Oct 3, 2013, 9:20 AM EST
You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Pirates and Cardinals have in store for us in the National League Division Series.
Pittsburgh Pirates (94-68) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
Game 1 Today in St. Louis: A.J. Burnett vs. Adam Wainwright
Game 2 Friday in St. Louis: Gerrit Cole vs. Lance Lynn
Game 3 Sunday in Pittsburgh: Joe Kelly vs. Francisco Liriano
Game 4 (if necessary) Monday in Pittsburgh: Undecided vs. Charlie Morton
Game 5 (if necessary) Wednesday in St. Louis
These teams are certainly no strangers to each other, having battled all year for the NL Central crown. The Pirates won the season series 10-9, but the Cardinals took care of business against their other opponents better than the Pirates did, taking the flag. It did take work, however, as Pittsburgh was in first place much longer than the Cards were, with St. Louis only passing them up for good in mid-September. the Cardinals only passed up Pittsburgh for good in mid-September.
But they are very different in terms of postseason experience. The Cardinals have been in the playoffs ten times in the past 14 years. The Pirates, as you may have heard once or twice, are back in the dance for the first time since 1992. Pittsburgh is the ultimate Cinderella story with a bandwagon of fans which grows by the day. St. Louis, it seems, is being cast as something akin to the Yankees this fall. That overdog team which is in it every year and which people are, quite frankly, getting a bit tired of seeing.
Thing is, though: such a narrative is fun and all, but it’s less than illuminating or explanatory. Only three games separated these two clubs. While most will favor the Cards and root for the Pirates, this series is anything but a mismatch.
- Each of these teams has a legitimate MVP candidate: Yadier Molina for the Cards and Andrew McCutchen for the Pirates. Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter will likely have some votes thrown his way as well. But McCutchen may be the most likely to dominate in this series. He showed on Tuesday that being a playoff newbie meant little, reaching base in each of his first four plate appearances and scoring once. And he is probably champing at the bit for Game 1 to start: he has a career line of .429/.452/.750 against Adam Wainwright.
- That said, Wainwright has been dominant in his home park, where he will likely start twice if the series goes five games. Pirates starter A.J. Burnett, however, is no great shakes on the road and has been blown up in Bush Stadium in the past.
- The Pirates like to run, especially with Starling Marte and McCutchen. Molina is one of the best in the business at gunning down base runners, however, so if Clint Hurdle is hellbent on making things happen on the base paths he could be in for a rude awakening.
- The Cardinals have some roster flux: closer Edward Mujica is on the playoff roster but he has lost his closer job after a miserable September. First baseman Allen Craig is off the roster with a sprained foot. But one of the hallmarks of the Cardinals for the past several years has been team depth. Every time someone leaves the team or goes down there is always someone there to take their place and the team tends to not miss a beat. Here we have Trevor Rosenthal filling in for Mujica, and as we saw in last year’s playoffs, Rosenthal can be dominant. In for Craig: Matt Adams, who did nothing other than hit .284/.335/.503 with 17 home runs in 319 plate appearances in 2013. The Cardinals don’t rebuild, they reload.
- This series will be worth watching for the fans alone. PNC Park’s rowdiness clearly got the best of the Reds on Tuesday night and you can expect them to be just as crazy when this series gets to Pittsburgh over the weekend. Meanwhile, don’t think for a minute that the Cardinals’ self-proclaimed Best Fans in Baseball didn’t take notice and won’t do their best to amp up the noise a well. Between Cardinal red and Pirate black these games are gonna look more like college football crowds than baseball crowds.
This series will be laden with more narrative storylines than any of the others this postseason, and most of them will put the Pirates in the more positive light. But ultimately, baseball games are decided on talent. While McCutchen is probably the best guy on the field in this series, this is not the NBA and one man can’t carry a team. Overall the Cardinals have the better lineup with fewer holes. They led the NL in on-base percentage, were third in slugging, were historically good hitting with runners in scoring position and led the league in runs scored. Even after Allen Craig went down in early September, the offense did not really miss a beat.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals rotation likely has the edge here too, if for no other reason than the Pirates best starter — Francisco Liriano — was used on Tuesday and will get only one start in this series. The Cardinals’ starters, meanwhile, combined for a 2.36 ERA in September. The Pirates probably have a slight edge in the bullpen and a huge edge in team defense, but I feel like the Cards have way too much firepower.
I’ll pick The Cardinals in Five.
Nov 22, 2014, 7:20 PM EST
The Mets added a bit of pitching depth, signing John Lannan to a minor league deal.
Nov 22, 2014, 6:15 PM EST
The Giants have a Plan B if they can’t bring back Pablo Sandoval.
Nov 22, 2014, 5:25 PM EST
And the Giants are still in the mix, too.
Nov 22, 2014, 1:13 PM EST
Satin spent parts of the past four seasons in the majors with the Mets.
Nov 22, 2014, 12:12 PM EST
Blanco played for the Cubs from 2005-2008.
Nov 22, 2014, 11:14 AM EST
Yang won the Korean equivalent of the Cy Young award this season and the 26-year-old tops out at 92-95 miles per hour.
Nov 22, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
He figures to get a look as a backup outfielder for the Angels.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:10 AM EST
Boston is competing with San Francisco and San Diego for Sandoval.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:55 PM EST
The Mariners get an extra year to do whatever they want with Danny Hultzen.
Nov 21, 2014, 9:45 PM EST
If the Yankees can’t bring back David Robertson, Jason Grilli could be one option the club could look at.
Nov 21, 2014, 8:40 PM EST
The Orioles bolstered their organizational depth by signing Paul Janish on Friday.
Nov 21, 2014, 7:35 PM EST
The White Sox have signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million deal.
Nov 21, 2014, 7:05 PM EST
The interest in free agent outfielder Torii Hunter has been lukewarm, but he represents a decent Plan B or C for a handful of teams.
Nov 21, 2014, 6:15 PM EST
Andrew Miller is drawing significant interest in the free agent market, and he could even fetch a four-year deal.
Nov 21, 2014, 5:21 PM EST
Wakamatsu, Cash and Ibanez are the finalists.
Nov 21, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
Can you see that happening? I have a hard time seeing that happen.
Nov 21, 2014, 3:10 PM EST
Joyce has been a productive regular for the Rays since 2010.
Nov 21, 2014, 2:34 PM EST
It was attached to a motion filed in court yesterday. Let us gawk at it, shall we?
Nov 21, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
She’s just the third woman at the level of vice president or above in baseball operations in major league baseball.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:49 AM EST
And they want a lot for him.
- Report: Red Sox make $95 million offer to Pablo Sandoval 66
- White Sox sign Adam LaRoche to two-year, $25 million deal 33
- Report: Red Sox offer Jon Lester six years, $110-120 million 72
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” 130
- A’s sign Billy Butler to three-year, $30 million contract 84
- Cardinals reportedly joining pursuit of Jon Lester 65
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. 148
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal 157
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal (157)
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. (148)
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal (135)
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” (130)
- Sexual assualt charges reinstated against Tigers pitcher Evan Reed (128)