Jul 20, 2013, 4:35 PM EDT
There’s something to be said for rewarding a star player who has been underpaid most of his career. Dustin Pedroia is one of the two faces of the Red Sox, he’s a legitimate All-Star candidate every year and it’s possible he’ll go into the Hall of Fame someday. If he were a free agent this winter, a long-term, $20 million-per-year extension would make plenty of sense for the Red Sox. He’s worthy of that kind of money.
But, of course, Pedroia isn’t a free agent this winter. The Red Sox have him signed at the bargain rate of $10 million next year, with an $11 million club option for 2015. Those salaries can increase a bit if Pedroia finishes in the top three in the AL MVP balloting this year, but he’s a steal either way.
So, why sign Pedroia now? The plus for the Red Sox would seem to be to beat the big Robinson Cano deal that’s coming this winter. Cano is likely to get one of the biggest free agent contracts ever; $150 million for six years would be the low end for him. Something like $190 million for seven years might be more realistic. Pedroia might not want to settle for $20 million per year once Cano is making $25 million-$27 million.
But that’s basically the only reason to do it now. Pedroia is nine months younger than Cano, but he won’t be a free agent until he’s 32. Of Pedroia’s 10 most similar players through age 28, according to Baseball Reference, only one remained a star after age 32. That’s Charlie Gehringer, one of two Hall of Famers in his top 10. The other HOFer, Tony Lazzeri, had his last year as a regular at 33. Jose Vidro, Pedroia’s most similar player, had a lousy year at 33 and then vanished. Ray Durham and Michael Young, Nos. 3 and 4 on the list, lasted as regulars, but not as very good ones.
Probably in part because of the takeout slides and all of the diving around, second basemen tend to have shelf lives. Pedroia has been durable, missing a big chunk of a season just once in his career to date, but he does get banged up. It’s probably going to get worse in his 30s, given how hard he plays the game. If his body starts breaking down, he’ll turn worthless in a hurry.
There’s also one more big reason for the Red Sox not to do a deal: any contract extension immediately gets factored in for luxury tax purposes. With an average annual value under $7 million, Pedroia’s modest deal has been a big help to a franchise that’s been trying to edge up against, but not exceed, the tax threshold. Any new contract will result in a big jump in that figure next year. If you remember, it was luxury tax purposes that caused the Red Sox to delay wrapping up Adrian Gonzalez‘s big deal two years ago; they needed his cheap luxury-tax figure to carry over for one more year before they gave him his $22 million-per-year contract.
Pedroia is a wonderful player, and it’d be great to see him keep this up for another seven or eight years. Banking on it, though, would be a mistake. Ideally, the Red Sox could give Pedroia something like a two-year extension through 2017, with nice boosts to his 2014-15 salaries as part of the bargain. Since that probably isn’t happening, they should just let things play out for the next two years.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:58 AM EDT
In a shocking move, the Rangers designated Neftali Feliz for assignment to clear roster space for Matt Harrison.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
Base Ba’al has no mercy for Coco Crisp.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
The Mets are VERY interested in Ben Zobrist.
Jul 3, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
The Mets are getting desperate for runs, but aren’t ready to rush prospect Michael Conforto just yet.
Jul 3, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
Miguel Cabrera suffered a calf injury after a single in the fourth inning on Friday against the Blue Jays.
Jul 3, 2015, 9:08 PM EDT
Anibal Sanchez has silenced a tough Blue Jays lineup.
Jul 3, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Patrick Corbin will complete his long trek back to the major leagues when he starts against the Rockies on Saturday.
Jul 3, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
The Athletics haven’t used Josh Reddick much against left-handed starters. Reddick isn’t too happy with that, despite his results against southpaws.
Jul 3, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Jameson Taillon was getting pretty close to returning to action for the Pirates, but an inguinal hernia has knocked him back on the shelf.
Jul 3, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
The Cubs acquired Clayton Richard from the Pirates and he’ll start for the club on Saturday.
Jul 3, 2015, 4:40 PM EDT
Jul 3, 2015, 3:52 PM EDT
Both he and the White Sox have disappointed this year, but he could help a contender.
Jul 3, 2015, 3:11 PM EDT
Chamberlain has posted a 4.09 ERA and an ugly 1.682 WHIP in 30 appearances this year. Gorzelanny has been even worse.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:13 PM EDT
$3.5 million will be paid out . . . to charity.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:05 PM EDT
He’s only had six plate appearances since being recalled in late June.
Jul 3, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
And, someone, Tony La Russa placed in this thing.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:37 AM EDT
He changed his mind.
Jul 3, 2015, 10:01 AM EDT
“We’ll leave it at that.”
Jul 3, 2015, 9:11 AM EDT
He has a 2.56 ERA and a 72/31 K/BB ratio over 102 innings on the season.
Jul 3, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
He wasn’t hit hard, but the Braves hit ’em where they weren’t.
- Rangers designate Neftali Feliz for assignment, activate Matt Harrison 3
- Anibal Sanchez loses his bid for a no-hitter with one out in the eighth inning 11
- The Yankees, A-Rod resolve their dispute over the $6 million milestone bonus 28
- Yankees donate $150,000 to charity to get Alex Rodriguez his 3,000th hit ball 19
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno 87
- Settling the Scores: Thursday’s results 59
- Breaking: Cardinals fire their scouting director, likely due to the Astros hacking scandal 61
- Bryce Harper is naked in ESPN’s “Body Issue” 55
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno (87)
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. (78)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (77)
- Brian Dozier is the best second baseman in baseball (72)