Skip to content

More details on proposed changes to the Japanese player posting system

Nov 11, 2013, 7:29 PM EDT

We heard back in September that some big changes could be coming to the Japanese player posting system. Some details on those changes are beginning to emerge.

While early word indicated that the player would get more control in the process, potentially deciding among the top three bids, that apparently won’t be the case here. In fact, the changes are rather small.

I’m not so sure things will work out that way. If anything, teams may be more inclined to bid higher than they usually would if they believe that they’ll only have to pay an average of the top two bids. Nothing is official yet, so we’ll have to wait on an announcement from MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball.

We should see the new posting system in action soon with the much-hyped Masahiro Tanaka expected to be made available. Bidding figures to top the $51.7 million figure the Rangers paid for exclusive negotiating rights with Yu Darvish two offseasons ago while the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs are among the teams expected to be in the mix.

UPDATE: It looks like other changes are coming. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times cites reports in Japan that teams that win the bidding on a player and fail to sign him will be fined.

  1. rhmurphy - Nov 11, 2013 at 8:03 PM

    It’s not great for MLB. It sounds like a variation of a Vickrey auction – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction

    • baseballfanboy - Nov 12, 2013 at 7:16 AM

      It’s a bit more complicated than that. In an auction where bidders’ valuation are independent, the 1st and 2nd price auction are revenue equivalent so this change would not do anything since teams would bid more in response to only having to pay the 2nd highest price (or the average of the 1st and 2nd highest price).

      However, this is a common value auction since the valuation of baseball players has a common element for all teams. In common value auctions revenue equivalence can fail but the 2nd price auction might actually get higher revenue. So it is possible that this will back-fire.

      Somewhat surprising that MLB did not seem to have asked an economist what they think. I would have told them that it likely won’t matter because teams will adjust their bidding strategies but that there is a small chance that teams will actually pay more because the new system creates an incentive for each team to bid a bit higher.

  2. tfbuckfutter - Nov 11, 2013 at 8:34 PM

    It could be comical because 2 teams may go rogue and then expect the other team to bring down the cost considerably. But really this only seems to protect the winning team.

    If they really want to shake things up they should award negotiating rights to the team that comes in second. That would make for some strategy.

    Or play The Price is Right, have the Japanese team decide the cost, and the team that comes closest without going over wins.

    It’d be nice to see the Marlins win one of these with a bid of $1.

  3. kingkershaw - Nov 11, 2013 at 8:45 PM

    Go ahed, make it easier for mark and stan.

  4. losanginsight - Nov 11, 2013 at 9:02 PM

    Welcome to LA Mr.Tanaka.

  5. showtimefolks007 - Nov 12, 2013 at 3:05 AM

    Change any rules you want MLB he is coming to NYY

    Dodger fans lol. The only reason y’all got who you got because Yankees didn’t want em. No body can outbid us if we really want someone lol

    You are the new kid on the block while we own the damn block and the house you live in has a loan from the bank we own

    Welcome to NYY if we want you, if we don’t than you don’t matter

    • stex52 - Nov 12, 2013 at 8:08 AM

      Wow, I like how you laugh out loud a lot.

    • hep3 - Nov 12, 2013 at 3:56 PM

      What is this “Us” and “We” stuff? Is shotimefolks007 a secret Yankees owner?

      • showtimefolks007 - Apr 29, 2014 at 9:34 PM

        lol i wish

Leave Comment

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!

Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. H. Pence (2145)
  2. M. Morse (2099)
  3. Y. Cespedes (2036)
  4. J. Panik (2007)
  5. M. Moustakas (1976)