Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EDT
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
May 27, 2015, 7:21 AM EDT
Four walkoff wins last night.
May 26, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took what might be the final step before a rehab assignment Tuesday afternoon at Oakland’s O.Co Coliseum …
May 26, 2015, 10:32 PM EDT
Brewers shortstop Jean Segura appeared to be in for an extended absence when he landed on the disabled list May 14 with a fracture in the pinkie on his throwing hand …
May 26, 2015, 9:56 PM EDT
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says the trade is done and is only awaiting approval from the commissioner’s office.
May 26, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
Check out this laser shot that Hunter Pence crushed Tuesday night at Milwaukee’s Miller Park …
May 26, 2015, 9:21 PM EDT
Great news on rehabbing ace Jose Fernandez.
May 26, 2015, 8:13 PM EDT
This wasn’t really a great catch by Josh Harrison because he bungled the route, but it did look cool …
May 26, 2015, 7:49 PM EDT
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com Monday that he is tired of fans who “bitch and complain” about the moves made by his front office. He went on an apology tour for those comments Tuesday …
May 26, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Mets ace Matt Harvey had the worst start of his young major league career on Saturday against the Pirates, surrendering seven runs in four innings, and manager Terry Collins indicated a few days later that Harvey is fighting through a period of “dead arm.”
May 26, 2015, 6:12 PM EDT
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips missed back-to-back games earlier this month after being diagnosed with a painful case of turf toe in his left foot, and now the problem has resurfaced.
May 26, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Lucroy finished fourth in the MVP voting last season.
May 26, 2015, 4:55 PM EDT
Charter Communications customers in Glendale, Burbank, Malibu and Long Beach will be getting the Dodgers’ network within the next few weeks.
May 26, 2015, 4:37 PM EDT
McGehee and his $4.8 million salary predictably cleared waivers.
May 26, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Five starting positions out of nine slots currently belong to Royals players.
May 26, 2015, 2:48 PM EDT
Dan Jennings’ managerial career is off to an interesting start.
May 26, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Good news for the Reds’ biggest trade chit — er, I mean, for their ace.
May 26, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
In other news, why do we take pitchers at their word when they claim that they’re not really trying to get something extra on the ball?
May 26, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
Signed to a two-year, $16 million deal this offseason, Morse has hit just .211 with two homers and a .557 OPS in 37 games.
May 26, 2015, 1:28 PM EDT
Bundy was scratched from his scheduled start at Double-A.
May 26, 2015, 1:14 PM EDT
Well, that was fun while it lasted at least.
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 0
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 8
- Ruben Amaro apologizes for comments about fans, admits he may have been late on rebuild 22
- Jonathan Lucroy expected to rejoin the Brewers on Monday 0
- More drama in Miami: Marlins demote third base coach Brett Butler after “confusion” over signs 34
- Ruben Amaro dismisses fans who “bitch and complain” about the Phillies’ moves 70
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 67
- Reds finally shut down Devin Mesoraco seven weeks after hip injury, surgery may be needed 7
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- Bryce Harper on Marvin Hudson ejection: “I don’t think 40,000 people came to watch him ump” (132)
- Bryce Harper ejected for second time in a week (122)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (96)