Skip to content

Chris Jaffe predicts four Hall of Fame inductees

Jan 6, 2014, 9:35 AM EDT

Cooperstown

There’s nothing else to do between now and Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement other than talk about the weather and I’m already sick of that, so let’s look at another Hall of Fame projection.

We’ve seen Bill Deane’s projection of Greg Maddux and no one else. We’ve been watching Repoz’s Gizmo tracking the public ballots. Now comes The Hardball Times’ Chris Jaffe, who each year projects the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it. He’s made 96 individual candidate predictions since he started doing this and he has been within five percentage points 79 times. His margin for error is 3.5 percent.

This year he thinks four guys are getting above 75 percent — Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio. Biggio is only at 76% though, so he’s within Jaffe’s margin of error.

More than just the predictions, however, I think Jaffe’s column is interesting for the conversation of the factors which go into vote totals, ranging from the overall strength of the ballot to dynamics connected with how long each guy has been on the ballot and late-eligibility surges and whatnot. Good stuff.

Latest Posts
  1. Hisashi Iwakuma cleared to begin rehab assignment

    Apr 18, 2014, 3:32 PM EDT

    iwakuma getty Getty Images

    Out since February with a strained tendon in his middle finger, Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma threw a simulated game today without any problems and has been cleared to begin a minor-league rehab assignment.

  2. HBT Daily: PuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuig

    Apr 18, 2014, 2:28 PM EDT

    HBT Daily Logo

    Also: PuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuigPuig.

  3. Bo Porter to his blundering baserunner: “Do you think you’re invisible?”

    Apr 18, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT

    Bo Porter AP

    Bo Porter does not mince words when a TOOTBLAN happens.

  4. Aroldis Chapman cleared to throw live batting practice

    Apr 18, 2014, 1:45 PM EDT

    Aroldis Chapman AP AP

    Aroldis Chapman’s recovery from facial fractures has progressed to the point that the Reds left-hander has been cleared to throw live batting practice, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

  5. Freddy Garcia close to signing with a team in Asia

    Apr 18, 2014, 1:02 PM EDT

    Freddy Garcia Getty Getty Images

    In which I speculate why Garcia is heading across the ocean. The answer may surprise you! Unless you’ve ever had babies at home before, in which case you’ll go “yep, I woulda too.”

  6. Tracy McGrady made his pitching debut last night

    Apr 18, 2014, 12:23 PM EDT

    Screen Shot 2014-04-18 at 12.20.34 PM

    When you’re as tall as he is, it’s far less than 60’6″ to home plate.

  7. Jose Tabata passes post-concussion tests

    Apr 18, 2014, 11:51 AM EDT

    Pittsburgh Pirates v Cincinnati Reds Getty Images

    Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata left Wednesday’s game after crashing very hard into the wall in Cincinnati while making a tremendous catch and was diagnosed with concussion-like symptoms.

  8. Tanner Scheppers moving into the rotation hasn’t worked for the Rangers

    Apr 18, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT

    Tanner Scheppers Rangers Getty Images

    Tanner Scheppers and his 9.82 ERA may not be long for the Rangers’ rotation.

  9. Brian Matusz makes a special connection with a fan who shares his peanut allergy

    Apr 18, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT

    St. Louis Cardinals v Baltimore Orioles Getty Images

    Over two million Americans have peanut allergies. This story is about two of them.

  10. Joe Nathan is feeling better after a “dead arm” period

    Apr 18, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT

    Joe Nathan Tigers AP

    After a pair of ugly early season outings Tigers closer Joe Nathan talked last week about going through a “dead arm” phase, but now the 39-year-old is feeling much stronger.

  11. Mark Teixeira expected to rejoin the Yankees on Sunday

    Apr 18, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT

    Mark Teixeira AP

    On the disabled list with a strained hamstring, Mark Teixeira got three at-bats in a minor-league rehab game Thursday and is expected to rejoin the Yankees’ lineup Sunday.

  12. Chris Sale has no use for statistics and that’s totally fine

    Apr 18, 2014, 8:47 AM EDT

    Chris Sale Getty Images

    He may not care, but I’m going to write a research report about how you normalize ISPFMLBLSSR for different eras.

  13. The Secret Service was prepared to kill Mr. Met

    Apr 18, 2014, 8:33 AM EDT

    Screen Shot 2014-04-18 at 8.31.33 AM

    If this is true, you’d have to think the Philly Phanatic would have a no-fly zone imposed over him.

  14. And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights

    Apr 18, 2014, 6:47 AM EDT

    Adam Wainwright AP

    Adam Wainwright turned in the latest of several dominant pitching performances around Major League Baseball this week.

  15. Toronto’s bullpen melts down in epic fashion against the Twins

    Apr 17, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT

    Sergio Santos AP AP

    The Twins scored six runs on one hit, eight walks (!) and three wild pitches in the bottom of the eighth inning tonight.

  16. Jonathan Papelbon is tired of talking about his velocity

    Apr 17, 2014, 10:05 PM EDT

    Jonathan Papelbon AP AP

    Jonathan Papelbon had a little more giddy-up on his fastball today, but don’t ask him about it.

  17. Jeremy Jeffress elects free agency

    Apr 17, 2014, 9:31 PM EDT

    Jeremy Jeffress Getty Getty Images

    Jeremy Jeffress turned down a minor league assignment with the Blue Jays and will seek an opportunity elsewhere.

  18. Report: Joel Hanrahan looked “great” during his throwing session today

    Apr 17, 2014, 8:21 PM EDT

    Joel Hanrahan AP

    Lots of teams watched Joel Hanrahan throw today.

Featured video

This was 'the perfect baseball game'
Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. S. Kazmir (5017)
  2. K. Uehara (4359)
  3. T. Wood (3695)
  4. G. Springer (3540)
  5. J. Kubel (3335)
  1. M. Machado (3235)
  2. T. Walker (3055)
  3. H. Rondon (3050)
  4. D. Pedroia (2985)
  5. J. Reyes (2944)