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HBT Daily: Previewing the NLCS

Oct 11, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT

The Cardinals will win. Wait, no: the Dodgers will. Wait!  Man, I dunno. But I figure I built in enough deniability with this analysis to where I can later say I called it correctly. That’s what true analysts do.

  1. gloccamorra - Oct 11, 2013 at 1:57 PM

    Man, the commentators’ union is going to all over you for spilling their secrets!

  2. spudchukar - Oct 11, 2013 at 2:38 PM

    If the Dodgers enjoyed the home field advantage, then I believe they would garner a significant favor-ability. But it seems to me LA is counting fairly heavily on their two aces, which while understandable, is also dangerous.

    If the Cards can gain a split or better in the first two in St. Louis, then a lot of the momentum shifts. So far I cannot find any info on the Dodgers’ pitching rotation plans. I assume Ryu would go in game #3, but he hasn’t been named to that spot. Then LA is faced with 3 choices in Game #4. Nolasco, would be the most probable, but they by-passed him in the Divisional match-ups. Volquez is the only other available starter, and choice three would be to bring back Greinke on 3 days rest, but then they would be asking Kershaw to do the same, assuming they follow the existing rotation.

    Plus, then in order for Greinke to pitch Game #7, he would have to return on 3 days rest. Of course there is no guarantee the series would go that far, but it has to be in their management’s minds.

    The Cards line up better. With Kelly and Wacha at home, then Wainwright in the opener in LA, followed by a Miller/Lynn selection, then Kelly in Game #5, with Wacha and Wainwright ready for Games #6 and #7, all on proper rest.

    No predictions or guarantees, cause anything goes in the crap shoot play-offs, but the edge the Dodgers have with the two aces, and better defense (although not that much better), and a more experienced back end of the pen is mitigated by the pitching pairings and the Cards’ extra home game.

  3. stlouis1baseball - Oct 11, 2013 at 4:32 PM

    I don’t know if you are on today or not…but just in case…
    Good luck Sandy! It’s gonna’ be a serious battle.

  4. moogro - Oct 11, 2013 at 5:39 PM

    This is about right. If the Cardinals take one from Greinke or Kershaw, this could easily be a sweep or a 3-1 win. If not, Dodgers will still need 6 or 7 games to win it.

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