Oct 21, 2013, 2:10 PM EDT
This postseason has been dominated by pitching, so who has the arms advantage in the World Series?
During the regular season the Red Sox ranked sixth among AL teams in runs allowed and the Cardinals ranked fifth among NL teams in runs allowed, but overall totals can be misleading when it comes to evaluating the quality of a playoff pitching staff because lesser pitchers rarely make an appearance.
For instance, through 11 playoff games for the Cardinals and 10 playoff games for the Red Sox both teams have used four starting pitchers. That in itself is obviously a big change from the regular season and in the Red Sox’s case they’ve significantly shortened the bullpen pecking order too, essentially going with a four-man relief corps in anything resembling a high-leverage situation.
And that’s where the strength of these two teams really shines through: They don’t have any real, “oh no, this guy is coming into the game?!” weak links once the pitching staff is shortened. Rotation orders haven’t been announced yet, but here’s how the starters compare:
(xFIP stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, about which you can learn more by clicking here.)
Adam Wainwright is the best starting pitcher in this series and based on how he’s pitched so far in his brief MLB career Michael Wacha has made a strong case for second-best, but Jon Lester also has a lengthy track record of very good work and Clay Buchholz had a 1.74 ERA in the regular season.
Every starter who’ll take the mound in this series is at worst a solid mid-rotation guy and the Cardinals have so much starter depth that they aren’t even going to use stud rookie Shelby Miller. I’d give St. Louis a slight rotation edge based on the Wainwright-Wacha one-two punch, but in the (likely) three-four spots I actually trust Boston’s Lackey-Peavy duo a bit more than Kelly-Lynn.
Which brings us to the bullpens …
Trevor Rosenthal: 75 IP, 2.63 ERA, 2.34 xFIP
Carlos Martinez: 28 IP, 5.08 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
John Axford: 65 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.56 xFIP
Seth Maness: 62 IP, 2.32 ERA, 3.13 xFIP
Kevin Siegrist: 40 IP, 0.45 ERA, 3.00 xFIP
Randy Choate: 35 IP, 2.29 ERA, 3.30 xFIP
Koji Uehara has basically been as dominant as a pitcher can possibly be, in the regular season and the postseason, but the Cardinals also have a stud closer in Trevor Rosenthal. And while the Red Sox may struggle to get consistently strong work bridging the gap to Uehara the Cardinals have no shortage of quality setup options from the right side and left side. I’d trust Uehara over anyone right now, but I’d trust Rosenthal and his assortment of setup men over Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and whatever Red Sox manager John Farrell can piece together in the middle innings.
None of which is to say the Red Sox’s bullpen is a huge weakness or anything. It’s not, but if we’re splitting hairs here trying to find potential advantages in this series I think the Cardinals’ bullpen depth could play a big role. They have 5-6 good options, including a lefty specialist in Randy Choate who’ll no doubt be matched up against David Ortiz in some big-time situations.
So which team has the World Series pitching edge? I’d go with the Cardinals, however slightly, based on the strength of Wainwright-Wacha and bullpen depth. And of course me writing this post about all the good pitching in this series means we’re probably looking at a bunch of 9-7 and 10-8 slugfests.
Sep 2, 2014, 6:32 PM EDT
Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock are back with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday after lengthy disabled list stints.
Sep 2, 2014, 5:50 PM EDT
It’s particularly rough timing, as Milwaukee hosts a four-game series with St. Louis beginning Thursday.
Sep 2, 2014, 5:40 PM EDT
Michael Wacha’s recovery from a shoulder injury has gone so well that the Cardinals just announced he’ll come off the disabled list to start Thursday against the Brewers.
Sep 2, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Before being shut down in mid-July the 25-year-old rookie from Japan went 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA in 18 starts, including a 135/19 K/BB ratio in 129 innings.
Sep 2, 2014, 5:09 PM EDT
If it weren’t for expanded rosters for September, he’d probably be on the DL.
Sep 2, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Morrow has been exclusively a starter for Toronto since 2010, including what looked at the time like a breakout season as a starter in 2012.
Sep 2, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Wrap your head around THAT for a second.
Sep 2, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Young flopped with the Mets on a one-year, $7.25 million deal.
Sep 2, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
Not too many managers seem to be on the hot seat. Part of that is because being a manager today is very different than it was back in the day.
Sep 2, 2014, 3:06 PM EDT
Bring out yer dead!
Sep 2, 2014, 2:51 PM EDT
Raburn struggled mightily before going on the DL, hitting .173 in 70 games after playing well enough in a part-time role last season that Cleveland handed him a two-year contract extension.
Sep 2, 2014, 2:31 PM EDT
From a baseball to a slip of paper to a giant statue of the biggest baseball star who ever lived.
Sep 2, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
Please keep in mind that the Twins are currently in last place at 60-77 following three consecutive 95-loss seasons and only the Astros have fewer total wins since 2011.
Sep 2, 2014, 1:13 PM EDT
Polanco went 4-for-26 (.153) during his brief demotion and was in a nasty two-month slump before being sent down, hitting just .204 with a .564 in his last 40 games.
Sep 2, 2014, 12:45 PM EDT
Toronto transferred infielder Brett Lawrie from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list, which means he won’t be eligible to return to the active roster before the season ends.
Sep 2, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Gambling on baseball is dumb. But Kershaw for the Cy Young Award is a pretty safe bet.
Sep 2, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
Adams has thrown just 42 total innings for the Phillies with a month remaining in a two-year, $12 million contract.
Sep 2, 2014, 11:35 AM EDT
Or: meanwhile in weird concessions . . .
Sep 2, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
Neftali Feliz has regained the Rangers’ closer role, but not his old velocity.
Sep 2, 2014, 11:02 AM EDT
And if their shovels are as good as their bats have been lately, they’ll probably dig a hole three miles off target and a month too late.
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