Jan 6, 2014, 9:35 AM EST
There’s nothing else to do between now and Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement other than talk about the weather and I’m already sick of that, so let’s look at another Hall of Fame projection.
We’ve seen Bill Deane’s projection of Greg Maddux and no one else. We’ve been watching Repoz’s Gizmo tracking the public ballots. Now comes The Hardball Times’ Chris Jaffe, who each year projects the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it. He’s made 96 individual candidate predictions since he started doing this and he has been within five percentage points 79 times. His margin for error is 3.5 percent.
This year he thinks four guys are getting above 75 percent — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio. Biggio is only at 76% though, so he’s within Jaffe’s margin of error.
More than just the predictions, however, I think Jaffe’s column is interesting for the conversation of the factors which go into vote totals, ranging from the overall strength of the ballot to dynamics connected with how long each guy has been on the ballot and late-eligibility surges and whatnot. Good stuff.
- So, apparently we’re sweating the Matt Kemp physical now 42
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba 108
- Marlins complete Michael Morse deal: two years, $16 million 18
- Padres, Rays, Mariners discussing trade involving Wil Myers 36
- It is perfectly clear that A-Rod is the Yankees’ DH. At best. So there will be no drama, right? 37
- Dodgers cut Brian Wilson and his $9.5 million salary 53
- Royals and Alex Rios agree to one-year, $11 million contract 16
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. 95
- Baseball’s highest-ranking Hispanic woman employee sues for discrimination (163)
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (117)
- Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, and Astros interested in Phillies’ Cole Hamels (110)
- Jon Lester goes to Cubs for $155 million over six years (99)