May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:35 AM EDT
Kaiser Carlile was retrieving a bat and was wearing a helmet.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:08 AM EDT
Ventura went after the Jays’ slugger on Twitter, but then deleted the tweets.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:42 AM EDT
120 of the 650 voters will be cut from the rolls.
Aug 3, 2015, 5:00 AM EDT
Lots of walkoffs, lots of guys throwing at other guys and, oh yeah, the Mets are in first place.
Aug 2, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Kyle Lohse may have lost his spot in the Brewers’ rotation as his struggles continued on Sunday against the Cubs.
Aug 2, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Adeiny Hechavarria prevented the Marlins from getting swept by the Padres on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Lucas Duda has no respect for familial ties.
Aug 2, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Red Sox pitching prospect Henry Owens will debut at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. No pressure, kid.
Aug 2, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Dan Haren sounds pretty set on retiring after the season, but left open the possibility he’d pitch beyond 2015.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
It’s safe to say the Royals and Blue Jays won’t be getting dinner with each other anytime soon.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
Brandon Morrow will get a second opinion on his right shoulder, as his injury woes persist.
Aug 2, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
A.J. Burnett is prepared to pitch through an elbow injury if necessary.
Aug 2, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
The Blue Jays and Royals weren’t very friendly to each other on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 3:56 PM EDT
Cincinnati hosted one of two benches-clearing incidents in baseball on Sunday.
Aug 2, 2015, 3:35 PM EDT
Injured Phillies second baseman Chase Utley is a potential August acquisition consideration for the Cubs.
Aug 2, 2015, 2:45 PM EDT
Brad Ausmus has a candidate to handle save situations following the Joakim Soria trade.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:55 PM EDT
Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton might not return in mid-August as originally anticipated.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:01 PM EDT
Red Sox starter Rick Porcello heads to the disabled list with a triceps injury.
Aug 2, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Here comes the Boom?
Aug 2, 2015, 11:14 AM EDT
I think it may be!
- Yordano Ventura calls Jose Bautista a “nobody” and accuses him of stealing signs 15
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 33
- The benches cleared in Toronto, too 77
- The Reds’ and Pirates’ benches cleared after Brandon Phillips was hit with a pitch 57
- Reminder: even though the trade deadline has passed, trades can still happen 13
- Settling the Scores: Saturday’s results 36
- Lucas Duda’s last eight hits have been home runs 11
- Report: Larry Lucchino stepping down as president and CEO of the Red Sox 32
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (205)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (113)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (92)