Nov 24, 2013, 12:35 PM EDT
Jhonny Peralta should be a terrible defensive shortstop.
Defensive ability peaks significantly younger than offensive ability, and Peralta wasn’t really any good defensively in what should have been his prime. As a 24-year-old in 2006, he was the game’s second worst shortstop by UZR. In 2007, he was the fifth worst.
By 2008, Peralta graded out better, playing pretty much average defense according to UZR, but the Indians moved him to third base the next year, making room for Asdrubal Cabrera at short. In 2010, the Tigers acquired him and moved him back to short, where he was again average initially. And then a funny thing happened. Here are Peralta’s career UZRs in the seasons in which he played 500 innings shortstop:
In both 2011 and 2012, Peralta rated as the game’s third best shortstop. In 2013, he was 14th.
It’s a pretty amazing turnaround made more complicated by the fact that we know Peralta was at least dabbling in PEDs for a portion of it. The narrative for baseball is that steroids=home runs, even though it’s never made much sense to look at it that way. Sprinters, cyclists and the rest didn’t take to doping to build up their biceps.
We know Peralta isn’t a particularly fast guy. He has 13 career steals in 11 seasons, getting caught 21 times. However, his range ratings have gone from horrible in his mid-20s to above average these last three years. The rest of his game has always been solid: even during his days as a bad shortstop, he was above average when it came to avoiding errors and average at turning the double play. His arm is a strength.
As for the range, well, that can largely come down to positioning. Cal Ripken Jr. wasn’t fast either. Troy Tulowitzki isn’t speedy. Adam Everett and Brendan Ryan, two of the game’s very best shortstops over the last decade, weren’t/aren’t factors on the basepaths.
Peralta has obviously gotten much better at learning where to play hitters through the years. To my eyes, he still looks for all the world to be a below average defensive shortstop. But after three years of UZR saying the opposite, I have more faith in the numbers than in my eyes.
I’m still not a fan of the Cardinals’ reported move to give him $52 million for four years. He’s a cheater, and if nothing else, it adds greater uncertainty to what we can expect from him going forward. Offensively, he was great in his 107 games when he wasn’t serving his steroid ban last year, hitting a career high .303 with a .358 OBP and a .457 slugging percentage. However, it took a ridiculous .374 BABIP to produce that .303 average; he actually had his highest strikeout rate since 2007. His career BABIP is .315, and he figures to come in much closer to there next year, which could result in a .260-.270 average. He’s far from a consistent force:
2009: .254/.316/.375 – .691 OPS
2010: .249/.311/.392 – .703 OPS
2011: .299/.345/.478 – .823 OPS
2012: .239/.305/.384 – .699 OPS
2013: .303/.358/.457 – .815 OPS
Of course, just getting average offense and average defense from shortstop would be a huge upgrade over what the Cardinals have received of late. I wouldn’t expect much more and I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for the back half of that contract, but for 2014, he makes the NL’s best team considerably better.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
He hasn’t played since last Wednesday and now will miss at least the next three games.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
He was on the hot seat back in June. What a difference a couple of months make.
Aug 31, 2015, 3:51 PM EDT
Aug 31, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Ramirez has a nagging shoulder injury.
Aug 31, 2015, 3:10 PM EDT
Actually, the fastest wiener is boring. You want to see the wiener which runs free.
Aug 31, 2015, 1:13 PM EDT
And Buck Showalter is uniquely unimpressed with Fenway Parks dimensions.
Aug 31, 2015, 12:28 PM EDT
Thats one way to do it. Not a way likely to bring success, but certainly one way to do it.
Aug 31, 2015, 12:09 PM EDT
He’s struggling with free agency right around the corner.
Aug 31, 2015, 11:25 AM EDT
The Blue Jays GM said “Steve Tolleson just decided he didn’t want to play anymore.” Tolleson takes strong issue with that.
Aug 31, 2015, 10:21 AM EDT
Terry Collins says it wouldn’t be fair.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
He is in the first year of a four-year, $46 million deal.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:36 AM EDT
He won’t be officially introduced by the Jays until after the season.
Aug 31, 2015, 8:55 AM EDT
It’s no surprise that Mark Shapiro felt that bolting to Toronto was a good idea
Aug 31, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Jake Arrieta looked great last night. At least during his no-hitter. Afterward? Well, at least he looked comfortable.
Aug 30, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Giancarlo Stanton is getting close to returning to the Marlins. He’s slated to begin a rehab stint on Tuesday.
Aug 30, 2015, 11:31 PM EDT
Jake Arrieta struck out Chase Utley to complete his first career no-hitter.
Aug 30, 2015, 11:14 PM EDT
Jake Arrieta made history on Sunday night, tossing a no-hitter against the Dodgers.
Aug 30, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Aaron Harang wasn’t claimed when the Phillies put him on waivers, so any team can try and negotiate a trade if they’re desperate for rotation help.
Aug 30, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
The Padres got Chris Rearick back, claiming him off waivers from the Rangers on Sunday.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:51 PM EDT
The Blue Jays are expected to name Mark Shapiro as the new team president.
- Unknown Cuban ballplayer sleeps outside of Dodger Stadium, hoping for a tryout 28
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 72
- Jake Arrieta no-hits the Dodgers with 12 strikeouts 32
- Blue Jays will name Mark Shapiro as the new team president 31
- Lance Lynn expects to make next scheduled start despite suffering ankle injury Saturday 2
- Cubs expected to call up Javier Baez on September 1 6
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 13
- A fan died at Turner Field after falling from the upper deck 64
- Sarah Palin sticks up for Curt Schilling, tells ESPN to “stick to sports” (266)
- Dan Patrick: When does ESPN cut ties with Curt Schilling? (201)
- Curt Schilling taken off of Little League World Series duty for making a really bad tweet (170)
- Curt Schilling taken off of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast this week (134)
- Phillies announcer calls Mets fans “obnoxious” (123)