Jul 20, 2013, 4:35 PM EDT
There’s something to be said for rewarding a star player who has been underpaid most of his career. Dustin Pedroia is one of the two faces of the Red Sox, he’s a legitimate All-Star candidate every year and it’s possible he’ll go into the Hall of Fame someday. If he were a free agent this winter, a long-term, $20 million-per-year extension would make plenty of sense for the Red Sox. He’s worthy of that kind of money.
But, of course, Pedroia isn’t a free agent this winter. The Red Sox have him signed at the bargain rate of $10 million next year, with an $11 million club option for 2015. Those salaries can increase a bit if Pedroia finishes in the top three in the AL MVP balloting this year, but he’s a steal either way.
So, why sign Pedroia now? The plus for the Red Sox would seem to be to beat the big Robinson Cano deal that’s coming this winter. Cano is likely to get one of the biggest free agent contracts ever; $150 million for six years would be the low end for him. Something like $190 million for seven years might be more realistic. Pedroia might not want to settle for $20 million per year once Cano is making $25 million-$27 million.
But that’s basically the only reason to do it now. Pedroia is nine months younger than Cano, but he won’t be a free agent until he’s 32. Of Pedroia’s 10 most similar players through age 28, according to Baseball Reference, only one remained a star after age 32. That’s Charlie Gehringer, one of two Hall of Famers in his top 10. The other HOFer, Tony Lazzeri, had his last year as a regular at 33. Jose Vidro, Pedroia’s most similar player, had a lousy year at 33 and then vanished. Ray Durham and Michael Young, Nos. 3 and 4 on the list, lasted as regulars, but not as very good ones.
Probably in part because of the takeout slides and all of the diving around, second basemen tend to have shelf lives. Pedroia has been durable, missing a big chunk of a season just once in his career to date, but he does get banged up. It’s probably going to get worse in his 30s, given how hard he plays the game. If his body starts breaking down, he’ll turn worthless in a hurry.
There’s also one more big reason for the Red Sox not to do a deal: any contract extension immediately gets factored in for luxury tax purposes. With an average annual value under $7 million, Pedroia’s modest deal has been a big help to a franchise that’s been trying to edge up against, but not exceed, the tax threshold. Any new contract will result in a big jump in that figure next year. If you remember, it was luxury tax purposes that caused the Red Sox to delay wrapping up Adrian Gonzalez‘s big deal two years ago; they needed his cheap luxury-tax figure to carry over for one more year before they gave him his $22 million-per-year contract.
Pedroia is a wonderful player, and it’d be great to see him keep this up for another seven or eight years. Banking on it, though, would be a mistake. Ideally, the Red Sox could give Pedroia something like a two-year extension through 2017, with nice boosts to his 2014-15 salaries as part of the bargain. Since that probably isn’t happening, they should just let things play out for the next two years.
May 22, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Castillo is starting tonight in right field.
May 22, 2015, 2:50 PM EDT
Janssen was signed for $5 million to replace Tyler Clippard as the Nationals’ primary setup man.
May 22, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
When I see you smile, Barry, I can face the world. You know I can do anything. When I see you smile, I see a ray of light.
May 22, 2015, 2:21 PM EDT
21-year-old right-hander Norge Ruiz.
May 22, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
But Major League Baseball’s silliness about these kinds of infractions, however, will continue on unabated.
Quote of the Day: Freddie Freeman inadvertently illustrates the silliness of the foreign substance rules
May 22, 2015, 11:03 AM EDT
Paraphrased: “Smith should be way less obvious about the fact that he’s trying to keep us safe!”
May 22, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Travis has been a huge bright spot for Toronto this season.
May 22, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
At least that’s what Molly Knight reports from Japan, and I’m inclined to agree.
May 22, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Mujica actually managed to pick up the ball and make a throw to first base for the out.
May 22, 2015, 8:46 AM EDT
Everyone does it and no one cares. Until someone does.
May 22, 2015, 7:19 AM EDT
The Giants own the Dodgers at AT&T Park. And the Madison Bumgarner owned Clayton Kershaw. At least yesterday.
May 21, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
The Cubs are reportedly one of several teams who have looked into signing Soriano.
May 21, 2015, 11:03 PM EDT
Coco Crisp left Tuesday’s game with tightness in his neck and it sounds like he’s going to need to miss some time.
May 21, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
The Phillies have reportedly talked to the Angels about a deal involving Revere.
May 21, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
Brewers reliever Will Smith was ejected from Thursday’s game against the Braves in the bottom of the seventh inning after he was found to have a foreign substance on his non-throwing arm.
May 21, 2015, 9:03 PM EDT
Masahiro Tanaka took his first step toward rejoining the Yankees rotation tonight by tossing three scoreless innings in a minor league rehab start with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
May 21, 2015, 8:01 PM EDT
Howard homered in back-to-back games at Coors Field and is now up to nine home runs on the season.
May 21, 2015, 7:12 PM EDT
Yan Gomes has been sidelined since April 11 due to an MCL sprain in his right knee.
May 21, 2015, 6:28 PM EDT
Back in 2013 the Dodgers signed Arruebarrena to a five-year, $25 million deal.
May 21, 2015, 6:18 PM EDT
Victorino is dealing with general soreness which is “centralized somewhat” in his left calf.
- Cuba’s best pitching prospect is on his way to America 12
- Will Smith suspended for eight games for the foreign substance on his arm 45
- Will Smith’s ejection once again shows baseball’s silly approach to foreign substance rules 45
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 90
- Who really owns a home run ball? 65
- The story behind the Nationals squirting chocolate syrup on each other after big wins 43
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 130
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” 130
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (130)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (130)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. (111)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)