Nov 24, 2013, 6:05 PM EDT
As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.
It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.
The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?
Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.
McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.
Apr 19, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Who can stop Nelson Cruz?
Apr 19, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Travis d’Arnaud suffered a fractured hand in Sunday’s game against the Marlins, so the Mets promoted prospect Kevin Plawecki.
Apr 19, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
More Athletics/Royals drama unfolded on Sunday.
Apr 19, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
White Sox pitching prospect Carlos Rodon is expected to be promoted on Monday.
Apr 19, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
A’s right-hander Jesse Hahn made an early exit from his start Saturday against the Royals with a blister on his pitching hand and it sounds like he may miss a turn in Oakland’s rotation.
Apr 19, 2015, 4:53 PM EDT
“Counting games in St. Louis since the start of the 2003 season, the Reds are 3-29-2 in series against the Cardinals.”
Apr 19, 2015, 4:17 PM EDT
The 26-year-old d’Arnaud had a terrific second half last season for New York and he was off to a very promising start in 2015, hitting .317/.356/.537 with two home runs and 10 RBI in 11 games played.
Apr 19, 2015, 4:01 PM EDT
Brutal news here for the NL East-leading Mets.
Apr 19, 2015, 3:34 PM EDT
Jon Lester appears to have found a solution for his problems making throws to first base …
Apr 19, 2015, 2:52 PM EDT
And why should it?
Apr 19, 2015, 2:05 PM EDT
There’s so much gold in this new Red Bull spot for Cubs rookie third baseman Kris Bryant …
Apr 19, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
Puig, who boasts an .886 through 34 plate appearances, is considered day-to-day.
Apr 19, 2015, 12:41 PM EDT
Carrasco was lucky to avoid a serious injury. These reschedulings seem to be completely precautionary.
Apr 19, 2015, 11:57 AM EDT
Span underwent surgery for a sports hernia in December and then needed a followup procedure for a core muscle injury in early March.
Apr 19, 2015, 11:04 AM EDT
It’s been a rough first couple of weeks for the 2015 Giants, who sit in last place in the National League West with a record of 4-9 and a -21 run differential. But they got to do some celebrating Saturday night …
Apr 19, 2015, 10:18 AM EDT
This will be the first start for Richards since he tore the patellar tendon in his left knee last August in Boston.
Apr 19, 2015, 9:25 AM EDT
Jason Heyward hit his first home run as a member of the Cardinals on Saturday in St. Louis …
Apr 19, 2015, 8:33 AM EDT
Mark down seven straight wins for the Mets, who will try for a four-game Citi Field sweep of the Marlins on Sunday afternoon behind staff ace Matt Harvey.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:26 PM EDT
Grant Balfour was designated for assignment following a disastrous Saturday night against the Yankees.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:01 PM EDT
Joe Nathan could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Wednesday.
- Five Royals ejected in Sunday’s series finale against the Athletics 24
- White Sox will promote Carlos Rodon on Monday 5
- Another one bites the dust: Mets lose young catcher Travis d’Arnaud to fractured right hand 10
- National League GM says Phillies’ asking price for Cole Hamels hasn’t dropped “one bit” 11
- Giants receive their 2014 World Series championship rings 20
- Angels activate Garrett Richards for Sunday debut 2
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 38
- Video: Watch Kris Bryant get his first major league hit and RBI 12
- “Why Ted Cruz is like the Atlanta Braves” (150)
- “We no longer need the terrorists. We’re now so good at terrorizing ourselves.” (143)
- Another argument in favor of making the DH universal (127)
- When it comes to Josh Hamilton, Arte Moreno is a craven opportunist, not a “smart businessman” (116)