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ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Athletics

Oct 3, 2013, 3:58 PM EDT

Miguel Cabrera Getty Getty Images

You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Tigers and Athletics have in store for us in the American League Division Series.

The Teams

Detroit Tigers (93-69) vs. Oakland Athletics (96-66)

The Matchups

Game 1 Friday in Oakland: Max Scherzer vs. Bartolo Colon
Game 2 Saturday in Oakland: Justin Verlander vs. Sonny Gray
Game 3 Next Monday in Detroit: Jarrod Parker vs. Anibal Sanchez
Game 4 (if necessary) next Tuesday in Detroit: Dan Straily vs. Doug Fister
Game 5 (if necessary) next Thursday in Oakland

Overview

This is a rematch of last year’s ALDS, which lasted the full five games and ended with Justin Verlander throwing a four-hit shutout. The difference this time around is that the A’s will begin the series at home and will have resurgent Bartolo Colon available to pitch Game 1 and a potential deciding Game 5. As you’ll recall, Colon was unavailable for the playoffs last year following his 50-game PED suspension.

As opposed to last season, the Tigers didn’t have to pass anyone during the final month of the season in order to win the American League Central, but their September swoon (13-13) resulted in them winning the division over the Indians by just one game. With Miguel Cabrera hurting, they scored one run or fewer in seven out of 26 games in September. That’s not going to fly in October. On the bright side, Jim Leyland has one of the best starting rotations in the majors to fall back on, led by this year’s Cy Young Award favorite Max Scherzer, last year’s Cy Young Award runner-up Justin Verlander, and this year’s AL ERA leader Anibal Sanchez. It takes a pretty good group for Doug Fister to be listed fourth.

The Athletics have won back-to-back American League West titles, but there’s still a perception out there that they are a surprise team. Maybe it’s because they play on the West Coast. Maybe it’s because they don’t have many familiar faces. Whatever the case may be, don’t underestimate them. The Athletics were fourth in the majors in runs scored this season and seventh in ERA. Bob Melvin’s mix-and-match lineup featured four players (Brandon Moss, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, Coco Crisp) with at least 22 home runs. They also ranked first in the American League in defensive efficiency rating, which measures the amount of balls put into play which are converted into outs. In short, calling them an underdog would be a mistake.

Storylines

  • What can the Tigers realistically expect from Miguel Cabrera? The slugger has been hobbled for weeks with lingering issues with his groin, abdominal, and hip area. He’s also coming off an uncharacteristic September for his standards. Cabrera at 50 percent is probably better than most hitters at 100 percent, but he won’t be able to truly heal until the offseason. Getting contributions from their other key bats like Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, and Torii Hunter will be critical.
  • While Cabrera is hurting for the Tigers, the Athletics have their own concerns about Cespedes and his right shoulder. He received a cortisone shot a couple of weeks back to deal with the pain, but aggravated the injury while swinging the bat over the weekend and may be limited to the DH spot initially during the series.
  • The Tigers have the clear edge in the starting rotation, but that doesn’t mean it’s a weakness for Oakland. Colon finished second in the AL in ERA this season while Jarrod Parker bounced back nicely from a slow start to the season and rookie Sonny Gray impressed down the stretch. A.J. Griffin is unavailable for the ALDS due to elbow tendinitis, so the A’s will turn to Dan Straily in Game 4.
  • What role with Jhonny Peralta play during the series? While he was the starting shortstop prior to his 50-game PED suspension, that job now belongs to defensive wizard Jose Iglesias. Peralta was groomed in left field during the instructional league and played a couple of games there over the weekend, but he’s still quite green out there. He figures to platoon with Andy Dirks at the very least.
  • Donaldson should garner support for the AL MVP Award and Cespedes is probably the closest thing the A’s have to a household name, but don’t sleep on Brandon Moss. He has a .550 slugging percentage dating back to the start of last season. Only Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, and Miguel Cabrera have been better during that time. Moss does most of his damage against right-handed pitching, which is noteworthy since the Tigers won’t be throwing any left-handed starters during the series.
  • To their credit, the Tigers have come a long way with their bullpen since the start of the season, as Joaquin Benoit has pitched well in the closer role while Drew Smyly has emerged as a trusted late-inning arm. As for the A’s, they ranked sixth in the majors this season in bullpen ERA, with Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle, Jerry Blevins, and Dan Otero proving to be an effective bridge to closer Grant Balfour. Having Rick Porcello available out of the bullpen in the middle innings could be big for the Tigers, but the A’s would still appear to have the advantage here.

Prediction

The Tigers have the star power and the dominant rotation, but this matchup is pretty darn close. The Athletics won 96 games for a reason and are solid in all phases of the game. With a raucous crowd at O.co Coliseum, having homefield is big for them. Melvin’s deep and dominant bullpen could be the difference-maker in this series, but it might not matter if Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, and Fister shut down the A’s bats. The Tigers just can’t count on Cabrera to carry the load here. He’s a huge question mark going into this series.

I think that Detroit’s starters, especially Scherzer, will prove to be too much for Oakland in the end. I’m picking the Tigers in another five-game series.

  1. marc0626 - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:12 PM

    Game 5 for sure. Could go either way

  2. Jeremy T - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:17 PM

    Didn’t Price win the Cy Young last year?

    • D.J. Short - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:23 PM

      Man. In my head, I thought I wrote runner-up! Thanks!

    • dan1111 - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:29 PM

      Yes, though it was one of the poorer choices in recent history. Verlander led the league in ERA+ and strikeouts while pitching 27 innings more than Price

    • ezthinking - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:31 PM

      Yes he did. That’s why the article says, “last year’s Cy Young Award runner-up Justin Verlander.”

      • Jeremy T - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:37 PM

        It said “winner” until he fixed it.

  3. fusionix7 - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:21 PM

    The Tigers can’t waste their opportunities. When they have RISP they need to ACTUALLY knock them in. There was a ridiculous amount of times this year where it was bases loaded or two on and the team is barely able to muster a run.

    • rambobanana - Oct 3, 2013 at 4:57 PM

      Tigers wOBA this season: .341
      ” w/ risp: .344

  4. herkulease - Oct 3, 2013 at 10:55 PM

    6 bullet points for your storyline and its dominated mostly by Tigers stuff. Its like you’re forcing yourself to write something about Oakland. At least try harder.

    If it was Tigers against someone else I bet this would be mentioned.

    In their last 4 game series in Detroit, ERA of starters was combined 8.55(Sanchez, Verlander, Fister, Scherzer) for Detroit vs 3.42 for Oakland(Griffin, Milone, Straily, Colon)

    While I don’t think Detroit’s starters will stink that badly this time around. Recent history suggests they are not as dominate against Oakland as they are against other teams.

    Unless someone can find it, I can’t find any series in the 2nd half where any of their Big 4 were that bad against 1 team.

    • D.J. Short - Oct 4, 2013 at 11:19 AM

      Actually, three of the bullet points are about the A’s and the final one is a 50-50 split about the bullpens, so there’s actually slightly more content on Oakland. Nice try, though.

  5. myopinionisrighterthanyours - Oct 4, 2013 at 1:41 PM

    Was anybody planning on previewing the other ALDS that starts in an hour, or are you too busy reading the various lawsuits filed today?

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