Nov 24, 2013, 6:05 PM EDT
As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.
It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.
The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?
Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.
McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.
Sep 1, 2014, 10:09 PM EDT
Bailey is currently deciding whether to undergo surgery for a flexor mass strain in his right elbow.
Jorge Soler is third player in last 100 years with an extra-base hit in each of his first five games
Sep 1, 2014, 9:11 PM EDT
Enos Slaughter (1933) and Will Middlebrooks (2012) are the only others.
Sep 1, 2014, 8:12 PM EDT
Acquired from the White Sox on Sunday, Adam Dunn made an instant impact in his A’s debut this afternoon.
Sep 1, 2014, 7:21 PM EDT
Franco got off to a slow start this season, but he has been on a tear in Triple-A since the start of July.
Sep 1, 2014, 6:31 PM EDT
The Brewers have had at least a share of first place since April 4.
Sep 1, 2014, 5:15 PM EDT
The Pacific Coast League MVP is on his way to L.A.
Sep 1, 2014, 4:21 PM EDT
Four pitchers, led by Cole Hamels, who handled six innings of it, combined to no-hit the Atlanta Braves.
Sep 1, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
It sounds like Manny is a changed man
Sep 1, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
As the Marlins’ playoff chances fade.
Sep 1, 2014, 1:44 PM EDT
He was already unofficially shut down. Now it’s all official-like.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:38 PM EDT
Reports of strife between Porter and the front office were apparently right on the nose.
Sep 1, 2014, 11:40 AM EDT
Old Hoss Radbourn is an amateur.
Sep 1, 2014, 10:51 AM EDT
The Brewers are tied for first place and need a boost.
Sep 1, 2014, 10:17 AM EDT
Maybe Yost should just tell Royals fans the exact number of people he needs in the seats for his team to play at its best.
Sep 1, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
The A’s were, quite recently, the best team in baseball. Now they’re five back of the Angels.
Sep 1, 2014, 8:45 AM EDT
Well, it’s not his (or his estate’s) house anymore. Likely wasn’t for decades. But if someone wants Jon Voight’s LeBaron, someone will probably buy this, right?
Sep 1, 2014, 6:00 AM EDT
And part of the reason for this reminder is that, while Major League Baseball sees fit to commemorate most other holidays that occur during the baseball season, it has always given Labor Day short shrift.
Aug 31, 2014, 11:35 PM EDT
The Blue Jays added an outfield bench bat, picking up John Mayberry, Jr. from the Phillies on Sunday.
Aug 31, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
The Brewers tried but ultimately failed to acquire David Price from the Rays in July because they refused to part with pitcher Jimmy Nelson.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
Bryce Harper entered August with numbers far below expectations. He’ll enter September with much better-looking stats thanks to a decent showing in August, including a spectacular finish on Sunday.
- The Cardinals have moved ahead of the Brewers for first place in the National League Central 14
- No-hitter! Four Phillies pitchers combine to blank the Braves 54
- Bo Porter fired by the Astros 52
- Settling the Score: Sunday’s results — and a reminder of what Labor Day is all about 46
- Reds trade setup man Jonathan Broxton to the Brewers 17
- Miguel Cabrera sits Sunday with nagging ankle injury 13
- A’s acquire veteran slugger Adam Dunn from the White Sox 54
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 18
- Could women play major league baseball? Sure. Right now, though, the deck is stacked against them. (220)
- Albert Pujols plays the “you never played the game!” card (104)
- Great Moments in Drug Testing and Punishment: The NFL Edition (101)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (75)
- Baseball is dying, you guys, because no one would recognize Mike Trout in a bar (74)