Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EDT
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:51 PM EDT
Ryan Vogelsong will start as scheduled in Game 4 of the World Series against the Royals. Madison Bumgarner will not pitch on short rest.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:27 PM EDT
The Royals’ bullpen was solid, allowing only two base runners in four innings to preserve Jeremy Guthrie’s win in Game 3 of the World Series against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 11:02 PM EDT
Brandon Finnegan achieved a rather rare feat with his first appearance of the World Series in Game 3 on Friday night against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:55 PM EDT
Cole Hamels is updating his 20-team no-trade list, which will dictate if and how the Phillies shop him over the off-season.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Giants fought back in the bottom of the sixth inning with two runs, making it a one-run game again. The Royals lead 3-2 heading into the seventh inning.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
The Royals extended their lead over the Giants to 3-0 thanks to an Alex Gordon RBI double and an Eric Hosmer RBI single in the top of the sixth inning of Game 3 of the World Series.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:50 PM EDT
The Twins are expected to consider free agent manager Joe Maddon for their managerial vacancy.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:08 PM EDT
The Royals have a narrow lead through the first three innings of Game 3 of the World Series against the Giants.
Oct 24, 2014, 8:45 PM EDT
Victor Martinez is going to use his monster 2014 season to attempt to get a four-year deal over the off-season.
Bruce Bochy, Dave Righetti have discussed using Madison Bumgarner on short rest if Giants lose Game 3
Oct 24, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The Giants have kicked around the idea of using Madison Bumgarner on short rest if they lose Game 3 of the World Series against the Royals.
Oct 24, 2014, 7:43 PM EDT
No word yet on the exact role Towers would fill in Cincinnati.
Oct 24, 2014, 7:20 PM EDT
Paul Konerko and Jimmy Rollins are your co-winners of the Roberto Clemente Award.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
The Royals bullpen is really good. So good, in fact, that you can’t really use it incorrectly, Joe Posnanski writes.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:37 PM EDT
Being in the World Series hasn’t stopped the Royals from tweaking the margins of their 40-man roster.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
Joe Maddon is looking to become at least the second-highest paid manager in baseball.
Oct 24, 2014, 5:40 PM EDT
Jordan pitched well in nine starts for the Nationals as a 24-year-old rookie last season, but then went 0-3 with a 5.61 ERA in five starts this year before being shut down in June.
Oct 24, 2014, 5:03 PM EDT
Joe Maddon is a good manager. But he’s just a manager.
Oct 24, 2014, 4:23 PM EDT
Earlier this week the Cardinals insisted there was nothing wrong with Adam Wainwright’s elbow and he wouldn’t require surgery.
Oct 24, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Needs more Pixies. I have no idea which song, but any list needs more Pixies.
Oct 24, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
And he wouldn’t wish it on anyone else.
- Behind strong bullpen, Royals edge Giants 3-2 to take a 2-1 World Series lead 9
- Paul Konerko, Jimmy Rollins named co-winners of the Roberto Clemente Award 1
- The greatest trick this Royals bullpen ever pulled … 3
- Adam Wainwright underwent elbow surgery to “trim” cartilage 11
- World Series, Game 3: Royals vs. Giants lineups 1
- Andrew Friedman got $35 million to leave the Rays for the Dodgers … and he might be underpaid 13
- Shocker! Joe Maddon to opt out of his contract and leave the Rays 141
- World Series Reset: On to AT&T Park 14
- Shocker! Joe Maddon to opt out of his contract and leave the Rays (141)
- Erroneous Narrative Alert: no, the Giants are not a “gritty,” anti-stats organization (122)
- Pedro Martinez has some opinions about who the new “face of baseball” is (112)
- PANTY RAID! Homeland Security agents confiscate unlicensed Kansas City Royals underwear (109)
- The World Series ratings are low. So what? (101)