Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EST
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Nov 24, 2014, 6:38 AM EST
It could happen. It could happen as early as today, folks.
Nov 23, 2014, 11:41 PM EST
The Red Sox and Hanley Ramirez will finalize a deal on Monday in the range of five years and $90 million, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Nov 23, 2014, 11:10 PM EST
The Astros, in the market for a top-end closer, have spoken to the agent of David Robertson.
Nov 23, 2014, 10:20 PM EST
Giants receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. made a ridiculous catch on Sunday Night Football. MLB players reacted to it on Twitter.
Nov 23, 2014, 9:35 PM EST
The Braves have been shopping Justin Upton and the Rangers are interested.
Nov 23, 2014, 8:25 PM EST
Uncle Sam will be coming for Giancarlo Stanton.
Nov 23, 2014, 7:15 PM EST
The Marlins have discussed swapping Nathan Eovaldi for Wade Miley.
Nov 23, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
The Red Sox could revamp the left side of their infield if they have their way in free agency.
Nov 23, 2014, 4:45 PM EST
Davis was designated for assignment by the Bucs a couple of days ago to open up a 40-man roster spot for top pitching prospect Jameson Taillon. Now the first baseman is headed to Oakland.
Nov 23, 2014, 2:15 PM EST
The Red Sox and Cubs have long been considered the favorites to sign free agent Jon Lester, with the Braves and Cardinals also lingering. But there may be a surprise coming.
Nov 23, 2014, 12:03 PM EST
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Indians have acquired right-hander Charles Brewer from the Diamondbacks in exchange for cash.
Nov 23, 2014, 10:51 AM EST
Torii Hunter could be headed back to where it all began.
Nov 23, 2014, 9:44 AM EST
Watch as former MLB commissioner Bud Selig introduces new commissioner Rob Manfred …
Nov 22, 2014, 10:35 PM EST
The Dodgers added some pitching depth, picking up Mike Bolsinger from the Diamondbacks on Saturday.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
Wily Mo Pena could be back in the major leagues if the Twins are willing to play ball.
Nov 22, 2014, 8:25 PM EST
Are they looking to hire a caddie?
Nov 22, 2014, 7:20 PM EST
The Rockies added a bit of pitching depth, signing John Lannan to a minor league deal.
Nov 22, 2014, 6:15 PM EST
The Giants have a Plan B if they can’t bring back Pablo Sandoval.
Nov 22, 2014, 5:25 PM EST
And the Giants are still in the mix, too.
Nov 22, 2014, 1:13 PM EST
Satin spent parts of the past four seasons in the majors with the Mets.
- So what would the Red Sox look like with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval? 2
- Report: Red Sox finalizing a 5-year, $90 million deal with Hanley Ramirez 22
- MLB players react to Odell Beckham, Jr. catch on Sunday Night Football 22
- Report: Red Sox make $95 million offer to Pablo Sandoval 77
- White Sox sign Adam LaRoche to two-year, $25 million deal 35
- Report: Red Sox offer Jon Lester six years, $110-120 million 72
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” 130
- A’s sign Billy Butler to three-year, $30 million contract 84
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal (157)
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. (148)
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal (135)
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” (130)
- Sexual assualt charges reinstated against Tigers pitcher Evan Reed (129)