Aug 17, 2013, 11:43 AM EDT
Well, as expected, Los Angeles’ Mike Trout is beginning to open up his WAR lead on Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, not that anyone really cares or should expect it to make much of a difference in the MVP race. I’ve been saying for a couple of months now that by the time the season ends, Trout will have a higher WAR than Cabrera. I would argue it’s because while Cabrera is the best HITTER in the game, Trout is the best PLAYER in the game, But you could certainly make the argument that it’s about the WAR stat itself.
First, the numbers right now:
Baseball Reference WAR
Mike Trout: 7.2 WAR
Miguel Cabrera: 6.3 WAR
Mike Trout: 8.2 WAR
Miguel Cabrera: 7.5 WAR
Baseball Prospectus WARP
Mike Trout: 8.2 WARP
Miguel Cabrera: 6.7 WARP
Basically every version of WAR I’ve seen has Trout ahead at the moment, and I suspect that the gap will widen before the year ends. The reason is simply this: Cabrera has only one way to add to his WAR — by hitting baseballs. Trout has multiple ways to add to his WAR — with his hitting, his fielding, his speed, etc. If you have two stores that are selling Diet Coke exclusively, and for the same price, the store that sells more always will make more money. But if one store also sells Diet Pepsi and Coke Zero while the other doesn’t, well, obviously, what you have is a strained analogy but I’ve got this caffeine headache and really need a Diet Coke right now.
Trout just puts more stuff into the WAR bucket. You might not like how WAR adds up such things, but that’s the simple fact here. WAR, in all its forms, tends to look past the context issues and anomalies of basic statistics like batting average and counting RBIs.
Here’s a quick example: You probably know that Cabrera is hitting a rather extraordinary .358 with a .450 on-base percentage. Trout is hitting a slightly less extraordinary .330 with a .428 on-base percentage. So, Trout is great … and Cabrera is better. Seems obvious, no?
Well, sure, except for this: Trout has reached base nine times on error. Cabrera has reached zero. Now, I don’t want to go off on a rant here about errors and their statistical absurdity — but let’s just say that as far as baseball value goes, reaching on error is just as good a reaching on a hit. In both cases, you hit the ball into the field of play and you reach base. Same thing. We can argue from now until forever how it should be figured statistically, but it is inarguable that they are of equal value when it comes to the actual game.
Batting average and on-base percentage count reach-on-error as OUTS. Everything I think about this, it drives me crazy. It’s one of the dumbest statistical tricks in all of sports, maybe the dumbest, it is not unlike not giving a shooter credit for a three-point shot because he made it off the backboard or taking away not giving a receiver credit for a catch and yardage because the defender slipped and fell down. If you hit the ball and reach base it should absolutely NOT be counted as an out. It’s not an out. No out was recorded. IT IS NOT AN OUT. Sorry, I am going off on a rant here.
If you give Trout credit for the times he reached base on error, his batting average jumps to .350 and his on-base percentage jumps to .444 — suddenly very close to Cabrera.
This, I think, is one of the benefits of speed. Here’s another one: Cabrera has come up in a double-play situation 118 times and hit into 16 of them. Trout has come up in 92 double-play situations and hit into just six. So that’s 10 fewer outs for Trout. That should be figured in somehow when considering a player’s value, no? Throw it into the WAR bucket.
Home field context should be considered. Trout plays in a brutal hitter’s park. Cabrera plays in a very good one. Speed should be considered. Trout has stolen 27 of 31 bases and he leads the American League with eight triples. Cabrera has three stolen bases (though he has not been caught) and one triple. Throw it into the WAR bucket.
Trout has, by the numbers, had a tough year defensively. Last year, the numbers showed him to be a defensive superstar, but this year Baseball Reference has him with a negative defensive WAR and the Dewan Plus/Minus shows him to be minus-7 — about seven plays worse than the average center fielder . But those numbers have climbed rapidly the last few weeks and I suspect they will keep going up, Trout is simply too fast, too hard-working and too talented to be a defensive liability. I fully believe he’s had some defensive issues, but class eventually rises.
Cabrera meanwhile — he fought third base to a draw last year through sheer stubbornness, but he has always been a defensive liability and from everything I can tell he’s been pretty terrible there this season. The numbers also indicate he has been pretty terrible this season.
So we are once again in a situation where Cabrera’s superior batting average and power numbers face off against Trout’s very good batting average and power numbers, great speed and better defense. Of course, Cabrera’s team leads the American League Central while Trout’s team is dreadful and has been all season. I think we know where this is going. Trout will once again win the hearts and minds of those who like the advanced stats. Cabrera will once again win the MVP.
May 24, 2015, 10:59 AM EDT
Gomes, 27, batted .278/.313/.472 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI in 135 games last season for the Tribe, earning his first Silver Slugger Award. Cleveland (17-23) could use a big offensive boost right about now.
May 24, 2015, 10:04 AM EDT
Miami defeated Baltimore to snap an eight-game losing streak late Saturday night on a Martin Prado walkoff RBI single in the bottom of the 13th inning.
May 24, 2015, 9:21 AM EDT
Rizzo also hit a three-run double in the fifth, finishing the game with a career-high-tying six RBI.
May 24, 2015, 8:37 AM EDT
Your box scores and recaps from Saturday …
May 23, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Joey Votto made an unorthodox throw to help turn a double play against the Indians on Saturday.
May 23, 2015, 10:47 PM EDT
Brian Matusz is the second lefty reliever to be ejected for having a foreign substance on his arm.
May 23, 2015, 10:40 PM EDT
The Marlins were considering upgrading their bullpen with Jonathan Papelbon.
May 23, 2015, 9:58 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton will be added to the Rangers’ roster on Monday.
May 23, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Paul Konerko was honored before Saturday’s Twins/White Sox game as his number 14 was retired.
May 23, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Yasmani Grandal was hit by a backswing on Friday and will spend at least a week on the bench to recuperate.
May 23, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
A pair of previously injured and aging first basemen have performed well as baseball’s second month nears its conclusion.
May 23, 2015, 6:59 PM EDT
The Nationals are trying to get into the heads of the Phillies by playing soft music during batting practice at Nationals Park.
May 23, 2015, 6:01 PM EDT
The Houston Astros used a 5-4-3 triple play to get out of a jam against the Tigers on Saturday.
May 23, 2015, 5:28 PM EDT
Ben Zobrist reqired arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on April 28, but he’s set to rejoin the Athletics sooner than originally anticipated.
May 23, 2015, 4:51 PM EDT
Here’s something you don’t see very often.
May 23, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT
Justin Verlander is ready to take the next step in his long road back from a right triceps strain.
May 23, 2015, 3:01 PM EDT
Wright has been sidelined since April 14 and he’s not close to rejoining the Mets.
May 23, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
Mesoraco has been dealing with a hip injury all season and surgery could be next.
May 23, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Tanner Roark posted a 2.85 ERA across 31 starts last season, but the Nationals moved him to the bullpen after signing Max Scherzer to a huge contract over the winter. That depth is coming in handy now that Doug Fister is sidelined.
May 23, 2015, 12:59 PM EDT
Cueto has been bothered by “general stiffness” dating back to his last start on Tuesday.
- Yan Gomes returns to the Indians’ lineup after missing six weeks with a sprained right knee 0
- Marlins jump in Clevelander pool after snapping losing streak 4
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 6
- Brian Matusz was ejected for having a foreign substance on his arm 31
- Josh Hamilton will join the Rangers on Monday 5
- UPDATE: David Wright diagnosed with spinal stenosis 20
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 39
- Video: Mike Trout makes a ridiculous slide to beat the tag at third base 15
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (131)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- GM Dan Jennings to be named the Marlins new manager. And it’s a terrible idea. (111)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)