Aug 17, 2013, 11:43 AM EDT
Well, as expected, Los Angeles’ Mike Trout is beginning to open up his WAR lead on Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, not that anyone really cares or should expect it to make much of a difference in the MVP race. I’ve been saying for a couple of months now that by the time the season ends, Trout will have a higher WAR than Cabrera. I would argue it’s because while Cabrera is the best HITTER in the game, Trout is the best PLAYER in the game, But you could certainly make the argument that it’s about the WAR stat itself.
First, the numbers right now:
Baseball Reference WAR
Mike Trout: 7.2 WAR
Miguel Cabrera: 6.3 WAR
Mike Trout: 8.2 WAR
Miguel Cabrera: 7.5 WAR
Baseball Prospectus WARP
Mike Trout: 8.2 WARP
Miguel Cabrera: 6.7 WARP
Basically every version of WAR I’ve seen has Trout ahead at the moment, and I suspect that the gap will widen before the year ends. The reason is simply this: Cabrera has only one way to add to his WAR — by hitting baseballs. Trout has multiple ways to add to his WAR — with his hitting, his fielding, his speed, etc. If you have two stores that are selling Diet Coke exclusively, and for the same price, the store that sells more always will make more money. But if one store also sells Diet Pepsi and Coke Zero while the other doesn’t, well, obviously, what you have is a strained analogy but I’ve got this caffeine headache and really need a Diet Coke right now.
Trout just puts more stuff into the WAR bucket. You might not like how WAR adds up such things, but that’s the simple fact here. WAR, in all its forms, tends to look past the context issues and anomalies of basic statistics like batting average and counting RBIs.
Here’s a quick example: You probably know that Cabrera is hitting a rather extraordinary .358 with a .450 on-base percentage. Trout is hitting a slightly less extraordinary .330 with a .428 on-base percentage. So, Trout is great … and Cabrera is better. Seems obvious, no?
Well, sure, except for this: Trout has reached base nine times on error. Cabrera has reached zero. Now, I don’t want to go off on a rant here about errors and their statistical absurdity — but let’s just say that as far as baseball value goes, reaching on error is just as good a reaching on a hit. In both cases, you hit the ball into the field of play and you reach base. Same thing. We can argue from now until forever how it should be figured statistically, but it is inarguable that they are of equal value when it comes to the actual game.
Batting average and on-base percentage count reach-on-error as OUTS. Everything I think about this, it drives me crazy. It’s one of the dumbest statistical tricks in all of sports, maybe the dumbest, it is not unlike not giving a shooter credit for a three-point shot because he made it off the backboard or taking away not giving a receiver credit for a catch and yardage because the defender slipped and fell down. If you hit the ball and reach base it should absolutely NOT be counted as an out. It’s not an out. No out was recorded. IT IS NOT AN OUT. Sorry, I am going off on a rant here.
If you give Trout credit for the times he reached base on error, his batting average jumps to .350 and his on-base percentage jumps to .444 — suddenly very close to Cabrera.
This, I think, is one of the benefits of speed. Here’s another one: Cabrera has come up in a double-play situation 118 times and hit into 16 of them. Trout has come up in 92 double-play situations and hit into just six. So that’s 10 fewer outs for Trout. That should be figured in somehow when considering a player’s value, no? Throw it into the WAR bucket.
Home field context should be considered. Trout plays in a brutal hitter’s park. Cabrera plays in a very good one. Speed should be considered. Trout has stolen 27 of 31 bases and he leads the American League with eight triples. Cabrera has three stolen bases (though he has not been caught) and one triple. Throw it into the WAR bucket.
Trout has, by the numbers, had a tough year defensively. Last year, the numbers showed him to be a defensive superstar, but this year Baseball Reference has him with a negative defensive WAR and the Dewan Plus/Minus shows him to be minus-7 — about seven plays worse than the average center fielder . But those numbers have climbed rapidly the last few weeks and I suspect they will keep going up, Trout is simply too fast, too hard-working and too talented to be a defensive liability. I fully believe he’s had some defensive issues, but class eventually rises.
Cabrera meanwhile — he fought third base to a draw last year through sheer stubbornness, but he has always been a defensive liability and from everything I can tell he’s been pretty terrible there this season. The numbers also indicate he has been pretty terrible this season.
So we are once again in a situation where Cabrera’s superior batting average and power numbers face off against Trout’s very good batting average and power numbers, great speed and better defense. Of course, Cabrera’s team leads the American League Central while Trout’s team is dreadful and has been all season. I think we know where this is going. Trout will once again win the hearts and minds of those who like the advanced stats. Cabrera will once again win the MVP.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT
A far more recent past than most people will admit.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:06 AM EDT
His presence will give the Nats a ton of flexibility down the stretch.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:40 AM EDT
Like we always say: he giveth and he taketh away. Yesterday he gaveth.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
He said it rather than tweeted it. Which is sad, because I had good money on it coming out “your just an idiot” if he had tweeted it.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT
Bud Black will be back for year nine at the helm of the Padres.
Sep 21, 2014, 8:04 AM EDT
The Royals are not doing too well in the biggest series to hit Kansas City in 29 years.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Nick Franklin hit the “C” ring catwalk at Tropicana Field with a deep fly ball to right field, which was initially ruled a home run. Replay review confirmed the ruling.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
The pitching-light Dodgers will have Jamey Wright make his second start in the last seven years on Sunday against the Cubs.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
Jerome Williams continued to pitch well for the Phillies, even notching a baseball first in the process of defeating the Athletics on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:19 PM EDT
Matt Garza doesn’t hit many batters, but the right-hander managed to hit Andrew McCutchen twice in his start on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:35 PM EDT
Mark Teixeira’s wrist injury flared up again, forcing him out of Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays in the fifth inning.
Sep 20, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton has received a lot of pain-killing injections lately, as the veteran has battled shoulder and rib cage problems over the last two weeks.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
Jason Kipnis is listed as day-to-day with a sore right hamstring.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
Glen Perkins tried to tough out an injury and it didn’t go so well, but he seems to have learned his lesson.
Sep 20, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
This was a day of missed opportunities for the Royals.
Sep 20, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT
Zimmerman has been sidelined since July 22 due to a Grade 3 strain of his right hamstring.
Sep 20, 2014, 3:26 PM EDT
The Braves have wilted down the stretch and it appears that some changes could be in store for their front office following the season.
Sep 20, 2014, 2:29 PM EDT
With Derek Jeter’s career coming to an end, the Yankees will open the gates early next week for their final home series of the season.
Sep 20, 2014, 1:50 PM EDT
Hudson has a 9.92 ERA over four starts this month.
Sep 20, 2014, 1:01 PM EDT
Twins right-hander Phil Hughes has thrived with a change of scenery this season and he could finish the year with a place in MLB history.
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