Jan 6, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT
There’s nothing else to do between now and Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement other than talk about the weather and I’m already sick of that, so let’s look at another Hall of Fame projection.
We’ve seen Bill Deane’s projection of Greg Maddux and no one else. We’ve been watching Repoz’s Gizmo tracking the public ballots. Now comes The Hardball Times’ Chris Jaffe, who each year projects the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it. He’s made 96 individual candidate predictions since he started doing this and he has been within five percentage points 79 times. His margin for error is 3.5 percent.
This year he thinks four guys are getting above 75 percent — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio. Biggio is only at 76% though, so he’s within Jaffe’s margin of error.
More than just the predictions, however, I think Jaffe’s column is interesting for the conversation of the factors which go into vote totals, ranging from the overall strength of the ballot to dynamics connected with how long each guy has been on the ballot and late-eligibility surges and whatnot. Good stuff.
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- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 12
- Tigers acquire closer Joakim Soria from the Rangers 44
- Phillies officials “have contemplated the possibility of paying off” and releasing Ryan Howard 38
- The dizzying intellect of Tom Glavine 20
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts 158
- Chase Headley plays the hero in his first game in pinstripes 33
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 29
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (158)
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- Yankees acquire Chase Headley from Padres (108)
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- David Ortiz passes Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list — is he a Hall of Famer? (92)