Nov 24, 2013, 6:05 PM EDT
As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.
It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.
The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?
Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.
McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.
Jul 6, 2015, 7:03 AM EDT
Justin Verlander, doing the same things over and over and expecting different results.
Jul 5, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Jake Marisnick isn’t afraid of the Green Monster.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
Hisashi Iwakuma will be activated on Monday. He hasn’t started since April 20.
Jul 5, 2015, 9:35 PM EDT
The Braves designated a pair of veteran relievers for assignment following Sunday’s loss to the Phillies.
Jul 5, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
The pitching-thin Dodgers will call on Eric Surkamp to start on Monday, it appears.
Jul 5, 2015, 7:48 PM EDT
Find out who made the starting rosters for the AL and NL squads in the 2015 All-Star Game. Spoiler: no Omar Infante.
Jul 5, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
The Pirates added some depth, claiming Travis Ishikawa off waivers from the Giants on Sunday.
Jul 5, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Marcell Ozuna has slumped badly over his last 10 games and will try to figure things out at Triple-A.
Jul 5, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Newsday’s David Lennon details how the Mets were close to trading for Manny Ramirez back in 2005.
Jul 5, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
Strasburg suffered the oblique strain Saturday in his start against the Giants. He had thrown 3 2/3 scoreless innings in that outing and was also sharp in his previous two starts since returning from a trapezius injury.
Jul 5, 2015, 3:02 PM EDT
It looks, at first glance, like another smart rebuilding move for the determined-to-rebuild Phils.
Jul 5, 2015, 1:46 PM EDT
Garcia boasts a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven starts (48 innings) this season. He’s missed a ton of time to injuries in his career, but most of the major problems have been elbow- and shoulder-related.
Jul 5, 2015, 12:24 PM EDT
Soler wound up missing over a month with a sprained left ankle.
Jul 5, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Schoop originally landed on the disabled list on April 18 after being diagnosed with both a PCL tear and MCL strain in his left knee.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:32 AM EDT
Check out this wrap-around style montage of all the July 4 action in Major League Baseball …
Jul 5, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
Josh Hamilton has a .954 OPS in 10 games with the Rangers. The problem is he’s only played in 10 games.
Jul 5, 2015, 8:53 AM EDT
The best fireworks on July 4 came from the Angels.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Chi Chi Gonzalez posted good results in his first seven major league starts, but he’ll cede his rotation spot to Matt Harrison and head back to Triple-A.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:20 PM EDT
But not even science could master the knuckleball.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Kris Bryant had a monster night at the plate on Saturday against the Marlins.
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- AL and NL Starters for the 2015 All-Star Game announced 74
- That time Manny Ramirez nearly became a Met 5
- Phillies acquire No. 1 international signing slot for 2015-2016 from the Diamondbacks 17
- Orioles activate Jonathan Schoop after 10-week absence 8
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 40
- Video: Kris Bryant hits a grand slam as part of a two-homer, six-RBI night 8
- Stephen Strasburg exits start with tightness in left side 10
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno (90)
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. (78)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (77)
- AL and NL Starters for the 2015 All-Star Game announced (75)