Jul 3, 2013, 6:26 PM EDT
The reigning MVP has some heavy-hitting competition this year. Let’s see if he can hold them off.
AL OPS leaders:
1.136 – Miguel Cabrera: .368/.458/.678, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 323 AB
1.126 – Chris Davis: .329/.405/.721, 31 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB in 301 AB
1.102 – David Ortiz: .320/.406/.607, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB in 244 AB
.927 – Mike Trout: .311/.388/.539, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 20 SB in 334 AB
.920 – Evan Longoria: .301/.371/.549, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 306 AB
.920 – Josh Donaldson: .318/.386/.534, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 305 AB
.913 – Jason Kipnis: .299/.385/.529, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 19 SB in 278 AB
.908 – Robinson Cano: .295/.372/.537, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB in 315 AB
.887 – Edwin Encarnacion: .270/.350/.537, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 315 AB
.878 – Joe Mauer: .318/.402/.475, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB in 305 AB
.846 – Dustin Pedroia: .321/.404/.441, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 12 SB in 324 AB
.841 – Howie Kendrick: .323/.367/.475, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 316 AB
.839 – Manny Machado: .321/.352/.488, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 6 SB in 361 AB
Here are the WAR top 10s:
5.4 – Miguel Cabrera
4.6 – Mike Trout
4.6 – Chris Davis
4.5 – Evan Longoria
4.2 – Manny Machado
3.9 – Josh Donaldson
3.5 – Jose Bautista
3.5 – Joe Mauer
3.4 – Derek Holland
3.4 – Max Scherzer
3.4 – Felix Hernandez
Now, I’m all for considering pitchers for MVP awards, but three months into this year, I don’t think any pitcher besides maybe Scherzer is in the mix for even a down ballot vote. B-ref WAR may disagree, but I don’t believe any AL starters have been as valuable as Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey in the NL.
If the BBWAA held the vote today, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Cabrera would win in a landslide, with Davis finishing second. And that’s justifiable. Cabrera ranks first in the AL in average, second in homers and first in RBI. Davis is second in average, first in homers and second in RBI. They’re one-two in OPS as well, and it’s close there. However, Cabrera’s extra 53 points of OBP are worth a lot more than Davis’s 48 points of slugging.
Defense brings the two only a bit closer together; I think Davis has a bit more value as a decent first baseman than Cabrera does as a poor third baseman. But it’s not a big margin. Cabrera’s ballpark is also a bit tougher than Davis’s, so I think it’s pretty clear that Cabrera comes out ahead of Davis.
That leaves Trout and Machado as the competition. There are two big differences in the Trout vs. Cabrera battle this year. First, the offensive gap is much larger. Last year, Cabrera edged Trout by a mere 36 points of OPS (.999 to .963). This year, it’s a 200-point margin. The other difference is that Trout’s defensive numbers are way down this year. B-ref rates him as below average, while Fangraphs has him right around average. My eyes tell me that Trout truly did struggle defensively in April, but that he’s been much better of late. Regardless, his defense and baserunning aren’t close to making up the offensive gap this year.
That leaves Machado, whose case is built on his remarkable defensive numbers. Fangraphs says he’s been worth a win and a half, making him baseball’s most valuable defensive player so far. B-ref has him at 2 1/2 wins, more than a win ahead of anyone else in the AL.
I’m pretty skeptical of B-ref’s accounting there. Machado is an excellent third baseman. Actually, he’s an excellent shortstop playing a position for which he’s overqualified. But 2 1/2 wins seems excessive. I have a hard time believing that a player who gets three balls hit his way per game can be worth 25 extra runs in half of a season. Fangraphs’ math makes him the AL’s fifth most valuable player, which sounds about right to me. For all of those wonderful doubles, he ranks only 16th in the AL in OPS and 26th in OBP. He’s third in outs made.
After those four, it’s mostly more third basemen and second basemen vying for spots. It shows how down of a year it’s been for AL outfielders; Trout is the only one in the top 10 in OPS.
AL MVP picks
Jul 28, 2015, 9:19 AM EDT
Or they’re making a push to make the Dodgers’ life complicated. Either way.
Jul 28, 2015, 9:10 AM EDT
The trade happened just after the game. Did Rockies ownership consult Tulowitzki on it, as they said they would?
Jul 28, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
They could’ve topped what Toronto gave Colorado for Troy Tulowitzki. Heck, most teams could’ve. Why didn’t they?
Jul 28, 2015, 7:23 AM EDT
Kris Bryant walked the Rockies off and then the Rockies sent Troy Tulowitzki off.
Jul 28, 2015, 3:19 AM EDT
Breaking down the Blue Jays-Rockies blockbuster.
Jul 28, 2015, 12:34 AM EDT
The Blue Jays have reportedly pulled off a stunner, acquiring Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies.
Jul 27, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
We know that the Dodgers are likely to add a pitcher or two before Friday’s non-waiver trade deadline, but could they also deal Yasiel Puig in the process?
Jul 27, 2015, 10:50 PM EDT
The Nationals were reportedly looking at a reunion with Tyler Clippard before the Athletics traded him to the Mets tonight, but there’s a chance they could do something a lot bigger to strengthen the back-end of their bullpen.
Jul 27, 2015, 10:27 PM EDT
Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez rang in his 40th birthday tonight by doing exactly what he’s been doing for much of the past 20 years.
Jul 27, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT
Markakis played his first nine seasons in the majors with the Orioles before signing a four-year, $44 million contract with the Braves last December.
Jul 27, 2015, 9:22 PM EDT
The Astros acquired Scott Kazmir from the Athletics last week, but they are still thinking big as they make a push for the postseason.
Jul 27, 2015, 8:49 PM EDT
Tolleson is available for tonight’s game against the Yankees.
Jul 27, 2015, 8:01 PM EDT
Greene’s 6.72 ERA is the highest among all MLB pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
Jul 27, 2015, 7:08 PM EDT
Weaver has been out since July 20 with left hip inflammation.
Jul 27, 2015, 6:21 PM EDT
Clippard and Jeurys Familia should give the Mets a potent late-inning combo.
Jul 27, 2015, 6:14 PM EDT
Hamstring and calf injuries have limited Victorino to just 33 games this season.
Jul 27, 2015, 5:41 PM EDT
For Hamels to approve a trade there, however, the expression of interest would have to be mutual.
Jul 27, 2015, 4:53 PM EDT
He’s officially a free agent.
Jul 27, 2015, 4:10 PM EDT
He’ll face Toronto.
Jul 27, 2015, 3:04 PM EDT
Strasburg is coming back from a strained oblique muscle.
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 23
- The Troy Tulowitzki trade might be the strangest deadline deal ever 26
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects 84
- Alex Rodriguez celebrates 40th birthday with a home run 15
- Mets acquire Tyler Clippard from the Athletics 21
- Angels acquire Shane Victorino from Red Sox 25
- Happy 40th Birthday, A-Rod! 44
- Craig Biggio, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez inducted into the Hall of Fame 41
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (156)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- MLBPAA announces “Heart and Hustle” award, given mostly to Americans and white guys (131)
- Colin Cowherd wonders how baseball can be considered “complicated” if Dominicans can understand it (129)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)