Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EDT
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Sep 2, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Cabrera signed a minor league deal with San Francisco in mid-July after getting released by the Orioles.
Sep 2, 2015, 5:43 PM EDT
He said the job he did was “masterful.” You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Sep 2, 2015, 5:07 PM EDT
Left-hander Tyler Lyons will start in Wacha’s place against the Nationals.
Sep 2, 2015, 4:31 PM EDT
Franco has had a fantastic rookie season.
Sep 2, 2015, 3:05 PM EDT
“He’s our closer . . . Rooooosebuuuuuudddd”
Sep 2, 2015, 2:13 PM EDT
64/4 K/BB ratio in 60 innings.
Sep 2, 2015, 12:43 PM EDT
And, I would guess, it wont be such serious business here after a few years either.
Sep 2, 2015, 11:31 AM EDT
Of course their biggest problem is not going anyplace, as he owns the team.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:54 AM EDT
Miguel Sano statistical porn.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
A picture of A-Rod from yesterday — not this one — seems to be the tiebreaker here.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Getting healthy for October is the focus.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT
He caught Kevin Quackenbush napping. Almost literally napping.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:37 AM EDT
A great catch and an extra innings walkoff homer.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:07 AM EDT
Its like watching a car crash. No, wait: a tricycle accident.
Sep 2, 2015, 7:04 AM EDT
Was this a . . . statement game?
Sep 1, 2015, 11:34 PM EDT
Would it endanger or enlighten Berrios’ career to give him a few starts in a postseason race?
Sep 1, 2015, 10:49 PM EDT
It was Cal Ripken Jr. Night on Tuesday at Baltimore’s Camden Yards, with the Orioles celebrating the 20th anniversary of Ripken taking over Lou Gehrig’s record for consecutive games played …
Sep 1, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Stanton has been on the disabled list since June 27 because of a broken hamate bone in his right hand.
Sep 1, 2015, 9:12 PM EDT
And he did it on the night the O’s are celebrating the 20th anniversary of Cal Ripken breaking Lou Gehrig’s record for consecutive games played.
Sep 1, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Adam Rubin of ESPN New York shares the plan …
- The Marlins are going to change everything except their biggest problem this offseason 39
- Drooling over Miguel Sano’s incredible numbers through 50 career games 25
- Matt Williams puts up another strong performance in his quest to get himself fired 103
- Settling the Scores: Tuesday’s results 77
- Yankees reveal Mark Teixeira’s shin injury is “more than we thought” 16
- There’s a chicken pox outbreak in the Royals’ clubhouse and multiple players are infected 28
- Shoeless Joe Jackson is not being reinstated 67
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 66
- Sarah Palin sticks up for Curt Schilling, tells ESPN to “stick to sports” (266)
- Dan Patrick: When does ESPN cut ties with Curt Schilling? (202)
- Curt Schilling taken off of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast this week (134)
- Matt Williams puts up another strong performance in his quest to get himself fired (103)
- Joe Girardi would like Carlos Gomez to “play the game right” (97)