May 11, 2013, 6:45 PM EDT
MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.
Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.
Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?
Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:
Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.
Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)
The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.
Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).
Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.
Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:19 PM EDT
The Yankees are reportedly considering a reunion with right-hander Ian Kennedy.
Jul 24, 2014, 11:18 PM EDT
Jonathan Papelbon was booed by Phillies fans this afternoon, but it didn’t bother him. In fact, he says bring it on.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
Chad Qualls quietly owns a 1.78 ERA this season. The Astros are reluctant to deal him.
Jul 24, 2014, 9:25 PM EDT
Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel tossed a baseball to a heckler during today’s game against the Athletics. And the ball contained a clever message.
Jul 24, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
When the Astros failed to agree to terms with No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken earlier this month, many speculated that the next step would be a grievance against the team from the MLBPA. That’s exactly what has happened.
Jul 24, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
The Mariners brought back Kendrys Morales in a deal with the Twins today, but they aren’t done attempting to upgrade.
Jul 24, 2014, 7:09 PM EDT
The Phillies appear ready to move on from Ryan Howard.
Jul 24, 2014, 6:31 PM EDT
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman continues to stay busy.
Jul 24, 2014, 6:13 PM EDT
Zach Putnam has had a share of the closer role with the White Sox in recent weeks, but now he’s headed to the 15-day disabled list due to right shoulder inflammation.
Jul 24, 2014, 5:47 PM EDT
Before the injury Correa was having an excellent season, hitting .325 with 20 steals in 62 games at high Single-A as a 19-year-old.
Jul 24, 2014, 5:32 PM EDT
It’s been bad in Philly. Is it starting to get ugly?
Jul 24, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT
Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka is supposed to rest for six weeks before doctors determine if he needs Tommy John elbow surgery, but 10 days into the process things aren’t going well.
Jul 24, 2014, 4:49 PM EDT
Jul 24, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
Frank Thomas is headed to the Hall of Fame thanks to his legendary batting eye.
Jul 24, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Everyone has a gift. This is my gift. I shall now share it with you.
Jul 24, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
According to K-HOU television in Houston the 46-year-old Knoblauch has been charged with assault of a family member, Cheri Knoblauch, whom he divorced in 2012.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:51 PM EDT
Kendrys Morales had a good first week for the Twins after sitting out the first two months of the season and then signing a one-year, $7.5 million deal in June, but he’s been horrendous since then while hitting .209 with one homer and a .524 OPS in 33 games.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:49 PM EDT
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Dan Haren finished last season strong for the Nationals, signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers this offseason, and got off to a nice start in Los Angeles.
Jul 24, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
And it provides us with an opportunity to think about what it means to be a Hall of Fame manager.
- MLBPA files grievance against Astros in regard to draft pick situation 16
- The eyes have it: Thomas’ greatness built on patience 11
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams 182
- Mariners re-acquire Kendrys Morales from Twins for Stephen Pryor 21
- A’s designate $10 million reliever Jim Johnson for assignment 34
- Everything you need to know about next week’s trade deadline 35
- Impending free agent Jon Lester won’t talk contract with the Red Sox until after the season 19
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (183)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (162)
- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres (108)
- Who is the next Face of Baseball? (97)
- David Ortiz passes Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list — is he a Hall of Famer? (92)