May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Oct 1, 2014, 9:08 PM EDT
Marlins ace Jose Fernandez picked up a baseball on Wednesday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on May 16.
Oct 1, 2014, 8:13 PM EDT
The procedure went as planned and d’Arnaud is expected to be fully recovered by the start of spring training next February.
Oct 1, 2014, 7:19 PM EDT
Punto hit just .207 with two homers and a .589 OPS in 73 games.
Oct 1, 2014, 6:33 PM EDT
Jason Vargas, who spent last season in the Angels’ rotation before signing with the Royals as a free agent, will start Game 1 for Kansas City.
Oct 1, 2014, 6:19 PM EDT
The Angels have announced their rotation for the ALDS against the Royals.
Oct 1, 2014, 5:21 PM EDT
Tony Cruz gets the nod as Yadier Molina’s backup.
Oct 1, 2014, 5:12 PM EDT
Welp, there’s two reasons he’ll never accept an invitation to my house.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
ALDS manager drama!
Oct 1, 2014, 4:34 PM EDT
The Tuesday wild card game got ratings 14% higher than last year’s Tuesday wild card game.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:04 PM EDT
Not a ton of surprises. Gaby Sanchez in at first over Ike Davis because of the lefty on the hill. Otherwise, play ball.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Ron Gardenhire was fired Monday after 13 seasons, the last four of which have seen the Twins lose 90 or more games.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
Somehow, it all seemed to tie this strange 2014 season together in one fitting package, though the end result wasn’t what anyone in green and gold wanted.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Thanks for sharing, Aubrey.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:48 PM EDT
Adam Wainwright will start Game 1 against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:36 PM EDT
The Royals, like just about every other team in baseball, have an analytics department. Apologies if that messes with your preconceptions.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT
At least he got to pitch this season. That was fun.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT
The Royals may not have won the AL Wild Card if not for the confounding decisions of manager Ned Yost.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:47 PM EDT
He hit just .229 with a .659 OPS in 67 games after June 1 and batted .193 in September.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:34 PM EDT
But there’s a tale of bribery involved in all of this too.
- Angels announce ALDS rotation: Jered Weaver in Game 1, Matt Shoemaker for Game 2 2
- Wild Card Game: Giants vs. Pirates lineups 4
- The beauty of belief 41
- MLB to test new pace-of-play rules in the Arizona Fall League — including a pitch clock 44
- Playoff Reset: The National League Wild Card Game 15
- Video: Salvador Perez walks off Royals in Wild Card Game 3
- Small ball prevails … in a 9-8 game 25
- Royals complete thrilling comeback to defeat A’s in the American League Wild Card Game 75
- Hunter Pence dropped a bunch of F-bombs in his postgame speech. Good. (116)
- Barry Bonds discovered to be “glassing” — it’s just as bad as you think (90)
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights (85)
- Ned Yost on the sixth inning and his bullpen usage: “its just one of those things” (81)
- Previewing the 2014 Playoffs (80)