Oct 21, 2013, 2:10 PM EDT
This postseason has been dominated by pitching, so who has the arms advantage in the World Series?
During the regular season the Red Sox ranked sixth among AL teams in runs allowed and the Cardinals ranked fifth among NL teams in runs allowed, but overall totals can be misleading when it comes to evaluating the quality of a playoff pitching staff because lesser pitchers rarely make an appearance.
For instance, through 11 playoff games for the Cardinals and 10 playoff games for the Red Sox both teams have used four starting pitchers. That in itself is obviously a big change from the regular season and in the Red Sox’s case they’ve significantly shortened the bullpen pecking order too, essentially going with a four-man relief corps in anything resembling a high-leverage situation.
And that’s where the strength of these two teams really shines through: They don’t have any real, “oh no, this guy is coming into the game?!” weak links once the pitching staff is shortened. Rotation orders haven’t been announced yet, but here’s how the starters compare:
(xFIP stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, about which you can learn more by clicking here.)
Adam Wainwright is the best starting pitcher in this series and based on how he’s pitched so far in his brief MLB career Michael Wacha has made a strong case for second-best, but Jon Lester also has a lengthy track record of very good work and Clay Buchholz had a 1.74 ERA in the regular season.
Every starter who’ll take the mound in this series is at worst a solid mid-rotation guy and the Cardinals have so much starter depth that they aren’t even going to use stud rookie Shelby Miller. I’d give St. Louis a slight rotation edge based on the Wainwright-Wacha one-two punch, but in the (likely) three-four spots I actually trust Boston’s Lackey-Peavy duo a bit more than Kelly-Lynn.
Which brings us to the bullpens …
Trevor Rosenthal: 75 IP, 2.63 ERA, 2.34 xFIP
Carlos Martinez: 28 IP, 5.08 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
John Axford: 65 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.56 xFIP
Seth Maness: 62 IP, 2.32 ERA, 3.13 xFIP
Kevin Siegrist: 40 IP, 0.45 ERA, 3.00 xFIP
Randy Choate: 35 IP, 2.29 ERA, 3.30 xFIP
Koji Uehara has basically been as dominant as a pitcher can possibly be, in the regular season and the postseason, but the Cardinals also have a stud closer in Trevor Rosenthal. And while the Red Sox may struggle to get consistently strong work bridging the gap to Uehara the Cardinals have no shortage of quality setup options from the right side and left side. I’d trust Uehara over anyone right now, but I’d trust Rosenthal and his assortment of setup men over Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and whatever Red Sox manager John Farrell can piece together in the middle innings.
None of which is to say the Red Sox’s bullpen is a huge weakness or anything. It’s not, but if we’re splitting hairs here trying to find potential advantages in this series I think the Cardinals’ bullpen depth could play a big role. They have 5-6 good options, including a lefty specialist in Randy Choate who’ll no doubt be matched up against David Ortiz in some big-time situations.
So which team has the World Series pitching edge? I’d go with the Cardinals, however slightly, based on the strength of Wainwright-Wacha and bullpen depth. And of course me writing this post about all the good pitching in this series means we’re probably looking at a bunch of 9-7 and 10-8 slugfests.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:02 PM EDT
The Phillies’ rotation is about to get stronger.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
The Twins scored six runs on one hit, eight walks (!) and three wild pitches in the bottom of the eighth inning tonight.
Apr 17, 2014, 10:05 PM EDT
Jonathan Papelbon had a little more giddy-up on his fastball today, but don’t ask him about it.
Apr 17, 2014, 9:31 PM EDT
Jeremy Jeffress turned down a minor league assignment with the Blue Jays and will seek an opportunity elsewhere.
Apr 17, 2014, 8:21 PM EDT
Lots of teams watched Joel Hanrahan throw today.
Apr 17, 2014, 8:16 PM EDT
Yangervis Solarte, Brian Roberts, and Scott Sizemore turned a triple play and got CC Sabathia out of a potential jam.
Apr 17, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Mike Napoli suffered a dislocated finger on Tuesday, but only had to miss one game.
Apr 17, 2014, 7:02 PM EDT
Shane Victorino has been sidelined since the end of spring training with a hamstring strain.
Apr 17, 2014, 6:14 PM EDT
Yet another injury for Lorenzo Cain.
Apr 17, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Ji-Man Choi, a Triple-A first baseman in the Mariners’ farm system, has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drug methandienone.
Apr 17, 2014, 5:08 PM EDT
You take the good, you take the bad, you take ‘em both and there you have Yasiel Puig … Yasiel Puig . . .
Apr 17, 2014, 4:24 PM EDT
Slow starts for the well-paid are beginning to be reversed.
Apr 17, 2014, 3:46 PM EDT
Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson was fantastic this afternoon against the Blue Jays, shutting them out for eight innings of four-hit ball. Gibson struck out four, walked one, and lowered his ERA to 0.93 on the season.
Apr 17, 2014, 3:09 PM EDT
This is some good nonsense for a slow day.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:46 PM EDT
It’s really, really cold in Minnesota right now and they’re playing outdoor baseball.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
Your mileage may vary, but a 1-0 game in which each starter go the distance is baseball at its most sublime.
Apr 17, 2014, 1:14 PM EDT
St. Louis has placed right-hander Joe Kelly on the disabled list after he injured his hamstring trying to beat out an infield single Wednesday.
Apr 17, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Two big features in one week suggest we have hit Peak Puig.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:46 AM EDT
Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen began a minor-league rehab assignment by throwing a scoreless inning Tuesday at Single-A, but now Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports that he’s been “temporarily shutdown” with more back soreness.
Apr 17, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT
This fight was precipitated by a pitcher being deliberate and a batter stepping out. Which, unlike today, was kind of unusual in 1974.
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (244)
- “They Don’t Know Henry” (167)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (133)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (112)