Nov 29, 2013, 12:32 PM EDT
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun asks whether Rafael Palmeiro is going to fall off the Hall of Fame ballot. And he lands where I land: probably.
As Connolly notes, Palmeiro’s support in his three years on the ballot is not trending in a good direction for him. In his first year of eligibility he was named on 11 percent of the ballots. In his second he actually ticked up to 12.6 percent. Last year, however, he was down to 8.8 percent. And this year at least three likely inductees — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas — join the ballot. Even those voters sympathetic to Mr. Palmeiro are going to run out of room on their ballots eventually, and my guess is that he’ll fall below the 5 percent requirement to stay on following this year’s vote.
Which will be kinda weird for a guy who finished above 500 homers and 3,000 hits while playing a nifty first base before switching to DH. But two forces are conspiring to, quite understandably, shove him off the ballot.
The first one is obvious. Palmeiro was the first famous flunker of a PED test. While that may not one day be the Hall of Fame Death sentence it is today, being a trailblazer in this department is not a good thing, and that would be the case even if he didn’t wag his finger at Congress while proclaiming he was clean just prior to failing the drug test.
But the second reason is just as significant: PEDs aside, Palmeiro doesn’t necessarily profile as a fantastic Hall of Fame candidate compared to his peers.
Yes, he has the big numbers, and I think absent the PED stuff no one would be arguing that they weren’t Hall of Fame worthy. But think about how stacked first base was during his career. Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas were clearly better. Mark McGwire was more famous and, in the minds of most, better. Palmeiro made just four All-Star teams and finished in the top 5 in MVP balloting just once. That’s still a heck of a career, but it speaks to a guy who wasn’t thought of as the best or even one of the handful of best players in the league most of his career. Add in his mostly hitter-friendly home ballparks and you could construct an argument that his numbers were more inflated by the era in which he played than a lot of guys.
I’m not saying it’s a strong argument. Looking at Palmeiro’s splits you see that he wasn’t as aided by those hitter-friendly parks in Texas and Baltimore as you might first suspect. And while he didn’t have the top-five finishes he had several top-10s. And while he wouldn’t be in the top half of all of the first basemen ever inducted into the Hall of Fame based on the numbers, he wouldn’t be the worst first basemen ever inducted either.
So, not a slam dunk no for Palmeiro, but it’s enough of an argument where, even if you don’t think that a positive PED test disqualifies someone from Hall of Fame consideration, you can say that in a tough balloting environment he’s one of the guys who don’t make your 10-player cut, 500 homers and 3,000 hits or not. In my Hall of Fame list he doesn’t make the top 10, even if I would have him in the Hall of Fame in an ideal world. And if we play the “this guy should go in before that guy” game Bagwell, Thomas and McGwire all seem like better first base choices than does Palmeiro.
Just a perfect storm blowing in Palmerio’s face, really. And because of it this will likely be the last year that Hall of Fame voters get a chance to consider his likely doomed candidacy.
May 28, 2015, 8:22 PM EDT
Kazmir left his start yesterday against the Tigers after three innings with shoulder tightness, but it sounds like he might not have to miss much time.
May 28, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Tanaka has been sidelined since April 23 due to a right forearm strain and right wrist tendinitis.
May 28, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
The 39-year-old Ortiz has just one hit in his last 20 at-bats and is batting an uncharacteristic .216/.303/.377 with six home runs and 18 RBI across his first 43 games this season.
May 28, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The Indians placed Santana on the paternity leave list Thursday following the birth of his daughter.
May 28, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT
Nava has struggled all season, hitting just .159 with zero homers.
May 28, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Michael Taylor suddenly has a full-time job.
May 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Seven and two-thirds innings, 12 strikeouts and nothin’ else doin’.
May 28, 2015, 2:37 PM EDT
Great Moments in . . . wah?
May 28, 2015, 12:50 PM EDT
Kingham cracked top-100 prospect lists last season and this season.
May 28, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
Jay has been out since May 10 with a wrist injury.
May 28, 2015, 11:53 AM EDT
I don’t do requests and even if I did, I would’t do Rush requests. But you all have broken me down.
May 28, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
“I have nothing to complain about.”
May 28, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
He just opted out of his deal with Tampa Bay.
May 28, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
“He could be anywhere.”
May 28, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
Where is the asterisk-applying crowd when you need ’em?
May 28, 2015, 9:19 AM EDT
In other news, Taco Bell restaurants in Southern League towns are experiencing record sales.
The Marlins considered hiring Dusty Baker, Ron Washington and Ozzie Guillen (!) before going with Dan Jennings
May 28, 2015, 8:38 AM EDT
But how seriously were they really considered?
May 28, 2015, 7:28 AM EDT
Noah Syndergaard did it all.
May 27, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
Reds ace Johnny Cueto was scratched from a start last week after experiencing stiffness in his right elbow, but an MRI taken Tuesday afternoon came up clean …
May 27, 2015, 10:14 PM EDT
Harper has slugged 13 home runs over his last 19 games.
- Alex Rodriguez is the all-time AL RBI champion. Sorta. 74
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 82
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak: Matt Adams out 3-4 months, possibly the year, with torn quad 60
- Bryce Harper leads in the first round of National League All-Star voting 29
- Buster Olney: The Marlins should hire A-Rod to be their next manager 53
- Breaking down the Braves-Dodgers trade 20
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 34
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 11