Jul 3, 2013, 6:26 PM EDT
The reigning MVP has some heavy-hitting competition this year. Let’s see if he can hold them off.
AL OPS leaders:
1.136 – Miguel Cabrera: .368/.458/.678, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 323 AB
1.126 – Chris Davis: .329/.405/.721, 31 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB in 301 AB
1.102 – David Ortiz: .320/.406/.607, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB in 244 AB
.927 – Mike Trout: .311/.388/.539, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 20 SB in 334 AB
.920 – Evan Longoria: .301/.371/.549, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 306 AB
.920 – Josh Donaldson: .318/.386/.534, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 305 AB
.913 – Jason Kipnis: .299/.385/.529, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 19 SB in 278 AB
.908 – Robinson Cano: .295/.372/.537, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB in 315 AB
.887 – Edwin Encarnacion: .270/.350/.537, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 315 AB
.878 – Joe Mauer: .318/.402/.475, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB in 305 AB
.846 – Dustin Pedroia: .321/.404/.441, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 12 SB in 324 AB
.841 – Howie Kendrick: .323/.367/.475, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 316 AB
.839 – Manny Machado: .321/.352/.488, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 6 SB in 361 AB
Here are the WAR top 10s:
5.4 – Miguel Cabrera
4.6 – Mike Trout
4.6 – Chris Davis
4.5 – Evan Longoria
4.2 – Manny Machado
3.9 – Josh Donaldson
3.5 – Jose Bautista
3.5 – Joe Mauer
3.4 – Derek Holland
3.4 – Max Scherzer
3.4 – Felix Hernandez
Now, I’m all for considering pitchers for MVP awards, but three months into this year, I don’t think any pitcher besides maybe Scherzer is in the mix for even a down ballot vote. B-ref WAR may disagree, but I don’t believe any AL starters have been as valuable as Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey in the NL.
If the BBWAA held the vote today, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Cabrera would win in a landslide, with Davis finishing second. And that’s justifiable. Cabrera ranks first in the AL in average, second in homers and first in RBI. Davis is second in average, first in homers and second in RBI. They’re one-two in OPS as well, and it’s close there. However, Cabrera’s extra 53 points of OBP are worth a lot more than Davis’s 48 points of slugging.
Defense brings the two only a bit closer together; I think Davis has a bit more value as a decent first baseman than Cabrera does as a poor third baseman. But it’s not a big margin. Cabrera’s ballpark is also a bit tougher than Davis’s, so I think it’s pretty clear that Cabrera comes out ahead of Davis.
That leaves Trout and Machado as the competition. There are two big differences in the Trout vs. Cabrera battle this year. First, the offensive gap is much larger. Last year, Cabrera edged Trout by a mere 36 points of OPS (.999 to .963). This year, it’s a 200-point margin. The other difference is that Trout’s defensive numbers are way down this year. B-ref rates him as below average, while Fangraphs has him right around average. My eyes tell me that Trout truly did struggle defensively in April, but that he’s been much better of late. Regardless, his defense and baserunning aren’t close to making up the offensive gap this year.
That leaves Machado, whose case is built on his remarkable defensive numbers. Fangraphs says he’s been worth a win and a half, making him baseball’s most valuable defensive player so far. B-ref has him at 2 1/2 wins, more than a win ahead of anyone else in the AL.
I’m pretty skeptical of B-ref’s accounting there. Machado is an excellent third baseman. Actually, he’s an excellent shortstop playing a position for which he’s overqualified. But 2 1/2 wins seems excessive. I have a hard time believing that a player who gets three balls hit his way per game can be worth 25 extra runs in half of a season. Fangraphs’ math makes him the AL’s fifth most valuable player, which sounds about right to me. For all of those wonderful doubles, he ranks only 16th in the AL in OPS and 26th in OBP. He’s third in outs made.
After those four, it’s mostly more third basemen and second basemen vying for spots. It shows how down of a year it’s been for AL outfielders; Trout is the only one in the top 10 in OPS.
AL MVP picks
Mar 31, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
Chavez appeared in 80 games for the Mariners last season.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
It’s supposedly just an arm cramp, but Brad Ausmus isn’t ruling out the DL.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
A long-overdue measure will, apparently, soon be in place.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
Wright had a rough spring, allowing 11 runs in eight appearances.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
With this team, they’ll need it.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
Petricka saved 14 games with a 2.96 ERA and 55/33 K/BB ratio in 73 innings last season.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
“I’m encouraged by it, and we’ll see how it carries over into the season.”
Mar 31, 2015, 11:33 AM EDT
But most people can afford tickets or are paid to play the games are decidedly not blue collar.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
He got the nod over Mark Buehrle.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:02 AM EDT
Jenna and I talk about the Mariners’ dynamite pitching staff, Mike Trout’s need of some support and when the Astros will finally break into the picture.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Probably destined for a part-time gig.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
The Phillies outfield is gonna be a train wreck.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Street is without an agent, representing himself, and has said he won’t negotiate after Opening Day.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
There is still a lot of time before anything can happen, but it’s looking less and less likely that the Rays will stay in Tampa Bay.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:25 AM EDT
Really, are there any Mets fans who actually care what Wilpon has to say at this point?
Mar 31, 2015, 7:49 AM EDT
Some people have argued that maybe a Kris Bryant/MLBPA lawsuit is not as silly as some of us think. I’m not sure I’m buying that.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:34 PM EDT
Garcia, 38, last pitched in the majors in 2013 as a member of the Orioles and Braves.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon figure to handle catching duties for the Red Sox in the early part of the season.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
This day has mostly been about who will not be on the Cubs’ Opening Day roster, but it was announced this evening that reliever Phil Coke has earned a spot on the team.
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- 2015 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks 8
- 2015 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays 69
- Mariners prospect Victor Sanchez has died 26
- 2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox 15
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? 88
- 2015 Preview: Atlanta Braves 15
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” 118
- Ex-Cardinals outfielder Curt Ford was assaulted in St. Louis and told to “go back to Ferguson” (122)
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (118)
- Rob Manfred says it would be hard to reinstate Pete Rose in a limited way (89)
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? (88)
- The MLBPA releases a statement on Kris Bryant, mentions possible litigation (87)