Jan 6, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
There’s nothing else to do between now and Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement other than talk about the weather and I’m already sick of that, so let’s look at another Hall of Fame projection.
We’ve seen Bill Deane’s projection of Greg Maddux and no one else. We’ve been watching Repoz’s Gizmo tracking the public ballots. Now comes The Hardball Times’ Chris Jaffe, who each year projects the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it. He’s made 96 individual candidate predictions since he started doing this and he has been within five percentage points 79 times. His margin for error is 3.5 percent.
This year he thinks four guys are getting above 75 percent — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio. Biggio is only at 76% though, so he’s within Jaffe’s margin of error.
More than just the predictions, however, I think Jaffe’s column is interesting for the conversation of the factors which go into vote totals, ranging from the overall strength of the ballot to dynamics connected with how long each guy has been on the ballot and late-eligibility surges and whatnot. Good stuff.
- Clayton Kershaw wins his 20th game of the season 6
- Why are so many people acting like Bryce Harper is a bum? 77
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned 79
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 70
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter hits first home run at Yankee Stadium this season 11
- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife 103
- No, baseball does not need to “announce a domestic violence policy ASAP” 52
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 48
- Geddy Lee’s baseball obsession makes it really hard for me to hate Rush (107)
- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife (103)
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned (88)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (83)
- Umpire ejects jackwagon fan heckling Bryce Harper in Atlanta last night (82)