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Hall of Fame voting expert: Greg Maddux makes it. No one else does.

Dec 16, 2013, 6:49 AM EDT

Greg Maddux

For over 30 years a man named Bill Deane has been predicting the Hall of Fame vote. He has a nearly 80% success rate in getting the votes right, so that’s pretty good. Last year he successfully predicted that no one would get the requisite 75% from the BBWAA voters. The year before that he was correct in predicting that it would be the Barry Larkin show.

His prediction this year? Greg Maddux. No one else.

Hard to believe that neither Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine nor the close-but-not-quite-last-year pair of Craig Biggio and Jack Morris will make it, but I have learned to (a) pay close attention to Deane’s projections and; (b) to never be surprised at the lunacy of the BBWAA voting pool.

Go read Deane’s predictions and rationale over at Baseball:Past and Present. And bookmark it for a couple weeks from now when we hear how the voting actually goes down.

106 Comments (Feed for Comments)
  1. mayorrobford - Dec 16, 2013 at 5:48 PM

    Why does anyone continue in paying attention to the BBWAA, they have earned our scorn and should be ignored

    • mmeyer3387 - Dec 16, 2013 at 9:54 PM

      Mayorrobford, I agree, these guys act as if they are picking the next pope or someone for saint hood. They often make their own rules. Such as; worrying what others may say if they support certain players, only certain people can go in on the first ballet or afraid that certain players may have used PEDs. They black ball certain players because they don’t like their personalities or the voters had a passed history of personal conflict. I could go on and on. Clearly, there are several guys that should be voted in for this time around if they didn’t apply their made up standards.

  2. Minoring In Baseball - Dec 16, 2013 at 7:59 PM

    Maddux is a sure thing. I’d like to see Morris make, and compared to other in the HOF he should.
    http://minoringinbaseball.com/

  3. dinofrank60 - Dec 17, 2013 at 12:47 AM

    Maddox is in, but these guys find more ways to keep players out of the HOF.

  4. teedraper - Dec 17, 2013 at 3:01 PM

    It’s why the baseball HOF is an epic joke.

  5. drewsylvania - Dec 17, 2013 at 6:48 PM

    In a way, it’s an even bigger joke to put Maddux in, and no one else, than to put no one at all in. I have no reason to think Maddux used, except for the era in which he pitched. But the BBWAA has no reason to think Bagwell, Biggio, etc. used, either.

  6. braxtonrob - Dec 23, 2013 at 6:57 PM

    Bill Deane’s gonna be wrong this year.

    (He better be!)

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