Dec 4, 2013, 10:47 AM EDT
These huge, later-career deals never turn out great. The best you can hope for when you sign a 30-something baseball player to a hugely expensive long-term deal is that he will have a couple of good years on the front end to boost up his value, have a nice rebound year somewhere in the middle, and not be utterly useless and difficult to deal with at the end.
You can go down the list of players signed longterm after the age of 30 – Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Ryan Howard, Jason Giambi, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, on and on — and you will find, over and over, deals that teams regretted t some point or other.
So the Yankees will inevitably regret signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million deal — the real question is when. If they don’t regret the deal until 2018 or 2019 — when Ellsbury is a 35-year old coming to the end of his deal, struggling to stay in center field, constantly battling some nagging injuries — then you would have to say that they should feel pretty good about things. The trouble with these deals is that the regret often happens much earlier than you expect. I’m sure the Angels KNEW they were going to regret the Josh Hamilton deal at some point. I just don’t think they expected it to be the first year.
Ellsbury, when healthy, is a fabulous baseball player. I’ve seen him compared pretty often with Carl Crawford, and Crawford was pretty great as a young player. But I think Ellsbury is an even better player than Crawford was in Tampa Bay. For one thing, he plays centerfield while Crawford played left. They were both superior defenders, but a superb center fielder is quite a bit more valuable than a superb left fielder. Ellsbury also gets on base more and might even be a more potent base stealer (last year, Ellsbury stole 52 bases and was caught just four times all year — Crawford led the league in steals annually but would get thrown out a bit more).
Also, Crawford never had a season like Ellsbury’s 2011, when he hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 homers, 105 runs scored, 119 RBIs and 39 stolen bases (though that year he was caught a lot — 15 times).
Then again Crawford was also much more durable than Ellsbury. From 2003 to 2010, Crawford played 140-plus games every year but one, and even in the year he was hampered by injuries he played 109 games. Ellsbury meanwhile has had two of the last four seasons destroyed by injuries — he played just 18 games in 2010, just 74 games in 2012. Nobody can say if those injuries project anything for the future but they are part of his history.
The Yankees have so much money — and so much money on the line — they figure he’s worth the risk. I can see their point. If the Royals or Mariners or Brewers or some team like that had given Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal, you could say without any hesitation that they had lost their minds. That’s exactly the sort of deal that can paralyze a smaller franchise for a half-decade.
But the Yankees are a different category. The Yankees in that too-big-to-fail category — they have money on top of money, and they are constantly aware that if they put a losing and uninteresting team on the field, everything crashes. Nobody buys their absurdly high-priced tickets. Fewer people watch their cash cow Yes Network. The back page of the Post and Daily News looks elsewhere. The Yankees brand — the most lucrative in America — starts to devalue a little bit and then a little bit more and … they just can’t let that happen. Money, they have. Wins, they need.
And so the Yankees are playing a different game. If they get even one superstar year and maybe a couple of good years from Ellsbury, they will probably be pretty happy.
How good a bet is Ellsbury to have one more season like he did in 2011? I’m not sure. That was an unusual power surge from a player who has never hit double-digit homers any other year. Then again, that’s a very short porch in right field at New Yankee Stadium.
Truth is, we can spend a lot of time trying to compare Ellsbury to other players — his Baseball Reference comps of Phil Bradley, Tony Gonzalez and Roberto Kelly do not strike an encouraging note — but it’s hard to find many players like Ellsbury in baseball history. He stole 70 bases in a season. He hit 30 home runs in a season. There’s only one other player in baseball history who pulled off those two feats in a career, Eric Davis. And he had a rebirth in his mid-30s, even while battling colon cancer.
My gut instinct is that it will work out for the Yankees. But I say this in part because things always seem to work out for the Yankees.
I can say this with more confidence: If the Mariners sign Robinson Cano … that won’t work out.
Aug 1, 2015, 11:30 PM EDT
The Dodgers aren’t paying much of Bronson Arroyo’s tab at all.
Aug 1, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Struggling lefty reliever Eric O’Flaherty was designated for assignment by the Athletics on Saturday.
Aug 1, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Chad Billingsley will meet with a doctor in L.A. He’s dealing with more elbow problems.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
Lucas Duda doesn’t want to run the bases.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:02 PM EDT
Steven Souza, Jr. was hit by a pitch and suffered a broken hand, so he’ll hit the disabled list for a spell.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Rays lefty Matt Moore will try to fix himself in a low-pressure environment, as the Rays will demote him following Saturday’s poor start against the Red Sox.
Aug 1, 2015, 8:10 PM EDT
Kyle Schwarber is staying in the big leagues when Miguel Montero returns, which is bad news for opposing pitchers.
Aug 1, 2015, 7:19 PM EDT
There’s a shakeup in the Red Sox front office, as Larry Lucchino is stepping down from his role as president and CEO.
Clayton Kershaw blanks the Angels over eight innings, runs consecutive scoreless innings streak to 37
Aug 1, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
Clayton Kershaw is good at baseball, the lefty confirmed on Saturday.
Aug 1, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Matt Harrison has been diagnosed with hypothyroidism. The diagnosis, he hopes, allows him to deal with his various issues, including his back problems.
Aug 1, 2015, 5:29 PM EDT
The second-place Mets have been without Wright since mid-April.
Aug 1, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Saturday’s game marks the first time in MLB history that two reigning MVPs have squared off against each other.
Aug 1, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
Davis hadn’t allowed a home run since August 24, 2013.
Aug 1, 2015, 3:26 PM EDT
Rogers made 18 appearances with the Yankees earlier this season, but now he’s headed to the Korea Baseball Organization.
Aug 1, 2015, 2:41 PM EDT
The speedy outfielder has made a good first impression in his Blue Jays debut.
Aug 1, 2015, 2:25 PM EDT
Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper was ejected from Friday’s game against the Mets in the top of the 11th inning after arguing balls and strikes with home plate umpire Jerry Meals.
Aug 1, 2015, 1:42 PM EDT
Wilson has a 3.89 ERA and 110/46 K/BB ratio in 132 innings over 21 starts this season, but the Angels will likely have to make due without him the rest of the way.
Aug 1, 2015, 1:19 PM EDT
Wheeler, who was part of Wednesday’s failed Carlos Gomez deal, reached out to Mets GM Sandy Alderson to express his desire to stay with the team.
Aug 1, 2015, 12:35 PM EDT
Kennedy pitched seven innings against the Marlins after watching the birth of his daughter.
Aug 1, 2015, 10:41 AM EDT
Danny Valencia is batting .296/.331/.506 with seven home runs and 29 RBI over 58 games this season, but the Blue Jays cut him loose Saturday.
- Lucas Duda’s last eight hits have been home runs 7
- Report: Larry Lucchino stepping down as president and CEO of the Red Sox 22
- Clayton Kershaw blanks the Angels over eight innings, runs consecutive scoreless innings streak to 37 13
- Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout make MLB history in Saturday’s matchup 12
- Matt Williams on Bryce Harper’s ejection: “He needs to stay in the baseball game” 38
- UPDATE: C.J. Wilson needs elbow surgery and will likely miss the rest of the season 12
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 43
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game 186
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (187)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (112)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (90)