Aug 27, 2013, 9:45 AM EDT
So I’m reading the latest Jon Heyman column and I’m finding myself agreeing with him more than I am with people coming at the issue he’s discussing from a sabermetric point of view. And I wasn’t even hit on the head this morning or anything.
The topic: the Kill The Win campaign Brian Kenny has been waging at MLB Network and on his NBC Sports Radio show. You’ve probably seen or heard some of it. Basically Kenny is crusading to kill pitcher wins as a stat. Now, I’m not sure that he really wants to eliminate the pitcher win. I suspect this is more about conscious rhetorical overstatement in order to shock people into looking at the issue more thoughtfully. Like, Kenny is at 11 in order to get people up to a 5. It makes sense, as do Kenny’s underlying arguments about why the win stat is misleading and way less useful than people tend to think. We’ve been talking about that for years here, of course.
But to the extent this is actually about killing the win — or to the extent people take the baton from Kenny and make extreme arguments about wins being utterly meaningless — I’m more on Heyman’s side of things. Heyman, you may not realize, is actually pretty sensible about pitcher wins. He voted for Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young a few years ago despite the low win totals. He understands that strikeouts and baserunners and stuff matter more than wins. This thinking somehow disappears when he starts talking about Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame but he’s no Hawk Harrellson or Harold Reynolds about these things.
I don’t value wins too much in pitcher analysis, but I don’t think they’re utterly meaningless. For me they’re attention-getters more than anything. When I’m looking through stats from past decades and I see pitchers with big win totals I tend to want to look more deeply at their stat lines to see what kind of season they really had. If I see pitchers who I know (or heard) were good, I notice low win totals and look at their teammates and strikeouts and unearned run totals and things. I use wins as a signpost, and I’m glad they’re there for those purposes. Growing up in the 70s and 80s wins were much talked about and no matter how much my thinking has advanced, I still key on them some. Having them around is like having the common phrases page in the back of your guidebook while traveling in a foreign country.
Also: wins are fun to talk about outside of analysis. As are bunts and batting average. I like having them around for that kind of fun and I like talking about them as long as people don’t mistake the fun talk for meaningful analytical talk. It’d be a real bummer if those stats disappeared simply because we don’t use them the way we used to.
Ultimately all of this may turn on how you feel about revolutions in general. I’m kind of a cautious guy with small-c conservative tendencies. I’m pro-change and advancement and think science and math and change and the future are wonderful things that we should embrace and not fear. But I am wary of rhetorical extremes and ideas which posit that the past is crap and must be abandoned if we are to advance.
Kill the win? Nah. Just reduce it’s significance. And keep it around like we keep around record players and manual typewriters and stuff. They’re neat.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Nick Franklin hit the “C” ring catwalk at Tropicana Field with a deep fly ball to right field, which was initially ruled a home run. Replay review confirmed the ruling.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
The pitching-light Dodgers will have Jamey Wright make his second start in the last seven years on Sunday against the Cubs.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
Jerome Williams continued to pitch well for the Phillies, even notching a baseball first in the process of defeating the Athletics on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:19 PM EDT
Matt Garza doesn’t hit many batters, but the right-hander managed to hit Andrew McCutchen twice in his start on Saturday.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:35 PM EDT
Mark Teixeira’s wrist injury flared up again, forcing him out of Saturday’s game against the Blue Jays in the fifth inning.
Sep 20, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton has received a lot of pain-killing injections lately, as the veteran has battled shoulder and rib cage problems over the last two weeks.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
Jason Kipnis is listed as day-to-day with a sore right hamstring.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
Glen Perkins tried to tough out an injury and it didn’t go so well, but he seems to have learned his lesson.
Sep 20, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
This was a day of missed opportunities for the Royals.
Sep 20, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT
Zimmerman has been sidelined since July 22 due to a Grade 3 strain of his right hamstring.
Sep 20, 2014, 3:26 PM EDT
The Braves have wilted down the stretch and it appears that some changes could be in store for their front office following the season.
Sep 20, 2014, 2:29 PM EDT
With Derek Jeter’s career coming to an end, the Yankees will open the gates early next week for their final home series of the season.
Sep 20, 2014, 1:50 PM EDT
Hudson has a 9.92 ERA over four starts this month.
Sep 20, 2014, 1:01 PM EDT
Twins right-hander Phil Hughes has thrived with a change of scenery this season and he could finish the year with a place in MLB history.
Sep 20, 2014, 12:16 PM EDT
Tanaka has been out since July 8 with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but he’ll make his return Sunday against the Blue Jays.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:29 AM EDT
I’m going to guess that the little girl is suffering from Jeter fatigue.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:49 AM EDT
John Lackey had his most recent turn in the Cardinals’ rotation skipped due to a “dead arm,” but he was impressive in his return last night.
Sep 20, 2014, 10:09 AM EDT
Michael Cuddyer has had a really tough time staying healthy this season, but the impending free agent is making up for lost time right now.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT
A fan sacrificed his popcorn to catch a home run ball last night at Turner Field.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:57 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday around MLB, including the A’s getting back in the win column.
- Matt Garza ejected after hitting Andrew McCutchen a second time 2
- Tigers hang on for second straight win against Royals 2
- Phil Hughes could finish the season with the best K/BB ratio in MLB history 10
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 25
- Clayton Kershaw wins his 20th game of the season 11
- Why are so many people acting like Bryce Harper is a bum? 80
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned 100
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 72
- Geddy Lee’s baseball obsession makes it really hard for me to hate Rush (118)
- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife (103)
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned (101)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (83)
- Umpire ejects jackwagon fan heckling Bryce Harper in Atlanta last night (82)