Nov 24, 2013, 6:05 PM EDT
As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.
It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.
The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?
Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.
McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.
Aug 30, 2014, 4:29 PM EDT
Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez shut down the Jacoby Ellsbury-less Yankees.
Aug 30, 2014, 3:50 PM EDT
The White Sox are reportedly interested in signing Victor Martinez away from a division rival.
Aug 30, 2014, 2:58 PM EDT
Deduno has split this season between the starting rotation and the bullpen, putting up a 4.60 ERA and 74/41 K/BB ratio in 92 innings over eight starts and 22 relief appearances.
Aug 30, 2014, 2:07 PM EDT
Bryce Harper hit one of six home runs for the Nationals last night in an 8-3 victory over the Mariners. In doing so, he joined some impressive company.
Aug 30, 2014, 1:02 PM EDT
It will be his first game action since 2012.
Aug 30, 2014, 12:01 PM EDT
The A’s are calling him day-to-day.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:05 AM EDT
And wouldn’t you know it, it worked.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:01 AM EDT
Ellsbury injured his left ankle on a slide into home plate on Friday night.
Aug 30, 2014, 10:36 AM EDT
Pearce owns a surprising .289/.354/.532 batting line with 16 home runs and 37 RBI over 85 games this season.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
The two homers traveled a combined 858 feet.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:57 AM EDT
A quick recap of a busy Friday around MLB, including an AL West showdown.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Hyun-Jin Ryu will return to the Dodgers’ rotation on Sunday after recovering from a strained glute.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
Eric Campbell stole home against the Phillies, helping the Mets improve to 12-5 against their NL East rival this season.
Aug 29, 2014, 9:42 PM EDT
The injury-ravaged Rangers managed to tie a major league record for all the wrong reasons when they called up Ryan Rua from Triple-A on Friday.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
A day after Bruce Chen allowed six runs in the 10th inning of the Royals’ loss to the Twins on Thursday, the Royals designated the lefty for assignment.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:22 PM EDT
The Mariners have ended Jesus Montero’s season so he can address his “non-baseball issues”, a day after he went after a scout who was heckling him.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
The Mets could be without Daniel Murphy for most or all of the rest of the season, as the second baseman deals with a strained right calf.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:25 PM EDT
Joey Votto hasn’t been progressing as well from his quad injury as the Reds would have liked.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:38 PM EDT
He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth against the Cubs.
Aug 29, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
Whether this will turn into a Michael Young situation or a Derek Jeter situation is an open question.
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- VIDEO: Jorge Soler hits two long home runs in third major league game 20
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 16
- Mariners end Jesus Montero’s season 37
- Troy Tulowitzki says he’ll retire before he switches positions 32
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- Baseball is dying, you guys, because no one would recognize Mike Trout in a bar 73
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- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (75)