeouts as he tossed his third career shutout
Apr 16, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Completion is set for February 2017
Apr 16, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata just made a great catch to rob Brayan Pena of an extra-base hit, but unfortunately he slammed into an unpadded portion of the wall in Cincinnati and had to leave the game.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:33 PM EDT
You can spend all you want on a 30 year-old free agent, but be careful how much you spend on an 16-year-old prospect.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
The two most dominant pitchers in the AL face off tonight. Given their ages, their contract status and their presence in the same division, expect this to grow into a wonderful rivalry over the coming years.
Apr 16, 2014, 1:33 PM EDT
The Dodgers have an embarrassment of outfield riches.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:38 PM EDT
I don’t know the real Brian Wilson, but even if this isn’t it, remember: we are what we pretend to be.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:16 PM EDT
Nick Franklin lost his job to Robinson Cano, but now he’s headed back to Seattle.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:32 AM EDT
Kicked off by an anecdote you probably won’t believe.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
To celebrate the 25th anniversary of “Seinfeld” starting on NBC the Mets’ Single-A affiliate, the Brooklyn Cyclones of the New York-Penn League, are hosting a “Seinfeld Night” at the ballpark on July 5.
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (241)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (130)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (108)
- Must-Click Link: Yasiel Puig’s harrowing journey to the United States (95)