Nov 24, 2013, 12:35 PM EDT
Jhonny Peralta should be a terrible defensive shortstop.
Defensive ability peaks significantly younger than offensive ability, and Peralta wasn’t really any good defensively in what should have been his prime. As a 24-year-old in 2006, he was the game’s second worst shortstop by UZR. In 2007, he was the fifth worst.
By 2008, Peralta graded out better, playing pretty much average defense according to UZR, but the Indians moved him to third base the next year, making room for Asdrubal Cabrera at short. In 2010, the Tigers acquired him and moved him back to short, where he was again average initially. And then a funny thing happened. Here are Peralta’s career UZRs in the seasons in which he played 500 innings shortstop:
In both 2011 and 2012, Peralta rated as the game’s third best shortstop. In 2013, he was 14th.
It’s a pretty amazing turnaround made more complicated by the fact that we know Peralta was at least dabbling in PEDs for a portion of it. The narrative for baseball is that steroids=home runs, even though it’s never made much sense to look at it that way. Sprinters, cyclists and the rest didn’t take to doping to build up their biceps.
We know Peralta isn’t a particularly fast guy. He has 13 career steals in 11 seasons, getting caught 21 times. However, his range ratings have gone from horrible in his mid-20s to above average these last three years. The rest of his game has always been solid: even during his days as a bad shortstop, he was above average when it came to avoiding errors and average at turning the double play. His arm is a strength.
As for the range, well, that can largely come down to positioning. Cal Ripken Jr. wasn’t fast either. Troy Tulowitzki isn’t speedy. Adam Everett and Brendan Ryan, two of the game’s very best shortstops over the last decade, weren’t/aren’t factors on the basepaths.
Peralta has obviously gotten much better at learning where to play hitters through the years. To my eyes, he still looks for all the world to be a below average defensive shortstop. But after three years of UZR saying the opposite, I have more faith in the numbers than in my eyes.
I’m still not a fan of the Cardinals’ reported move to give him $52 million for four years. He’s a cheater, and if nothing else, it adds greater uncertainty to what we can expect from him going forward. Offensively, he was great in his 107 games when he wasn’t serving his steroid ban last year, hitting a career high .303 with a .358 OBP and a .457 slugging percentage. However, it took a ridiculous .374 BABIP to produce that .303 average; he actually had his highest strikeout rate since 2007. His career BABIP is .315, and he figures to come in much closer to there next year, which could result in a .260-.270 average. He’s far from a consistent force:
2009: .254/.316/.375 – .691 OPS
2010: .249/.311/.392 – .703 OPS
2011: .299/.345/.478 – .823 OPS
2012: .239/.305/.384 – .699 OPS
2013: .303/.358/.457 – .815 OPS
Of course, just getting average offense and average defense from shortstop would be a huge upgrade over what the Cardinals have received of late. I wouldn’t expect much more and I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for the back half of that contract, but for 2014, he makes the NL’s best team considerably better.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:49 PM EDT
Carlos Martinez time in the Cardinals’ rotation?
Mar 30, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
He posted a 3.33 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres in a limited role, logging a total of just 54 innings with a 51/33 K/BB ratio.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:07 PM EDT
Service time manipulation, the depth chart and hacktastic tendencies mean that the future is not quite here for three of the Cubs’ top prospects.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
Maholm has indicated that he wants to continue starting, which likely sealed his fate in Cincinnati and limits his options going forward.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Baseball technically has a rule against “fraternization.” It’s a dumb rule.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:04 PM EDT
New regime, different results?
Mar 30, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Mar 30, 2015, 11:35 AM EDT
Daily Fantasy Sports is not, legally speaking, gambling. But it is somewhat surprising to see Major League Baseball taking a stake in it.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
He’s owed $5.3 million for 2015 and is also under team control for 2016 via arbitration.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Looks like the end of the line for the 38-year-old.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:36 AM EDT
A-Rod’s worst offense yet: not giving the press anything to be offended about.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Perez was a back-to-back All-Star in 2011 and 2012.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:04 AM EDT
What, if anything, will Tony Clark and the MLBPA do about it?
Mar 30, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Leon looks to have the inside track on the Sox’ backup catching gig.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:33 AM EDT
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Blue Jays look like a club that’ll mash the hell out of the ball but have a hard time with run prevention.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:24 AM EDT
The first rule of solutions: make sure you’re employing them to address actual problems.
Mar 29, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Ryan Ludwick didn’t hit much during Cactus League play, resulting in the Rangers releasing him on Sunday.
Mar 29, 2015, 11:20 PM EDT
Nick Martinez beat out the field to win the final spot in the Rangers’ starting rotation.
Mar 29, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
Mike Pelfrey took back his comments about being happy with a trade to a team that would use him as a starter.
Mar 29, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
Ben Revere broke a promise to Rajai Davis when the Phillies’ left fielder robbed a home run.
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