May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Oct 25, 2014, 3:29 PM EDT
Wright is expected to be re-evaluated in a couple of weeks and hopes to avoid surgery.
Oct 25, 2014, 2:27 PM EDT
Sternberg has reportedly had discussions “with wealthy Wall Street associates” about moving the Rays to Montreal.
Oct 25, 2014, 1:31 PM EDT
Set aside a few minutes to watch this.
Oct 25, 2014, 12:29 PM EDT
The Pirates also designated right-handers John Axford and Jeanmar Gomez for assignment.
Oct 25, 2014, 12:01 PM EDT
We learned yesterday that Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera underwent surgery on Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right ankle and repair a stress fracture to the navicular bone in his foot. Everyone was caught off guard by the extent of his injuries.
Oct 25, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
After Joe Maddon stepped down as manager of the Rays yesterday, there was plenty of speculation about what his next move could be, but we didn’t hear much about who could replace him in Tampa Bay. Look for that to change soon.
Oct 25, 2014, 10:16 AM EDT
Yes, it would have been closer had Blanco continued to run, but it was a heck of a play by Perez.
Oct 25, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
Ned Yost was hoping that Jarrod Dyson made an out last night. Really.
Oct 25, 2014, 8:56 AM EDT
After losing Game 1, the Royals have responded with two straight victories to grab a lead in the series. Can the Giants answer? That’s the big question going into Game 4.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:51 PM EDT
Ryan Vogelsong will start as scheduled in Game 4 of the World Series against the Royals. Madison Bumgarner will not pitch on short rest.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:27 PM EDT
The Royals’ bullpen was solid, allowing only two base runners in four innings to preserve Jeremy Guthrie’s win in Game 3 of the World Series against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:02 PM EDT
Brandon Finnegan achieved a rather rare feat with his first appearance of the World Series in Game 3 on Friday night against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:55 PM EDT
Cole Hamels is updating his 20-team no-trade list, which will dictate if and how the Phillies shop him over the off-season.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Giants fought back in the bottom of the sixth inning with two runs, making it a one-run game again. The Royals lead 3-2 heading into the seventh inning.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
The Royals extended their lead over the Giants to 3-0 thanks to an Alex Gordon RBI double and an Eric Hosmer RBI single in the top of the sixth inning of Game 3 of the World Series.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:50 PM EDT
The Twins are expected to consider free agent manager Joe Maddon for their managerial vacancy.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:08 PM EDT
The Royals have a narrow lead through the first three innings of Game 3 of the World Series against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 8:45 PM EDT
Victor Martinez is going to use his monster 2014 season to attempt to get a four-year deal over the off-season.
Bruce Bochy, Dave Righetti have discussed using Madison Bumgarner on short rest if Giants lose Game 3
Oct 24, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The Giants have kicked around the idea of using Madison Bumgarner on short rest if they lose Game 3 of the World Series against the Royals.
Oct 24, 2014, 7:43 PM EDT
No word yet on the exact role Towers would fill in Cincinnati.
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- Dave Dombrowski on Miguel Cabrera: “It’s worse than what we ever would have anticipated” 19
- World Series Reset: Can the Giants even things up? 4
- Behind strong bullpen, Royals edge Giants 3-2 to take a 2-1 World Series lead 34
- Paul Konerko, Jimmy Rollins named co-winners of the Roberto Clemente Award 4
- The greatest trick this Royals bullpen ever pulled … 3
- Adam Wainwright underwent elbow surgery to “trim” cartilage 13
- World Series, Game 3: Royals vs. Giants lineups 1
- Shocker! Joe Maddon to opt out of his contract and leave the Rays (143)
- Erroneous Narrative Alert: no, the Giants are not a “gritty,” anti-stats organization (122)
- Pedro Martinez has some opinions about who the new “face of baseball” is (112)
- PANTY RAID! Homeland Security agents confiscate unlicensed Kansas City Royals underwear (109)
- The World Series ratings are low. So what? (101)