Dec 4, 2013, 10:47 AM EDT
These huge, later-career deals never turn out great. The best you can hope for when you sign a 30-something baseball player to a hugely expensive long-term deal is that he will have a couple of good years on the front end to boost up his value, have a nice rebound year somewhere in the middle, and not be utterly useless and difficult to deal with at the end.
You can go down the list of players signed longterm after the age of 30 – Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Ryan Howard, Jason Giambi, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, on and on — and you will find, over and over, deals that teams regretted t some point or other.
So the Yankees will inevitably regret signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million deal — the real question is when. If they don’t regret the deal until 2018 or 2019 — when Ellsbury is a 35-year old coming to the end of his deal, struggling to stay in center field, constantly battling some nagging injuries — then you would have to say that they should feel pretty good about things. The trouble with these deals is that the regret often happens much earlier than you expect. I’m sure the Angels KNEW they were going to regret the Josh Hamilton deal at some point. I just don’t think they expected it to be the first year.
Ellsbury, when healthy, is a fabulous baseball player. I’ve seen him compared pretty often with Carl Crawford, and Crawford was pretty great as a young player. But I think Ellsbury is an even better player than Crawford was in Tampa Bay. For one thing, he plays centerfield while Crawford played left. They were both superior defenders, but a superb center fielder is quite a bit more valuable than a superb left fielder. Ellsbury also gets on base more and might even be a more potent base stealer (last year, Ellsbury stole 52 bases and was caught just four times all year — Crawford led the league in steals annually but would get thrown out a bit more).
Also, Crawford never had a season like Ellsbury’s 2011, when he hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 homers, 105 runs scored, 119 RBIs and 39 stolen bases (though that year he was caught a lot — 15 times).
Then again Crawford was also much more durable than Ellsbury. From 2003 to 2010, Crawford played 140-plus games every year but one, and even in the year he was hampered by injuries he played 109 games. Ellsbury meanwhile has had two of the last four seasons destroyed by injuries — he played just 18 games in 2010, just 74 games in 2012. Nobody can say if those injuries project anything for the future but they are part of his history.
The Yankees have so much money — and so much money on the line — they figure he’s worth the risk. I can see their point. If the Royals or Mariners or Brewers or some team like that had given Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal, you could say without any hesitation that they had lost their minds. That’s exactly the sort of deal that can paralyze a smaller franchise for a half-decade.
But the Yankees are a different category. The Yankees in that too-big-to-fail category — they have money on top of money, and they are constantly aware that if they put a losing and uninteresting team on the field, everything crashes. Nobody buys their absurdly high-priced tickets. Fewer people watch their cash cow Yes Network. The back page of the Post and Daily News looks elsewhere. The Yankees brand — the most lucrative in America — starts to devalue a little bit and then a little bit more and … they just can’t let that happen. Money, they have. Wins, they need.
And so the Yankees are playing a different game. If they get even one superstar year and maybe a couple of good years from Ellsbury, they will probably be pretty happy.
How good a bet is Ellsbury to have one more season like he did in 2011? I’m not sure. That was an unusual power surge from a player who has never hit double-digit homers any other year. Then again, that’s a very short porch in right field at New Yankee Stadium.
Truth is, we can spend a lot of time trying to compare Ellsbury to other players — his Baseball Reference comps of Phil Bradley, Tony Gonzalez and Roberto Kelly do not strike an encouraging note — but it’s hard to find many players like Ellsbury in baseball history. He stole 70 bases in a season. He hit 30 home runs in a season. There’s only one other player in baseball history who pulled off those two feats in a career, Eric Davis. And he had a rebirth in his mid-30s, even while battling colon cancer.
My gut instinct is that it will work out for the Yankees. But I say this in part because things always seem to work out for the Yankees.
I can say this with more confidence: If the Mariners sign Robinson Cano … that won’t work out.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:28 AM EDT
One of baseball’s top analysts advocates for one of the dumber ideas you’ll hear in a long while.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
Zimmerman has missed 44 games this year. He’s about to miss more.
Jul 23, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
Off the plane a half hour before game time, the hero by midnight.
Jul 23, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
A seven nation army couldn’t cheer him up.
Jul 23, 2014, 7:17 AM EDT
Jonathan Lucory hit two homers last night, including the walkoff.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:24 PM EDT
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter made a little more history on Tuesday night against the Rangers …
Jul 22, 2014, 9:37 PM EDT
Casey McGehee entered play on Tuesday evening with a batting average (.322) that is 54 points above his career mean (.268) and an RBI total (56) that ranks ninth in the National League. The 31-year-old third baseman fits the mold of a sell-high candidate. But it doesn’t sound like he’s going to be moved.
Jul 22, 2014, 8:41 PM EDT
Watch as Rangers outfielder Leonys Martin leaps above the right-center field wall at Yankee Stadium to rob Brian McCann of a home run in the bottom of the second inning Tuesday night …
Jul 22, 2014, 7:53 PM EDT
Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker will be called back up from Triple-A Tacoma to start Wednesday night against the Mets at Seattle’s Safeco Field.
Jul 22, 2014, 7:08 PM EDT
Oscar Taveras has started just two of the Cardinals’ last seven games and the left-handed-hitting outfield prospect is not in St. Louis’ starting lineup on Tuesday night against Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi. Getting the nod instead is the right-handed-hitting Allen Craig. What’s the deal?
Jul 22, 2014, 6:14 PM EDT
According to Brian Stull of CBS Sports 920, left-handed reliever Kevin Siegrist joined back up with the Cardinals on Tuesday in St. Louis and is expected to be activated from the disabled list on Wednesday.
Jul 22, 2014, 5:27 PM EDT
Troy Tulowitzki exited Saturday’s game with what the Rockies called a “cramp” in his quadriceps, but now the star shortstop is out of the lineup tonight for the third consecutive game and it’s clear the injury is more serious.
Jul 22, 2014, 5:15 PM EDT
Could be cool?
Jul 22, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
A’s outfielder Josh Reddick is off the disabled list after missing all but one week of the past two months with knee problems.
Jul 22, 2014, 4:31 PM EDT
Apparently, one does not ask Kirk Gibson about the decisions he and his coaching staff make about on-the-field decisions.
Jul 22, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
At this point the Rangers’ injury situation is absurd.
Jul 22, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
After a bit of a dance, it seems like the early favorite to take over for Bud Selig is the favorite when it really matters.
Jul 22, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Darwin Barney logged 500-plus plate appearances for the Cubs each season from 2011-2013 and was the Opening Day second baseman this year, but today he was designated for assignment to make roster room for Emilio Bonifacio’s return from the disabled list.
Jul 22, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
Justin Masterson tossed five innings in a minor-league rehab start Sunday, but rather than welcoming him back from the disabled list the Indians will have the right-hander make another rehab start.
Jul 22, 2014, 2:05 PM EDT
The softer side of Roy Halladay.
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts 0
- Chase Headley plays the hero in his first game in pinstripes 5
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 15
- Rockies place Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list 18
- Rob Manfred “heavily favored” to be Bud Selig’s replacement 29
- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres 108
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 39
- Cliff Lee struggles in first start back from disabled list 15