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Juan Uribe puts the Dodgers on top early in Game 1 of the NLCS

Oct 11, 2013, 9:36 PM EDT

NLCS - Los Angeles Dodgers v St Louis Cardinals - Game One Getty Images

Cardinals starter Joe Kelly found himself in hot water in the top of the third inning. Carl Crawford led off with a double to left, then moved to third base on a Mark Ellis ground out. Kelly then walked Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in succession, loading the bases for Yasiel Puig. Puig hit a grounder back up the middle to Kelly, who was in a great position to turn a 1-2-3 double play. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Kelly fumbled the ball a bit and could only throw home for the one force out, keeping the inning alive.

Uribe swung at the first pitch he saw from Kelly, a 96 MPH fastball, sending a sharp grounder back up the middle, scoring both Ramirez and Gonzalez, putting the Dodgers up 2-0.

The Cardinals have gone six-up, six-down against Dodgers starter Zack Greinke through two innings thus far.

  1. Jeff M. - Oct 11, 2013 at 9:43 PM


    • cohnjusack - Oct 11, 2013 at 9:48 PM


      • Jeff M. - Oct 11, 2013 at 10:41 PM


  2. cohnjusack - Oct 11, 2013 at 9:44 PM

    Since I’ve caught a lot of shit on my opinions of Joe Kelly here lately, I’ll let Fangraphs do my talking for me

    Basically, Kelly’s .297 BABIP allowed is skewed heavily towards bases empty situations. With runners on base, his BABIP has been a little below the average, and with runners in scoring position, it’s been absurdly low. And if you’re not giving up hits with men in scoring position, you won’t give up many runs either. This has basically been Kelly’s recipe for success in the big leagues: put them on and then leave them there.

    Of all the ways to run a low ERA, this is probably the least sustainable. Some pitchers can hold down hits on balls in play, and some pitchers can hold down their home run rate even while giving up a lot of fly balls, but there simply isn’t the same observed population of pitchers who can consistently get into and out of jams on a regular basis. Good pitchers don’t allow baserunners, basically. They don’t all do it the same way, but in general, the pitchers succeed by holding down wOBA, not by redistributing their outs to the situations that matter the most.

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