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Red Sox are favored in Game 6

Oct 29, 2013, 11:20 AM EDT

gambling poster

Not surprisingly the Red Sox are betting favorites for Game 6 tomorrow night at Fenway Park, but like the rest of the games in this series Las Vegas has the line very close to a coin flip.

Boston is a -115 favorite, which means you’d have to risk $115 on the Red Sox to win $100. That makes the break-even win rate 54 percent. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are +105 underdogs, so a $100 bet would win $105 and their break-even win rate is 49 percent.

Michael Wacha vs. John Lackey. Coin flip odds. Should be fun.

  1. josemartez - Oct 29, 2013 at 11:25 AM

    St. Louis in 9 games.

    • matt14gg - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:52 PM

      Sox in 3!

  2. rickdobrydney - Oct 29, 2013 at 11:36 AM

    I think Lackey’s routine may have been thrown off by pitching in that game the other night —-We will see a game 7—-

    • mornelithe - Oct 29, 2013 at 11:42 AM

      Nah, Lackey would’ve thrown a side session that game anyway, as he usually does. We’ll have to see, obviously, but he should be ok. Thankfully, Lester going into the 8th allowed the BP 2 days of rest, which brings back a number of middle relief for Farrell.

      That having been said, Wacha’s already shown he’s up to the task of pitching in big games, and pitching well. So, it’s likely that it’ll come down to how Lackey responds. If he pitches the way he did against Verlander, it could be another classic pitcher’s duel.

      • pastabelly - Oct 29, 2013 at 1:04 PM

        Wacha was gone after 114 pitches in six innings last time at Fenway. This is the result of the Sox working pitching counts and havin an extended AL lineup. Lackey pitched well until tiring in the 7th and the Sox lost when Breslow had his FIRST meltdown of this series. It was a great effort by the St Louis bullpen and this one could play out similarly (hopefully, the ball won’t be in Breslow’s hands).

      • mornelithe - Oct 29, 2013 at 2:04 PM

        I know, I watched the game, still doesn’t change the fact that in those 6 innings and 114 pitches, he threw pretty dang well, right? The Red Sox are well-documented at grinding out AB’s, so it’s nothing new. And many pitchers don’t just throw strikes to try and get batters out….the Red Sox are just above average (league leading) in identifying those pitches and not swinging at them.

        I’m not sure we’ll see Breslow pitch again with in a RISP situation, he’s just not been able to do what he’s brought in to do, which is keep those runners from advancing/scoring. With the off day, and with Lester going deep and only needing Uehara to close it out, Farrell will have all hands on deck (Ok, not Lester) for game 6.

      • shaggylocks - Oct 29, 2013 at 4:46 PM

        “That having been said, Wacha’s already shown he’s up to the task of pitching in big games, and pitching well. So, it’s likely that it’ll come down to how Lackey responds.”

        No, it’ll come down to how both Lackey and Wacha respond. Somehow, ever since the ALCS, the dominance of Lackey’s pitching opponents have always been treated as foregone conclusions. I think we do both pitchers justice if we admit they’re both very good but also both potentially fallible.

      • mornelithe - Oct 29, 2013 at 5:31 PM

        That’s a fair point, I guess I’m just looking at it from the season’s perspective, which isn’t entirely fair given Wacha doesn’t have a full season under his belt. You make an excellent point, both are capable of pitching at elite levels, and as this series has gone (and the ALCS for that matter), all it takes is one mistake.

  3. thesmedman - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:06 PM

    B Strong. It’s their blank-in city!

  4. NatsLady - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:32 PM

    I remember when there were fifteen baseball games on a Tuesday… Now we muse and fret over one, and that one is not until tomorrow. Pitchers and catchers report when?

    • sportsdrenched - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:40 PM

      Not soon enough.

  5. sophiethegreatdane - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:35 PM

    No dog in this fight, but I expect Boston will pull it out in the end. I’ve been thoroughly underwhelmed by another wussy NL lineup.

    The Red Sox have been battle tested in what is perhaps professional sports toughest all-around division, and are resilient. I just can’t see the Cards going into Fenway and winning two straight.

    • 8man - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:47 PM

      I didn’t think the Red Sox were good enough to win 2 out of 3 in St. Louis, but they were. Can the Cards win three out of four in Boston? It’s a tall task for the Cardinals.

      • sophiethegreatdane - Oct 29, 2013 at 12:57 PM

        Agreed

  6. coloradostupid - Oct 29, 2013 at 2:11 PM

    My wife wanted me to put $100 on the Red Sox to win the WS back in March when they were 100+ to 1. Looks like I’ll never hear the last of that.

    • rje49 - Oct 29, 2013 at 10:32 PM

      One’s biggest regrets in life are often not what we’ve done, but what we didn’t do. I ought to know. I’ve had several beneficial opportunities that I passed up.

  7. sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo - Oct 29, 2013 at 5:42 PM

    The Titanic was favored to make it across the Atlantic.

    • 18thstreet - Oct 29, 2013 at 7:29 PM

      The Titanic, in this metaphor, is the Yankees.

      • sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo - Oct 30, 2013 at 9:45 AM

        If that is the case, I am going to be sipping bourbon poured over the remains of that iceberg next season.

  8. 18thstreet - Oct 29, 2013 at 7:31 PM

    I think the Red Sox have a good chance of chasing Wacha out of the game by the 5th or 6th. The question is whether Matheny realizes how awesome the young arms in his bullpen arm, or if he keep going to the weakest pieces of it.

    • stlouis1baseball - Oct 29, 2013 at 11:18 PM

      Oh he realizes it 18th. It’s why he has been milking them for all their worth. Which worries the hell out of me!

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