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A time to be young

Aug 14, 2013, 12:20 PM EDT

Mike Trout Reuters

I didn’t realize it at the time, but the late 1970s was an amazing time for young baseball players. I’m arbitrarily choosing 23-and-younger as “young” — but with that age in mind, the late 1970s gave us Hall of Famers Eddie Murray, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Gary Carter, Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith and some pretty awesome players like Lou Whitaker, Willie Randolph and the rather outspoken Jack Clark.

All of those players, as young men, posted good seasons in the late 1970s. In 1978 alone, 14 young players posted a 3.0 WAR or better. That remains the record for a single season. You just don’t have seasons when THAT MANY young players are playing that well.

This year, though, there are 13 or 14 young players who COULD, with a nice finish, post a 3.0 WAR. It probably won’t be quite that many in the end — but it certainly could be 10. There are already seven players with a better than 3.0 WAR.

Anyway, we should celebrate the time. Here’s a quick look at the top 12 young players in WAR:

1. Obviously Mike Trout (6.6 WAR).

2. Obviously, Manny Machado (5.3 WAR), who finally stopped hitting doubles like he was Tris Speaker but is still having a fantastic year.

3. Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons (4.6 WAR) is hitting just .239 with a 74 OPS+ — but his defensive statistics at shortstop are not just good but tilt-the-pinball-machine good. Right now, the Dewan Plus/Minus has him at PLUS-FORTY, which is, well, more or less unprecedented. That means — and remember, there is still six-plus weeks left in the season — the stat estimates he has made FORTY MORE PLAYS than the average shortstop can make. That’s like two per week. According to Baseball Reference’s “WAR — Fielding Runs” he has saved 34 runs — already the second-highest total in the archives.* Fangraphs has a slightly more moderate reading of his defense, but still has him as the best defensive player in the National League.

*In 1975, Baltimore’s Mark Belanger saved 35 runs.

4. Milwaukee’s 22-year-old shortstop Jean Segura (4.3 WAR) leads the National League in hits, has stolen 35 bases, hit 12 home runs and seems to be playing very good defense. He came over from the Angels in the Zack Greinke trade — and I’m thinking that will be one they regret in Anaheim for a long time.

5. We’re 62 games into this now, and Yasiel Puig (3.9 WAR) is still hitting .373 and he’s still slugging .589 and the Dodgers are an absolutely obscene 44-18 with him in the lineup (Making them 25-32 when he’s not in the lineup). I realize there’s no way Puig can keep this up, and I also realize that he IS keeping it up.

By the way: It is SO much fun to hear Vin Scully talk about Yasiel Puig. It’s worth a nightly check-in.

6. Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman (3.8) is probably more famous at this point for hugging people, but he’s getting on base, hitting with at least some power and seems to be a at the center of the Atlanta mojo.

7. Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado (3.5) is not hitting much at all. So he’s posting most of his value with apparently spectacular defense. His Dewan Plus/Minus is a spectacular plus-30. Here is an amazing play. Here is another. This might be his best one. Here is a noble effort.

8. Jason Heyward (2.5 WAR) has already been up and down and over and out — it’s his fourth full-season in the big leagues. But he’s still just 23 and he still a solid contributor. Don’t know if he will ever become the big star that seemed certain after his 20-year-old season. You know who he kind of reminds me of? Von Hayes. Tall left-handed bat with some power, some speed, loads of talent, lots of charisma — Hayes was famously traded to Philadelphia for five players in the 1980s. He did have a handful of really good years for the Phillies.

9. I kept waiting and believing that Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer (2.3 WAR) would figure things out after a dreadful sophomore season and an even worse start in 2013. On June 5 — my 15th wedding anniversary, thanks for asking — the Royals did something startlingly smart — startling for those of us who have followed them closely for the last 15 or 20 years.They moved Hosmer into the No. 2 spot in the lineup. There are many studies that show lineup strategies make very little difference when it comes to scoring runs, but they do figure in a player’s head. By putting Hosmer in the No. 2 spot (at least this is my theory) they were telling him: Relax. You don’t have to hit home runs. You don’t have to crush the ball and drive in a million runs. Just put a good swing on the ball, keep things going.

For the next two and a half weeks, Hosmer hit .328/.387/.537. He just LOOKED different. The Royals moved him back to the No. 3 spot for a little bit, he’s hitting second again, but his swing has basically clicked back into place. He’s hitting .292/.336/.432, which isn’t All-Star stuff, but he’s slugging about .500 since the switch to the No. 2 slot, and the numbers climb, and he’s a big reason the Royals are playing their best baseball in decades.

10. Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo (2.2 WAR) just turned 24. He’s hitting just .234, but he’s drawing more walks, he will probably hit 25 homers, and he is EXACTLY the sort of guy (powerful lefty-handed hitter with developing plate discipline) who can develop into a big star more or less overnight. That’s what happened to David Ortiz and Chris Davis among others.

11. I love watching Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez (2.2 WAR) play. His offense has dwindled which is not unexpected — he’s never shown any plate discipline and the offense he flashed his first couple of years was a surprise. But he should improve as a hitter. And defensively — I think he’s the best defensive catcher in the American League.

12. Bryce Harper (2.0) was having the sort of follow-up season everyone expected when he ran into the wall and missed a month. He has looked pretty lost ever since, hitting .235/.331/.417 since his return at the beginning of July. Well, more or less everything has gone wrong in Washington. He’s too talented and too determined to be down for long.

Two other young players worth mentioning are Jose Iglesias, who figures to be Detroit’s shortstop for a good while now, and Tampa Bay’s Will Myers.

Ah, Myers. What is that Fitzgerald quote? “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

1. I think the Royals made a bad trade when they dealt Wil Myers to the Rays. He’s already hitting for average and power, he’s just 22, I think he will be one of the game’s really good hitters for the next decade. I think the Royals will regret the trade many times.

2. I think the Royals made the trade because they felt it was time to start winning — and it is working. Maybe the trade is a big reason. Maybe it isn’t. But, again, it is working. They have starting winning. Their surge has energized a great baseball town that was sunk by 20-plus years of incompetence and awfulness. The main pitcher in the deal, James Shields, has pitched well enough, and the Royals lead the American League in ERA. And so, the trade has been good for Kansas City.

I don’t know if those are exactly OPPOSING ideas, but I believe both.

  1. sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo - Aug 14, 2013 at 12:35 PM

    In all fairness to the Royals (and this is a completely back-handed compliment) they have had so mnay “sure thing” prospects go bust on them lately, I don’t blame them a bit for trading a prospect for a proven commodity in an area of need. And as you say, the plan seems to be working.Maybe they would have been better off with Myers and signing Kyle Lohse or someone similar, but who knows??

  2. losanginsight - Aug 14, 2013 at 12:37 PM

    WAR has as much to do with the starting player as much as it has to do with the player he’s “replacing”. This stat is pretty much meaningless.

    • cohnjusack - Aug 14, 2013 at 12:47 PM

      Umm…you don’t quite know how WAR works, do you? It’s not as thought “replacement level” was just a number someone pulled out their ass with no research.

  3. Jeremy T - Aug 14, 2013 at 12:39 PM

    Are there supposed to be links in #7? That ending bit doesn’t make much sense without them.

  4. historiophiliac - Aug 14, 2013 at 12:54 PM

    Punks

    • aceshigh11 - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:17 PM

      You forgot to tell them to get off your lawn ;)

      • historiophiliac - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:44 PM

        I let my lawn guy worry about that. ;)

  5. tbutler704 - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:04 PM

    Mike Trout is amazing. Maybe he’ll start drawing Mantle comparisons soon. Hopefully he doesn’t break down with injuries nor be the drunk Mantle was.

    • cohnjusack - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:15 PM

      Here’s one!

      Mantle v. Trout — Age 20 – 21 (omitting first partial seasons for both players. Mantle was better at 19)

      Mantle:
      269 games, 199 runs, 307 hits, 61 doubles, 10 triples, 44 HR, 179 RBI, .304/.396/.515, 12 SB, 154 OPS+, 11.7 WAR

      Trout:
      256 games, 213 runs, 331 hits, 59 doubles, 16 triples, 51 HR, 159 RBI, .327/.411/.568, 75 SB, 174 OPS+, 17.5 WAR

      Trout, has 17.5 WAR his first two full seasons. Let’s say he ends this year with 8 (it’s at 6.6 right now, making this probably a bit conservative). That’s 18.9 over the course of his first two full seasons. How does that compare with other players who got off to historically great starts (first two full seasons)?

      Albert Pujols- 12.1 WAR
      Ichiro Suzuki: 11.2 WAR
      Ted Williams: 13 WAR
      Joe DiMaggio: 12.8 WAR
      Scott Rolen: 11.1 WAR
      Mike Piazza: 10.6 WAR
      Dwight Gooden: 17.6 WAR
      Cal Ripken: 12.8 WAR
      Tom Seaver: 12.8 WAR
      Frank Robinson: 13.4 WAR
      Dick Allen: 15.1 WAR
      Stan Musial: 14.7 WAR
      Shoeless Joe Jackson: 18.7 WAR

      The only players that come close are Joe Jackson and Dwight Gooden. The guy has, quit simply, put up possibly the best start to a career in major league history.

      Interestingly enough, the top 3, Jackson, Dick Allen and Gooden are not in the hall of fame.

      • tbutler704 - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:24 PM

        Absolutely incredible. If this kid were playing in NY, you’d hear about nothing else.

      • aceshigh11 - Aug 14, 2013 at 3:43 PM

        This is excellent analysis. Thanks for that.

  6. scoutsaysweitersisabust - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:06 PM

    If we expand to 24 and look at pitchers we get to add a few more fun names to the list.

    Starling Marte (24 yrs, 4.5), Matt Harvey (24 yrs, 5.4), Chris Sale (24 yrs, 5.9), Patrick Corbin (23 yrs, 4.2), Jose Fernandez (20 yrs, 4.5) Stephen Strasburg (24yrs, 3.0), Madison Bumgarner (23yrs, 3.3).

  7. pjm1120 - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:13 PM

    WAR is so absurd. Why not just average, HR, RBI and errors.

    • cohnjusack - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:17 PM

      Exactly! Why aspirin when bloodletting does the trick?

    • dondada10 - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:30 PM

      RBI, lol.

    • tbutler704 - Aug 14, 2013 at 3:58 PM

      I’d really love to read your detailed explanation of why WAR is absurd. $10 says you truly have no idea what it is.

    • cohnjusack - Aug 14, 2013 at 4:25 PM

      .279 average, 297 HR, 1115 RBI, 141 Errors…

      …pretty good I guess. But yeah, no way Rickey Henderson is a HOFer. Amiright guys?

    • 18thstreet - Aug 15, 2013 at 9:36 AM

      Hey, I think the guy deserves an actual response and not just mockery. On the other hand, the flaws with errors as a stat are so obvious that I wonder if he even cares.

  8. paperlions - Aug 14, 2013 at 1:15 PM

    Not a fan of bWAR as the defensive metric is a bit wonky (at least, more so than UZR) and the basis for their pitcher WAR is too reliant of the quality of the fielders behind them rather than isolating the pitchers performance. Using fWAR and the 3.0 cut-off:

    In 1978, there were 9 position players and 7 pitchers that were 23 or younger with 3.0 or more fWAR.

    This year there are 4 position players and 2 pitchers that are 23 or younger with at least 3.0 WAR already, and 5 position players and 2 pitchers with at least 2.0 fWAR already.

    This is certainly a great time for young ball players, but 1978 still looks untouchable.

  9. tbutler704 - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:08 PM

    “By the way: It is SO much fun to hear Vin Scully talk about Yasiel Puig. It’s worth a nightly check-in.”

    I must confess to being a poor Met fan the last two nights, as I watched the game on MLB.TV so I could listen to Vin Scully. Dodger fans have no idea how fortunate they’ve been all these years. He works alone, just Vin and his stories talking to you about baseball. Its pure joy.

    • moogro - Aug 14, 2013 at 7:00 PM

      Vin Scully is so absurd, it amounts to meaninglessness. Why not just count Joe Buck, Tim McCarver and ESPN?

  10. cohnjusack - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:19 PM

    …and that lists excludes all the great young pitchers. Shelby Miler, Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, Patrick Corbin, Madison Bumgarner: All 23 and younger and posting 3 WAR or above.

  11. weaselpuppy - Aug 14, 2013 at 2:51 PM

    Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, Dave Stieb, Willie Wislon, JR Richard, and Aurelio Lopez’s 5.3 WAR as a setup guy/closer split say helloooo from 1979

  12. soundsofsuccess7 - Aug 14, 2013 at 6:53 PM

    The Angels’ top players at the moment are Trout, Kole Calhoun, Garrett Richards, Jered Weaver, JB Shuck, and Howie Kendrick.

    All those guys came through the Angels’ minors and are all new to the bigs, except Howie and Jered. Helps support the statement. A notorious big spender is seeing performance from its young-UBS.

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