May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Apr 19, 2014, 3:24 AM EDT
Can’t someone please write these things down so we can all keep track?
Apr 19, 2014, 12:10 AM EDT
One of baseball’s older cliches came true on Friday night thanks to Martin Maldonado.
Apr 18, 2014, 11:55 PM EDT
The Blue Jays get a shortstop back, but lose their designated hitter.
Apr 18, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Jeff Samardzija unselfishly wants to get paid. It’s not as crazy as it sounds.
Apr 18, 2014, 10:50 PM EDT
Giancarlo Stanton does Giancarlo Stanton things.
Apr 18, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
After consistent battles with his control, Donnie Veal ran out of chances with the White Sox.
Apr 18, 2014, 9:55 PM EDT
Jason Bartlett will call it quits after playing shortstop in the big leagues over ten seasons.
Apr 18, 2014, 9:19 PM EDT
One of the most unlikely pitchers to throw a no-hitter is working on a no-hitter.
Apr 18, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
The Brewers got their first round pick from the 2006 draft back.
Apr 18, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks will get some power back in their lineup as Cody Ross returns.
Apr 18, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
Ryan Roberts wasn’t hitting; Brock Holt was, so the Red Sox decided to make a change with Will Middlebrooks still recovering from an injury.
Apr 18, 2014, 6:52 PM EDT
The Pirates and Mets each address their problems with an Ike Davis trade.
Apr 18, 2014, 6:10 PM EDT
Hanley Ramirez only spent one day out of the lineup after being hit in the hand with a fastball.
Apr 18, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
Manny Machado could soon take the next step towards returning to third base for the Orioles.
Apr 18, 2014, 4:48 PM EDT
Left-hander Sean Doolittle and the A’s have agreed to a long-term contract that runs through at least 2018, with team options for 2019 and 2020.
Apr 18, 2014, 4:31 PM EDT
Don’t look at me that way. It’s late afternoon on a Friday that a lot of people have off work. There’s a Reds-Cubs game one. Motivation is kinda hard to come by. Besides, this is kinda mesmerizing.
Apr 18, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT
This morning I wrote about how the Rangers had to be considering removing Tanner Scheppers from the rotation given his awful performance through four starts and now they’ve placed him on the disabled list with elbow inflammation.
Apr 18, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
Dat Dude back pain.
Apr 18, 2014, 3:32 PM EDT
Out since February with a strained tendon in his middle finger, Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma threw a simulated game today without any problems and has been cleared to begin a minor-league rehab assignment.
Apr 18, 2014, 2:28 PM EDT
- Giancarlo Stanton sends the Marlins to victory with a walk-off grand slam 14
- Jason Bartlett will retire after 10 years in the big leagues 6
- Pirates acquire Ike Davis in a trade with the Mets 39
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 49
- VIDEO: The Yankees turned a triple play against the Rays 24
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (244)
- “They Don’t Know Henry” (167)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (112)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (96)