May 27, 2013, 2:14 PM EDT
A lot of people say that Memorial Day is when you can stop saying “it’s too early” and that the results are finally significant. Some people say Mother’s Day, some a bit later than Memorial Day, but I think most people think of Memorial Day as the time of the season when who is good and who is bad can finally be known for real.
Joe Sheehan notes today, however, that Memorial Day is no longer significant for those purposes:
Just go back a year. None of the four AL teams that led their divisions on the morning of Memorial Day (the AL East featured a two-way tie) would go on to win them. Two would meet in the Coin Flip Game, two others would miss the postseason entirely. Two AL playoff teams were under .500 at the time, and the A’s were nowhere on anyone’s radar. Go back another year, and it’s much the same: half the teams leading divisions would win them, half wouldn’t. MLB has worked very hard over the past 20 years to build a system that allows for maximum mobility between seasons, and they’ve created one that also allows for substantial mobility within them.
Old habits are hard to quit, and I figure that people will still be calling Memorial Day some sort of bellwether for years to come, but the wild card and attendant expansion has killed that, kids.
That bit of knowledge from Joe, you should know, comes from his newsletter, to which you should subscribe. He writes the equivalent of five big, beefy columns a week, they come straight to your inbox. For under $20 through January of next year. Definitely check it out.
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