Nov 29, 2013, 12:32 PM EDT
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun asks whether Rafael Palmeiro is going to fall off the Hall of Fame ballot. And he lands where I land: probably.
As Connolly notes, Palmeiro’s support in his three years on the ballot is not trending in a good direction for him. In his first year of eligibility he was named on 11 percent of the ballots. In his second he actually ticked up to 12.6 percent. Last year, however, he was down to 8.8 percent. And this year at least three likely inductees — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas — join the ballot. Even those voters sympathetic to Mr. Palmeiro are going to run out of room on their ballots eventually, and my guess is that he’ll fall below the 5 percent requirement to stay on following this year’s vote.
Which will be kinda weird for a guy who finished above 500 homers and 3,000 hits while playing a nifty first base before switching to DH. But two forces are conspiring to, quite understandably, shove him off the ballot.
The first one is obvious. Palmeiro was the first famous flunker of a PED test. While that may not one day be the Hall of Fame Death sentence it is today, being a trailblazer in this department is not a good thing, and that would be the case even if he didn’t wag his finger at Congress while proclaiming he was clean just prior to failing the drug test.
But the second reason is just as significant: PEDs aside, Palmeiro doesn’t necessarily profile as a fantastic Hall of Fame candidate compared to his peers.
Yes, he has the big numbers, and I think absent the PED stuff no one would be arguing that they weren’t Hall of Fame worthy. But think about how stacked first base was during his career. Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas were clearly better. Mark McGwire was more famous and, in the minds of most, better. Palmeiro made just four All-Star teams and finished in the top 5 in MVP balloting just once. That’s still a heck of a career, but it speaks to a guy who wasn’t thought of as the best or even one of the handful of best players in the league most of his career. Add in his mostly hitter-friendly home ballparks and you could construct an argument that his numbers were more inflated by the era in which he played than a lot of guys.
I’m not saying it’s a strong argument. Looking at Palmeiro’s splits you see that he wasn’t as aided by those hitter-friendly parks in Texas and Baltimore as you might first suspect. And while he didn’t have the top-five finishes he had several top-10s. And while he wouldn’t be in the top half of all of the first basemen ever inducted into the Hall of Fame based on the numbers, he wouldn’t be the worst first basemen ever inducted either.
So, not a slam dunk no for Palmeiro, but it’s enough of an argument where, even if you don’t think that a positive PED test disqualifies someone from Hall of Fame consideration, you can say that in a tough balloting environment he’s one of the guys who don’t make your 10-player cut, 500 homers and 3,000 hits or not. In my Hall of Fame list he doesn’t make the top 10, even if I would have him in the Hall of Fame in an ideal world. And if we play the “this guy should go in before that guy” game Bagwell, Thomas and McGwire all seem like better first base choices than does Palmeiro.
Just a perfect storm blowing in Palmerio’s face, really. And because of it this will likely be the last year that Hall of Fame voters get a chance to consider his likely doomed candidacy.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Let Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki tell you how being a free agent is like being a puppy in a pet shop.
Mar 28, 2015, 10:35 PM EDT
Promising Mariners pitching prospect Victor Sanchez died on Saturday night after he was involved in an unfortunate boating accident in February.
Mar 28, 2015, 10:10 PM EDT
Outfielder Nate Schierholtz is a free agent again, opting out of his contract with the Rangers after a disappointing spring showing.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
Two baseball superstars put their talented display in spring training action on Saturday afternoon.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
More shoulder problems for Jaime Garcia, who has made 16 combined starts since the beginning of the 2013 season.
Mar 28, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
Shane Victorino didn’t like the way a pair of radio personalities in Boston interpreted his desire to see the Red Sox acquire Cole Hamels from the Phillies.
Mar 28, 2015, 6:25 PM EDT
Giants minor league catcher Matt Paré discussed the thrifty lifestyles minor league players are forced into.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
Rodriguez is now batting .306 (11-for-36) with three home runs, a double and a .925 OPS across 15 games this spring.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Lucas Duda is coming off a breakout year with the Mets and the two sides are now discussing a contract extension.
Mar 28, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT
Gregorius injured his wrist Saturday while trying to dive for a ground ball in the second inning.
Mar 28, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Doubront really struggled during Cactus League action, allowing nine runs on 17 hits (including two home runs) in seven innings across four appearances.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:51 PM EDT
Freeman owns a 3.33 ERA with a 61/34 K/BB ratio over 70 1/3 innings in the majors.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
The Orioles will already be without Matt Wieters on Opening Day as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery and now suddenly J.J. Hardy’s status is also in question.
Mar 28, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT
Lindstrom, who was in camp this spring on a minor league contract, posted an ugly 11.12 ERA and 5/4 K/BB ratio over 5 2/3 innings during Cactus League action.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Thorpe, 19, owns a 2.80 ERA and 179/54 K/BB ratio over his first 157 2/3 innings in pro ball.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Yordano Ventura was recently named as the Royals’ Opening Day starter and he had a heck of a tuneup in his latest Cactus League outing last night.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:01 AM EDT
Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon said last month that he would be interested in a trade to the Blue Jays and it appears that the possibility might still have some legs.
Mar 28, 2015, 10:11 AM EDT
Pelfrey owns an ugly 5.56 ERA in 34 starts dating back to 2013.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
An MRI showed “something” in Christian Vazquez’s right elbow.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:57 AM EDT
This isn’t what you want to hear with the start of the season just one week away.
- Mariners prospect Victor Sanchez has died 7
- 2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox 15
- Did David Ortiz admit to more than he realized with his Players’ Tribune editorial? 81
- 2015 Preview: Atlanta Braves 15
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” 115
- 2015 Preview: Chicago Cubs 14
- Unsigned 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken undergoes Tommy John surgery 61
- 2015 Preview: Seattle Mariners 15
- David Ortiz: “Nobody in MLB history has been tested for PEDs more than me” (118)
- Ex-Cardinals outfielder Curt Ford was assaulted in St. Louis and told to “go back to Ferguson” (116)
- College baseball player cut after making offensive tweet about Mo’ne Davis (115)
- Rob Manfred says it would be hard to reinstate Pete Rose in a limited way (89)
- Mo’ne Davis says college ballplayer who wrote an offensive tweet about her deserves a second chance (88)