Nov 24, 2013, 6:05 PM EST
As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.
It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.
The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?
Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.
McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:10 AM EST
Boston is competing with San Francisco and San Diego for Sandoval.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:55 PM EST
The Mariners get an extra year to do whatever they want with Danny Hultzen.
Nov 21, 2014, 9:45 PM EST
If the Yankees can’t bring back David Robertson, Jason Grilli could be one option the club could look at.
Nov 21, 2014, 8:40 PM EST
The Orioles bolstered their organizational depth by signing Paul Janish on Friday.
Nov 21, 2014, 7:35 PM EST
The White Sox have signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million deal.
Nov 21, 2014, 7:05 PM EST
The interest in free agent outfielder Torii Hunter has been lukewarm, but he represents a decent Plan B or C for a handful of teams.
Nov 21, 2014, 6:15 PM EST
Andrew Miller is drawing significant interest in the free agent market, and he could even fetch a four-year deal.
Nov 21, 2014, 5:21 PM EST
Wakamatsu, Cash and Ibanez are the finalists.
Nov 21, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
Can you see that happening? I have a hard time seeing that happen.
Nov 21, 2014, 3:10 PM EST
Joyce has been a productive regular for the Rays since 2010.
Nov 21, 2014, 2:34 PM EST
It was attached to a motion filed in court yesterday. Let us gawk at it, shall we?
Nov 21, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
She’s just the third woman at the level of vice president or above in baseball operations in major league baseball.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:49 AM EST
And they want a lot for him.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:32 AM EST
Talks haven’t really heated up yet, but catching is scarce so someone will likely go in on Montero.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:20 AM EST
Throwing problems forced a move away from third base.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:03 AM EST
It’s his fourth straight year helping homeless charities.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:47 AM EST
Pittsburgh has done great work recently turning around the careers of pitchers.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
Not that that necessarily means anything.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
Gutierrez posted a 3.96 ERA and 44/16 K/BB ratio in 64 innings.
Nov 21, 2014, 9:51 AM EST
Charges were dismissed against him in August. It now appears he’s heading for trial.
- White Sox sign Adam LaRoche to two-year, $25 million deal 27
- Report: Red Sox offer Jon Lester six years, $110-120 million 70
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” 130
- A’s sign Billy Butler to three-year, $30 million contract 84
- Cardinals reportedly joining pursuit of Jon Lester 65
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. 148
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal 157
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal 135
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal (157)
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. (148)
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal (135)
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” (130)
- Sexual assualt charges reinstated against Tigers pitcher Evan Reed (125)