Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EDT
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Apr 25, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Hisashi Iwakuma could miss up to a month after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right lat muscle.
Apr 25, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Alex Rodriguez is one of many major leaguers Matt Harvey has impressed.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Adrian Beltre humorously sent an invoice to Garrett Richards for the three bats he broke on Friday.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:52 PM EDT
Freddy Galvis threw his hat into the ring as an early contender for Play of the Year.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:37 PM EDT
Adam Wainwright suffered an apparent Achilles injury after hitting a pop-up in Saturday’s game against the Brewers.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
The Dodgers’ thin bullpen could get even thinner if Joel Peralta needs to go on the disabled list.
Apr 25, 2015, 7:10 PM EDT
The Rays designated slugger Allan Dykstra for assignment to make room for Everett Teaford on Saturday.
Apr 25, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
Watch Kevin Plawecki swat his first major league homer.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:21 PM EDT
But it’s not Rusney Castillo time yet.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:01 PM EDT
The Marlins have stumbled out of the gate with a disappointing 6-11 record, but they entered play today on a three-game win streak and here’s some good news about their rehabbing ace.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Fanning was involved in baseball for more than 60 years.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:01 PM EDT
It’s of utmost importance that this happens.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:48 PM EDT
It looked like the Blue Jays had one of the best young left-handed pitchers in the game after Romero compiled a 3.60 (119 ERA+) across his first three seasons in the majors, but his career veered off track after 2011 due to control problems and knee issues.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:05 PM EDT
Albers suffered a compression fracture of a finger on his throwing hand during Thursday’s brawl.
Apr 25, 2015, 2:16 PM EDT
The Rangers will reportedly only be responsible for less than $7 million of Hamilton’s remaining contract.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:58 PM EDT
Anthony Rendon suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee in early March, but he’s finally close to joining the Nationals.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:54 PM EDT
Surgery will likely cost him 4-6 weeks.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:05 PM EDT
TJ House will start in his place against Detroit.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:24 PM EDT
Six players were suspended for Thursday’s benches-clearing brawl between the White Sox and Royals. Yordano Ventura got the longest suspension with seven games.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:01 PM EDT
Nelson Cruz just keeps on mashing for the Mariners.
- Report: Rangers will pay Josh Hamilton less than $7 million; deal includes opt-out after two years 87
- Suspensions announced for Thursday’s brawl between the White Sox and Royals 75
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 81
- Report: Angels, Rangers agree on Josh Hamilton trade 69
- Must-Click Link: Alex Rodriguzez: the slugger with a thousand faces 22
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 115
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected 155
- Bartolo Colon picks off a baserunner. By running him down all by himself. 55
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (155)
- Kelvin Herrera gets a five-game suspension; Yordano Ventura fined (133)
- Jose Bautista and the Orioles exchanged some words last night (117)
- Joe Buck has a truly awful suggestion about how to improve MLB broadcasts (116)