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What to expect over the next five years of Hall of Fame balloting

Jan 10, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT

crystal ball

Don’t look at me like that. There’s literally nothing else going on right now. Anyway:

The great Jay Jaffe — the creator of the JAWS Hall of Fame scoring system which ranks a candidate’s worthiness of induction — takes a look at the potential Hall of Fame ballots over the next five years to see who is coming on board, who is going to be held over and what the odds are for each of them to be inducted as we march forward toward the 2020s.

There are several locks — Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones and, at the end of all of this, Derek Jeter. Assuming he doesn’t hang around another year after 2014. As for the holdovers from the current ballot?

. . .It’s not too hard to envision paths to election for the likes of Piazza, Bagwell, Raines and eventually Schilling, with others such as Mussina and Martinez to follow further on down the line. I don’t see much resolution on Bonds or Clemens, and expect Sheffield and Rodriguez to move along more slowly than their stats would suggest.

Good reading, in no small part for the names of the guys becoming eligible year-by-year. Seeing those very-recently-active players listed will probably make you feel old.

  1. spudchukar - Jan 10, 2014 at 4:34 PM

    Give it a rest!

    • fanofevilempire - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:11 PM

      I’m sure Yogi would let the guys into his Museum, just ask him.

    • natstowngreg - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:56 PM

      Look at all those down-turned thumbs. I shoulda realized that HBT has so many masochists.

  2. medialovesthecowboys - Jan 10, 2014 at 4:53 PM

    NO ONE CARES CRAIG. Come on man you’re making me want to ignore HBT. I’d rather no story than another one of these stories. Jeeeezzzzuzzzz

    • maikoch - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:17 PM

      I suggest you request a full refund of all the money you paid to view this site.

      • raysfan1 - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:31 PM

        And order some cheese to go with the whine.

    • moogro - Jan 11, 2014 at 8:23 AM

      Wamburgers with your french cries.

    • nbjays - Jan 11, 2014 at 8:48 AM

      Your handle suggests you’d be more at home over at PFT anyway. If you decide to ignore HBT, no one here will be overly upset.

  3. shadowcell - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:03 PM

    man Craig how dare you force these poor people to click on the link to this story and leave a comment on it to complain about how much they didn’t want to read it! you monster

    • natstowngreg - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:51 PM

      Yeah, he is a monster! Let’s get him!

      *rummages through closet for torch and pitchfork*

  4. hockeyflow33 - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:20 PM

    I’m guessing complaints and whining are probably at the top of the list.

  5. maikoch - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:38 PM

    Can anyone explain why Ken Griffey and Randy Johnson get a free pass on steroids?

    Johnson had terrible skin and a bad temper–both classic symptoms of steroid use. He had an unusual career pattern–got good very fast at an advanced age, stayed good for a long time after one would expect a decline. Griffey hit a lot of home runs. He played almost every game for a decade, then his body broke down entirely. Both men played for years with at least one known abuser, namely A-Rod. Perhaps more–Bret Boone, for example, if you believe Jose Canseco.

    Now, I personally do not believe this is enough evidence to confirm (or even strongly suggest) steroid use. But it is at least as compelling as the evidence for Piazza or Bagwell or Biggio. So how come none of the steroid police ever mention Griffey or Johnson? Especially Johnson, who wasn’t likable like Griffey.

    • raysfan1 - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:51 PM

      Don’t go putting ideas into Murray Chass’ or Jeff Pearlman’s heads.

    • clemente2 - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:55 PM

      Agree, the inuendo should be spread equally. And Griffey’s injury arc is classic for weightlifters using steriods. So, if we are going after Piazza and Bagwell and whomever, add Griffey and Johnson. (Of course, if you go back and look, the story on Griffey was how little attention he paid to conditioning and the like, so his breakdowns could be placed on that. But, why ruin the narative?)

      • thisdamnbox - Jan 11, 2014 at 3:20 AM

        Please, Junior never lifted a weight in his life…

  6. johnnysoda - Jan 10, 2014 at 5:51 PM

    I would be stunned beyond stunned if Thome wasn’t first ballot in 2018. He’s a no-brainer. I also don’t think Manny will fall off the ballot long after his first year- he’ll likely have McGwire-like vote totals for a while.

    • raysfan1 - Jan 10, 2014 at 6:00 PM

      We’ll see. Thome has the HRs, but some are likely to brand him a one trick pony. The voters are also very impressed with players having won awards that they’ve given out, and he has none. I’d vote for him in a heart beat, and think he will get in; but I also think Jaffe is being optimistic. I bet he has to wait a few years before getting enshrined.

      I agree with Jaffe that Manny will get little support and will likely fall off the ballot within three years. The voters will not forgive the PED suspensions.

      • largebill - Jan 10, 2014 at 6:09 PM

        The only shot for Manny would be if he can catch on with another team for a few at bats to delay his arrival on the ballot. Feelings on PED’s will soften over time, but it will be a while. If he were on next years ballot he would suffer same fate as Palmeiro this year.

    • scoutsaysweitersisabust - Jan 10, 2014 at 6:53 PM

      Thome was a stereotypical stat compiler who only has numbers because he played really well for a very long time. As Biggio told us, that is a very, very bad thing. He wasn’t a gamer, or a gritter. He didn’t have dirt on his pants EVERY SINGLE game. And he has an above average build, which we all know = steroids.

      Are you even paying attention? Geez.

      (Note, the ENTIRE post was sarcastic just in-case someone couldn’t tell.)

      • raysfan1 - Jan 10, 2014 at 7:25 PM

        Except for the parentheses part, your comment could have been made seriously by a number of other frequent posters here.

      • cohnjusack - Jan 10, 2014 at 8:34 PM

        They’ll likely cite his few All-Star appearances and that he didn’t do so great in MVP voting.

        In other news, Jim Thome once posted a 1.122 OPS (197 OPS+). He finished 7th in the MVP voting that year and didn’t make the All-Star team.

    • scoutsaysweitersisabust - Jan 10, 2014 at 6:54 PM

      In all honesty, I don’t see Thome as a first ballot pick. I’m not entirely sure what the ballot will look like in 2018, but just knowing the way people have typically voted in the past, he will take several years at minimum.

  7. scoutsaysweitersisabust - Jan 10, 2014 at 6:49 PM

    Ken Griffey Jr. hit a lot of home runs. + Ken Griffey Jr. was injured at the end of his career. = Ken Griffey Jr. was took STEROIDS from babies and puppies! He will not be allowed into the hallowed halls of the great institution of stand up gentleman that is the Hall of Fame.

    Because….Logic bitches.

    There is your look at the next 5 years of Hall of Fame voting.

    • cohnjusack - Jan 10, 2014 at 8:35 PM

      Don’t forget, a number of people also accuse Cal Ripken of using steroids because he DIDN’T get injured.

      Steroids, the magical drug that can create any criteria imaginable to diminish a player’s accomplishments.

  8. lazlosother - Jan 10, 2014 at 8:44 PM

    Jesus. I attacked the disabled and minorities, I attacked my own teammates. I made up stories about killing people just so folks would think I was even nastier than I was. My career was defined by hate and irrational rage and I made it that way on purpose.

    These pansies want to complain because guys took steroids? If steroids were available when I played I’d have eaten them like popcorn. Barry Bonds my ass, I’d have shown you all some head size.

    Ty Cobb

    P.S. The 50’s, 60’s and 70’s wold like to thank MLB, the MSM and fans for not objecting to amphetamines or coke. It’s always nice when people can separate good clean cheating from bad evil cheating.

    • cardsman - Jan 11, 2014 at 12:29 PM

      you’re an idiot

  9. disgracedfury - Jan 10, 2014 at 10:26 PM

    How is Pedro not a lock? He was ten times a better pitcher than Maddux.

    • cardsman - Jan 11, 2014 at 12:31 PM

      he is a lock. 3000 k’s

  10. foovana - Jan 11, 2014 at 12:08 PM

    How is Mike Piazza even a question? This guy had a 1st ballot career. Mussina? C’mon??

  11. weirdmeat - Jan 11, 2014 at 1:56 PM

    For those still concerned about this year’s voting, my HoF ballot tracker is up to 286 known ballots, or more than half of the total voters.

  12. jcmejialapelota - Jun 14, 2014 at 9:32 PM

    ¿What about Pedro Martinez and Omar Vizquel?

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