Jul 20, 2013, 4:35 PM EDT
There’s something to be said for rewarding a star player who has been underpaid most of his career. Dustin Pedroia is one of the two faces of the Red Sox, he’s a legitimate All-Star candidate every year and it’s possible he’ll go into the Hall of Fame someday. If he were a free agent this winter, a long-term, $20 million-per-year extension would make plenty of sense for the Red Sox. He’s worthy of that kind of money.
But, of course, Pedroia isn’t a free agent this winter. The Red Sox have him signed at the bargain rate of $10 million next year, with an $11 million club option for 2015. Those salaries can increase a bit if Pedroia finishes in the top three in the AL MVP balloting this year, but he’s a steal either way.
So, why sign Pedroia now? The plus for the Red Sox would seem to be to beat the big Robinson Cano deal that’s coming this winter. Cano is likely to get one of the biggest free agent contracts ever; $150 million for six years would be the low end for him. Something like $190 million for seven years might be more realistic. Pedroia might not want to settle for $20 million per year once Cano is making $25 million-$27 million.
But that’s basically the only reason to do it now. Pedroia is nine months younger than Cano, but he won’t be a free agent until he’s 32. Of Pedroia’s 10 most similar players through age 28, according to Baseball Reference, only one remained a star after age 32. That’s Charlie Gehringer, one of two Hall of Famers in his top 10. The other HOFer, Tony Lazzeri, had his last year as a regular at 33. Jose Vidro, Pedroia’s most similar player, had a lousy year at 33 and then vanished. Ray Durham and Michael Young, Nos. 3 and 4 on the list, lasted as regulars, but not as very good ones.
Probably in part because of the takeout slides and all of the diving around, second basemen tend to have shelf lives. Pedroia has been durable, missing a big chunk of a season just once in his career to date, but he does get banged up. It’s probably going to get worse in his 30s, given how hard he plays the game. If his body starts breaking down, he’ll turn worthless in a hurry.
There’s also one more big reason for the Red Sox not to do a deal: any contract extension immediately gets factored in for luxury tax purposes. With an average annual value under $7 million, Pedroia’s modest deal has been a big help to a franchise that’s been trying to edge up against, but not exceed, the tax threshold. Any new contract will result in a big jump in that figure next year. If you remember, it was luxury tax purposes that caused the Red Sox to delay wrapping up Adrian Gonzalez‘s big deal two years ago; they needed his cheap luxury-tax figure to carry over for one more year before they gave him his $22 million-per-year contract.
Pedroia is a wonderful player, and it’d be great to see him keep this up for another seven or eight years. Banking on it, though, would be a mistake. Ideally, the Red Sox could give Pedroia something like a two-year extension through 2017, with nice boosts to his 2014-15 salaries as part of the bargain. Since that probably isn’t happening, they should just let things play out for the next two years.
Apr 1, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Johnny Cueto is due to become a free agent five days after the 2015 World Series and he has said that he will not allow in-season extension negotiations. So the countdown clock is on in Cincinnati’s front office, and it sure looks like time is going to run out.
Apr 1, 2015, 9:28 PM EDT
As noted by CSNChicago.com’s Dan Hayes, White Sox left-hander Chris Sale struck out 13 batters over six-plus innings of one-run ball Wednesday in a game against a group of Reds minor leaguers.
Apr 1, 2015, 8:34 PM EDT
Petit batted .278/.300/.423 with eight doubles and two home runs in 100 plate appearances last season for the Astros. He wasn’t going to make their Opening Day roster this spring, but the versatile 30-year-old infielder could be of immediate use to the Yankees …
Apr 1, 2015, 7:41 PM EDT
As first reported by Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez will undergo Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on Thursday morning.
Apr 1, 2015, 7:07 PM EDT
Martinez wraps up the spring with a 2.86 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 22 innings. He was officially named the Cardinals’ fifth starter on Monday …
Apr 1, 2015, 6:12 PM EDT
Tigers setup man Bruce Rondon was supposed to make an appearance in Wednesday’s Cactus League game against the Padres, but he woke up with a sore shoulder and couldn’t shake the discomfort during pregame stretching.
Apr 1, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
Jenna and I continue to preview the divisions. Next up: the NL East.
Apr 1, 2015, 4:26 PM EDT
Matuella started six games this season, throwing 25 innings with a 1.08 ERA and 24 strikeouts.
Apr 1, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
With a new GM and questions surrounding the futures of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, where are the Rockies headed?
Apr 1, 2015, 3:58 PM EDT
Allen Craig hit one today. Yawn.
Apr 1, 2015, 3:03 PM EDT
Now you all will know when it is time to “MAKE SOME NOISE!!!!!!”
Apr 1, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
Are we there yet?
Apr 1, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Verlander has never been on the disabled list in his 10-year career.
Apr 1, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
The Phillies are going to be bad in 2015. But just how bad?
Apr 1, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Philadelphia’s pitching staff isn’t exactly stacked, but Gonzalez blew his chance to make the team by allowing 12 runs in 14 spring training innings.
Apr 1, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Rendon injured the knee on March 9.
Apr 1, 2015, 11:03 AM EDT
The Mets are locking up one of the best defensive center fielders in the game.
Apr 1, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
If he crushes Triple-A pitching he’ll be back soon enough.
Apr 1, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
And it’s as random as it usually is.
Apr 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Miami gave up left-hander Brian Flynn and minor leaguer Reid Redman to get Crow from Kansas City.
- Christian Vazquez to undergo Tommy John surgery 9
- 2015 Preview: Colorado Rockies 4
- 2015 Preview: Minnesota Twins 18
- 2015 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies 30
- 2015 Preview: Cincinnati Reds 47
- The average Major League Baseball salary this year will be more than $4 million — a record 22
- 2015 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays 21
- The Cubs assign Kris Bryant and Addison Russell to the minors, option Javier Baez as well 70
- Ex-Cardinals outfielder Curt Ford was assaulted in St. Louis and told to “go back to Ferguson” (122)
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (118)
- Rob Manfred says it would be hard to reinstate Pete Rose in a limited way (91)
- The MLBPA releases a statement on Kris Bryant, mentions possible litigation (90)
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? (88)