Jul 3, 2013, 6:26 PM EST
The reigning MVP has some heavy-hitting competition this year. Let’s see if he can hold them off.
AL OPS leaders:
1.136 – Miguel Cabrera: .368/.458/.678, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 323 AB
1.126 – Chris Davis: .329/.405/.721, 31 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB in 301 AB
1.102 – David Ortiz: .320/.406/.607, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB in 244 AB
.927 – Mike Trout: .311/.388/.539, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 20 SB in 334 AB
.920 – Evan Longoria: .301/.371/.549, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 306 AB
.920 – Josh Donaldson: .318/.386/.534, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 305 AB
.913 – Jason Kipnis: .299/.385/.529, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 19 SB in 278 AB
.908 – Robinson Cano: .295/.372/.537, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB in 315 AB
.887 – Edwin Encarnacion: .270/.350/.537, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 315 AB
.878 – Joe Mauer: .318/.402/.475, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB in 305 AB
.846 – Dustin Pedroia: .321/.404/.441, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 12 SB in 324 AB
.841 – Howie Kendrick: .323/.367/.475, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 316 AB
.839 – Manny Machado: .321/.352/.488, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 6 SB in 361 AB
Here are the WAR top 10s:
5.4 – Miguel Cabrera
4.6 – Mike Trout
4.6 – Chris Davis
4.5 – Evan Longoria
4.2 – Manny Machado
3.9 – Josh Donaldson
3.5 – Jose Bautista
3.5 – Joe Mauer
3.4 – Derek Holland
3.4 – Max Scherzer
3.4 – Felix Hernandez
Now, I’m all for considering pitchers for MVP awards, but three months into this year, I don’t think any pitcher besides maybe Scherzer is in the mix for even a down ballot vote. B-ref WAR may disagree, but I don’t believe any AL starters have been as valuable as Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey in the NL.
If the BBWAA held the vote today, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Cabrera would win in a landslide, with Davis finishing second. And that’s justifiable. Cabrera ranks first in the AL in average, second in homers and first in RBI. Davis is second in average, first in homers and second in RBI. They’re one-two in OPS as well, and it’s close there. However, Cabrera’s extra 53 points of OBP are worth a lot more than Davis’s 48 points of slugging.
Defense brings the two only a bit closer together; I think Davis has a bit more value as a decent first baseman than Cabrera does as a poor third baseman. But it’s not a big margin. Cabrera’s ballpark is also a bit tougher than Davis’s, so I think it’s pretty clear that Cabrera comes out ahead of Davis.
That leaves Trout and Machado as the competition. There are two big differences in the Trout vs. Cabrera battle this year. First, the offensive gap is much larger. Last year, Cabrera edged Trout by a mere 36 points of OPS (.999 to .963). This year, it’s a 200-point margin. The other difference is that Trout’s defensive numbers are way down this year. B-ref rates him as below average, while Fangraphs has him right around average. My eyes tell me that Trout truly did struggle defensively in April, but that he’s been much better of late. Regardless, his defense and baserunning aren’t close to making up the offensive gap this year.
That leaves Machado, whose case is built on his remarkable defensive numbers. Fangraphs says he’s been worth a win and a half, making him baseball’s most valuable defensive player so far. B-ref has him at 2 1/2 wins, more than a win ahead of anyone else in the AL.
I’m pretty skeptical of B-ref’s accounting there. Machado is an excellent third baseman. Actually, he’s an excellent shortstop playing a position for which he’s overqualified. But 2 1/2 wins seems excessive. I have a hard time believing that a player who gets three balls hit his way per game can be worth 25 extra runs in half of a season. Fangraphs’ math makes him the AL’s fifth most valuable player, which sounds about right to me. For all of those wonderful doubles, he ranks only 16th in the AL in OPS and 26th in OBP. He’s third in outs made.
After those four, it’s mostly more third basemen and second basemen vying for spots. It shows how down of a year it’s been for AL outfielders; Trout is the only one in the top 10 in OPS.
AL MVP picks
Mar 1, 2015, 8:49 AM EST
Some highlights here from Rob Manfred’s sit-down Saturday at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference …
Feb 28, 2015, 11:45 PM EST
The Padres signed outfielder Tyson Gillies to a minor league deal, perhaps hopeful he could turn his fortunes around with a new organization.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:40 PM EST
The Diamondbacks want Yasmany Tomas to get as many at-bats as possible during spring training, so he’ll be starting at both third base and in the outfield.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:35 PM EST
It’s odd to hear Jimmy Rollins say nice things about the Mets.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:27 PM EST
The Blue Jays brought in Dayan Viciedo to hold the fort until Michael Saunders returns from his knee injury.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:25 PM EST
Ruben Tejada has been something of a lightning rod, and he recently received criticism from a former teammate and mentor.
Feb 28, 2015, 6:20 PM EST
Josh Hamilton’s punishment for using a drug of abuse may end up not being much of a punishment at all.
Feb 28, 2015, 5:28 PM EST
Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp missed more than a week down the stretch in 2012 due to pinkeye and now he’s dealing with it again.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:19 PM EST
After trading the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis as well as adding a handful of veteran free agents, the Braves have a ton of new faces in camp this spring.
Feb 28, 2015, 3:15 PM EST
Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton had his season come to an end in horrific fashion last September when he suffered facial fractures and dental damage on a hit-by-pitch.
Feb 28, 2015, 2:18 PM EST
Juan Pierre showed his sense of humor on Twitter after announcing his retirement from baseball.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:31 PM EST
I guarantee you’ll learn something.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:03 PM EST
Sale suffered the injury unloading something off the back of his truck on Friday.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:10 PM EST
Chase Headley is expected to be the team’s regular third baseman this season, so Yankees manager Joe Girardi wants if Rodriguez can be a potential backup to Mark Teixeira.
Feb 28, 2015, 11:05 AM EST
That’s a new one.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:02 AM EST
Hill, who turns 35 next month, bounced around three different organizations last year and mostly pitched in the minors.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:57 AM EST
It will be his first game action since last July 31.
Feb 27, 2015, 11:04 PM EST
The Rangers will shut down Edgar Olmos days after picking him up on a waiver claim from the Mariners.
Feb 27, 2015, 10:55 PM EST
Eury Perez is the early favorite to take over in center field while Melvin Upton recovers from a foot injury.
Feb 27, 2015, 10:05 PM EST
New Twins manager Paul Molitor cracked down on electronics usage in his first address to the full squad at spring training.
- Blue Jays sign Dayan Viciedo to a minor league deal 6
- Chris Sale will be sidelined for three weeks with foot fracture 10
- Aramis Ramirez says 2015 will be his last year 31
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 295
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Yankees don’t plan on having to pay A-Rod’s $30 million in home run milestone bonuses 51
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (295)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training (114)
- Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada reportedly signs with the Red Sox for $31.5 million, plus $31.5 million in penalties (106)
- Brian Sabean says that California taxes are a hindrance to the Giants signing free agents (102)