Jan 6, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
There’s nothing else to do between now and Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement other than talk about the weather and I’m already sick of that, so let’s look at another Hall of Fame projection.
We’ve seen Bill Deane’s projection of Greg Maddux and no one else. We’ve been watching Repoz’s Gizmo tracking the public ballots. Now comes The Hardball Times’ Chris Jaffe, who each year projects the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it. He’s made 96 individual candidate predictions since he started doing this and he has been within five percentage points 79 times. His margin for error is 3.5 percent.
This year he thinks four guys are getting above 75 percent — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio. Biggio is only at 76% though, so he’s within Jaffe’s margin of error.
More than just the predictions, however, I think Jaffe’s column is interesting for the conversation of the factors which go into vote totals, ranging from the overall strength of the ballot to dynamics connected with how long each guy has been on the ballot and late-eligibility surges and whatnot. Good stuff.
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- Phillies wanted Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias from Dodgers for Cole Hamels 48
- Matt Cain is going to pay a visit to Dr. Andrews 3
- The Nationals and Orioles dispute over TV money is about to explode 74
- The Red Sox are expected to deal Jon Lester and the Pirates are a “dark horse” 33
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 48
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter passes Carl Yastrzemski for seventh on all-time hits list 68
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence 91
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (201)
- “Caucasians” t-shirts are hot sellers on Canadian Indian reservations (168)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (165)
- Must-click link: sexual depravity — and possibly rape — in the minor leagues (100)
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence (91)