Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EST
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Dec 7, 2013, 7:35 PM EST
Billy Hamilton was a weapon off the bench for the Reds in September as the team geared up for a run at the NL Wild Card. In 2014, Hamilton is expected to play full-time as the Reds’ lead-off man and starting center fielder, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Shin-Soo Choo patrolled center for them in 2013,…
Dec 7, 2013, 6:50 PM EST
Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that the Giants have considered free agent Mike Morse to fill their left field vacancy, but they think they can do a better job making a trade. Schulman added that he would not be surprised if the team made a trade over the upcoming winter meetings. Morse…
Dec 7, 2013, 6:05 PM EST
In what has become an annual tradition, rumors have begun to swirl suggesting Reds closer Aroldis Chapman could move into the starting rotation. The lefty has ranked among baseball’s top-five relievers over each of the past two seasons, but he would theoretically provide more value in the rotation. Neither the team nor Chapman is interested…
Dec 7, 2013, 5:32 PM EST
According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, the Marlins have had “internal discussions” about a trade for Rays utility man Sean Rodriguez. The plan would be to play him at third base, possibly as part of a platoon. The Marlins are reportedly close to a two-year, $7.5 million contract with Garrett Jones, which likely signals that…
Dec 7, 2013, 4:56 PM EST
One day after inking right-handed starter Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30 million contract, the Astros have signed veteran reliever Chad Qualls to a two-year deal with a club option for 2016. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that Qualls will make $6 million guaranteed in the deal while the option is worth $3.5 million. Qualls,…
Dec 7, 2013, 4:34 PM EST
Today marks the 72nd anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor which brought the United States into World War II. Murphy’s Bleachers, a popular bar outside Wrigley Field in Chicago, decided to remember that tragic day with this unfortunate and tasteless sign: Not the way to remember a tragedy. http://t.co/JZk8kxFwYM— Paul Sullivan (@PWSullivan) December 07,…
Dec 7, 2013, 3:09 PM EST
With last night’s signing of Carlos Beltran, the Yankees officially have a surplus of outfielders. And more than a few teams are wondering if they would consider cashing in on that depth in order to upgrade in other areas. Source: Yankees receiving significant interest in Brett Gardner and willing to trade him. They're not shopping…
Dec 7, 2013, 2:10 PM EST
It was reported two weeks ago that the Red Sox had checked in on the availability of Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that he remains “in play” as a potential trade target for Boston. A potential match makes sense on paper, as the Dodgers have a surplus of…
Dec 7, 2013, 1:05 PM EST
Now that second baseman Robinson Cano has reportedly accepted a 10-year, $240 million contract to leave the Yankees for the Mariners, we can open the floodgates on some anonymously-sourced bad-mouthing. We have our first such story from the Cano side of things, courtesy of George A. King III of the New York Post: “Robbie didn’t…
Dec 7, 2013, 12:03 PM EST
Athletics’ left-hander Brett Anderson is a very popular name on the trade market and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal hears that the Rockies are the latest team to ask about him. The two teams had discussions about Anderson yesterday, but Rosenthal hears that they were unable to find a match on a deal. Talks are unlikely…
Dec 7, 2013, 11:01 AM EST
UPDATE: Hanley Ramirez‘s agent tells Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that his client posted the photo on Instagram as a joke and was actually flying to the Dominican Republic. In other words, a contract extension is not imminent. Hey, at least we know that Ramirez has an interesting sense of humor. 11:01 a.m. ET: Hanley Ramirez…
Dec 7, 2013, 10:05 AM EST
Attached to draft pick compensation, right-hander Kyle Lohse waited out the entire winter before eventually landing a three-year, $33 million contract from the Brewers in March. A Scott Boras client, he was reportedly aiming for a three-year, $45 million deal at the start of the offseason, but his market was severely limited due to the…
Dec 7, 2013, 8:58 AM EST
Carlos Beltran has reportedly agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract with the Yankees and word is that he took less money for the opportunity to play in pinstripes. According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the Diamondbacks made a “strong, under-the-radar push” to sign Beltran, offering him more than three years and $45…
Dec 6, 2013, 11:05 PM EST
Beleaguered free agent Joba Chamberlain is drawing interest from the Cubs and Royals, tweets Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Chamberlain, 28, has been ravaged by injuries over the last three seasons. In June 2011, Chamberlain was knocked out for the rest of the season with an elbow injury, eventually undergoing Tommy John…
Dec 6, 2013, 10:20 PM EST
The Marlins signed Garrett Jones to a two-year, $7.5 million deal this afternoon, effectively squeezing Logan Morrison out. Instantly, rumors began to fly involving Morrison in a potential trade. Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets that the Red Sox and Brewers have checked in, though nothing is imminent. Morrison has had trouble staying on the…
Dec 6, 2013, 9:50 PM EST
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News is reporting that the Yankees have signed free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran to a three-year deal. Beltran will turn 37 on April 24, so the contract will span his age 37-39 seasons. After a pair of injury-shortened seasons in 2009 and ’10, Beltran has shown lately that…
Dec 6, 2013, 9:20 PM EST
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports is reporting that the Red Sox are bringing Mike Napoli back. They have signed the 32-year-old first baseman to a two-year, $32 million deal, adding to what has been yet another exciting day of hot stove action across baseball. It’s quite the raise from last season’s one-year, $5 million deal (though…
Dec 6, 2013, 9:00 PM EST
When it was announced that the Brewers had acquired lefty hurler Will Smith from the Royals for outfielder Norichika Aoki, the Internet was rife with Fresh Prince jokes, for the baseball player shares the same name as the star of the hit ’90′s sitcom The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air. Smith has heard the references plenty…
Dec 6, 2013, 8:10 PM EST
The Mets made their big off-season move earlier today, signing free agent outfielder Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million deal. GM Sandy Alderson had promised to make some news, especially compared to the prior off-season when the Mets were among the least active teams. Per Newsday’s Marc Carig on Twitter, Alderson had some assistance…
Dec 6, 2013, 7:20 PM EST
Earlier today, second baseman Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners on a ten-year, $240 million contract, leaving the Yankees out in the cold with an infield that includes the embattled Alex Rodriguez, the hobbled Derek Jeter, the recovering Mark Teixeira, and the recently-signed Kelly Johnson. Now that they don’t have to set aside space for…
- Matt Kemp remains “in play” for the Red Sox 28
- Robinson Cano “didn’t want to play” for Joe Girardi 79
- Report: Yankees have agreed to a three-year deal with Carlos Beltran 120
- Mike Napoli agrees to two-year, $32 million deal with Red Sox 36
- Curtis Granderson leaves Yankees for Mets (and $60 million) 68
- Robinson Cano agrees to $240 million deal with Mariners (260)
- Yankees agree to seven-year, $153M contract with free agent outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (160)
- Report: Mariners willing to offer Robinson Cano a 10-year, $240 million deal (143)
- Report: Yankees have agreed to a three-year deal with Carlos Beltran (120)
- When will the Yankees regret the Jacoby Ellsbury contract? (103)