Jul 20, 2013, 4:35 PM EST
There’s something to be said for rewarding a star player who has been underpaid most of his career. Dustin Pedroia is one of the two faces of the Red Sox, he’s a legitimate All-Star candidate every year and it’s possible he’ll go into the Hall of Fame someday. If he were a free agent this winter, a long-term, $20 million-per-year extension would make plenty of sense for the Red Sox. He’s worthy of that kind of money.
But, of course, Pedroia isn’t a free agent this winter. The Red Sox have him signed at the bargain rate of $10 million next year, with an $11 million club option for 2015. Those salaries can increase a bit if Pedroia finishes in the top three in the AL MVP balloting this year, but he’s a steal either way.
So, why sign Pedroia now? The plus for the Red Sox would seem to be to beat the big Robinson Cano deal that’s coming this winter. Cano is likely to get one of the biggest free agent contracts ever; $150 million for six years would be the low end for him. Something like $190 million for seven years might be more realistic. Pedroia might not want to settle for $20 million per year once Cano is making $25 million-$27 million.
But that’s basically the only reason to do it now. Pedroia is nine months younger than Cano, but he won’t be a free agent until he’s 32. Of Pedroia’s 10 most similar players through age 28, according to Baseball Reference, only one remained a star after age 32. That’s Charlie Gehringer, one of two Hall of Famers in his top 10. The other HOFer, Tony Lazzeri, had his last year as a regular at 33. Jose Vidro, Pedroia’s most similar player, had a lousy year at 33 and then vanished. Ray Durham and Michael Young, Nos. 3 and 4 on the list, lasted as regulars, but not as very good ones.
Probably in part because of the takeout slides and all of the diving around, second basemen tend to have shelf lives. Pedroia has been durable, missing a big chunk of a season just once in his career to date, but he does get banged up. It’s probably going to get worse in his 30s, given how hard he plays the game. If his body starts breaking down, he’ll turn worthless in a hurry.
There’s also one more big reason for the Red Sox not to do a deal: any contract extension immediately gets factored in for luxury tax purposes. With an average annual value under $7 million, Pedroia’s modest deal has been a big help to a franchise that’s been trying to edge up against, but not exceed, the tax threshold. Any new contract will result in a big jump in that figure next year. If you remember, it was luxury tax purposes that caused the Red Sox to delay wrapping up Adrian Gonzalez‘s big deal two years ago; they needed his cheap luxury-tax figure to carry over for one more year before they gave him his $22 million-per-year contract.
Pedroia is a wonderful player, and it’d be great to see him keep this up for another seven or eight years. Banking on it, though, would be a mistake. Ideally, the Red Sox could give Pedroia something like a two-year extension through 2017, with nice boosts to his 2014-15 salaries as part of the bargain. Since that probably isn’t happening, they should just let things play out for the next two years.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
The Braves’ one-year deal with catcher A.J. Pierzynski is for $2 million.
Dec 26, 2014, 9:20 PM EST
Rafael Furcal has suffered another injury, this time a torn hamstring which will keep him out of the Dominican Winter League playoffs.
Dec 26, 2014, 8:03 PM EST
If Wandy Rodriguez passes his physical, the Phillies are expected to sign him to a minor league deal.
Dec 26, 2014, 7:10 PM EST
Jeff Manship will begin the spring with the Indians after signing a minor league deal.
Dec 26, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
According to Peter Gammons, some GMs think the Giants will eventually trade for Ben Zobrist.
Dec 26, 2014, 3:49 PM EST
After seven years in the United States, Hiroki Kuroda is heading home.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:32 AM EST
Uggla hit .179 in 2013 and .149 this year.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
And it’s all thanks to a man named George Mukhobe.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
He threw 64 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 44/16 K/BB ratio for the Giants in 2014.
Dec 26, 2014, 9:35 AM EST
Remember, Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.
Dec 26, 2014, 7:32 AM EST
Actually, no, he probably wouldn’t have, Curt.
Dec 25, 2014, 3:05 PM EST
Japanese righty Chihiro Kaneko might have been one of the top starters on the open market this winter had he been posted by the Orix Buffaloes, his Nippon Professional Baseball team.
Dec 25, 2014, 1:23 PM EST
Your one-stop shop for all of the offseason signings.
Dec 25, 2014, 8:47 AM EST
And a very special friend of HBT
Dec 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EST
A good way to finish off our Christmas Eve coverage on HardballTalk …
Dec 24, 2014, 8:04 PM EST
The sought-after 26-year-old right-hander has now officially re-signed with the Hiroshima Carp for the 2015 season, according to the Japan Times.
Dec 24, 2014, 6:17 PM EST
Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that the Rockies have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with outfielder Roger Bernadina.
Dec 24, 2014, 4:21 PM EST
A toast to my big brother George: The richest man in town. Well, except for Mr. Potter. That guy is LOADED.
Dec 24, 2014, 2:00 PM EST
No, really. The news broke on line at a Honeybaked Ham store.
Dec 24, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
Based on these results, no, we will not stick to baseball. Because you clearly don’t want us to.
- Merry Christmas from HBT! 74
- THE YEAR IN REVIEW: HBT’s most commented-upon stories of the year 86
- The Yankees are treating Alex Rodriguez differently than they treated Derek Jeter. So what? 40
- Braves sign setup man Jason Grilli to two-year contract 15
- My Imaginary Hall of Fame Ballot 120
- Phil Hughes signs a three-year extension with the Twins 27
- The Padres have talked to the Phillies about Cole Hamels 23
- Why is John Smoltz a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame? 63
- Curt Schilling goes after Obama, says Ronald Reagan would watch “The Interview” (226)
- My Imaginary Hall of Fame Ballot (120)
- Today’s specious anti-Mike Piazza-for-the-Hall-Fame argument (96)
- THE YEAR IN REVIEW: HBT’s most commented-upon stories of the year (86)
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” (85)