May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:34 PM EDT
Garcia, 38, last pitched in the majors in 2013 as a member of the Orioles and Braves.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon figure to handle catching duties for the Red Sox in the early part of the season.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
This day has mostly been about who will not be on the Cubs’ Opening Day roster, but it was announced this evening that reliever Phil Coke has earned a spot on the team.
Mar 30, 2015, 9:15 PM EDT
In a decision that was all but inevitable after news of Jaime Garcia’s renewed shoulder issues, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny confirmed today that right-hander Carlos Martinez has won the fifth spot in the starting rotation.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks will go into the season with a starting rotation of Josh Collmenter, Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Trevor Cahill, and Chase Anderson.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:09 PM EDT
The two sides first discussed the possibility prior to Polanco’s promotion to the majors last year.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:19 PM EDT
Rendon suffered what was termed as a minor MCL sprain in his left knee on March 9 and continues to feel discomfort.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
That Nationals don’t need another injury. But they may have one.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
I’d still be surprised if they went down that road — and I think it’s a bad road to go down — but Tony Clark is leaving the option on the table.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:10 PM EDT
Everth Cabrera, who was the Padres’ starting shortstop for most of the past three seasons, looks likely to fill in for Hardy.
Mar 30, 2015, 4:47 PM EDT
Downs signed a minor-league deal in mid-December.
Mar 30, 2015, 4:32 PM EDT
The Cubs are playing ersatz baseball, you see. And this is the, um, apogee of something.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:50 PM EDT
In exchange for Matt den Dekker.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:36 PM EDT
Rodon ranked as a consensus top-20 prospect and has top-of-the-rotation upside, so expect to see him in Chicago by the All-Star break.
Mar 30, 2015, 2:33 PM EDT
He just signed on March 9, but after three awful appearances, the M’s have cut bait.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:49 PM EDT
Carlos Martinez time in the Cardinals’ rotation?
Mar 30, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
He posted a 3.33 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres in a limited role, logging a total of just 54 innings with a 51/33 K/BB ratio.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:07 PM EDT
Service time manipulation, the depth chart and hacktastic tendencies mean that the future is not quite here for three of the Cubs’ top prospects.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
Maholm has indicated that he wants to continue starting, which likely sealed his fate in Cincinnati and limits his options going forward.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Baseball technically has a rule against “fraternization.” It’s a dumb rule.
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